PRiSM Predictive Analytics

Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance

Outline
What is Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance

How is PRISM Predictive Analytics Work

Machine Learning and Reliability Practices

PRISM Predictive Analytics Dashboard

PRISM Predictive Analytics Architecture

Machine Learning
For Predictive Maintenance

Potential Failure
Functional Failure
 Machine Learning
For Predictive Maintenance

Big Data  Anomaly Detection

Operation Data Machine Learning/
 Failure Diagnostic
PdM Data
Artificial Intelligent
(ML/AI)  Prescriptive Action
 Duke Energy - Bearing Seal Problem
Observation:
• Bearing metal temperature
spikes seen on low pressure
turbine bearings
Results:
• Site investigation found oil
reservoir filled with half water
and half oil
• Experience from site
determined intricate valving
was supplying too much
pressure to the seals resulting
in water flowing to the bearings

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 Duke Energy – LP Rotor - L-0 Blade Problem
• Unit was started after an outage and there was a vibration step
change on one of the LP turbines (Vibration levels were well
below the alarm level)
• Engineering and the plant were notified
• Vibration data was collected and unit was retired for an inspection
• Bolts on lower half of flow sleeve had broke and flow sleeve
contacted L-0 blades
© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.
• Upper half of flow sleeve was no longer
supported by lower half
• Although we had minor damage to the LP blades,
we avoided damaging multiple stages of blades,
packing, and diaphragms if we had a severe
blade liberation.
• Estimated avoided cost - $4.1M
 Duke Energy – CTMU Pump
Playback result 2014
Observation:
• Classified as a catch and early warning

• June 18th – Communicated via email to station component

engineer and supervisor that possibly starting to see the
same trend that occurred in June 2014.
• Decision to monitor over weekend as coolers were just
flushed during April/May RFO.
• June 21st – Update provided to site engineering.
• June 22nd – Upward trend in OMR and bearing temps
continued throughout weekend.
• Engineering initiated action for operations to shift pumps
and a WR written for cleaning/flushing the motor coolers.

Actual result 2015

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.
 Southern Company – Boiler Feedwater Pump Problem
Observation
• Model is indicating an increase
in vibration on multiple bearings

Results
• A BFP coupling shim pack that
was on the verge of failure

$260,000 Savings

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 Gas Plant – Compressor

Catch
▲ Higher than expected vibrations on the second stage of a
compressor in relation to the current level of operation.

Cause
▲ The site found a cracked impeller.

Avoided Disaster
▲ Estimated that over $500K in costs were avoided by
preventing reactive maintenance and unplanned
downtime. Based on the speed of the crack propagation,
AVEVA AI detected this issue approximately 3 months
before operators would have noticed it.

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 Gas Turbine
Gas Turbine
Observation
 Blade Path temperature spread began to increase

 Spread increase was caused by early progression of

a transition piece failure.
 AVEVA AI notification feature sends emails and text
messages if the spread increases during operation

Result
 Transition piece did not liberate and damage
turbine.
 Avoided Cost: €1.5M

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 Kiln
OMR indicating an severe
But not increasing much
issue
in time (20 days range)

Bearing Closer look to the predictive values

replacement + real values + OMR allowed the
maintenance team to wait for the
schedule maintenance.

Avoided Production loss = 7000 tons (estimated)

Total Cost of maintenance = 3k USD (bearing
replacement)

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

ML : How It Works
Operation Data
Data
Collected PdM Data
DCS Data

Historian Data Data

Stored
Choose Influencing
Big Data
Parameter
Data
Applied Algorithm Analysis Training Data
Modelling (Clustering)
Rule-based Diagnostic Re-Train Data
Setup Data
Modelling
Alarm Limit Setup
Anomaly Detection
Failure
Applied Next Step Task Diagnostic Monitoring Asset Health
Monitoring Fault Diagnostic
Monitor Prescriptive
Action Prescriptive
Action
Case Management
 PRISM Predictive Analytic Indicators
Close loop early warning + diagnostics + action plans

Overall Model Individual Deviation Fault Diagnostics Prescriptive Actions

Residual Alerts • Signatures of • Inspections
• Single Parameter • Specific tags particular issues • Operation adjustment
Indicator of overall (problem symptoms) • Problem cause • Normalization plan
health identification • Work orders

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 Overall Model Residual
• Key indicator of ‘asset health’

© 2020 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

 PRiSM Predictive Analytics
What Prism does
• Turbine • Distillation Columns
• Compressor • Transformers, Breakers,
Capacitors
• Electric Generator
• Agitators, blender, Mixer
• Pumps – Centrifugal,
Reciprocating, Integral • Gearbox Power Generation Oil & Gas Petrochemical

• VFD’s • Chillers
• Fans, blowers • Seal systems
• Heat Exchanger, Boiler, Oven, Kiln • Diesel Engine
• Air Heaters
• Water Heaters Water
Power T&D Mining Management
• Turbo Expander
• Extruders
• Pulverizer, Crusher, Mill
• Condenser

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

PRiSM Predictive Analytics
What Prism does
What PRiSM Is… What PRiSM Is Not…
• Runs in real time continuously and does not
require presence of user all the time
• Detects anomalies or subtle deviations days, • Not designed to pick up instantaneous or fast
weeks, or months in advance acting anomalies
• Completely data driven and equipment • Does not require user to understand complex
manufacturer agnostic equations
• Complement operation staff and existing tools, e.g. • Not designed to replace operation staff and
visual inspection, oil analysis, DCS system, etc. exisiting tools, e.g. DCS system, etc.
• Free up operation staff to focus on higher priority
issues
• Requires ongoing model maintenance • Not a black box where user “deploys and
forgets”
• Easy to use and flexible in regards to model
building
Machine Learning and Reliability Best
Practices
Maintenance History Reliability
Data Management
Collected
Eq. Criticality FMEA

Improvement
RCFA

Continuous
Boundaries
Data
Stored Failure Mode – Effect - Cause
Reliability Task
Data
Analysis
Inspection
Data PM/TA
Modelling
PdM Risk Task
Plan Schedule
Prioritization Execution
Failure Process Cond.
Diagnostic Mon. Risk
ORD Mgmt. Work Management
Prescriptive
Action Condition
Management
Tiara Reliability Management Monitoring Work Flow

Reliability Portable Data Online Data Technology

Reliability Maintenance
Engineer Collection Collection Specialist
Engineer Engineer
Online Vibration
Existing vibration monitoring system
Monitoring

Online Wireless Technology Examination

Monitoring Vibration
Advance Analysis
Frequent Meas.

Portable Vibration
FMEA Measurement

Technology Examination Work Order

Asset Wellness
Life Cycle Strategy Oil Sampling
Oil Analysis Asset Risk
information Condition
Directed

Technology Examination for Machine Learning for

Operation Data Historian Data
Performance Predictive Maintenane

Motor Current and

Technology Examination
Voltage Signature
Motor Analysis
Analysis
Stator Advance Analysis

PD Offline for
Rotating Equipment
PD Online for Technology Examination
Rotating Equipment Partial Discharge
PD for Static
Equipment

Infrared Portable Technology Examination

Measurement Infrared Themography

Technology Examination
Fluxprobe
Fluxprobe

Technology Examination PM
Digitalize PM Report
Analysis
CMMS Report

Reliability
Analysis
PdM (Vibration) Data for ML/AI Data Source Example

Artificial Intelligent
Machine Learning
 Comprehensv
Web
Dashboard

Transient Interactive
Web
Analysis Report

PRiSM

Remaining Case
Knowledge
Useful Life Mngmnt

Alarm
Mngmnt
Visualization
 Solution Architecture
AVEVA Predictive Analytics Predictive Asset Analytics
AVEVA Predictive Analytics Web Web Server
Monitoring REST API
Alerts
Interfaces
Manager
Trending Alertsing

Reports Database & Archive

Equipment Monitoring
AVEVA Predictive Analytics Client Models Results

Model Building
Analytics Server
Analytics Alertsing
Alerts email
Monitoring
Interfaces Interfaces
Engine

Enterprise Insight Historical Data Source

Historian
Historian
ODBC
CSV Live Data Source

© 2020 AVEVA Solutions Limited and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.
 Requirements
Historian
• Historical data is required for the training of models
• Historians are typically the point of most consolidation
• Data collection available for major historians
• Wonderware Historian
• Wonderware eDNA
• Wonderware Online Insight
• OSISoft PI
• AspenTech IP.21
• ODBC
• OPC UA

© 2019 AVEVA Group plc and its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

Thank You