Collision risks: is the shore lagging

behind the bridge?

Dr Xavier LEFEVRE, Operational Advisor

OUTLINE

1. Basic Collision avoidance

2. Basic Colregs
3. Some Traffic studies in the 1975s
4. From the bridge [Arpa (1985), AIS (2005)]
5. From the Shore, especially inside TSS
6. Conclusions
1- Basic collision avoidance
CPA from the Bridge : Intuitive original concept in Relative Motion
Vector time : 3 min Time : 00 min
VA = 10 kts Range : 4,0 nm
VB = 17.5 kts TCPA : 12 min
VBA = 20 kts

Time : 15 min
Range : 1,1 Nm
TCPA : - 3 min

CPA : 0,5 Nm
CPA Distance AB
Nm Moving Away
4

2
A
1

Time
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Minutes
Closest Approach
 CPA from the Shore : Of course, only with True Motion
Vector time : 3 min Time : 00 min
VA = 10 kts Range : 4,0 nm
VB = 17.5 kts TCPA : 12 min
VBA = 20 kts
CPA(B)

Time : 15 min CPA(A)

Range : 1,1 Nm
TCPA : - 3 min

CPA : 0,5 Nm
Distance AB
Nm Moving Away
4

2
A
1

Time
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Minutes
Closest Approach
 CPA from the Bridge and from the Shore

Vector time : 3 min

VA = 10 kts
VB = 17.5 kts
VBA = 20 kts CPA(B) TRUE MOTION
B

Time : 00 min CPA(A)

Range : 4,0 nm
TCPA : 12 min

CPA : 0,50 Nm
CPA Distance AB
Nm Approaching
4

2
A
1

Time
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Minutes
Closest Approach
 CPA from the Bridge and from the Shore

CPA(B) TRUE MOTION

B

Time : 12 min CPA(A)

Range : 0,5 nm
TCPA : 00 min

CPA : 0,50 Nm
CPA Distance AB
Nm Approaching
4

2
A
1

Time
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Minutes
Closest Approach
 CPA from the Bridge and from the Shore
Vector time : 3 min Time : 00 min
VA = 10 kts Range : 4,0 nm
VB = 17.5 kts TCPA : 12 min
VBA = 20 kts
CPA(B) TRUE MOTION
B

Time : 15 min CPA(A)

Range : 1,1 Nm
TCPA : - 3 min

CPA : 0,50
Nm
CPA Distance AB
Nm Moving Away
4

2
A
1

Time
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Minutes
Closest Approach
 Collision Avoidance Maneuvre

Vector time : 3 min

Course B : 270°
Speed B : 17.5 kts

Time : 00 min
Range : 4,0 nm
TCPA : 12 min
DCPA : 0,5 Nm CPA

Safe DCPA : 1 Nm Course A : 000°

Safe TCPA : 9 min Speed A : 10 kts
A
 Collision Avoidance Maneuvre

Vector time : 3 min

Course B : 270°
Speed B : 17.5 kts

Time : 03 min
Range : 3,0 nm
TCPA : 07 min
DCPA : 1,0 Nm

Safe DCPA : 1 Nm Course A : 032°

Safe TCPA : 9 min Speed A : 10 kts
A
 Collision Avoidance Maneuvre

Vector time : 3 min

Course B : 270°
Speed B : 17.5 kts

Time : 10 min
Range : 1,0 nm
TCPA : 0 min
DCPA : 1,0 Nm

Safe DCPA : 1 Nm Course A : 032°

Safe TCPA : 9 min Speed A : 10 kts
A
 Collision Avoidance Maneuvre

Vector time : 3 min

Course B : 270°
Speed B : 17.5 kts

Time : 12 min
Range : 1,0 nm
TCPA : -2 min
DCPA : 1,0 Nm

Safe DCPA : 1 Nm Course A : 000°

Safe TCPA : 9 min Speed A : 10 kts
A
 Collision Avoidance Maneuvre

Vector time : 3 min

Course B : 270°
Speed B : 17.5 kts

Time : 15 min
Range : 4,0 nm
TCPA : -5 min
DCPA : 1,0 Nm

Safe DCPA : 1 Nm Course A : 000°

Safe TCPA : 9 min Speed A : 10 kts
A
2- Basic Colregs : Types of encounters

Head on

Crossing

Overtaking
14
2- Basic Colregs: Head on encounters
Ship B Ship B

Ship A & Ship B

are Give way vessels

Ship A Ship A

15
2- Basic Colregs: Crossing encounters

+
Ship B
Stand on vessel
maintains course and speed

+
Ship A
+

Give way vessel

should pass astern of Ship B

16
2- Basic Colregs: Crossing encounters

Ship B will pass

+
ahead of Ship A

+
Ship B and Ship A

+
are on Collision course

Ship B will pass

+
astern of Ship A

Ship A

17
2- Basic Colregs: Overtaking encounters
Ship B Ship B
Stand on vessel
Maintains course and speed
+ + +
+

+ +

Ship A
Ship A Ship A
Give way vessel Give way vessel
will pass portside of Ship B will pass starboard of Ship B

18
3- Some Traffic studies in the 1975’s – Degré & Lefèvre

A- Getting safe tresholds not only for a simple guard circle but also for an
asymmetric Own ship’s domain (E.Goodwin, Y.Fujii – Liverpool 1978) with
different safety thresholds related to the encounter category:
• Head on
Heading
• Crossing
• Ahead
• Astern
• Overtaking

Own ship’s guard circle

Own ship’s domain

B- Run Monte Carlo simulations to check different TSS project in the Channel and
Dover Strait and specify French Coastal VTS
Getting safe tresholds from radar image analysis

200 collision avoidance maneuvres have been analysed,

100 from Jobourg, 100 from Gris Nez
Ships A & B are on Crossing Encounter : DCPA = 0,3 NM ; TCA = 9 minutes

TIME
B

Jobourg
Alderney
Cherbourg
Ship A alters course ( 35° to the right) ; current distance AB = 3,2 NM

TIME
Jobourg
Alderney
Cherbourg
Ship A resumes Initial Course ; manœuvre duration : 4 minutes ; effective CPA : 1,2 NM ahead

TIME
Jobourg
Alderney
Cherbourg
Simulation of the Traffic in the Channel (1980s)
A- Prediction of category of encounter due to a routeing project

B- Operational specification of the French Coastal VTS in the Channel

C- Evaluation of the Operators’workload

Daily simulated vessel tracks
Distribution of daily predicted encounters
Mosaic of radar tracks in the Channel (Summer 2000)
4- From the bridge

ARPA (1985) and AIS (2005) give additional

and complementary facilities to the Bridge
Officer for Collision Avoidance tasks.

The Bridge Officer can identify by himself the type of encounter and adopt
appropriate safe thresholds for DCPA, TCPA and/or Critical distance according
to:
• Weather Conditions;
• Size of the fairway;
• Own ship’s manoeuvrability;
• Passage ahead or astern;
• Human factors (Captain’s age?), etc.
By the way he can also select the most efficient combinations of:
• True or relative motions;
• True or relative vectors;
• North up, Course up , Head Up presentations.
5- From the Shore, especially inside TSS

Operational Feed back from more than 120 training sessions of Coastal VTSO, including Major Straits
 5- From the Shore, especially inside TSS
I will not speak about some aids to operator’s decision
such as :
• Positions at Closest approach (Simple or multiple);
• Predicted area of danger,
• Attention zones,
• Dangerous sectors,
displayed on the Traffic Image, but I will comment about
automatic warnings to Operators such as:
• Anchor watch,
• Collision risk,
• Non compliant route and speed,
and others.

The experience acquired in more than 120 sessions of

VTSO training allows me to conclude that they do not
really use operational warnings except for anchor
Own ship’s guard circle
watch .

In fact, most of the VTS equipment still use the simple (DCPA, TCPA) criteria without taking
into account the type of encounter and associated thresholds, in order to trigger some
collision risk warnings to VTSO. Consequently VTSO are saturated by non pertinent if not
false warnings.
 x=2
Collision diagrams

x = 1.5 32 kts

24 kts

x=1
16 kts

x = 0.5 8 kts

0 kts

1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm

16 kts

Vector Time : 6 minutes

For the same Time to collision, for a given difference of Headings D,

we get critical ranges R and bearings G corresponding to the different speed ratio x
 Colregs

Give way Stand on

Ships B 2 1.5 1 0.5 Ships B

Ships B
Overtaken
Locus of Ships B overtaken by Ship A

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 x

112°5 112°5

135°
Effects of the basic Colregs on the area of Ownship’s reinforced vigilance

1,5 1 0,5

for the Give Way Vessel

x = 1.5 for instance: VA = 16 kts, VB = 24 kts

Effects of the basic Colregs on the area of Ownship’s reinforced vigilance

Head On

Transitions H / C

1,5 1 0,5 Crossing

A Transitions C / O

Overtaken
for the Give Way Vessel

x = 1.5 for instance: VA = 16 kts, VB = 24 kts

Effects of Traffic Separation Schemes on Encounter types distribution

mainly

1,5 1 0,5 Crossing

&

Overtaken
A

for the Give Way Vessel

x = 1.5 for instance: VA = 16 kts, VB = 24 kts

Effects of Traffic Separation Schemes on Encounter types distribution

x = 1.5 for instance: VA = 16 kts, VB = 24 kts

 Distance between Ship B and Ship A for a 6 minutes TCPA (VA =16 Kts)

Nautical
miles Overtaken Crossing Head On
x = 1.5
x = 1.4
x = 1.3
x = 1.2
x = 1.06
x = 1.0
x = 0.94

x = 0.8
x = 0.7
x = 0.6
x = 0.5
x = 0.4
x = 0.3
x = 0.2
x = 0.1
1.6
x = 0.0

1.0

67°5 112°5 170° D

 Ranges for a 6 min. TCPA
( Nautical miles)

1,5 1 0,5

A
TCPA when Ship B is at 3 Nautical miles from Ship A
 Minutes TCPA when Ship B is at 3 Nautical miles from Ship A (VA =16 Kts)
x=1
x = 17/16 = 1,06
x = 16/15 = 0,94

Overtaken Crossing Head On

45 x = 0.75
min.
x = 0.67

x = 1.33
x = 0.5
15 x = 1.5 5 minutes ≤ TCPA < 15minutes
min. x = 0.25
x=0
67°5 112°5 170°
D
 TCPA for a 3 NM Range
(Minutes)

1,5 1 0,5

A
Conclusions
Due to the large dispersion of TCPA values corresponding to the different types of
encounters, the simple criteria (DCPA, TCPA) cannot trigger pertinent and reliable
warnings for collision risks from the shore.
TCPA (minutes)
180 min.

Own ship’s guard circle

This conclusion is valid especially for detecting dangerous overtakings which are
nowadays the most frequent encounters inside TSS and may produce harsh collisions.
Dangerous Overtaking Encounter
Ship B overtakes Ship A if:
• Her speed is greater (x>1),
• Ship B’s bearing is greater than 112°5 and smaller than 247°5,
• Headings difference is lower than 67°5,

Overtaking is dangerous if:

• DCPA is smaller than threshold Rc
• TCA is positive
• Range AB is lower than threshold Dc
Thank you for your attention!

Dr Xavier LEFEVRE
Operational Advisor
STYRIS Instructor