NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

School of Civil Engineering

Institute of Steel Structures

Decision support, resilience and sustainable

reconstruction of historical city cores under seismic
threat: The HYPERION approach

Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
National Technical University of Athens

Paolo Bazzurro
IUSS Pavia

SEE8 8
th International Conference on Seismology & Earthquake Engineering Tehran, 12 November, 2019
Resilience under Multiple Hazards

Faber, M. H., Qin, J., Miraglia,

S., & Thöns, S. (2017). On the
Probabilistic Characterization of
Robustness and Resilience.
Procedia Engineering, 198,
1070-1083.

2
Example: City of Rhodes

3
Risk estimation

Intensity Measure fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions

Analysis…

Loss curve Loss map

4
 “Timeless” Hazard @ single site

Hazard curve
MAF = Mean Annual Frequency of IM
exceedance (Poisson assumption)
IM = Intensity Measure
ln(MAF)

✓ Aggregate a bunch of events in a site

✓ Classic approach – limited use: useful if you
are looking at one position
✓ For many sites → IM fields

ln(IM)

5
Time-changing hazard @ multiple sites: Stochastic Event Sets
SES: a possible realization of the hazard during a given investigation time span

Event generator:

Realizations For each event

per year generate an IM field

6
Seismic hazard

Rhodes Rhodes
Seismic source model
Seismic source model
Point sources
Area sources

7
Seismic hazard maps

Hazard map of Rhodes at selected probability of exceedance rate

8
Exposure model
Information on
• spatial distribution
• value
• vulnerability
of the elements exposed to
seismic hazard

Medieval city of Rhodes.

Municipality of Rhodes.

9
Vulnerability model

Damage ratio given the IM: 𝐷𝑅|𝐼𝑀 = σ𝑁𝐷𝑆

𝑖=1 [𝑃(𝑖𝑛 𝐷𝑆𝑖|𝐼𝑀) × 𝐷𝑅𝑖]

10
Exposure: Building stock
[A] : ancient part of city

[1] [1] - [2]: city center with RC buildings, mixed commercial

and residential areas

[2]
[3]: wall surrounded Medieval City (UNESCO heritage
[3] site), mixed commercial and residential area,
[A] [4] unreinforced masonry
[5]
[4] – [6]: suburban city with RC buildings, mixed
[5] commercial and residential areas, mainly after 1960
[7]: suburban city with RC buildings, mainly residential
area, mainly after 2000
[7]

11
Medieval city of Rhodes

12
Structural modeling

Francesco Clementi, Valentina

Gazzani, Marina Poiani, Pardo Antonio
Mezzapelle & Stefano Lenci (2018)
Seismic Assessment of a Monumental
Building through
Nonlinear Analyses of a 3D Solid
Model, Journal of Earthquake
Engineering, 22:sup1, 35-61.

13
Power generation, transmission & distribution network

Old powerplant

New powerplant
Wind farm

14
Telecommunication network

15
Water & Sewage networks

Sewage
treatment plant

Main water line

Dam & Reservoir

16
Transportation network

Main port

Roads into city

Kremasti bridge
Airport

17
Vulnerability assessment & Loss estimation by event

Ground Motion Field Vulnerability model

For each asset losses estimated based on the IM value and asset’s vulnerability curve

18
Pre-event operation of risk model: Urban risk assessment
VULNERABILITY

FRAGILITY
HAZARD Geo-structural
Meteo, Climatic Response to hazard
Seismic

CONSEQUENCES:
Threat for the historical
memory, repair losses,
difficulty to repair,
Impact on tourism

19
Trans-event operation of risk model: Sensor integration
VULNERABILITY

FRAGILITY
“ONE”
HAZARD Geo-structuralMODEL
“ONE”
Meteo, Climatic
EVENT Response to hazard
Seismic

CONSEQUENCES:
Hazard Structure
Sensors Sensors Threat for the historical
“SOME”
memory, repair losses,
Conseq. CONSEQ.
difficulty to repair,
Sensors
Impact on tourism

20
And we are just starting….

• Downtime assessment per asset?

• Interconnections among networks?
• Cascading failures?
• Business interruption?
• Multiple hazard effects?

We have until 2022 to figure it out ☺

21
Acknowledgements

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 821054 22