Managingprojectrisk 20230207 Nonotes 1676040187186

Click to edit Master title style
Project Risk Management

Reduce project uncertainty using effective risk management
Andrew D McGregor
The Chaos Report

The Standish Group 2020
3
EXERCISE
1
My expectation for this course is ...

A project is a temporary endeavor

undertaken to develop a unique product or service
ClickProjects
to edit Master title style
are inherently uncertain
p o rar y
Tem
ClickProjects
rar y Uniq
p o u e
Tem
ClickProjects
e
p o rar y Uniq
u e Chang
Tem agent
s
ClickProjects
e
p o rar y Uniq
u e Chang C om
plex
Tem agent
s
ClickProjects
e
p o rar y Uniq
u e Chang C om
plex Non-
Tem agent
s al
physic
Duration on any given day
Frequency
10 15 20 25 30 40 60 90
Duration (minutes)
Click
Iterativeto editrisk
project Master titleprocess
management style
Monitoring, control Risk
and review identification
Risk Risk
response execution assessment
Risk response Risk response

action planning strategy selection
13
EXERCISE
2
Please write down one risk from your current or a

previous project, articulating it clearly so that it is self-
explanatory and easily understood by someone else.
Your comments and questions

Click
management style
Risk Risk

16
Does uncertainty risk?

Click
POLL to edit Master title style
A – Yes
B – No
C – Probably
Will it rain in London next week?
D – Possibly
E – We don’t know
F – Who cares?
Uncertainty RISK Objectives

“An uncertain event or set of

circumstances that, should it
occur, will have an effect on
the achievement of the
project’s objective/s.”
EXERCISE
Click tothat,
edit Master
should it occur, willtitle style
An uncertain event or set of circumstances
have an effect on
3 the achievement of the project’s objective/s
Update your risk to the extent needed for it to conform to this definition
EXERCISE
Click toAnedit Master title style
uncertain event or set of circumstances
that, should it occur, will have an effect on
4 the achievement of the project’s objective/s
Select those that you think are project risks
1. Our project may run over budget.

2. Our project is under-resourced.
3. Due to several projects having higher priority, we are short-staffed.
4. We predict that we will miss our deadline.
5. The project is using new and unproven technology.
6. A critical service provider may deliver a key component late.
“One of the greatest
impediments is lack of
clarity of thought, which is
often a reflection of the
lack of clarity in
articulation.”
Madhucchanda Sen,
An Introduction to Critical
Thinking
“The most common error made

during risk identification is to fail to
distinguish between causes of risk,
genuine risks, and the effects of
risks.”
Dr David Hillson
The Risk Doctor
Risk “meta-language”
Risk
Uncertainty
Cause Risk
Existing condition
Uncertainty
(Fact)
Cause Risk Result
Existing condition Effect/s on

Uncertainty
(Fact) objectives
Cause Risk Result
Existing condition Effect/s on

Uncertainty
(Fact) objectives
As a result of <existing condition>,

it is possible that <uncertain event or set of circumstances may occur>,
which could lead to <effect/s on objectives>.
which could lead to <effect/s on objectives>.”
As a result of the storms being forecast for next weekend, it is possible that
our flight to LA may be cancelled which could lead to us missing my
brother’s wedding.
As a result of the global microchip shortage, it is possible that we might not

be able to procure sufficient stock of chips, which could lead to a 3-month
delay in the launch of our new product range.
EXERCISE
5
Redraft your risk using the risk meta-language

Your questions
An uncertain future event or

condition that, if it occurs, has a
positive or negative effect on at
least one project objective.
An uncertain future event or

condition that, if it occurs, has a
positive or negative effect on at
least one project objective.
Positive risks are OPPORTUNITIES
Negative risks are THREATS

EXERCISE
6
Try your hand at crafting an opportunity for your

current (or recent) project
How did you find that exercise?

PULSE Was it easy to articulate one or two
opportunities?
S W
Strengths Weaknesses
O T
Opportunities Threats
Click to edit Master titleLimitation,
stylefault or defect
S W
Characteristic, resource
or capacity that helps that hinders achievement
to achieve project of project objectives
objectives
Potentially favorable Potentially unfavorable
O T
situation that might situation that might
positively affect the Opportunities negatively affect the
Threats
project project
S W
O T
Opportunities Threats
Because we have <strength>,
it is possible that we may be able to gain <opportunity>,
which could lead to <positive effect/s on objectives>.
Because we have <weakness>,

it is possible that we could be vulnerable to <threat>, which
could lead to <negative effect/s on objectives>.
Because we have concluded the Gateway Software acquisition,
it is possible that we may be able to gain additional coding capacity,
which could lead to fast-tracking our app development.
Because we have to replace our Python developer,

it is possible that we could be vulnerable to a possible delay in
that section of the code, which could lead to delayed delivery
of the prototype.
If we could remove or relax a <constraint>,
If <positive assumption> proves false,

it is possible that we could be vulnerable to <threat>, which
could lead to <negative effect/s on objectives>.
If we could relax the policy of using local suppliers,
it is possible that we may be able to gain alternative suppliers
of key components, which could lead to quicker time to
market.
If our assumption that we can base our sales forecast on the

survey results proves incorrect,
it is possible that we could be vulnerable to weaker sales,
which could lead to negative cash flow and overstocking of
ready-to-ship product.
EXERCISE
7
Write down a particular strength (real or imagined) of your
team and/or project environment.
Think about an opportunity that could materialize, based on
that strength and write it down using the meta-language
structure.
Because we have <strength>,

Risk
identification
workshops
Click to edit Master title WBS
style
Documentation SWOT
review
Brainstorming
Risk
Constraints identification
and workshops
assumptions
analysis
Checklists
External
dependencies RBS
Risk category Risk sub-category
Click to edit Master 1.1
title style
Incomplete requirements
1.2 Changing requirements
1. Requirements
1.3 Inconsistent requirements
1.4 Untested requirements
Risk
2.1 Task completion delays
Breakdown 2. Schedule
2.2 External dependencies
Structure
3.1 Legacy integration
3. Technical 3.2 Scalability
3.3 Performance
4.1 Skills shortage
4. Resource
4.2 Dependance on single techie
Your questions
Click
management style
Risk Risk

48
Threats
and
Opportunities
Assess objectively
Threats
and
Opportunities
Assess objectively
Prioritise
Threats
and
Opportunities
Assess objectively
Prioritise
Threats
and Select strategy
Opportunities
Assess objectively
Prioritise
Threats
and Select strategy
Opportunities
Focus
Assess objectively
Prioritise
Threats
and Select strategy
Opportunities
Focus
Ownership
Assess objectively
Prioritise
Threats
and Select strategy
Opportunities
Focus
Ownership
What would
What is the
the likely effect
likelihood of
be on our
this risk
project
materializing?
objectives?
What is the What would the
likelihood of this likely effect be
risk on our project
materializing? objectives?
PROBABILITY IMPACT
VHI VHI
HI HI
MED MED
LO LO
VLO VLO
What is the
likelihood of this
risk
materializing?
PROBABILITY
VHI 76-95%
HI 61-75%
MED 41-60%
LO 26-40%
VLO 5-25%
What would the
likely effect be
on our project
objectives?
BUDGET TIME FUNCTIONALITY IMPACT

>40% > 3M BC not viable VHI
30-40% 1-3M BC marginal HI
20-30% 2-4W BC compromised MED
10-20% 1-2W BC needs mods LO
<10% <1W BC still viable VLO
risk on our project
PROBABILITY IMPACT
VHI VHI
HI HI
MED MED
LO LO
VLO VLO
VHI
HI
PROBABLILITY MED
A
LO
B
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
risk on our project
PROBABILITY IMPACT
VHI =5 VHI =5
HI =4 HI =4
MED =3 MED =3
LO =2 LO =2
VLO =1 VLO =1
Click to edit Master
5
VHI 105
title
15 style25
20
HI 4 4 8 12 16 20
PROBABLILITY MED 3 3 6 9 12 15
A
LO 2 2 4 6 8 10
B
VLO 1 1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
VLO LO MED HI VHI
IMPACT
EXERCISE
8
What, in your opinion, is the relative importance of the two

risk assessment criteria, PROBABILITY and IMPACT?
• PROBABILITY should carry more weight

• IMPACT should carry more weight
• They are equally important and should carry equal weight
risk on our project
PROBABILITY IMPACT
VHI – 0.90 VHI – 0.80
HI – 0.70 HI – 0.40
MED – 0.50 MED – 0.20
LO – 0.30 LO – 0.10
VLO – 0.10 VLO – 0.05
Click to0.045
edit0.09Master title0.72style
0.18 0.36
VHI 0.90
HI 0.70 0.035 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56
PROBABLILITY MED 0.50 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40
LO 0.30 0.015 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24
VLO 0.10 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08
0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80

VLO LO MED HI VHI
IMPACT
Thresholds
VHI 0.90 0.045 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72
>0.20
HIGH
HI 0.70 0.035 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56 Urgent attention
PROBABLILITY MED 0.50 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.08 – 0.20
MEDIUM
Regular review
LO 0.30 0.015 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24
>0.08
VLO 0.10 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 LOW
Monitor
0.05 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.80
VLO LO MED HI VHI
IMPACT
Thresholds
VHI 0.90 0.045 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72
>0.20
HIGH RISK
HI 0.70 0.035 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56 Urgent attention
PROBABLILITY MED 0.50 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.08 – 0.20
MEDIUM RISK
Regular review
LO 0.30 0.015 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24
<0.08
VLO 0.10 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 LOW RISK
Monitor
0.05 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.80
VLO LO MED HI VHI
IMPACT
VHI
HI
PROBABLILITY
MED
LO
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
OtherClick to edit Master
risk assessment title style
criteria
Proximity Relatedness
Manageability Detectability
Click to edit
RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
71
Click to edit
RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
72
RBS
Click to edit
category RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
73
Click to edit
RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
74
Click to edit
RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
75
Click to edit
RiskMaster
Registertitle style
P/Mgr MED 0.20
HI
Sponsor HI HI 0.28
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06
Network
AGM MED 0HI 0.20
Legal &
Compliance
Exec HI HI 0.28
Lead
designer LO HI 0.12
Software
vendor MED LO 0.05
Software
vendor HI MED 0.14
76
Your questions
Click
management style
Risk Risk

79
VHI
HI
PROBABLILITY
MED
LO
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
Click to edit MasterP title style
VHI
ESU
HI ITI
UN
RT
PROBABLILITY
O N
P W
MED OP DO
a ge ATS
a n RE
M TH
LO
a ge
a n
M
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
Click
Risk response to edit
strategy Master
selection title style
Threats
Avoid
Transfer
Reduce
Accept
VHI
Threats
HI
Avoid
PROBABLILITY
Transfer MED
Reduce
Accept LO
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
VHI
Threats
HI
Avoid
PROBABLILITY
Transfer MED
Reduce
Accept LO Accept
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
VHI
Threats
HI Avoid
Avoid
PROBABLILITY
Transfer MED
Reduce
Accept LO Accept
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
VHI
Threats
HI Avoid
Avoid
PROBABLILITY
Transfer MED
Reduce
Accept LO Accept Transfer
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
VHI
Threats
HI Reduce Avoid
Avoid
PROBABLILITY
Transfer MED
Reduce
Accept LO Accept Transfer
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
Click
Risk response to edit
strategy Master
selection title style
Threats Opportunities
Avoid Exploit
Transfer Share
Reduce Enhance
Accept Accept
VHI
Opportunities
HI Enhance Exploit
Exploit
PROBABLILITY
Share MED
Enhance
Accept LO Accept Share
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
EXERCISE
9
What is the risk that the family is facing for their drive to
Mozambique? Please articulate it using the risk meta-
language.

As a result of a family decision to go to Mozambique for
the weekend (leaving on Friday afternoon),
it is possible that the Friday afternoon traffic will cause
the trip to take longer than normal,
which could lead to the family arriving at the border after
it closes.
EXERCISE
10
Strategy Response action

Match the risk
response actions Avoid
above with the risk Transfer
response strategies Reduce
in this table.
Accept
1.
Andrew arranges accommodation close to the border and plans to cross
into Mozambique first thing on Saturday

Match the risk
in this table.
Accept
1.
2. Andrew asks the family to pack the car and pick him up at the conference
venue and drive straight to Mozambique.

Match the risk
in this table.
Accept
1.
3. Andrew decides to take the chance but accepts that he may be sleeping
in the car that night. Tells kids to pack sleeping bags

Match the risk
in this table.
Accept
1.
4. Andrew asks the class to start the workshop earlier and forgo breaks in
order to finish in time to allow an extra hour for the trip.
Match the risk
in this table.
Accept
1.
4. Andrew asks the class to start the workshop earlier and forgo breaks in
order to finish in time to allow an extra hour for the trip.
Match the risk
response actions Avoid 1
above with the risk Transfer 4
response strategies Reduce 2
in this table.
Accept 3
Your questions
Click
management style
Risk Risk

10
Probability
WHO must do WHAT by WHEN?

EXERCISE
11
Identify a risk response action to reduce the

probability of your risk materialising
Probability
Impact
EXERCISE
12
Identify an immediate risk response action to

reduce the impact of your risk materialising
Identify a contingency risk response action to

reduce the impact of your risk materialising
Probability
Impact
Probability
Your questions
Click
management style
Risk Risk

EXERCISE
13
Dana has missed the last two project risk review meetings. She
emailed you to say that she did not have time to attend them as she
was fully focused on her immediate deadline, due in a month.
How would you, as the project manager, impress on Dana why

everyone on the team needs to make time for risk-related work?
Let’s throw some ideas out on the chat…

Click
management style
Risk Risk

Original Reduced
Response Threat 1
Threat 1
Original Increased
Response
Opportunity 2 Opportunity 2
Click
Residual
to edit Master title
VHI O –style
3’
Risk HI
PROBABLILITY
MED O–3 T–1
LO T – 1’
VLO
VLO LO MED HI VHI

IMPACT
Original Reduced
Threat 1 Response Threat 1a
Secondary
Threat 1
Is Reduced Threat 1a + Secondary Threat A1 < Original Risk A?

P/Mgr MED HI 0.20 VLO MED 0.06
Sponsor HI HI 0.28 LO VHI 0.24
Marketing
exec
LO MED 0.06 LO MED 0.06
Network
MED HI 0.20 MED HI 0.20
AGM
Legal &
Compliance
HI HI 0.28 MED HI 0.20
Exec
Lead
LO HI LO MED 0.06
designer
0.12
Software
LO 0.06
vendor
MED 0.05 MED LO
Software
vendor
HI MED 0.14 MED MED 0.10
Lead
designer
HI HI 0.28 0.20
MED MED
P/Mgr HI MED 0.14 0.06

LO MED
Lead
designer
HI HI 0.28 MED HI 0.20
HI HI 0.28
HI HI 0.28
HI HI 0.28
HI HI 0.28
HI HI 0.28
Click to edit Master title
July 10, 2022 style
January 25, 2023
6 1 1 0 0
7 3 6 1 0
3 8 8 4 0
4 5 7 7 1
11 9 6 8 4
Click
management style
Risk Risk

Are you feeling ready to introduce

PULSE risk management on your project?
Risk Risk

Click to edit Initiation
Master title style

Risk Risk

RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Project title style
objectives
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Project title style
objectives
Project
metrics
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Project title style
objectives
Project
metrics
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
Project title style
objectives
Project
metrics
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
People &
roles
Project title style
objectives
Project
metrics
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
People &
Skills and roles
tools
Project title style
objectives
Project
metrics
RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
Tracking &
Reporting
People &
Skills and roles
tools
Project title style
objectives
Project
Analysis metrics
& scoring RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
Tracking &
Reporting
People &
Skills and roles
tools
Project title style
Governance objectives
Project
Analysis metrics
& scoring RISK
MANAGEMENT
take
PLAN
Processes
Tracking &
Reporting
People &
Skills and roles
tools
take
Your comments and questions

EXERCISE
14
Please review the note you made doing Exercise 1, when you set an
intention of expectation for what you wanted from today.
EXERCISE
14
Please review the note you made doing Exercise 1, when you set an
intention of expectation for what you wanted from today.
As a result of my having completed the Managing Projects Risk online training,
it is possible that I may be able to < my opportunity>,
which could lead to <positive effect/s on my personal objectives>.
What concrete actions can you take in order to exploit that opportunity?
take
Project management is getting work done

through people who do not report to you.
take
+++
ENERGY LEVEL
++
+ DECAY CURVE
0
© 2011 David Hillson/Risk Doctor Limited
Used with permission
PLAN Click to edit Master title style
IDENTIFY ANALYSE PLAN RESPONSES IMPLEMENT & REVIEW
+++
ENERGY LEVEL
++
+ DECAY CURVE
0
PLAN Click to edit Master title style
IDENTIFY ANALYSE PLAN RESPONSES IMPLEMENT & REVIEW
+++
ENERGY LEVEL
++
0
Click to editInitiation
Master title style

COMMUNICATE
Risk MOTIVATE Risk

take
14
Thank you for participating today.
Andrew McGregor
adm@cohesion.co.za
linkedin.com/in/andrewdmcgregor

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Click to edit Master title style

Project Risk Management

The Chaos Report

My expectation for this course is ...

A project is a temporary endeavor

Risk response Risk response

Please write down one risk from your current or a

Your comments and questions

Risk response Risk response

Does uncertainty risk?

Uncertainty RISK Objectives

“An uncertain event or set of

Select those that you think are project risks

1. Our project may run over budget.

“The most common error made

Cause Risk Result

Existing condition Effect/s on

Cause Risk Result

Existing condition Effect/s on

As a result of <existing condition>,

As a result of the global microchip shortage, it is possible that we might not

As a result of <existing condition>,

An uncertain future event or

An uncertain future event or

Positive risks are OPPORTUNITIES

Negative risks are THREATS

Try your hand at crafting an opportunity for your

How did you find that exercise?

Potentially favorable Potentially unfavorable

Because we have <weakness>,

Because we have to replace our Python developer,

If <positive assumption> proves false,

If our assumption that we can base our sales forecast on the

Because we have <strength>,

Risk response Risk response

BUDGET TIME FUNCTIONALITY IMPACT

VLO LO MED HI VHI

What, in your opinion, is the relative importance of the two

• PROBABILITY should carry more weight

HI 0.70 0.035 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56

PROBABLILITY MED 0.50 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40

LO 0.30 0.015 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24

VLO 0.10 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08

0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80

VLO LO MED HI VHI

Risk response Risk response

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

VLO LO MED HI VHI

As a result of <existing condition>,

Strategy Response action

Strategy Response action

Strategy Response action

Strategy Response action

Risk response Risk response

WHO must do WHAT by WHEN?

Identify a risk response action to reduce the

Identify an immediate risk response action to