Department of Education

Region VI – Western Visayas

Division of Aklan
District of Madalag
Madalag National High School
Madalag, Aklan

PROBABILITY
Probability – a branch of mathematics that refers to as the measure of chance or possibilities.
Short History of Probability
Gambling was popular and fashionable. Not restricted by law. As the games became more complicated and
the stakes became larger there was a need for mathematical methods for computing chances.
A well-known gambler, the chevalier De Mere consulted Blaise Pascal in Paris about some questions about
some games of chance. Pascal began to correspond with his friend Pierre Fermat about these problems.
The correspondence between Pascal and Fermat is the origin of the mathematical study of probability. The
method they developed is now called the classical approach to computing probabilities. The method: Suppose a
game has n equally likely outcomes, of which m outcomes correspond to winning. Then the probability of
winning is m/n.
James Bernoulli proved that the frequency method and the classical method are consistent with one another
in his book Ars Conjectandi in 1713. Another method, known as the frequency method had also been used for
some time. This method consists of repeating a game a large number of times under the same conditions. The
probability of winning is then approximately equal to the proportion of wins in the repeats. This method was
used by Pascal and Fermat to verify results obtained by the classical method.
Abraham De Moivre provided many tools to make the classical method more useful, including the
multiplication rule, in his book The Doctrine of Chances in 1718. The book was popular, eventually going
through three editions.
Throughout the 18th century, the application of probability moved from games of chance to scientific
problems: Mathematical theory of life insurance - life tables. Biological problems - what is the probability of
being born female or male?
Pierre-Simon Laplace presented a mathematical theory of probability with an emphasis on scientific
applications in his 1812 book Theorie Analytique des Probabilities. Unfortunately, Laplace only considered
the classical method, leaving no indication on how the method was to be applied to general problems.
After the publication of Laplace’s book, the mathematical development of probability stagnated for many
years. By 1850, many mathematicians found the classical method to be unrealistic for general use and were
attempting to redefine probability in terms of the frequency method.These attempts were never fully accepted
and the stagnation continued.
Andrey Kolmogorov developed the first rigorous approach to probability in his 1933 monograph
Grundbegriffe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnun. He built up probability theory from fundamental axioms in a
way comparable with Euclid's treatment of geometry. Modern research in probability theory is closely related to
the mathematical field of measure theory.

A. Counting Principle
1. Addition Principle of Counting – if event A can occur in m ways and event B can occur in n ways,
then A or B can occur in m + n ways.
Illustrative Examples 1:
Double A bakery has 10 hopia, 14 chocolate cupcakes and 8 cheesy ensaymada left at the end of
a day. Joey rushes in as they are about to close. How many types of bread can he choose from?
Solution:
Since the breads are all different, add the quantities of these breads to find the number types of
bread he can choose.
10 + 14 + 8 = 32
Joey has a choice of 32 breads.

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 Illustrative Examples 2:
The Supreme Students Government requires one student representative from either first year or
the second year or the third year. If there are 28 first year, 35 second year, and 39 third year
qualified students, how many different choices for representatives are there?
Solution:
28 + 35 + 39 = 102 There are 102 choices for representatives.
2. Multiplication Principle of Counting or Fundamental Counting Principle – suppose that two events
happen in order. If the first event can happen in m ways and the second in n ways (after the first has
happened). Then the two events can occur in m x n ways.
Illustrative Example 3:
Espie’s Ice Cream Parlor offers 12 flavors of ice-cream which can be served on a waffle, sugar
or plain cone. How many different single scoop ice-cream cones is it possible to buy at the
parlor?
Solution:
There are two choices: type of cone and flavor of ice-cream. At the first stage, we choose a type
of cone and at the second stage we choose a flavor. If there are 3 types of cones and 12 flavors of
ice cream, then: 3 x 12 = 36 ways of choosing a single scoop ice-cream cone at the parlor flavor.
Illustrative Example 4:
In 2014, automobile license plates display 3 letters followed by 4 digits. How many such plates
are possible if repetition of letters
a. is allowed
b. is not allowed
Solution:
a. There are seven choices, one for each letter or digit on the license plate. There are 26 letters in
English alphabet and 10 numerical digits, then
26 x 26 x 26 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 175, 760, 000
b. If repetition of letters is not allowed, then we can arrange the choices as follows:
26 x 25 x 24 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 156, 000, 000
Illustrative Example 5:
In how many ways can we select two books from different subjects from among 7 distinct Math
books, 5 distinct Science books and 4 distinct English books?

Solution:
This problem is combination of addition and multiplication principles of counting. Using
multiplication principle, we can select two books in the following:
1 Math and 1 Science  7 x 5 = 35 ways
1 Science and 1 English  5 x 4 = 20 ways
1 Math and 1 English  7 x 4 = 28 ways
Since the three sets of selections are disjoint, we may use the addition principle, 35 + 20 + 28 =
83. There are 83 ways of selecting two books from among the Science, Math and English books.
B. Factorial Notation
Factorial n denoted by n!, and is defined as n! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) . . . (3)(2)(1). The product 3 x 2 x 1 can
be written in brief factorial notation as 3! (read as “three factorial” or “factorial 3”).
For the number 0, 0! = 1. We define 0! as 1, so that certain formulas can be stated concisely and with
consistent pattern.
Illustrative Example 1: Illustrative Example 6:
7! = 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 5,040 7! – 5! = ?
6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720 7! – 5! = (7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) –
5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 2 x 1)
4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24 7! – 5! = 5,040 – 120
3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 7! – 5! = 4,920
2! = 2 x 1 = 2
1! = 1
0! = 1

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 Illustrative Example 2: Illustrative Example 7:
4! + 5! = ? (4! – 15)! = ?
4! + 5! = (4 x 3 x 2 x 1) + (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) (4! – 15)! = [(4 x 3 x 2 x 1) – 15]!
4! + 5! = 24 + 120 (4! – 15)! = (24 – 15)!
4! + 5! = 144 (4! – 15)! = 9!
(4! – 15)! = 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1
(4! – 15)! = 362,880
Illustrative Example 3: Illustrative Example 8:
(9 – 4)! = ? 6!/4!3! = ?
(9 – 4)! = (5)! 6!/4!3! = (6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)/[(4 x 3 x 2 x 1) x
(9 – 4)! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (3 x 2 x 1)]
(9 – 4)! = 120 6!/4!3! = 720/(24 x 6)
6!/4!3! = 720/144
6!/4!3! = 5
Illustrative Example 4: Illustrative Example 9:
4! 3! = ? 5!/(5 – 2)! = ?
4! 3! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 2 x 1 5!/(5 – 2)! = (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)/3!
4! 3! = 24 x 6 5!/(5 – 2)! = (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)/(3 x 2 x 1)
4! 3! = 144 5!/(5 – 2)! = 120/6
5!/(5 – 2)! = 20
Illustrative Example 5: Illustrative Example 10:
7! – 5! = ? 101!/99! = ?
7! – 5! = (7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) – 101!/99! = 101 x 100 x 99! / 99!
(5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 2 x 1) 101!/99! = 101 x 100
7! – 5! = 5,040 – 120 101!/99! = 10,100
7! – 5! = 4,920

C. Permutation

The term permutation refers to the arrangement of object in which order is important. Each arrangement
can be made using all or some elements of the set of objects without repetition. Given a set with n objects, then
we can take r objects from the set. The total number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
represented by the notation ❑n Pr , P(n , r ), or Pnr and be evaluated using the formula,
❑ n!
n Pr =
( n−r ) !
❑
where n is the number of objects and r is the number of objects taken from n at a time. The notation n Pr ,
P(n , r ), or Pnr is read as “the number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time”.
❑
Note that in this hand outs we are going to use the notation n Pr .
Illustrative Example 1:
How many arrangements can be made using the letters A, B, C, and D taken 2 at a time?
Solution:
Using the formula,
❑ n! ❑ 4! 4 ! 4 ×3 ×2 !
n Pr = = 4 P2 = = = =4 ×3=12 different ways
( n−r ) ! ( 4−2 ) ! 2! 2!
Using listing method we determine the number of possible arrangement, we can have the following
combination:
AB BA BC CB
AC CA BD DB
AD DA CD DC
Note that in permutation, AB is different from BA.

PERMUTATION RULE 1 (Permutation of n Objects Taken r at a Time)

The arrangement of n objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is given by the formula
❑ n!
n Pr = , where r ≤ n.
( n−r ) !
Illustrative Example 2:
Suppose there are eight machines, but only three spaces in the display room are available for the
machines. In how many different ways can the eight machines be arranged in the three available
spaces?

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 Solution:
There are 8 machines: n = 8 but only 3 machines can be displayed r = 3.
❑ n! 8! 8 ! 8 ×7 ×6 × 5 !
n Pr = =❑8 P3 = = = =8 ×7 × 6=336 ways
( n−r ) ! ( 8−3 ) ! 5 ! 5!
Illustrative Example 3:
How many different signals can be made using five flags if all the flags must be used in each
signal?
Solution:
There are 5 flags: n = 5 and all the flags must be used r = 5.
❑ n! 5! 5 ! 5 × 4 × 3× 2× 1
n Pr = =❑5 P5= = = =120 different signals
( n−r ) ! ( 5−5 ) ! 0! 1

PERMUTATION RULE 2 (Circular Permutation)

The arrangement of n objects in a circular pattern is given by the formula P = (n – 1)!.
Illustrative Example 4:
In how many ways can six persons be seated around a circular table?
Solution:
Since this is a circular permutation of 6 things, therefore:
P = (n-1)! = (6-1)! = 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 possible seating arrangements
Illustrative Example 5:
In how many ways can 5 keys be arranged in a key ring?
Solution:
P = (n-1)! = (5-1)! = 4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24 possible arrangements

PERMUTATION RULE 3 (Distinguishable Permutation)

The number of permutations of n objects in which r 1 are alike, r 2 are alike, r 3 are alike, … etc, is
n!
P= where r1 + r2 + r3 + rn = n.
r1 ! r2 ! r3 ! … r n !
Illustrative Example 6:
Find the numbers of different ways of placing 15 balls in a row given that 5 are red, 4 are green,
3 are yellow, 2 are blue and one black.
Solution:
We want to find the number of distinguishable permutations of 5 different color of balls, by the
formula
n = 15
red = 5 green = 4 yellow = 3 blue = 2 black = 1
r1 = 5 r2 = 4 r3 = 3 r4 = 2 r5 = 1
n! 15 !
P= = =37 , 837 , 800 distinguishable permutation
r 1 ! r 2 ! r 3 ! … r n ! 5 ! 4 ! 3! 2 ! 1 !

Illustrative Example 7:
How many ways can we arrange the letters in the word COMMITTEE?
Solution:
Using the formula for distinguishable permutation,
n=9
C=1 O=1 M=2 I=1 T=2 E=2
r1 = 1 r2 = 1 r3 = 2 r4 = 1 r5 = 2 r6 = 2

n! 9!
P= = =45 , 360 different arrangement
r 1 ! r 2 ! r 3 ! … r n ! 1 ! 1! 2 ! 1 ! 2! 2 !

D. Combination
Suppose we are interested only in the number of ways that r objects can be selected from a given
number of objects. If the order of the objects is not important, the total of orders or arrangement is called
combination.
The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is denoted by nCr or C(n,r), and given by the
formula:

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 n!
nCr=
(n — r )! r !
n!
Notice that the formula for nCr is the same in the permutation formula with an r! in the
(n — r )!
denominator. This r! divides out the duplicates from the number of permutations.
Illustration Example 1:
Given the letters A, B, C, and D, list the permutations and combinations for selecting two letters.
Solution:
❑ n! 4! 4!
n Pr = = = =12 different ways
( n−r ) ! ( 4−2 ) ! 2!
❑ n! 4! 4!
nC r= = = =6 different ways
( n−r ) ! r ! ( 4−2 ) ! 2! 2 ! 2 !

Permutations Combinations
AB BA BC CB AB BC
AC CA BD DB AC BD
AD DA CD DC AD CD
Note that in permutation, AB is different from BA but in combination, AB is the same as BA.
Illustrative Example 2:
In how many ways can a 5 men committee be formed from 9 people?
Solution:
We wish to determine the number of groups that may be formed from 9 people taken 5 at a time.
Hence we wish to compute for 9C5.
9! 9!
❑9 C 5= = =126
( 9−5 ) ! 5 ! 4 ! 5 !
Therefore, there are 126 committees can be formed made up of 5 members taken from 9 people.
Illustrative Example 3:
A class is made up of 15 boys and 20 girls. In how many ways can a social action group is to be
made up of 3 boys and 4 girls?
Solution:
The number of groups of 3 boys that can be formed from 15 boys is
15 ! 15 !
❑15 C 3= = =455
( 15−3 ) ! 3 ! 12! 3 !
Similarly, the number of 4 girls that can be made formed from 20 girls is
20 ! 20 !
❑20 C 4= = =4845
( 20−4 ) ! 4 ! 16 ! 4 !
Using the fundamental counting principle since the two events must occur simultaneously we
have:
445 x 4,845 = 2, 204, 475
Hence, there are 2, 204, 475 possible ways to form a group of 3 boys and 4 girls from a class that
is composed of 15 boys and 20 girls.

Illustration Example 4:
A committee of 5 people must be selected from 5 accountants and 8 educators. How many ways
can the selection be done if there are at least 3 educators in the committee?
Solution:
The committee can consists of 3 educators and 2 accountants, or 4 educators and 1 accountant, or
5 educators. To find the different possibilities, find each combination separately, and then add
them.
❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ 8! 5! 8! 5! 8!
8C 3 ∙ 5C 2 + 8C 4 ∙ 5C 1+ 8C 5= ∙ + ∙ +
5 ! 3 ! 3 ! 2 ! 4 ! 4 ! 4 ! 1 ! 3! 5 !
¿ 56 ∙ 10+70∙ 5+56=560+350+56=966 different committees
Note: the word and means to multiply, and the word or means to add.

E. Basic Concept of Probability

Probability refers to the likelihood for something to happen. It is also often refer to as the measure of
chance.

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 In simple probability, activities like tossing of coins and rolling of dice are called experiments. These are
activities with observable results. The possible results of the experiment are called outcomes. The set of all
possible outcomes of an experiment is called a sample space. Any subset of possible outcomes for an
experiment is known as an event. When an event involves a single element of the sample space, it is often called
a simple event.
Experiment Sample Space (S) Events (E)
 Head or Tail  The event that a head will
 Tossing a coin S={H, T} occur.
E = {H}
 The event that even
 Rolling a die S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} number appears.
E = {2, 4, 6}
 Identical number cards (1,  The event that the number
2, …, 10) are placed in a drawn is prime.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
box and a card is drawn at E = {2, 3, 5, 7}
random.
 Two red balls and five blue  The event that a blue ball
balls of the same size are will be drawn.
S = {R, R, B, B, B, B, B}
placed in a jar and a ball is E = {B, B, B, B, B}
drawn at random
F. Probability of Simple Events
If an event E has n(E) equally likely outcomes and its sample space has n(S) likely outcomes, then the
probability of event E is:
n(E) number of elements∈ E
P ( E )= =
n(S) number of elements∈S
The following are useful properties of probability of simple events:
1. A probability is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive. The closer the probability of an event to 1,
the more likely the event to happen and the closer the probability of an event to zero, the less likely
to happen.
2. The probability of an event that cannot happen is 0.
3. The probability of an event that must happen is 1.
4. If the probability of an event E is P, then the probability of the compliment of E is 1 – P.
Illustrative Example 1:
A die is rolled. Find the probability that the number turned up is:
1. more than 1.
2. an odd number.
Solution:
a. There are 6 possible outcomes S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, five which is more than 1, E = {2, 3, 4, 5,
6}. Hence the probability of the numbered turned up more than 1 is:
number of turned up more than 1 5
P ( E )= =
total number of outcomes 6
b. Of the six total turned up, three are odd number E = {1, 3, 5}. Hence, the probability that the
number turned up is odd is:
number of turned up more than 1 3 1
P ( E )= = =
total number of outcomes 6 2
Illustrative Example 2:
If a coin is tossed three times, find the probability of:
a. getting exactly two tails
b. getting at least two tails
c. getting no tails
Solution:
a. The sample space of this experiment are eight possible outcome and the event (E) that contains
exactly two tails is E: {TTH, THT, HTT}, by definition of probability of simple event:
number of getting exactly two tails n(E) 3
P ( E )= =
total number of possible outcomes n(S) 8
b. The event contains at least two tails has four outcomes: E = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT}, thus
number of getting at least two tails n(E) 4 1
P ( E )= = =
total number of possible outcomes n(S) 8 2
c. The event of getting “no tail” has one element; E = {HHH}, thus

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 number of getting no tail n (E) 1
P ( E )= =
total number of possible outcomes n(S) 8

G. Probability of Union of Two Events

1. Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events – two events that have no outcome in common are said to
be mutually exclusive. For example, in drawing a card from a deck, the events
A: The card is an ace
A: The card is a queen
are mutually exclusive, because a card cannot be both an ace and a queen.
Formula: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P ( A∨B ) =P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A )+ P(B)
Illustrative Example 1:
What is the probability of drawing a Queen or a King on an ordinary deck of cards?
Solution:
Since a card cannot be both a queen and a king, then the events are mutually exclusive, thus
P(queen or king) = P(queen) + P(king)
4 4 8 2
P ( queen∨king )= + = =
52 52 52 13
Illustrative Example 2:
A bag contains 7 white balls, 11 orange balls and 12 red balls. If a ball is drawn, find the
probability that it is a white or a red ball.
Solution:
Since the ball cannot be both white and red, the events are mutually exclusive.
7 12 19
P ( white∨red ) =P ( white ∪ red ) = + =
30 30 30

2. Probability of Not Mutually Exclusive Events – If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive,
then they share outcomes in common. The overlap of the two sets is their intersection, that is, A ∩ B.
Again, we are interested in the event of A or B, so we must count the elements in A ∪ B. If we simply
added the number of elements in A to the number of elements in B, then we would be counting the
elements in the overlap twice – once in A and once in B. So, to get the correct total, we must subtract the
number of elements in A ∩ B.
Formula: If A and B are events that are not mutually exclusive, then the probability of A or B is
P ( A∨B ) =P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A )+ P ( B )−P( A ∩ B)

Illustrative Example 3:
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, find the probability of getting a heart or a face
card.
Solution:
P (Heart or Face Card) = P(Heart Card) + P(Face Card) – P(Heart-Face Card)
P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A ∩ B)
13 12 3 22 11
¿ + − = =
52 52 52 52 26

H. Probability of Dependent and Independent Events

Two events may happen at the same time or one after the other. Two events are independent if the
occurrence of that of the first event does not affect that of the second.
1. Probability of the Intersection of Two Independent Events – if events A and B are independent, the
probability of both events occurring is found by multiplying the probabilities of the events.
If A and B are independent events in a sample space S, then the probability that both A and B occur is
P (A and B) = P (A  B) = P (A)  P (B)
Illustrative Example 1:
A bag contains 4 blue, 3 white and 5 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn at random with
replacements. Find the probability that the first ball is red then the second is blue.
Solution:
P (A  B) = P (A)  P (B)
5 4 5
P ( red , thenblue )= ∙ =
12 12 36

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 Illustrative Example 2:
Find the probability of tossing of dice and getting a 3 on each one.
Solution:
P (A  B) = P (A)  P (B)
1 1 1
P ( A ∪ B )= × =
6 6 36

Illustrative Example 3:
From a group of 5 boys and 6 girls, a committee is to be formed consisting of four members.
What is the probability that the committee will consists of 2 boys and 2 girls?
Solution:
5C2 = number of ways that the boys can be represented
6C2 = number of ways that the girls can be represented
11C4 = number of ways 4 students can be represented
❑ ❑
5C 2 ∙ 6C 2 ( 10 ) (15) 5
P ( 2 B ∩2 G )= ❑ = =
11 C 4
330 11
The probability of the committee to comprise of 2 boys and 2 girls is 5/11 or 45.45%

2. Probability of Two Dependent Events – when the outcome of one event affects the outcome of a
second event, the events are dependent. The probability of an event B occurring given that an event A has
already occurred in P (B/A), read as “the probability of B given A”. Thus,
P (A and B) = P (A  B) = P(A)  P (B following A)

Illustrative Example 1:
A bag contains 4 blue, 3 white and 5 red marbles. Two marbles are drawn at random without
replacement. Find the probability that the first ball is red then the second ball is blue.
Solution:
P (red) = 5/12
P (blue after red) = 4/11 without replacement, thus there will only be 11 balls left
5 4 20 5
P ( red , thenblue )= × = =
12 11 132 33

Illustrative Example 2:
You randomly select two cards from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that the
first card is not a face card and the second card is a face card if
a. you replace the first card before selecting the second, and
b. you do not replace the first card?
Solution:
a. With replacement of cards
40 12 10 3 30
P ( A ∪ B )= × = × =
52 52 13 13 169
b. Without replacement
40 12 10 12 120
P ( A ∩B )= × = × =
52 51 13 51 663

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