Analysing and Managing Business Data 4BUS1149

WATS 1 - Probability, Normal Distribution, Sampling and Confidence Intervals

All questions to be attempted. Max mark 40.

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This workbook is to be completed by filling in the yellow boxes and submitted via STUDYnet by
Friday 22nd March 2024 11.55pm
ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS
SECTION A: PROBABILITY

Question A1 [6 marks]
The table shows data about the production of Good or Defective items from suppliers in 3 towns.

Supplier: Aylesbury Bicester Chester Total

Good 363 134 251 748
Defective 24 15 21 60
Total 387 149 272 808
An item is chosen at random.
1) What is the probability that an item is Defective?

2) What is the probability that an item is NOT from Chester?

3) What is the probability that an item is from Aylesbury and is Good?

4) What is the probability that an item is from Chester or is Defective or both?

5) Given that an item is Defective, what is the probability that it is from Bicester?

6) If an item is known to be from Aylesbury, what is the probability that it is Good?

Question A2 [4 marks]
The probability that shop A is still trading at the end of June is 0.71.
Independently, the probability that shop B is still trading at the end of June is 0.84.
Calculate the probability that, at the end of June,

1) both shops are still trading

2) shop A is no longer trading but shop B is still trading

3) both shops are no longer trading

4) exactly one shop is still trading.

Question A3 [1 mark]
A new product is expected to generate the following profits/losses depending on the level of demand.

Level of demand Profit/Loss Probability

 High £83 000 profit 0.28
Medium £30 000 profit 0.35
Low £43 000 loss 0.37

What is the expected profit or loss from the new product?

Note: profit is a positive value and loss is a negative value.

Question A4 [3 marks]
The probability that a project is completed on time (includes early) is 0.83 for project A and
0.9 for project B. In each case the bonus for completing on time is £5000.
The lateness penalties (i.e. losses) are £12000 for project A and £20 000 for project B.

1) Calculate the probability that project A is late.

2) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) for project A.

3) What will the lateness penalty in B have to be changed to

so that the expected monetary value for project B is £3000?

SECTION B: NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Question B1 [4 marks]
The number of minutes per week that students spend surfing the internet is normally distributed
with a mean of 490 minutes and standard deviation of 51 minutes.
Calculate the probability that the time, in a week, a student spends surfing the internet is:

1) less than 440 minutes 0.1634

2) more than 525 minutes. 0.2463

3) between 420 minutes and 545 minutes. 0.7746

4) at least an hour every day on average. 1.0000

Question B2 [3 marks]
A vending machine dispenses coffee into cups.
The amount of coffee dispensed has a mean of 137 ml with a standard deviation of 8.5 ml .
Assume that the amount of coffee dispensed is normally distributed.

1) The cup has a volume of 150ml.

Calculate the probability that a cup will overflow when coffee is dispensed.

2) A sign on the machine indicates that each cup contains at least 120ml of coffee.
Calculate the probability that a cup of coffee dispensed by the machine will not meet this requirement

3) In order to be profitable, a cup must contain more than 115 ml of coffee but less than 144 ml of coffee.
Calculate the probability that a cup of coffee dispensed by the machine will be profitable

Question B3 [2 marks]
You are advised to plot the graphs of the data given in Tables 1 and 2 below (on a separate spreadsheet) in order to a
 TABLE 1 The data below shows the number of cars per minute entering a car park.
Number of cars 0 1 2 3 4
Frequency 4 17 26 32 19

TABLE 2 The data below shows the time taken, to the nearest minute, for employees at a clothing manufacture
Time (min) 17 18 19 20 21
Frequency 3 9 18 29 43

1) Decide whether you think the following statements are TRUE or FALSE.

First “The data in TABLE 1 follow a Normal Distribution.”

Second “The data in TABLE 2 follow a Normal Distribution.”

If you think: First Second then Enter

1 TRUE 1
1 FALSE 2
0 TRUE 3
0 FALSE 4
4 (1, 2, 3 or 4)

2) Use your graph for the data in TABLE 2 to determine, to the nearest minute,
the mean time for an employee to produce a shirt.

Question B4 [2 marks]
The marketing manager at a retailer wants to encourage customers to increase their spending.
She knows that the amount customers spend is normally distributed with a mean of £57 and standard deviation of £

1) Customers who spent less than £M will be given ‘money off vouchers’.
If 18% of customers are in this category, find the value of M.

2) The top spending 12% of customers will be given ‘VIP Customer Rewards’.
Calculate the minimum spend required to qualify for these Rewards.

Question B5 [2 marks]
The profits of 200 franchises are normally distributed with a mean of £10500 and a standard deviation of £3700 .

1) Calculate, correct to one decimal place, an estimate of how many franchises made a profit of £5000 or m

2) The five most profitable franchises get a GoldStar award.

Calculate, correct to the nearest pound, an estimate of the minimum profit required to get a GoldStar aw

SECTION C: SAMPLING AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Question C1 [3 marks]
The manager of ‘Care-Full’ wants to select a random sample of 4 employees from his workforce of 10 Care Workers.
He first assigns each Care Worker a random number (to 2 d.p.) as shown in the table below

Name H.Amla S.Bates L.Patel H.Lara B.Obama

Staff Number 101 102 103 104 105
 Random Number 0.2 0.86 0.22 0.84 0.41

1) Using the 'Random Sampling Method 2' outlined in the lecture, what is the staff number of the third Car

2) Decide whether the following statement is true (enter1), false (enter 2) or it is not possible to tell (enter
“For the sampling method used in part 1), each employee from the workforce had an equal chance of be

3) Which one of the following Excel functions (with answers rounded to 2 decimal places) could be used to
• =RANDOM() (Enter 1)
• =RANDOM(0.01,0.99) (Enter 2)
• =RAND() (Enter 3)
• =RAND(0,1) (Enter 4)
• =RANDBETWEEN(0.01,0.99) (Enter 5) 3

Question C2 [2 marks]
A haulage company employs 156 drivers, 36 office workers and 48 mechanics.
A manager selects a sample of 20 employees using random stratified sampling.

1) How many drivers are selected?

2) What percentage of the sample of 20 employees are mechanics?

Question C3 [2 marks]
A Quality Control Manager takes a systematic sample of size 6 from a total of 48 components.

1) Calculate the sampling interval to be used.

2) Suppose a random number of 3 is generated to start the sampling process.

If the components are numbered 1 to 48, state the number of the 3rd component selected in the sample

Question C4 [3 marks]
A recruitment agency has four offices with five employees in each office as shown in the table below

Office 1 Office 2
Random Number: 0.97 Random Number:
Employee Staff No. Random No. Employee Staff No.
P. Abu 11 0.83 D.Abbott 21
J. Baker 12 0.56 A.Rayner 22
H. Lu 13 0.09 K.Starmer 23
Y.E. Shin 14 0.86 E.Miliband 24
G. Yates 15 0.29 D.Lammy 25

The Managing Director of the agency wants to select a working party of 4 employees using multi-stage cluster sampl

Using the offices as clusters, the Managing Director assigns each office a random number as shown in the table.
Two offices are chosen for sampling.
1) State the Office Number of the first of the offices chosen for sampling.

Each employee has been assigned a random number and two employees from each of the chosen offices are selecte
2) State the Staff Number of the first employee chosen from the office stated in Part 1)
 3) State the Staff Number of the first employee chosen from the other office chosen for sampling.

Question C5 [1 mark]
Decide whether you think the following statements are TRUE or FALSE.

First “Quota Sampling is a random sampling method.”

Second “Using a Snowball Sampling method will ensure the organiser of a survey chooses a sample which is repr

If you think: First Second then Enter

1 TRUE 1
1 FALSE 2
0 TRUE 3
0 FALSE 4
4 (1, 2, 3 or 4)

Question C6 [2 marks]
A random sample of 150 kitchen cabinets are measured and the mean length is found to be 749 mm with a standard
Find an 80% confidence interval for the mean cabinet length.

1) Lower limit of the confidence interval 748.05 to 2 dp

2) Upper limit of the confidence interval 749.95 to 2 dp

rs in 3 towns.

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

to 4dp

e level of demand.
 to nearest £

to nearest £

distributed

to 4 dp

to 4 dp.

to 4 dp

to 4 dp

0.0631 to 4 dp

will not meet this requirement 0.0228 to 4 dp

but less than 144 ml of coffee.

will be profitable 0.7901 to 4 dp

parate spreadsheet) in order to answer the questions.

 5 6 7 8
10 4 2 1

yees at a clothing manufacturer to produce a shirt.

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
53 55 52 41 26 18 13 8

23

£57 and standard deviation of £16.

£42.35 to 2 dp

£75.80 to 2 dp

andard deviation of £3700 .

ises made a profit of £5000 or more. 186.3 to 1 dp

fit required to get a GoldStar award. £17,752 to nearest £

workforce of 10 Care Workers.

V.Kholi P.Conti H.Wells Q.Zhang G.Kruis

106 107 108 109 110
 0.29 0.51 0.78 0.33 0.59

he staff number of the third Care Worker chosen for the sample? 106 Enter Staff Number

or it is not possible to tell (enter 3).

force had an equal chance of being selected.” 1 Enter 1, 2 or 3

ecimal places) could be used to generate the random numbers in the table above?

1, 2, 3, 4 or 5

to 1dp

mponent selected in the sample.

the table below

Office 3 Office 4
0.25 Random Number: 0.52 Random Number: 0.14
Random No. Employee Staff No. Random No. Employee Staff No. Random No.
0.73 M.Gove 31 0.88 V.Cable 41 0.74
0.66 B.Johnson 32 0.49 E.Davey 42 0.31
0.28 P.Patel 33 0.19 L.Moran 43 0.64
0.33 G.Shapps 34 0.08 J.Swinson 44 0.78
0.4 E.Truss 35 0.27 C.Umunna 45 0.27

using multi-stage cluster sampling (using the same procedure as given in the lecture slides).

mber as shown in the table.

4 Enter 1, 2, 3 or 4

of the chosen offices are selected using Random Sampling.

ed in Part 1) 45 Enter Staff Number
e chosen for sampling. 23 Enter Staff Number

chooses a sample which is representative of the target group.”

d to be 749 mm with a standard deviation of 9.1 mm.

30 31
5 2
 Question B3 [2 marks]
You are advised to plot the graphs of the data given in Tables 1 and 2 below (on a separate spreadsheet

TABLE 1 The data below shows the number of cars per minute entering a car park.
Number of cars 0 1 2 3 4
Frequency 4 17 26 32 19

TABLE 2 The data below shows the time taken, to the nearest minute, for employees at a clothing m
Time (min) 17 18 19 20 21
Frequency 3 9 18 29 43

Table 1
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Question C1 [3 marks]
Staff Random
Name
Number Number
H.Amla 101 0.2
L.Patel 103 0.22 Using the 'Random Sampling Method 2' outlined in the lecture, w
V.Kholi 106 0.29
Q.Zhang 109 0.33
B.Obama 105 0.41
P.Conti 107 0.51
G.Kruis 110 0.59
H.Wells 108 0.78
H.Lara 104 0.84
S.Bates 102 0.86
 below (on a separate spreadsheet) in order to answer the questions.

ering a car park.

5 6 7 8
10 4 2 1

ute, for employees at a clothing manufacturer to produce a shirt.

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
53 55 52 41 26 18 13 8 5

Table 2
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
16 18 20 22 24 26

Method 2' outlined in the lecture, what is the staff number of the third Care Worker chosen for the sample?

106
 31
2

Table 2

22 24 26 28 30 32