Grade 12 GS

Probability ex 14

K.H
By Mr.Kassem Hodeib
K.H
 Exercise 14: “If then question or two actions:
K.H
An urn U contains six balls: four red balls and two blue balls.
A bag S contains five bills: one 50 000 LL bill, two 20 000 LL bills and two 10 000 LL bills.
Part A: One ball is randomly drawn from U
If this ball is red, then two bills are drawn successively without replacement at random from S.
If this ball is blue, then three bills are drawn simultaneously at random from S.
Consider the following events:
𝑆
50 k 20 k 20 k
R: “the drawn ball is red”.
A: “the sum of the values of the bills drawn is 70 000 LL”. 10 k 10 k

𝑈
K.H 𝑆
50 k 20 k 20 k
𝐶41 /𝑅
𝐶61 𝑅
𝑈 10 k 10 k
• 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑛 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑈:

𝐶21 /𝑅ത 𝑆
20 k 20 k
𝑅ത 50 k
𝐶61
10 k 10 k

1) a- Calculate the probability 𝑃(𝐴Τ𝑅ሻ and deduce that 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝑅ሻ=2/15.

1 2 1 1 4 2
• 𝑃(𝐴/𝑅)= × × 2! = • 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝑅ሻ= 𝑃(𝐴/𝑅)× 𝑃(𝑅ሻ = × =
5 4 5 5 6 15

ത and deduce P(A).

b- Calculate P(A∩𝑅)
2 1 1
ത ത ത 𝐶 × 𝐶 2
• 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝑅 ሻ= 𝑃(𝐴/𝑅)× 𝑃(𝑅ሻ = 2 1
× =
𝐶53 6 30
2 1 1
• P(A)= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝑅ሻ + P A ∩ 𝑅ത = + =
15 30 6
 3) Knowing that the sum of the values of the drawn bills is 70000 LL, what is the probability that the ball
K.H selected from U is red?
2
P R∩𝐴 4
• P(R/A)= = 15 =
𝑃(𝐴ሻ 1 5
6

Part B:
In this part, two bills are drawn successively with replacement at random from the bag S.
Calculate P(sum of drawn bills ≥ 70000).
𝑆
• P(S≥ 70 k)) = 𝑃(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑖𝑠 70𝑘ሻ + P Sum is 100 𝑘 50 k 20 k 20 k

= 𝑃(50𝑘 20𝑘 𝑜𝑟 20𝑘 50𝑘ሻ + P 50𝑘 50𝑘 10 k 10 k

1 2 2 1 1 1 1
= × + × + × =
5 5 5 5 5 5 5