AI-Enhanced ESP Optimization Predicts Failures

and Increases Production in the Permian

March 2024

Chris Robart, Chief Commercial Officer

Ambyint: Production & Artificial Lift Optimization

Key Differentiators Customer Impact

● Surveillance, Analytics, and Visualization ● Optimized Productivity

● Automated Reporting ● Improved Reliability
● Setpoint Optimization ● Maximized Workforce Effectiveness
● Anomaly Detection ● Decreased OpEx
● Reduction of GHG emissions

Data Sources Analytics & Optimization Visualization

SCADA
Rod Lift
Production
Plunger Lift
Accounting
ESP
WellView
Gas Lift
Historians GAPL/PAGL
Edge Devices
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Differentiator: Physics-based AI built by SMEs

Physics
Physics SME
SME AI
AI

+ +

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Overview of ESP Optimization Solution

Features 3-5% Production

● Robust physics engine / IPR curves
● Setpoint management and optimization
● Failure prediction and pump health index
● Pumping operations recommendations
● Virtual flow meter 20-30% Runtime

Benefits

● Increase production
● Increase runtime / decrease failures Powered by
● Reduce downtime
● Increase Engineering/Ops efficiency
● Reduce electricity & GHG emissions (type 2)
Case Study: ESP Optimization & Failure Prediction in Permian

Challenge

● Permian operator struggled with managing 100s of

ESP wells
● Operator suffered from high failure rates, leading
to high organizational distraction
Solution

● Deployed ESP solution to proactively manage ESP

operations and optimize setpoints
● Deployed failure prediction capabilities to reduce
failure cycle time and well downtime
Impact

● +3% oil production

● Predicted 100% of actual failures
Overview of ESP Optimization Functionality
● Real-time mechanistic simulation model
● 100s of simulation scenarios processed in real-time
● Provides for 2 optimization objectives:
○ Maximize Production
○ Extend Runlife / Efficiency
● Includes choke & VFD optimization
● Ability to incorporate user-defined constraints, including
reservoir, surface, processing facility
● Includes robust gas handling constraints to successfully
manage high GOR unconventional oil wells

Minimum Point
BEP
Maximum Point

Minimum Point
BEP
Maximum Point
Case Study: ESP Optimization - Well Story
Total Liquid Production (bbl)
Challenge
Speed
● Highly dynamic and rapidly declining production
change
makes it difficult to determine optimal ESP
operating parameters
● No real-time IPR / pump curves available
Solution

● Real-time optimization model identified a

production uplift opportunity
● Increased ESP speed from 60 to 65 Hz to improve
production
Impact

● Increased oil production by 286 bbl (28 days)

● Equivalent to +4% BOPD
Overview of ESP Failure Prediction Functionality

● Failure Prediction Index (FPI) leverages Artificial

Failure Prediction Index
Intelligence to predict imminent non-trending
proactive prediction of imminent non
pump failure trending failures in real-time
● FPI prediction window typically between 2 and 8
week
● FPI successfully deployed in conventional
reservoirs, shale oil wells, EOR (water and CO2)
wells
● An independent Remaining Run Life (RRL) model
provides statistical analysis of expected run life
and failure date
Case Study: ESP Failure Prediction - Accuracy

Confusion Matrix

Actual Values

Positive: Negative:
Pump Failure No Pump Failure
Predicted Values
Positive (FPI>0) TP = 9 FP = 2

Negative (FPI=0) FN = 0 TN = n/a

n = 10 wells with stable date throughout 5-month pilot period FPI = 11 alerts for 5 unique wells

Recall Rate Precision Miss Rate

100% of actual failures were 82% of predicted positives 0% of the actual failures
predicted were actual failures were missed
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Case Study: ESP Failure Prediction - Well Story

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ESP Failure Prediction: Translating Insights Into Actions via Workflows

FPI Signal
Available via email/sms or Lower probability FPI alerts
platform
Remote Diagnostics

On-Site Diagnostics

Higher probability FPI alerts

Combination of FPI and diagnostics indicate
Imminent Failure imminent failure highly likely → trigger workflows

Engineering: Design Procurement: Secure Engineering: Schedule Engineering: Evaluate

New Well New Equipment Workover Rig Proactive Pull
Thank you

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