RESEARCH TOPIC PROPOSAL

I. BASIC INFORMATION

PROPOSED RESEARCH TITLE:

UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP PATTERNS AND FARMERS’

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Focus of Research:

The research to understand the impact of climate change on crop patterns and farmers adaptation strategies
Authors
Name:
Melchor, Kurt Maverick
Cabonce, John Ray
Ginaga, Khloee Cassandra
Beltran, John Kyle
Chan, Kian Geoff
Cortez, Carlgen Hasty
Dunca, Rough Lee
Corpuz, Abigail
Magday, Dhufnie Freyah
Olog, Katherine
Lopez, Joenah
Prado, Justin Mark
Veloria, Chrystal Mae

Brief Background of the Study

Climatically, the Philippines has been classified as one of the foremost disaster-prone nations within the
world (WB, 2015; UNU-EHS, 2011). In spite of the fact that annually tropical storms have long been the
standard, their expanded escalation, beside their related impacts (e.g. flooding, and dry seasons), may wreak
havoc on the agricultural division. Arrive utilise and yields are anticipated to be especially influenced by climate
change, and this is often likely to result in lower development of rancher wage and efficiency, expanded
disturbance to nourishment supplies, and a more noteworthy probability of harm to rural resources and
foundation, which is able in turn bring higher reclamation costs. These anticipated impacts have included
direness to the Philippines' reaction to climate change and moved the arrangement centre from recuperation and
coping with the consequences after the occasion, to a versatile approach to construct the resilience of cultivating
communities.

Cropping practices in the Philippines have been intensifying with greater demand for food and
agricultural supplies in view of an increasing population and advanced technologies for farming. This has not
been monitored regularly using traditional methods but alternative methods using remote sensing have been
promising yet underutilised. Land use statistics derived from these maps were compared with historical El Nino
events to examine how land area is affected by drought events. Fourteen maps of agricultural land use were
produced, with the primary classes being single-cropping, double-cropping and perennial crops with secondary
classes of forests, urban, bare, water and other classes. Primary classes were produced from the neural network
classifier while secondary classes were derived from NDVI threshold masks. The overall accuracy for the 2014
map was 62.05% and a kappa statistic of 0.45. 155.56% increase in single-cropping systems from 2001 to 2014
was observed while double cropping systems decreased by 14.83%. Perennials increased by 76.21% while
built-up areas decreased by 12.22% within the 14-year interval. There are several sources of error including
mixed-pixels, scale-conversion problems and limited ground reference data. An analysis including El Niño
events in 2004 and 2010 demonstrated that marginally irrigated areas that usually planted twice in a year
resorted to single cropping, indicating that scarcity of water limited the intensification allowable in the area.

Climate change could be a genuine danger to agribusiness and nourishment security. Extraordinary
climate conditions and changing patterns of precipitation lead to a diminish within the edit efficiency. Tall
temperatures and dubious precipitation diminish the grain abdication of crops by lessening the length of the
developing period. Future projections appear that temperature would be expanded by 2.5°C up to 2050. The
anticipated rise in temperature would cause the tall visit and drag out warm waves that can decrease the trim
generation. The rise in temperature comes about in colossal decrease in yield of agronomic crops. Supporting
the trim generation beneath the changing climate could be a key challenge. Hence, adjustment measures are
required to diminish the climate vulnerabilities.

The antagonistic impact of climate change can be moderated by creating warm tolerant cultivars and a
few adjustments in current generation advances. The advancement of adjustment techniques in the setting of
changing climate gives valuable data for the partners such as analysts, the scholarly world, and ranchers in
moderating the negative impacts of climate change.

Adopting diverse and resilient crop patterns is essential for building adaptive capacity in agriculture,
particularly in the face of climate change. By integrating various cropping strategies, farmers can enhance
ecosystem services, optimise resource use, and improve agricultural sustainability while mitigating risks
associated with environmental variability and uncertainty. Ongoing research, extension efforts, and policy
support are critical for promoting the adoption of adaptive crop patterns and ensuring food security in a
changing climate. Findings from this study can be used to predict future use of agricultural land in the country
and also examine how farmlands have responded to climatic factors and stressors.

Significance of the Study

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural systems worldwide, affecting crop patterns and
challenging farmers’ traditional practices. This study aims to delve into the nuanced impacts of climate change
on crop patterns and elucidate the adaptation strategies employed by farmers to mitigate its effects. By
understanding these dynamics, policymakers and agricultural stakeholders can develop targeted interventions to
support vulnerable farming communities.

At the heart of this research is the recognition that climate change alters long-standing crop patterns,
disrupting the predictability and stability that farmers rely on for livelihoods. This study seeks to capture the
lived experiences of farmers facing these challenges, offering insights into the specific crops most affected, the
timing and intensity of changes, and the resulting socio-economic implications. By gathering rich narratives and
contextualising the data within the broader socio-economic landscape. Furthermore, this research aims to
provide a holistic understanding of the multifaceted impacts of climate change on crop patterns.

Moreover, this study endeavours to explore the adaptation strategies adopted by farmers in response to
changing climatic conditions. By examining the diverse approaches employed by farmers—from traditional
knowledge and indigenous practices to technological innovations and policy interventions—this research seeks
to identify effective adaptation pathways. By documenting and analysing these strategies, this study aims to
contribute to the growing body of knowledge on climate change adaptation in agriculture, informing future
policy and practice.

In essence, this study on the impact of climate change on crop patterns and farmers’ adaptation strategies
offers a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between environmental shifts and agricultural practices.
By amplifying the voices of farmers and elucidating their coping mechanisms, this research seeks to empower
communities and facilitate informed decision-making in the face of climate uncertainty.

Farmers. The result of this study can be an eye-opener to many farmers as they will further understand
the effects of climate change to crop patterns and various adaptation strategies in place.

Definition of variables

AGRICULTURE – the science, art, or practice of cultivating the soil, producing crops, and raising livestock
and in varying degrees the preparation and marketing of the resulting products

CLIMATE CHANGE – the significant variation of average weather conditions becoming, for example,
warmer, wetter, or drier—over several decades or longer. It is the longer-term trend that differentiates climate
change from natural weather variability.

CROP PATTERN – refers to the spatial representation of crop rotations.

El NINO– is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial
Pacific Ocean. Trade winds and atmosphere are also impacted by El Niño.

Purpose of the study

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on crop patterns and adaptation strategies.
In layman’s terms, the researchers strive to answer the following:

1. How do changing climatic conditions influence the timing and success of planting, harvesting,
and other agricultural practices?
2. How do various adaptation strategies contribute to the resilience and productivity of agriculture
in the face of changing climatic conditions….?
2.1 Crop Diversification
2.2 Irrigation Technologies
2.3 Breeding for Climate Resilience
 3. What are the barriers to the adaption of adaptation measures among farmers, and how can they be
overcome?
4. What are the projected shifts in crop suitability and productivity under various climate change
scenarios?

Proposed Research Design

The Qualitative descriptive design will be utilised by the researchers.

Proposed Instrument

By examining the above aforementioned studies, the data gathering tool the study uses will be a semi-structured
interview. The researchers will interview during the participants’ most convenient time.

REFERENCES
Ahmed, I., Ullah, A., Rahman, M. H. u., Ahmad, B., Wajid, S. A., Ahmad, A., & Ahmed, S. (2019, May 30). Climate change
impacts and adaptation strategies for agronomic crops.
https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/67439?fbclid=IwAR0rmQvqnqPKsBhDNhGbgGfyL-Uhb3hlvNFxNdXEJPgnC0Z9DK
HB-GVbrHk

OECD (2017), Agricultural Policies in the Philippines, OECD Food and Agricultural Reviews, OECD Publishing, Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264269088-en.

Landicho, L., Paelmo, R., Cabahug, R., de Luna, C., Visco, R., & Tolentino, L. (2016). Climate change adaptation
strategies of smallholder agroforestry farmers in the Philippines. Journal of Environmental Science and Management,
19(1).

Dela Torre, D. M., & Perez, G. J. P. (2016, December). Cropping pattern detection and change analysis in Central Luzon,
Philippines using multi-temporal MODIS imagery and artificial neural network classifier.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC51B1145D/abstract