By – Sumiran Bansal

CA, CS & PGDFM

9821165682
Particular
State of Affairs
Guj State All India
ACS 6.30 6.00
ARR 6.55 5.48
Gen Capacity 36 GW 401 GW
Solar 40 GW
Wind 14 GW 60 GW
Hydro 50 GW
Generation in BU 94 BU 1500 BU
Generation in BU from RE 306 BU
AT & C 16.33% 22%
Transmission CKM 65,608 4,57,000 CKM
Transformation Capacity MVA 10,80,000 MVA
Smart Meter – Target 38 Million - 0.5 Million
FRC – Developed - 20GW/Hz - 6 to 9GW/Hz
Per Capital Consumption 2283 1208 Kwh
Peak Demand 21 GW 211 GW
Ash Generation - 233 MT
RPO – Target 25 to 43% 12.73% 2 By - Sumiran Bansal, 9821165682

PLF 40% 60%

 Demand Scenario
 Per
Capital Consumption  Food grain production 316.1 MT
Low  Power consumption growth 4.6%
 GDP Growth of 7%  Traffic at major ports 650.52 MT

 PLF – BTG – MTL  Railway freight growth 6.6%

 Car Sales 3 Lakh PM
 Makein India –
Outsourcing  Domestic Air Passenger 2 Crore PM
 Credit Growth 7.90%
 EV + Train, Metro, Auto,
Truck, Ship  GST 1.42 Lakh Crore

3 By - Sumiran Bansal, 9821165682

 Socio Economic Trends
1 Rapid 2 Better
Urbanization to drive
Energy Demand
 Increased Consumption will
boost Manufacturing for
appliances.
India: Appliance energy consumption
projection
482 TWh/yr
380 TWh/yr
2021 2026
Source: World Bank, 2008
 Strong demand to propel
energy intensive industries
e.g. steel and cement
“The largest contribution to demand growth (2017-2040)- almost 30% - comes from India, whose share of global energy use rises to 11% by 2040 “(World
Utility-
Consumer
Engagement
 Higher demand for products  Accelerated demand for RES
& services e.g. Smart Meters.
Estimated No of
Smart/Prepaid meters
required
~70 Million, immediately
Source: CEA, 2017
 Energy efficiency adoption
to create new segments.
Estimated Investment
in EE, 2015-2040
$ 832 Bn.
Source: IEA 2015
 New PPP ventures with
Utilities
Energy Demand 2040: 3305Mtoe)
3 Adoption 4 Rising 5 Adoption
of Cleaner trend of of electricity
Energy Sources Electric ` for cooking
Mobility
 E-mobility to create  Rural sector consumers to
technologies and services. additional demand increasingly adopt
electricity as primary fuel
for cooking.
 Rising trend of EV adoption
 New Business segments to to boost demand for EV
help integrate VRE Subsystems.
penetration in grid.
 Major contribution towards
base demand.
 EV Ancillary Services such as
Estimated* annual Energy Supply
(BU) by RES battery swapping, recycling
to receive major boost.
383 BU
Estimated Capacity requirement for
HH cooking @20% adoption
124 BU
Estimated No of ~50 GW.
EVs by 2030
~261 Million
2017 2022
Source: MoP
Source: MoP Source: NITI Ayog 2017,
*At Avg. PLF of 25%
(Transformative Scenario)
4
-IEA World Energy Outlook, 2017
Power Sector is enabling Social and Economic Transformation….

Increasing Per Capita Consumption 818 kWh (FY ’11) to 1122 kWh (FY ’17)
Source: CEA 2017

Requirement of additional 28,000 MW /

Connecting the last household
80,000 MUs per annum
Source: SAUBHAGYA portal

Making Utilities Efficient and 25% reduction in DISCOMs financial losses in

Viable last 1 year
Source: UDAY Portal

24X7 Affordable and Reliable Growth in energy billed by ~9% in FY17

Power against ~6% in FY16
Source: CEA, UDAY Portal

Increasing transparency & Portals/APPs 5launched along with a

Customer Inclusion National Power Portal
 Positive Electricity Demand Outlook
c
Significant demand Potential: Similar Socio-Economic Conditions but Present Power Demand growth CAGR: 5%
different Annual per capita Consumption Expected Power Demand growth CAGR (FY’17 –FY ‘22: 6%
1600 1,566
240
North Africa* 1687
226 220
Latin America* 2059 1400
3051 200
East Asia * 1,160
1200
1,108 180
World* 1,049
3126 960 967 160 160
1000
All India 1122 909
148 153 140
NE Region 392 800 135 136
130 120
Eastern Region 694
600 100
Southern Region 1432 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2021-22
Western Region 1533
EnergyDemand ('000 MU) Peak Demand ('000 MW)
Northern Region 1003
Source: CEA and 19th EPS
Source: WB analysis and CEA
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Electrification and Last Mile Connectivity

24X7
Power Key Drivers of
Reliability of Supply
for All Key Drivers of
Demand
Demand Growth
Hours of Supply
6
Electrification of Transport
 Increase in Supply Base
Opportunities in Generation: Catering beyond Base Load
Expected India Duck Curve with 20,000 MW Solar Generation
200 50%
Envisaged RE Capacity Entails higher
180 173
Grid Penetration of Variable Sources 45%
160 149
40%
140
124 37%
35%
120
100 34%
100 30%
30%
78
80 26% 25%
57
60
22% 20%
40
18%
15%
20

0 10%
2016-17* 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Installed Capacity RES (GW) RES as % of Total

Source: Draft, NEP 2016
Source: NLDC

Ancillary Services Smart Grid Technologies

Frequency Management Peak Load Management
Voltage Management Human Error Avoidance

RE Grid Integration:
Opportunities

Storage Devices Capacity Market7

Excess RE Generation Demand Supply Balance
Likely Investment Potential in Major Segments

Investment Potential b/w 2015-2040 as per India Energy Outlook

Investment (Approx.)
Areas
In INR In USD
Coal Generation 22.0 Lakh Cr $ 354 Billion
Nuclear Generation 6.0 Lakh Cr $ 96 Billion
Hydro 8.8 Lakh Cr $ 141 Billion
Renewables 38.4 Lakh Cr $ 611 Billion
Transmission & Distribution networks 53.2 Lakh Cr $ 845 Billion
On the Distribution side, new trends and emerging areas like Rooftop Solar, EVs, Smart meter, Storage,
Ancillary Services etc. to open additional avenues of investment

8
 Way Forward
GENERATION
 PGP towards RE of 50% by 2030.
IPDS. BTG - MTL 55%
 Offshore Wind Power – NOWEA –
LIDAR – 3 MW
 Power deficit to Surplus
 RPO / HPO Target. REMC
 Coal Stock position – 20 to 26 days
 PLF below 60%
 Halide Perovskites, Bifacial Module &
Dual Axis Tracker – Conversion
efficiency 30%
 Captive Coal, Coal Beneficiation, Ash
content < 20%
 FGD, IGCC & CCS
TRANSMISSION
 33 KV Transmission
 Smart meter/ Smart Grid. AMI –IoT.
 T& D Losses
 Green Corridor
 Dual Flow and Storage for RE
 FRC, S- PMU (WAMCPS &
URTDSM)
 RIP – 800 KV Bushing.
 Transformer & Reactor - Standard
Specifications and Technical Parameters for 66 KV & above
 ISTS
 REMC
9 By - Sumiran Bansal, 9821165682
 Opportunities
 Escalating Demand
 Revenue Maximization
 Deficit to Surplus (Exporting State)
 Agriculture Loss - Solar Pump Sales 25% – Revenue 13%
 5G Line / Tower
 T& D Losses
 LED Bulb
 RPO / HPO Target
 EES – EV
 IPDS
10 By - Sumiran Bansal, 9821165682
 Macro-economic snapshot
 WPI 5.85%  USD 82.33
 CPI 5.88%  Trade deficit $ 20.88 Bn
 GDP Growth 8%  SLR 18%
 PMI manufacturing 54.00
 CRR 4.50%
 PMI Services 53.60
 Repo 6.50% (3.35%)
 IIP 1.3%
 Fiscal Deficit 6.4%
 10-year G-sec 7.5%
 Forex Reserve 562 B  Revenue 3.8%
 Call Rate 5.7%  Primary 2.8%
 Crude $ 77
 Gold $ 1861
By - Sumiran Bansal, 9821165682
 CASA 44% 11