Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46

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Science of the Total Environment

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Vulnerability of Vietnam to typhoons: A spatial assessment based on

hazards, exposure and adaptive capacity
Kim-Anh Nguyen a,b,c, Yuei-An Liou a,b,⁎, James P. Terry d,e
a
Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli District, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, ROC
b
Taiwan Group on Earth Observations, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC
c
Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 18 Hoang Quoc Viet Rd., Cau Giay, Hanoi, Viet Nam
d
College of Natural and Health Sciences, Zayed University, P.O. Box 19282, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
e
Steering Group on Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk, International Science Council, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ISC ROAP), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• Assess vulnerability to typhoons based

on hazards, exposure, and adaptive ca- Legend
Vulnerability
pacity Very low
• Improve coping strategies for communi- Low
Medium
ties under threats of typhoons and High
Very high
flooding
• Provide information to stakeholders for Geographical zones
disaster reduction and improved A – North West
B –North Central Mountains
management C – North East
D – Red River Delta
E – Northern Coastal
F – Southern Coastal
G – Central Highlands
H – South East
I – Mekong Delta

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Typhoons have devastating impacts across many Asian countries. Vietnam is presently one of the most disaster-
Received 14 February 2019 prone nations. Typhoons regularly disrupt human lives and livelihoods in various ways and cause significant
Received in revised form 29 March 2019 damage. Making efficient policy decisions to minimize the vulnerability of affected communities is crucial. This
Accepted 5 April 2019
requires a deep understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable to extreme events and natural disas-
Available online 09 April 2019
ters. An appropriate approach is integrating the three dimensions of hazard, exposure and sensitivity, and com-
Editor: Jay Gan munity adaptive capacity. However, the vulnerability and adaptive capacity response to typhoons within
Vietnam is poorly investigated.
Keywords: Here, we develop a conceptual framework that incorporates 21 indicators to identify vulnerability and adaptive ca-
Vulnerability pacity (VAC) using geospatial techniques at regional scales, applied over Vietnam. We find large spatial differences
Adaptation in VAC and are able to identify the top-priority regions that need to enhance their adaptation to typhoons. The
Adaptive capacity Southern Coastal area, South East and Red River Delta demonstrate high and very high vulnerability because of
Disaster risk reduction their physical features and the intensity of typhoons that frequently cross these parts of Vietnam. The lower Mekong
Typhoons
Delta and Northern Coastal areas are vulnerable to typhoon-driven flood threats, in particular where compounded
Natural hazards
by sea-level rise. Our framework successfully identified the spatial distribution and different levels of VAC within ac-
ceptable limits of uncertainty. It can therefore serve as a template to tackle national issues in disaster risk reduction
in Vietnam and assist in the development of suitable mitigation strategies to achieve sustainable outcomes.
© 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.

⁎ Corresponding author at: Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli District, Taoyuan City 32001, Taiwan, ROC.
E-mail address: yueian@csrsr.ncu.edu.tw (Y.-A. Liou).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.069
0048-9697/© 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.
32 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
1. Introduction
1.1. Typhoons in Vietnam
Typhoons are among the most dangerous of the hydro-
meteorological hazards (Lee et al., 2017; Liou et al., 2018, 2019). Devas-
tating losses of life and property around the world each year are the re-
sult. Typhoons are a particular menace in the Asia–Pacific Region (Feng
and Terry, 2012; Gienko and Terry, 2012). Their destructive features of
severe winds, torrential rains, storm surge, floods and landslides can de-
stroy homes and infrastructure, especially at the coast. Agriculture, fish-
ery and tourism sectors are adversely affected. Disturbance of natural
eco-environments (e.g. forests, rivers, coral reefs) can take years to re-
cover (Anttila-Hughes and Hsiang, 2013). Thus, improved understand-
ing of various characteristics of typhoons is important, such as
precipitable water dynamics (Liou and Huang, 2000), induced heavy
rainfall (Lin et al., 2011), cyclone-to-cyclone interactions (Liu et al.,
2015; Liou et al., 2016), and typhoon forecasting (Liou et al., 2019).
Vietnam is one of the most typhoon-prone countries in Asia. With its
long coastline, unique geographical features, and large populations
inhabiting low-lying coastal areas, including the expansive deltas of
the Mekong River and Red River, Vietnam is particularly vulnerable to
the threats of typhoon-driven flooding. Recent analysis by Neumann
et al. (2015) suggested that sea-level rise by the year 2050 could in-
crease the frequency of the 100-year storm surge event. The national di-
saster database of Vietnam (DANA) shows that nearly 15,000 persons
were killed in floods between 1989 and 2015, with on average 550
missing and dead every year (Luu et al., 2017). For example, Typhoon
Kate made landfall in Hai Phong City in September 1955, causing 699
deaths and the destruction of 12,000 homes. Typhoon Cecil struck
Binh Tri Thien in October 1985, increasing water levels by 4 m, which
resulted in 901 fatalities and 69,000 houses destroyed. Typhoon Linda
afflicted Ca Mau Province in November 1997; 2900 people were re-
ported dead or missing, and nearly 3000 marine vessels were sunk
(DWR, 2018).
1.2. Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity (VAC)
The basic concepts of vulerability and adaptive capacity (VAC) are
founded within the sphere of global change research on vulnerability
and resilience (Kasperson and Kasperson, 2001, 2005; Pidgeon et al.,
2003; Janssen and Ostrom, 2006; Polsky et al., 2007; Engle, 2011;
Polsky and Eakin, 2011). Socioeconomic and eco-environmental vulner-
ability to climatic hazards can be reduced by applying a range of options.
Preparedness, prevention and mitigation of impacts are core activities
(UNISDR, 2019), which are influenced by current management, policy
and governance practices at national and local levels (Pielke, 1998;
Williams, 2011). Vulnerability to threats associated with climatic
change (including extreme events) has been garnering increasing at-
tention, as documented in the periodic Assessment Reports of the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a). According to the
IPCC (2001b, p6) “Vulnerability defines the extent to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes. It depends not only on a
system's sensitivity but also on its adaptive capacity”. Vulnerability is
therefore described as a function of three components: hazard, expo-
sure/sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Markovic et al., 2017). Adaptive
capacity can be defined as the ability of a system (society, economy, in-
frastructure) to adjust to external forces (hazards, extreme events), reg-
ulate the negative impacts, cope with the consequences, and take
advantage of any opportunities. Whereas vulnerability is proportional
to exposure and sensitivity, adaptive capacity is inversely proportional
(IPCC, 2007a, 2007b; Reed et al., 2013; Smit and Wandel, 2006).
Investigation and studies of VAC can help to achieve sustainable out-
comes in the face of extreme events in affected regions (Kelly and
Adger, 2000; Schröter et al., 2003; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Chinwendu
et al., 2017). For instance, a conceptual framework proposed by Mileti
and Sorensen (1990) was modified for the Indian context by Sharma
et al. (2009) to assess adaptive capacity (response) to tropical cyclone
warnings on the east coast of India. More recently, Weis et al. (2016)
adapted an assessment framework proposed by Mucke (2012) and
Shepard et al. (2012) for evaluating community vulnerability in
Grenada to flooding by both present-day storms and under possible fu-
ture sea level scenarios using an integrated approach to map adaptive
capacity, sensitivity and exposure.
Here, we consider adaptive capacity as one component of vulnera-
bility. Vulnerability assessments can be performed using various avail-
able templates. Choosing the appropriate framework depends on the
specific concerns (e.g., eco-environmental vulnerability or socioeco-
nomic/human vulnerability), data availability and regional conditions.
Eco-environmental vulnerability assessment identifies priority regions
where natural environments, ecosystems and biophysical systems are
threatened (Smit et al., 2000; Nguyen et al., 2016; Liou et al., 2017). Re-
cent assessment of global eco-environmental vulnerability indicates
that Asia is the most vulnerable region, as driven by natural and
anthrophonic disturbances (Nguyen and Liou, 2019). Assessment of so-
cioeconomic vulnerability focuses more on quantifying physical struc-
tures, economic sectors or affected social communities. It seeks to
define ranges of community adaptive capacity or ‘adaptability’, so that
the levels of potential damages can be estimated and plans designed
to minimize those damages (Kitano, 2002; Berkes et al., 2003; Turner
II et al., 2003; Adger, 2006). In general, vulnerability assessment is a
complex process and is not uniform for different elements, regions or
communities.
1.3. Aims
In the present work, we aim to develop a vulnerability assessment
framework for Vietnam with reference to typhoon hazards. Our focus
concentrates on human sectors. As far as can be determined from the
existing literature, no specialized tool or template framework with
assigned indicators currently exists for comprehensive VAC assessment
in Vietnam. We therefore develop a VAC framework using 21 indicators,
applied across the three domains of hazard, exposure/sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity. The framework is designed to suit other typhoon-
impacted countries in the Asian region. The framework is then used to
evaluate VAC across Vietnam and the findings are visualized. Remote
sensing data and GIS techniques are utilized to derive the required in-
formation for the VAC assessment. GIS is a powerful tool for analyzing,
assessing, overlaying and displaying data on various vulnerability pa-
rameters, and calculating spatial relationships by linking location with
attribute information. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is an effi-
cient tool within GIS for spatial decision making, providing weighting
and ranking to assist in the analysis of a large number of input indica-
tors, which is especially suited to hazard and vulnerability assessment
(Saaty, 2008; Dewan, 2013; Roy and Blaschke, 2015).
VAC analysis for typhoons in Vietnam will be of value in (i) allowing
practitioners and administrators to appreciate the influencing factors at
national and regional scales; (ii) addressing issues of climate-change
adaptation, disaster management and poverty mitigation; and (iii)
guiding new planning and construction activity to mitigate against ty-
phoon impacts. In particular, we are able to identify regions across the
country that need to prioritize vulnerability reduction, such as the Red
River and Mekong River deltas, as well as low-lying Southern Coastal
and Northern Coastal areas.
2. Study area and geographical context
2.1. Climate
Vietnam lies between latitudes 8.42–23.39°N and longitudes
102.15–109.47°E. The country can be divided into tropical and sub-
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
tropical zones, falling into Köppen climate classifications Aw and Cwa in
the south and north, respectively. The entire region is strongly influ-
enced by the East Asian Monsoon. The rainy season occurs during the
boreal summer months, delivering up to 90% of the annual precipitation,
with amounts everywhere in Vietnam exceeding 1,000 mm. Topo-
graphical variations, however, mean that rainfall totals vary from
place to place. In areas of mountains and plateaus, especially facing
the sea, yearly precipitation can exceed 2,000 mm. With their dense hy-
drological networks, the Red River and Thai Binh River in the north of
Vietnam form the large triangular deltaic plain of the Red River Delta,
covering some 15,000 km2. The narrow landmass of central Vietnam
has mountains inland and low plains bordering the coast. Because of
this terrain, river discharges increase rapidly after heavy rainfall. The
far south of the country is dominated by the expansive Mekong Delta,
which extends over an area N40,500 km2.
The conventional typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific (NWP)
basin spans the boreal summer, extending for seven months from May
to November. Storms can sometimes form outside these months. It is es-
timated that about five to six typhoons affect the Vietnamese coastline
every year (Almar et al., 2017), mostly in August and September. The
majority of typhoons that make landfall cross central or northern
Vietnam, moving in from the South China Sea following quasi-linear
tracks along southeast to northwest trajectories (Terry and Feng,
2010). This often means that for northern Vietnam, typhoon tracks
first cross the mountainous island of Hainan (China), so weakening
them. However, occasional systems follow atypical curving tracks up
the Gulf of Tonkin. An example is the infamous ‘Tonkin Typhoon’ of
1881 that claimed some 3000 lives owing to catastrophic storm-surge
flooding of the Red River Delta (Dechevrens, 1882; Terry et al., 2012).
2.2. Population growth
Vietnam's population density of 160 people per km2 in 1979 nearly
doubled to 313 per km2 by 2019 (https://www.prb.org; https://danso.
org/viet-nam/). The steady population increase over 1950–2017 is
shown in Fig. 1. Population density is highest in the Red River Delta
(1136 per km2) and lowest in the northwest of the country (62 per
km2). The pace of urbanization in Vietnam has accelerated in recent de-
cades, in particular since the introduction of Đổi Mới (“renovation”) pol-
icies encouraging economic reforms from the late 1980s onwards.
However, the loss of agricultural land to urban use is causing tension
at the fringe of many cities. Four primary areas are attracting migrants:
the delta cities of Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, the coastal city of Da
Nang, and the Central Highlands region. Ho Chi Minh City for example
Fig. 1. Vietnam's population increase over the timeframe 1950–2017 (source: Dân số Việt Nam, 2019).
33
received a net balance of over 400,000 migrants between 1994 and
1999.
The Vietnam urban classification system, established in 2001 and re-
vised in 2009 with the introduction of Decree No. 42/2009/ND-CP,
serves an important function in urban policy and management. It is a hi-
erarchical system comprising six classes of urban centers that are de-
fined in terms of economic activity, physical development, population,
population density and infrastructure provision. The main regional
and urban features of the classification system are depicted in Fig. 2,
which shows the spatial profile of urban population change between
1999 and 2009. The classification criteria for cities in classes 1 to 5 are
given in Urban Solutions (2011). Fig. 2a reveals that besides Hanoi and
Ho Chi Minh City, the majority of Class-1 cities are located along the
coast. Although there is regional variation in population growth, it is
seen that significant urban population growth has been experienced
in some coastal areas.
3. Methods
3.1. Developing a VAC framework
According to the UNISDR (2019), a hazard is a “process, phenome-
non or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury or other health
impacts, property damage, social and economic disruption or environ-
mental degradation”. Natural hazards are therefore predominantly
caused by natural processes and phenomena. Vulnerability to natural
hazards is the potential to be harmed by such events and can thus be in-
fluenced by many stressors relating to specific hazard characteristics,
but also through anthropogenic activities relating to exposure, sensitiv-
ity and adaptive capacity within a study region. The IPCC (2007a,
2007b) explains vulnerability (in the context of climate change) through
three fundamental concepts: Exposure is the nature and degree to which
systems are exposed to environmental change. Sensitivity is the degree
to which a human–environmental system is affected either adversely
or beneficially. Adaptive capacity is the potential to implement planned
adaptation measures, mainly to lessen the effects of negative impacts
and to take advantage of any opportunities (Smit et al., 2001; Adger
et al., 2007).
Various types of natural hazards threaten different parts of Asia, in-
cluding typhoons (tropical cyclones), floods, droughts, forest fire, earth-
quakes and tsunamis (Goff and Terry, 2012; Chauhan et al., 2018).
Typhoons and their associated coastal floods are important for low-
lying coastlines of the northwestern Pacific. Within Vietnam in particu-
lar, typhoons are the major natural hazard, but vulnerability varies from
place to place owing to characteristics of both natural and human
34 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
Fig. 2. (a) Regions of Vietnam and locations of cities in different classes. (b) Spatial profile of urban population changes between 1999 and 2009. (Source: Urban Solutions, 2011).
systems. In general, it may be argued that typhoons are becoming less
deadly, but more costly. There are fewer fatalities, but the costs of dam-
ages are increasing, as population and economic growth exposes more
assets to typhoon impacts.
The severity of typhoon impacts depends on both meteorological
features of the storm itself and the social characteristics of the human
populations affected. Different people, even within the same region,
can exhibit different vulnerabilities according to their level of adaptive
capacity. Poorer people are, for instance, less able to afford housing
that can withstand strong typhoons. Access to medical care services
may be limited. They are also less able to equip themselves with ade-
quate resources and insurance that can assist in post-disaster recovery.
When typhoons strike, poorer sections of society are therefore more
likely to suffer adverse consequences. There are exceptions, however.
Some coastal developments in Vietnam have become valuable beach-
side real estate, populated mainly by the rich, leaving them more vul-
nerable to storm surges or strong wind. Richer sectors of society also
lose more in actual monetary terms from typhoon disasters, simply be-
cause they possess greater wealth to begin with.
Education is an important factor that can reduce vulnerability, as is
the level of local and national government involvement. Authorities
have an important role in implementing policies that enhance adaptive
capacity, such as through campaigns that raise awareness and foster so-
ciety to prepare for typhoons. Continual advances in science and tech-
nology that allow better forecasting are also vital to provide timely
warnings. Furthermore, authorities can enforce the protection of man-
groves that offer some degree of natural coastal protection. Government
can also assit by improving housing and providing finance to lessen
poverty.
This work designed a VAC framework for Vietnam (Fig. 3), incorpo-
rating a range of proxy indicators (Table 1) adapted from the ideas of
Moss et al. (2001); Shepard et al. (2012) and Weis et al. (2016) to mea-
sure the vulnerability of human sectors to typhoons. It is reasonable to
expect vulnerability to typhoons (hazard/stressor) to increase with in-
creasing rates of exposure and sensitivity. It is also assumed that vulner-
ability decreases with greater adaptive capacity (Yohe and Tol, 2002).
Vulnerability (V) defined here as a function of Hazard (H), Exposure
(E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive capacity (AC), as expressed in Eq. (1).
The equation is not intended as a mathematical function, but shows
the relationship between the elements of vulnerability:
Hazard  Exposure  Sensitivity
V¼ ð1Þ
Adaptive Capacity
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
Fig. 3. An assessment framework for vulnerability and adaptive capacity (VAC) in Vietnam in response to typhoons.
3.2. Typhoon data acquisition
The study area falls within the region of responsibility of the Re-
gional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the Northwest Pa-
cific, based at the Tokyo headquarters of the Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA). Six RSMCs operate worldwide. The JMA is the agency ap-
proved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to operate
the RSMC-Tokyo (RSMC-Tokyo, 2018). For our analysis, the original ty-
phoon archive with RSMC-Tokyo was not accessed directly, but instead
from the online portal of the International Best Track Archive for Cli-
mate Stewardship (IBTrACS, 2018). The IBTrACS database is organised,
maintained and made freely available in the public domain by the US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for global
tropical cyclone information to be disseminated and used in scientific
research. The database contains assimilated data provided by the six
Table 1
Components and indicators used to determine vulnerability, exposure/sensitivity and adaptive capacity to typhoons in Vietnam. Data sources are shown.
Components Indicators
Hazard (B1) C1 Typhoon pressure
C2 Typhoon frequency
C3 Precipitation
C4 Coastal flood risk
C5 Proximity to typhoon tracks
C6 Slope
C7 Elevation
Potential impacts (Exposure and Sensitivity) C8 Land use/land cover
(B2) C9 Proximity to coastline
C10 Proximity to airports
C11 Proximity to tourist sites
C12 Proximity to hotels
C13 Proximity to power stations
C14 Proximity to transportation
network
C15 Population density
Adaptive capacity (B3) C16 Mangrove protection
C17 Proximity to a health center
C18 Local response ability
C19 Education level
C20 Income
C21 Housing condition
35
WMO-designated RSMCs, sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Warning Cen-
tres (TCWCs) and a number of additional agencies. The Tropical Cyclone
Programme of the WMO has endorsed IBTrACS as an official archiving
and distribution resource for TC best-track data.
The current IBTrACS dataset (version v03r10) for the NWP basin
covers the period 1951 to 2017, i.e. 66 typhoon seasons (IBTrACS,
2018). Of the total 1712 systems recorded in the IBTrACS database, a
subset of 252 intensified to become typhoons in the NWP (Fig. 4).
Tropical storms (≥34 knots) are classified as typhoons when maximum
10-minute sustained wind speeds reach ≥64 knots (≥33 m/s)
(WMO, 2015). These wind speeds correspond to minimum atmospheric
pressure at sea level ≤976 hPa (NOAA, 2018). Typhoons occupy cate-
gory 12 on the Beaufort Scale for wind force (Terry, 2007). Over the de-
cade 2008–2017, between 8 and 27 typhoons formed annually in the
NWP.
Sources and Description
Processed from original typhoon track data: IBTrACS (2018).
Calculated from DEM
Calculated from typhoon tracks
Atlas Vietnam (NARENCA, 2011)
Atlas Vietnam (NARENCA, 2011)
MODIS, 2016 data
Calculated from Atlas Vietnam (NARENCA, 2011)
MODIS, 2016 data and Atlas Vietnam (NARENCA, 2011)
Calculated from Atlas Vietnam (NARENCA, 2011)
Estimated from the report summary of MARD, 2012, 2016.
Processed from data records published by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam,
2016.
36 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46

Fig. 4. Above left: grey lines show tracks of all tropical storms and typhoons that formed in the NW Pacific basin between 1951 and 2017. Above right: the subset of tropical storms and
typhoons that crossed Vietnam between 1951 and 2017. The selection highlights 252 tracks (wind speed ≥ 35 knots), representing 15% of total systems formed in the NWP over that pe-
riod. (Source of original track data: IBTrACS, 2018). Below: annual frequency of typhoons and tropical storms making landfall across Vietnam.

3.3. Weighting, normalizing and mapping
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique was applied for
weighting the 21 VAC indicators within the three domains of vulnerabil-
ity, exposure/sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The individual pairwise
comparison matrix was established through the qualitative judgement
of six local and internationsl experts from academic, governmental
and research units with broad experience in environmental risk assess-
ment. Similar expert assessment methods were used by Glanville et al.
(2016). Here local experts familiar with typhoon hazards and conditions
in Vietnam reviewed and provided feedback on the selected indicators.
International experts based their prioritization of criteria on the
pairwise comparison using 9-point scales developed by Saaty (2008)
(Table A1 in Appendix A). A consistency ratio (CR) is computed to justify
the evaluation of experts in the pairwise comparison matrix. The consis-
tency is acceptable if the CR value b0.1. CR is calculated using Eq. 2:
CR ¼ CI=RI
where λmax refers to the largest eigenvalue of the matrix and n repre-
sents the order of the matrix.
In order to place all indicators on the same scale, the linear scale
transformation in Eq. (4) was used. This normalizes the values of all in-
dicators within the range 0–1.
P value − min
N¼ ð4Þ
max− min
where N is the normalized value, Pvalue is the value of the pixel, and min
and max are the minimum and maximum values associated with each
raster indicator, respectively.
To calculate and integrate all vulnerability indicators, and visualize
these on output maps for Vietnam, the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS
10.3 software published by the Environmental Systems Research Institute
(ESRI) were used. In order to examine the range in vulnerability to ty-
phoons, five ranked levels are designated: very low, low, medium, high,
and very high. This ranking classification was determined for all indicators
ð2Þ
(Table A2 in Appendix A) and their weightings are shown in Table 2.

where RI is random index, and CI is the consistency index as calculated 3.4. Selection of VAC indicators
by Eq. 3:
3.4.1. Hazard sub-indicators
To capture the pattern of typhoon hazards and to map the resulting
CI ¼ ðλmax −nÞ=ðn−1Þ ð3Þ vulnerability across Vietnam, seven sub-indicators were used:
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
Table 2
Vulnerability indicators, consistency ratios and weightings.
Components of Indicators
vulnerability
Hazard C1 Typhoon pressure
Consistency ratio: 0.070 C2 Typhoon frequency
C3 Precipitation
C4 Coastal flood risk
C5 Proximity to typhoon tracks
C6 Slope
C7 Elevation
Exposure and Sensitivity C8 Land use/land cover
Consistency ratio: 0.009 C9 Proximity to coastline
C10 Proximity to airports
C11 Proximity to tourist sites
C12 Proximity to hotels
C13 Proximity to power stations
C14 Proximity to transportation network
C15 Population density
Adaptive capacity C16 Mangrove protection
Consistency ratio: 0.030 C17 Proximity to a health center
C18 Local response ability
C19 Education level
C20 Income
C21 Housing condition
(1) Typhoon minimum pressure (as a measure of intensity); (2) Typhoon
frequency; (3) Precipitation; (4) Coastal flood risk; (5) Proximity to ty-
phoon tracks; (6) Slope; and (7) Elevation. For sub-indicators 1 and 2,
we used data from the historical track records of all typhoons and trop-
ical storms that crossed Vietnam between 1951 and 2017. These storm
tracks and their attributes were processed with the spatial analysis tools
available in the ArcGIS 10.3 environment. Precipitation data
(3) (monthly averages in mm) were retrieved from global average
Fig. 5. Typhoon hazard map for Vietnam, showing the hazard levels (right) and their spatial distribution (left). See text for explanation.
37
precipitation (mm) based on 9,000 to 60,000 weather stations over
the period 1970–2000 (Fick and Hijmans, 2017). A GEOTIFF file at a res-
Weighting olution of 0.00833° was classified into eight classes. The precipitation
data were interpolated using thin-plate splines with covariates includ-
0.211 ing elevation, distance to the coast. Coastal flood risk (4) was computed
0.195 based on the digital elevation model (DEM). Map Algebra is an algebraic
0.079 tool for manipulating geographic data. It allows two or more raster
0.101
layers (maps) of similar dimensions to produce a new raster layer
0.339
0.029 using algebraic operations (Dana Tomlin, 1990, 2012; Longley et al.,
0.046 2010). This tool was used to demarcate coastal areas where elevation
0.145 is lower than 5 m above sea level. Slope and elevation indicators (6
0.206 and 7) were derived from the DEM.
0.023
0.047
0.032 3.4.2. Exposure and sensitivity sub-indicators
0.069 Exposure and sensitivity are commonly grouped together because
0.101 they are intricately related properties of a system or community. They
0.377
are dependent on the attributes of the extreme events and their interac-
0.043
0.065 tion with the characteristics of the system (Smit and Wandel, 2006). For
0.132 instance, the exposure and sensitivity of a human sector to a particular
0.134 hazard reflect the likelihood of experiencing various adverse conditions
0.248 and the sectoral characteristics that govern sensitivity to such exposure.
0.377
The indicators are similar to those that influence or constrain a system's
adaptive capacity. Here the stressors are typhoons and their conse-
quences. Dimensions of exposure and sensitivity include physical, eco-
nomic and social sensitivity, settlement location and types, and
livelihoods (Weis et al., 2016).
To capture and visualize these dimensions, we selected eight sub-
indicators: (1) Land use/land cover (LULC) is an important determinant
of exposure and sensitivity due to its contribution to physical elements
on the surface. Areas with vegetation cover are less sensitive to typhoon
damage (in human terms) than residential or infrastructural areas.
Urban areas are more sensitive and exposed to damage than naturally
38 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
vegetated areas. For this study, twelve classes of LULC are derived from
MODIS data. These are: water, shrubs, non-vegetated, evergreen broad-
leaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, de-
ciduous needleleaf forest, cereal crop/grasses, broadleaf crop, annual
broadleaf vegetation, residential area, and infrastructure. (2) Proximity
to the coastline: areas located nearer the coastline are generally affected
more than areas farther away. The proximity of additional physical ele-
ments at risk of typhoon damage and flooding is also important, so we
also measured (3) Proximity to airports; (4) Proximity to tourist sites;
(5) Proximity to hotels; (6) Proximity to power stations; (7) Proximity to
the transportation network; and (8) Population density. The population
density layer is an important indicator: areas with greater exposed pop-
ulations are more likely to suffer typhoon hazard impacts. Higher popu-
lation density can also lead to difficulties in evacuation. Furthermore,
typhoons that hit important communications facilities such as airports
have cascanding impacts by disrupting flights, stranding large numbers
of people on site and in other locations, and negatively affecting both
tourism and the economy generally. Similarly, typhoons may cause
dignificant damages to shipping and tourist services in coastal areas.
On the other hand, it is also true that populous areas may have better so-
cietal connectedness and are able to offer mutual assistance in dealing
with the aftermath of hazard impacts.
3.4.3. Adaptive capacity sub-indicators
Adaptive capacity uniquely represents the ability of a human system
to cope with extreme events. Here, we selected nine indicators to depict
adaptive capacity to typhoons. The indicators are mainly dimensions in
the social and economic realms: (1) Mangrove protection: mangrove for-
ests growing along a coastline play a crucial role in coastal protection
against wind, wave energy and storm surge. (2) Proximity to health cen-
ters: sections of the population who are in close proximity to emergency
health care facilities are relatively less vulnerable. ArcGIS tools are used
Fig. 6. Exposure and sensitivity to typhoons across Vietnam.
to calculate the Euclidean distance, grouped into five classes. (3) Local
response ability: the performance is based on the response activities of
local authorities, investment in construction for mitigation, and by the
efforts of the Steering Committee of Typhoon and Flood Mitigation
and in each province of Vietnam. Local responses are classified as inef-
fective, moderately effective and effective. Evaluation is based on the re-
port summing up implementation of the Ordinance on the Prevention
and Fight Against Floods and Typhoons of Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development (MARD, 2012, 2016). (4) Education level: less-
educated sections of society are likely to exhibit greater vulnerability
and lower adaptive capacity, for example in terms of awareness of the
potential dangers of weather extremes. (5) Income: higher-income fam-
ilies are better able to adapt to increasing hazards. The lack of finances
for low-income families restricts access to education, information, re-
sources and medical care. (6) Housing condition: solid houses con-
structed of bricks and masonry are better able than informal housing
to endure strong winds, heavy rain and flooding, thus enabling commu-
nities to cope better with an extreme event (Mileti and Sorensen, 1990;
Sharma et al., 2009).
4. Results
4.1. Hazard analysis
The spatial distribution of Vietnam's typhoon hazard is classified
into five levels, as displayed in Fig. 5. Statistical analysis reveals that ap-
proximately 6.3% and 18.9% of Vietnam lies in zones with very high and
high levels of hazard, respectively. These zones are mainly concentrated
in the Northern Coastal area, the South East, the Mekong Delta, and part
of the Red River Delta. The region classified with a medium hazard
mostly lies inland and accounts for 25.7% of Vietnam. Low and very
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
low hazard zones account for 23.1% and 26% of Vietnam and occur pri-
marily in the highlands or mountainous regions, respectively.
4.2. Exposure and sensitivity analysis
Vietnam's regional exposure and sensitivity to typhoons is mapped
in Fig. 6. In general, coastal areas are more exposed to typhoons and as-
sociated flooding compared to other areas. However, the degree of ex-
posure is not uniform for all coastal regions. The areas with very high
and high exposure (accounting for 4% and 17% of the country, respec-
tively) are found in the Red River Delta, the South East, the Mekong
Delta, and the Southern Coastal area. Not surprisingly, these regions
have lower lying elevations than elsewhere, as well as more features ex-
posed to typhoon risk.
4.3. Adaptive capacity analysis
The spatial pattern of adaptive capacity is illustrated in Fig. 7. Adap-
tive capacity is seen to vary greatly over Vietnam. Very low adaptive ca-
pacity characterizes the North West and the North Central Mountains,
corresponding to regions of low income and relative lack of access to
good educational resources. Low and medium adaptive capacity is con-
centrated in the North East, the Central Highlands and the Mekong
Delta. The Red River Delta and the South East exhibit very high adaptive
capacity.
4.4. Vulnerability analysis
The distribution of overall vulnerability to typhoons across Vietnam
is displayed in Fig. 8. This map illustrates the amalgamated findings
based on the three components of hazard levels, exposure/sensitivity,
Fig. 7. Adaptive capacity across Vietnam in response to typhoons.
39
and adaptive capacity, as presented in Figs. 5–7. According to analysis,
very high vulnerability exists in the South East and part of the Southern
Coastal areas (3% of Vietnam). High vulnerability (nearly 8%) occurs
mainly in the Red River Delta and parts of the Southern Coastal area. Al-
most every region of Vietnam has some areas with medium vulnerability
to typhoons (~20%). The Central Highlands, the northern Mekong Delta,
and regions in the far north of Vietnam are generally classified as having
low and very low vulnerability, accounting for approximately 70% of the
total area. Importantly, note that factors contributing to vulnerability
are not the same across all regions of Vietnam, because the characteris-
tics of exposure/sensitivity and adaptive capacity are different. It is also
clear that the vulnerability of coastal areas depends heavily on elevation
above sea level. In addition, typhoon frequency and intensity also vary
spatially, and therefore exert strong regional control.
5. Discussion
Our framework for typhoon vulnerability assessment in Vietnam
will be useful to the relevant authorities tasked with disaster prepared-
ness and mitigation. In this framework, we demonstrate how GIS is ap-
plied to combine geospatial features representing indicators of hazard,
sensitivity and exposure and adaptive capacity, and is able to represent
the spatial vulnerability of human systems within Vietnam. It improves
understanding of the status level of individual components of vulnera-
bility at regional scales. Mapping and geovisualistion of the results
allow easy comparison between different regions of the country, so
aiding appreciation of which areas should be designated as top priorities
in terms of disaster planning. Moreover, the proposed framework is de-
signed to be flexible. By amending the input criteria, it can serve as a
template for assessing vulnerability for other types of natural hazards
in Vietnam and beyond in East Asia.
40 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46
Fig. 8. Vulnerability distribution across Vietnam. Vulnerability amalgamates the influence of three separate components: hazard, exposure/sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Each of these
has its own indicators, as explained in the text.
From our analysis, it is possible to make suggestions for improving the
coping strategies of vulnerable communities in the face of future ty-
phoons and associated flooding. We recommend that the appropriate
agencies pay particular attention to the areas we have identified as
most likely to be heavily impacted. Those regions would benefit most
from education and awareness raising. Installation of advanced commu-
nication systems for early warning, additional dyke defenses, and con-
struction of suitable shelters for emergency evacuation, offer several
options for better protection in such areas. However, it is appreciated
that various challenges must be overcome in the course of implementing
scientific findings into community practice. For instance, forecasts of ty-
phoon tracks, wind intensity and rainfall are continually improving in ac-
curacy, but releasing information in a timely manner in a form that is
accessible to the general populace remains difficult. Similarly, although
disaster responses to some extent can be enhanced through direct mea-
sures taken by government, the culture and habits of society remain
strong influences that intrinsically affect how people actually respond
during natural disasters (Lavigne et al., 2008; Kulatunga, 2010).
Uncertainties in our study need to be mentioned, not least because
identifying these will enable future refinement of the current vulnerabil-
ity assessment. Most important to recognize is that our selected set of 21
indicators is unlikely to capture the entire spectrum of influences on
Vietnam's vulnerability to typhoons. For example, societal awareness of
hazards and willingness (or otherwise) to relocate to safe areas are not
fully encompassed by the criteria of educational level and income. Ethnic-
ity, gender and age also need to be taken into consideration because chil-
dren, the elderly and minorities often show higher vulnerability in
comparison with other groups – i.e. population demographics are impor-
tant (Donner and Rodríguez, 2008). Indigenous environmental
knowledge can also be of value in dealing with hazards (Cronin et al.,
2004). Furthermore, the characteristics of exposed infrastructure should
include additional information on the year of construction, materials,
and type of construction used, because poorly-built housing for example
can be a major disadvantage when disasters occur (Rygel et al., 2006).
Owing to existing limitations on data availability within Vietnam, it
was not feasible at this stage to incorporate significantly more detail
or a greater range of indicators in vulnerability assessment. This situa-
tion should gradually improve over time, however, as data sharing be-
tween key agencies is increasingly encouraged and emphasized (Aitsi-
Selmi et al., 2016). Nevertheless, in spite of any shortcomings, our find-
ings are of value for disaster risk reduction in Vietnam. This is primarily
because the current work is the first vulnerability assessment related to
a specific natural hazard, as far as can be ascertained from published re-
ports. Although this hinders the possibility of comparison with other
work at the present time, we can justifiably claim that our study repre-
sents an imperative first step towards improved hazard vulnerability as-
sessment and mapping at national and local scales in Vietnam.
6. Conclusions
Understanding societal vulnerability to natural hazards is a funda-
mental prerequisite to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Our study is the
first to investigate and quantify elements of vulnerability to typhoons
across Vietnam. This has been tackled by assessing the intersection be-
tween three separate components: hazard, exposure and sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity. The status of each was calculated using a frame-
work that utilizes 21 physical and socioeconomic indicators, embedded
in a variety of numerical metrics for which data are available in Vietnam.
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46 41

Our work can serve as a practical example of how science can provide
information to stakeholders that should assist in guiding policy for
DRR and improved disaster management. It is anticipated that the find-
ings will stimulate governmental agencies to incorporate additional
measures for disaster adaptation in existing policy for sustainable devel-
opment. Likewise, citizens themselves are encouraged to build and safe-
guard greater community resilience. The proposed framework for
vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment is recommended as a
flexible template applicable to a range of spatiotemporal scales for
other types of natural hazards that regularly impact Vietnam and neigh-
boring South East Asian nations.
Acknowledgements
K.A Nguyen and Y.A. Liou appreciate the financial support of
Taiwan’s Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) under project
codes 105-2221-E-008-056-MY3, 107-2111-M-008-036 and 107-
2622-E-008-006-CC3. J.P. Terry acknowledges research funding from
Zayed University RIF grant no. R17036. Global datasets were utilized
from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), World Bank and the
FAO. The constructive recommendations of three anonymous reviewers
helped the authors make significant improvements to the original
manuscript.

Appendix A

Fig. A1. Hazard indicators: (a) proximity to typhoon track; (b) typhoon pressure; (c) typhoon frequency (storms experienced over 1951–2017); (d) precipitation; (e) coastal flood risk;
(f) elevation; and (g) slope
42 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46

Fig. A2. Exposure and sensitivity indicators: (a) land use/land cover; (b) proximity to coastline; (c) proximity to tourist sites; (d) proximity to airports; (e) proximity to the main
international hotels; (f) proximity to power stations; (g) population density; and (h) proximity to transportation network.
 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46 43

Fig. A3. Adaptive capacity indicators: (a) mangrove protection; (b) proximity to health centers; (c) housing condition; (d) education level; (e) income level; and (f) local response ability.

Table A1
Scale of relative importance (adapted from Saaty, 2008).

Relative Definition Description

importance

1 Equal importance Two indicators influence on objective equally

3 Moderate importance Experience and judgement slightly favor one indicator over another
5 Strong importance Experience and judgement strongly favor one indicator over another
7 Very strong importance One decision indicator is favored strongly over another and its supremacy is established in
practice
9 Extreme importance The evidence favoring one decision indicator over another is of the highest possible order of
validity

(continued on next page)

44 K.-A. Nguyen et al. / Science of the Total Environment 682 (2019) 31–46

Table A1 (continued)

Relative Definition Description

importance

2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate values between the two adjacent Compromise is needed

judgements

A.1. Method
Computation of indicators.
Typhoon pressure is derived from recorded typhoon positions with attribute pressure values by the Spline Interpolation method.

Table A2
Classifying ranking of indicators contributing to vulnerability assessment to typhoons.

Components Indicators Vulnerability ranking

Hazard (B1) Very low Low Medium High Very high

C1 Typhoon pressure 1013–1048 1002–1013 992–1002 982–992 950–982
(mbar)
C2 Typhoon frequency 7–8 14–29 29–43 43–49 49–85
(number)
C3 Precipitation (mm) 43–125 125–173 173–206 206–244 244–333
C4 Coastal flood risk 4–5 4–3.5 3.5–3 3–2 2–0
C5 Proximity to 1.526–2.115 1.028–1.526 0.605–1.028 0.274–0.605 0–0.274
typhoon tracks
(degrees)
C6 Slope (degrees) N40 35–40 15–25 8–15 b8
C7 Elevation (meters) N150 80–150 50–80 10–50 b10
Potential impacts C8 Land use/land cover Water, shrubs, Evergreen broadleaf Deciduous broadleaf Cereal crop/grasses, broadleaf Residential
(Exposure and non-vegetated forest, evergreen forest, deciduous crop, Annual broadleaf area,
Sensitivity) (B2) needleleaf forest needleleaf forest vegetation, infrastructure
C9 Proximity to 250,000-842,254 140,000-250,000 75,000-140,000 40,000-75,000 0–40,000
coastline (meters)
C10 Proximity to 155,300–247,518 110,000–155,300 73,770–110,000 41,000-73,770 0–41,000
airports (meters)
C11 Proximity to tourist 250,000-842,254 140,000-250,000 75,000-140,000 40,000-75,000 0–40,000
sites (meters)
C12 Proximity to hotels 150,000-260,068 100,000–150,000 65,000–100,000 s 35,000-65,000 0–35,000
(meters)
C13 Proximity to 137,000-219,726 88,000-137,000 52,000-88,000 21,000-52,000 0–21,000
electric plants (meters)
C14 Proximity to 100,000–190,000 30,000–100,000 14,000–30,000 6000–14,000 0–6000
transportation
network (meters)
C15 Population density b200 200–400 400–900 900–2000 2000–3589
(people/sq.km)
Adaptive capacity (B3) C16 Mangrove – Cover – No cover _
protection
C17 Proximity to health 0–20,000 20,000-35,000 35,000-52,000 52,000- 75,000 75,000-209,000
center (meters)
C18 Local response – Effective Moderate Ineffective –
ability
C19 Education level Very high High Medium Low Very low
(normalized value)
C20 Income Very high High Medium Low Very low
(normalized values)
C21 Housing condition Very low Low Medium High Very high
(level at risk)

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