Concept note

On

Land use and land cover dynamics and its driving factors
in Hashenge Watershed, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Prepared by; Brhane Weldegebrial

September; 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE; INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................1
1.1. Background of the study...................................................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the Problem...................................................................................................................3
1.3 General objective of the study………………………………………………………………………………………………………4

1.4 Research Questions............................................................................................................................5

1.5 Significance of the Research..............................................................................................................5
1.6 Research content and scope...............................................................................................................5
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW LITERATURE..............................................................................................6
2.1 Land Resource Degradation and Sustainable Land Management......................................................6
2.2. Land Resource Degradation in the Highlands...................................................................................7
2.2.1 Soil Erosion................................................................................................................................7
2.2.2 Biodiversity Loss and Declining of Vegetation Cover................................................................7
2.3 Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC).........................................................................................................8
2.3.1 Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Detection...................................................................................9
2.4. Conservation intervention in Ethiopia............................................................................................10
2.5 Driving Factors for LULC Change..................................................................................................10
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.............................................................................13
3.1 Description of the Study Area..........................................................................................................13
3.1.1 Location of the study area.........................................................................................................13
3.2 Population........................................................................................................................................14
3.3 Climate............................................................................................................................................14
3.4 Data Collection................................................................................................................................14
3.4.1 Field Survey and General Observation.....................................................................................14
3.4.2 Secondary Data.........................................................................................................................15
3.4.2 Sampling methods and sampling techniques.............................................................................15
3.5 Data analysis....................................................................................................................................15
Reference...............................................................................................................................................17

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 CHAPTER ONE; INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the study

Land use and land cover are closely interrelated but are not the same. The term “Land use’’
denotes the human utilization of the land. While “Land cover” denotes the physical state of the
land. Land use /land cover change may be result of natural processes or human activities.
Furthermore, technological advances and expanding population have put increasing pressure on
scarce resources and have created a variety of complex land use dilemmas that affect persons at
all levels of society. Land use/ land cover change has become a central component in current
strategies for managing natural resources. The advancement in the concept of vegetation
mapping has greatly increased research on land use/ land cover change (Zubair, 2006). It is also
important to notice that LULC change is one of the challenges which strongly influence the
process of Agricultural development and the food security situation in Ethiopia (Daniel Ayalew,
2008). Being a land of great geographic diversity, Ethiopia is characterized by sharp and
repeated environmental contrasts. There are areas where population pressure, in conjunction with
a growing rural populations and rising subsistence demand have contributed to the deterioration
and depletion of natural resource base. In the highlands of Ethiopia, the impact of human activity
on the environment is so striking owing to intensive cultivation; land fragmentation, economic
and political forces that relate to peasant agriculture. More than ever, the need for rational
planning of land use/cover development and optimal use of the land resources is evident. That is
why precise and credible data on land use /cover change and their trends are necessary for
understanding local environmental problems (Daniel Ayalew, 2008).

Ethiopia’s land resources are critical to the economic and social development of the country.The
sector is the main driver of economic growth, accounting for about 50% of GDP, 90% of export
revenues and 80% of employment. Most rural households directly depend on their local land
resources for their livelihoods. Annual crop production is the most important, contributing to
about 61% of household income. Small-scale low-input rain fed, primarily subsistence,
agriculture is the dominant form of production (Tesfaye, 2009). However, current levels of land
degradation have significant economic costs for the country particularly in the highlands. This
has been estimated at an annual cost of between 2-3% of Agricultural GDP. This is a

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conservative estimate as it doesn’t take into account the off-site effects of land degradation. But,
the detailed economic assessment of land degradation in the Ethiopian Highlands suggested a
much higher figure, estimating that in 1990 the economic costs of land degradation were
equivalent to 8% of agricultural GDP, and that continuing soil erosion and leaching of nutrients
was contributing to an on-going annual decline of agricultural GDP of between 0.46 and 0.6%
per annum. Regardless of its diversified land resources, Ethiopia has been subjected to severe
land degradations (Tesfaye, 2009). In line with this, (Mastewal., 2006) states that Ethiopia is one
of the most environmentally. Degraded countries in the Sahel belt. Land degradation attracted
increasing awareness during the 1980s. A paradigm shift took place from projects dealing mainly
with physical and chemical aspects of degradation towards integration of a broader range of
disciplines. The pre-1980 period was largely dominated by a "technical-fix approach", where a
physical problem was identified and a physical solution prescribed (Stocking, 1992). There are
several interrelated factors that contribute adversely for degradation of lands in Africa in general
and Ethiopia in particular. For instance, (Mekuria, 2005) states that “Land degradation in
developing countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), is largely an outcome of the existing
agricultural production system, which is a “resource-poor” agriculture characterized by uncertain
Rainfall, low inherent land productivity, lack of capital, inadequate support services and
poverty”. Many studies carried out in Ethiopia to address natural resource degradation and
development needs; emphasizes mostly in the conservation based strategy. Since the 1960s,
different approaches were implemented to enhance the productive capacity and rehabilitation of
the degraded lands through natural resource management practices: such as soil and water
conservation, integrated natural resource management, sustainable land resource management at
landscape, basin,watershed and administrative levels (Luara and Jermias, 2012). A serious of
interventions which are not coordinated, integrated and low level of grass root participation in all
aspects of NRM practices especially; in the planning, appropriate technology selection and
control of the natural resource in their locality seriously affects the effectiveness of the
interventions (Tesfaye, 2009). Therefore, attempt will be made in this study to map out the status
of land use land cover of Hashenge watershed 1990 and 2020 with a view to detect the land
consumption rate and the changes that will be taken place using remote sensing and GIS and
establish the main drivers of land use/land cover change through household questionnaire and a
focus group discussion.

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1.2 Statement of the Problem
The Ethiopian Highlands, once endowed with rich natural resources, are agriculturally used since
millennium and now heavily degraded. This environmental degradation replicated in the form of
land degradation and degradation of water resources as well as loss of biodiversity. With regard
to this, Pender and Birhanu (2007) state that “Low agricultural productivity, poverty and land
degradation are critical and closely related problems in the Ethiopian highlands. These problems
are particularly severe in the highlands “Several reports prevailed Ethiopian forest coverage
approximately 40% of the study carried out in the Chemoga watershed,in northwestern highland
Ethiopia, states the following:[Between 1960 and 1999, total annual stream flow decreased at a
rate of 1Ð7 mm year_1, whereas the annual rainfall decreased only at a rate of 0Ð29 mm year_1.
These observed adverse changes in the stream flow have partly resulted from changes in land
cover/use and/or degradation of the watershed that involved destruction of natural vegetative
covers, expansion of croplands, overgrazing and increased area under eucalypt plantations. The
other contributory factor has been the increased dry-season water abstraction to be expected from
the increased human and livestock populations in the area.” (Weldeamlak and Grete, 2005).
Many studies carried out in Ethiopia to address natural resource degradation and development
needs; emphasizes mostly in the conservation based strategy . A serious of interventions which
are not coordinated, integrated and low level of grass root participation in all aspects of NRM
practices especially; in the planning, appropriate technology selection and control of the natural
resource in their locality seriously affects the effectiveness of the interventions (Tesfaye, 2009)
total land area century ago but now have shrunken to only 3% (Berry, 2003). The current
watershed management approach still mainly focuses on soil and water conservation, and the
integration and coordination of efforts and stakeholders are minimum and also the multi-
disciplinary approach and the focus on the natural resource conservation is greater (Adugna,
2O14).

In the other hand the different intervention implemented are not well address the issue of
sustainability and their effect in the LU/LC dynamics of the highland of Ethiopia is insignificant
due a different factors played socio-political, ecological and environmental: drought, population
pressure, civil war, land tuner, disease, settlement and resettlement (Robin et al, 2000). Most
researcher including Weldeamlake (2003), Amanueal and Mulugeta(2014), Weldeamlak and

3
Sterk(2005), use LULC change detection and NDVI method to analyze the rate of land use
change and level of rehabilitation or degradation of land resources, but Tessfaye (2011) analysis
the impact of IWS management approach through HHS, key informant interview, FGD and soil
analysis to assess the rehabilitation and livelihood improvement. Efrem (2009) use both LULC
dynamics and livelihood analysis.

There is still a research gaps in the analysis and assessments of the impact of different land
resource management interventions on the rehabilitation of degraded land at watershed level
specifically in the Hashenge watershed in the North Ethiopia. For current study different
combined methods will be used for instance: LULC change detection, biomass change response
(NDVI), slope DEM analysis, interview, and document analysis will be used to assess and
investigate the linkage in the land use/cover change, driving factors and drawbacks and
challenges of past interventions. The deficit on the soil nutrient include not only NPK but also
the micro nutrients which are very important for the productivity of crop land. Furthermore,
estimates of soil nutrient loss in Ethiopia show a net removal of 41 kg of nitrogen/ha of
agricultural land between 1982 and 1984, and losses projected to reach 47 kg/ha by the year
2000 (FOA, 1989) argued that soil fertility depletion may be a larger problem than erosion in the
Ethiopian highlands.
1.3 General and Specific Objectives

The general objective of this study is to assess the effect of past conservation interventions in the
land resource rehabilitation of the Hashenge watershed based on LULC change analysis over a
period of 40 year. Based on the above-stated general objectives, the following four specific
objectives are formulated in this study:

To identify and map the extent of LULC change over a period of 4 decades.
(1990-2020)
To assess land rehabilitation and/or degradation.
To identify the major driving factors of LULC change.
To determine the nature, rate and location of land use /land cover change.

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1.4 Research Questions
This study is designed on the bases of the following guiding questions.

1. What are the major land use/cover changes of the study area?

2. What is the condition of land rehabilitation and/or degradation?

3. What are the major driving factors for the change in LULC?

4. How was the LRM interventions carried out in the watershed? And what were their
achievements, drawbacks and challenges

1.5 Significance of the Research

This study will give feed backs to concerned development actors in the region as well as the
project coordinators at the national level to evaluate past natural resource management works. In
addition, it will be used as a base line for the current approach of sustainable land management at
watershed level that is implemented since 2013 in the critical watershed. Moreover, it will be
important to identify further intervention areas in the down streams of the larger Hashenge
Watershed. It also helps policy makers and stakeholders in the area of land resource management
to draw lessons to sustainable land resource management. Hence, Studies of land use/ land cover
dynamics will be used for land use planner, natural resource managers and policy makers to
provide a management and decision process.

1.6 Research content and scope

This research targets mainly in the spatial and temporal variation in the land cover, identifying
the underlying factors for the change and the NRM interventions in the watershed. Moreover,
this research targets to find out the extent of land resource degradation and rehabilitation impacts
to put a baseline for further study in the area. To identify Land use and land cover (LULC)
dynamics and its driving factors in Hashenge Watershed, North Western Ethiopia. This research
is structured in five chapters. The introduction part, which includes background information,
problem statements and research objective, A literature review and description of the study area
including general methodology, analysis part, and conclusion and recommendations.

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 CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW LITERATURE

2.1 Land Resource Degradation and Sustainable Land Management

The concept of land in a broader sense refers to the climate, water resources, landforms, soils,
and vegetation (FOA, 1989).Land resources comprised of the earth’s surface, including all
elements of the physical and biological environment that influence land use. Land is not only an
environmental, social and economic asset and it is a key resource for realization of development.
Land degradation is a complex process influenced by natural, cultural and socioeconomic
factors. It is generally refers to the loss of the lands biological and economic productivity. This is
the deterioration or total loss of the productive capacity of the land for present and future
generation (FOA, 1989). Weldeamlak and Mahmud noted that land degradation is not only soil
degradation but it is broader than this it includes a long term reduction of natural vegetation
cover, Salinization and acidification, pollution of the water and the soil resources (Weldeamlak,
2003). Land resources management is the actual practice of the use(s) of the land by the local
human population, which should be sustainable (FAO, 2000). In a broader sense it includes land-
use planning, as agreed between stakeholders; legal, administrative and institutional execution;
demarcation on the ground; inspection and control of adherence to the decisions; solving of land
tenure issues; settling of water rights; issuing of concessions for plant and animal extraction
(timber, fuel wood, charcoal and peat, non-wood products, hunting); promotion of the role of
women and [other] disadvantaged groups in agriculture and rural development in the area; and
the safeguarding of traditional rights of indigenous peoples(FAO, 2000). In the land management
point of view, the major concerns are

decline in quality of soils as rooting environments;

erosion and loss of topsoil by wind and water;
loss of vegetation cover, including woody perennials;
acidification, soil fertility decline and plant nutrient depletion;
salinity and salinization, particularly in irrigated systems

Sustainable land management refers to the use of land resource for agriculture and other
purposes to meet individual and community needs while simultaneously maintaining the long
term productive potentials of the resource and the maintenance of environmental service through

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systematic use of indigenous and scientific knowledge and technologies (World Bank, 2001).
(Gete and Hans, 2001) elaborated these concepts as, sustainable land resource management is
more than the use of soil and water conservation (SWC) practices it involves the use of practices
for soil fertility improvements and soil erosion minimization, water management, forestry and
agro-forestry through an integration manner to satisfy the present generation resource needs and
maintain the land resource to support the future generation (Gete and Hans, 2001).

2.2. Land Resource Degradation in the Highlands

Land degradation in the highlands (i.e. areas above 1500 masl.) is a major development
challenge of the region. Many research and development interventions are carried out since the
1970’s due to the effects of drought and famine. Soil erosion, nutrient depletion and
deforestation are common forms of land degradation and major threats for the country and the
region (Aklilu et al., 2006). Land degradation, desertification, biodiversity loss, habitat
destruction and species transfer are consequences of LULC change (Wubie et al., 2016).

2.2.1 Soil Erosion

The region soil loss rate is one of the highest in the country according to the CEDEP, 1999 report
> 2000 t/ha per year soil loss bay water is occurs in only 10% of the region and this is around
50% of the total soil mass eroded in the country as a whole (FAO, 2000). There is a different
result on the rate of soil erosion in the region for example The Ethiopian Highland Reclamation
Study (EHRS) estimates the national soil loss rate moderate to high which is 30 to 100 t/ha per
year, (FAO, 2000) estimates in the steep slope areas exceeding 200 t/ha per year in the region,
and depending on the land use practices in the area the soil loss rate and slope gradient.

2.2.2 Biodiversity Loss and Declining of Vegetation Cover

Excess removal of forests is contributing to land degradation.For example, based on population
growth (demand) and forest increment (supply), the region recorded a deficit of about 16.6
million cubic meters of wood for fuel and construction in 1996 alone (Lambin et al, 2003).
About 20 thousand hectares of forest are harvested annually in the Amhara Region for fuel
wood, logging and construction purposes. Since harvested trees are not replaced adequately by
tree planting, soils are exposed to high intensity of rainfall and about 1.9 to 3.5 billion tones of
fertile topsoil are washed away annually into rivers and lakes due to deforestation alone (Lambin

7
et al, 2003).While there is growing interest by farmers in planting eucalyptus trees and the areal
coverage increased rapidly due to the economic values of the specious.

As vegetation cover and quality of soil resources deteriorate, the quantity and quality of water
resources also deteriorates. Many perennial springs and streams had become seasonal. The
negative impact of sedimentation on irrigation projects in the absence of catchment treatment is
evident at the Borkena and Angereb water resources development projects in South Wollo and
North Gondar zones, respectively. And a worsening scenario is envisaged as increasing amounts
of forest, bush, grazing land and marshy areas are brought under intensive cultivation to meet the
increase in food demand due to increasing population pressure. Deforestation rate of the country
declined to 6% between 1995 and 2005 and the non-forest use declined. The reason for this is the
inaccessibility of the remaining forest resources, making their extraction difficult. In the same
period the net change shows a total increase of 8%. The overall forest area declined by 3% in this
period but the report of (FAO, 2000) estimates the forest cover of the country reaches around
15%.

2.3 Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC)

Land use is defined as human modification of a natural environment or wilderness into a new
environment such as agricultural fields, pasture and settlement, while land cover is the physical
cover of the earth surface that can be grass, water, forest, bare ground, crop field and others
(FAO 2000). Land use is defined by the purposes for which humans exploit the land cover.
There is high variability in time and space in biophysical environments, socioeconomic
activities, and cultural contexts that are associated with land-use change (Lambin et al, 2003).
Land cover refers to the physical characteristics of earth’s surface, captured in the distribution of
vegetation, water, soil and other physical features of the land, including those created solely by
human activities e.g., settlements whereas land-use refers to the way in which land has been used
by humans and their habitat, usually with accent on the functional role of land for economic
activities (Rawat and Kumar, 2015).

Lambine, (2003) classify the land use land cover change perspective into:- Agent-Based
Perspective: the agent-based perspective is centered on the general nature and rules of land use
decision making by individuals. It represents the motivations behind decisions and the external
factors that influence decisions about land use. Systems Perspective: the systems/structures

8
perspective explains land-use change through the organization and institutions of society.
Institutions, such as governments, communities, or markets, operate interactively at different
spatial and temporal scales; the institutions link local conditions to global processes and vice
versa. The systems perspective highlights, for example, how communities are trapped in a
degradation pathway given complex mechanisms that may have their roots outside the area
subjected to degradation. Narrative Perspective: the narrative perspective seeks depth of
understanding through historical detail and interpretation. It tells a land-use/cover change story
for a specific locality. Historical analyses of landscape grasp all the complexity of events, in
particular stochastic or nonrandom but unpredictable events that significantly affect
land-use/land-cover changes. It includes changing political economies, environmental feedback
on land use, and external shocks. The narrative perspective recognizes the path dependence of
recent evolutions. It avoids the simplifications and erroneous interpretations that could result
from studies focused only on the present and immediate past, outside the context of longer
histories of human environment interactions (Lambine et.al, 2003)

2.3.1 Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Detection

Change detection is the process of identifying differences in the state of an object or
phenomenon by observing and quantifying it at different times and LULC change detection is
important for monitoring change of earth’s surface features to understand the relationships and
interactions between human and environment to a better management and use of natural
resources (Singh, 1989).There are four aspects of change detection which are important when
monitoring natural resources: i. Detecting the changes that have occurred ii. Identifying the
nature of the change iii. Measuring the area extent of the change iv. Assessing the spatial
pattern of the change. Change analysis and detection of features of Earth’s surface is essential for
better understanding of natural phenomena that happened on the Earth (Butt, 2015). According
to (Hurni et al., 2010) classification of the driving factors for LULC change, LULC change
occurs due to human and natural drivers.Human-induced changes are associated with socio-
economic activities such as agriculture, mining, forestry, forest extraction, wars, settlement and
policies. The natural drivers include weather and climatic fluctuations, ecosystem and geological
dynamics, and others (Hurni, 2010).

9
2.4. Conservation intervention in Ethiopia
Soil and water conservation practices are long established tradition in Ethiopia: specifically
before 400 years in Konso area (Badege, 2001), According to Shiferaw and, after the realization
of the government the problem of land degradation, forest and wildlife conservation and
development policy was declared in 1980. Following this policy, the government initiated
various studies and capacity-building programs and massive SWC interventions (Badege, 2001),
stated in his study after 1989 soil and water conservation practices have mainly been undertaken
in a form of campaign and quite often farmers have not been involved in the planning process.
Between 1976 and 1990, 71,000 ha of soil and stone bunds 233,000 ha of hillside terraces for
afforestation, 12,000 km of check dams in gullied lands, 390,000 ha of closed areas for natural
regeneration 448,000 ha of land planted with different tree species, and 526,425 ha of bench
terrace interventions were completed mainly through food-for-work (FFW) program incentives
(USAID,2000).

These impressive mass mobilization and construction of conservation structures afforestation

and reforestation program (Badege, 2001), FFW/CFW program (USAID, 2000), had many
drawbacks. Some of these are: little involvement or grass root participation of the farmers or the
beneficiaries through all phases of the program (Tesfaye, 2009), lack integration and
coordination at all levels and little effort to address the problem in a multi-disciplinary approach
(Adugna, 2014; Tesfaye, 2009). Emphasis was given for soil and water conservation, lack
incorporation of overall livelihood improvements and rural development programs, little
attention for indigenous knowledge and practices (Aklilu and Graffe, 2007), integrating with
local economic and environmental conditions (Weldeamlack, 2003), little investment to research
and training and it lacks also huge amount of resource required to reverse land resource
degradation in the country particularly the highlands which are highly affected by the problem.
Both human-induced and natural land cover changes can influence the global change because of
its interaction with terrestrial ecosystems (Haque and Basak, 2017).

2.5 Driving Factors for LULC Change

According to (Hurniet al., 2010) classification of the driving factors for LULC change, LULC
change occurs due to human and natural drivers. Human-induced changes are associated with
socio-economic activities such as agriculture, mining, forestry, forest extraction, wars, settlement

10
and policies. The natural drivers include weather and climatic fluctuations, ecosystem and
geological dynamics, and others (Hurni et al., 2010). But (Lambin et al., 2003) categorized into
six classes which are natural variability, economic and technological factors, demographic,
institutional, and cultural and globalization. The natural drivers include weather and climatic
fluctuations, ecosystem and geological dynamics, and others .In this regard, remote sensing data
have been one of the most important data sources for studies of land cover spatial and temporal
changes

Multi temporal remote sensing data sets allow to map and identify landscape changes, giving an
effective effort to sustainable landscape planning and management. By means of integration of
remote sensing and GIS techniques, it is possible to analyses and to classify the changing pattern
of land cover during a long time period and as a result to understand the changes within the area
of interest (Fichera et al., 2012).Most researcher including Weldeamlake (2003), Amanueal and
Mulugeta (2014), Weldeamlak and Gret (2005), use LULC change detection and NDVI method
to analyze the rate of land use change and level of rehabilitation or degradation of land resources,
but Tessfaye (2009) analysis the impact of IWS management approach through HHS, key
informant interview, FGD and soil analysis to assess the rehabilitation and livelihood
improvement. (Efrem, 2009) use both LULC dynamics and livelihood analysis.

A combined use of different methods LULC change detection, biomass change response
(NDVI), slope DEM analysis, key informant interview, and document analysis will be used to
assess and investigate the linkage in the land use/cover change, driving factors and drawbacks
and challenges of past interventions. A vegetation index is a common spectral index that
identifies the presence of chlorophyll. It is composed of reflectance in the red spectral region
(0.62 to 0.7µm) and a portion of the near infrared spectral region (0.7 to 1.1µm). Chlorophyll has
a relative low reflectance in the red part of the electromagnetic spectrum and a relative high
reflectance in the near infrared part. Vegetation indices are empirical formulae designed to
emphasize the spectral contrast between the red and near infrared regions of the electromagnetic
spectrum. They attempt to measure biomass and vegetative health, the higher the vegetation
index value, the higher the probability that the corresponding area on the ground has a dense
coverage of healthy green. Spectral vegetation indices permit clear discrimination between bare
soil surfaces, water bodies, and vegetation. NDVI = Near infrared - Visible red/Visible red +

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Near infrared. In general, change detection involves the application of multi-temporal data sets
(mostly remotely sensed data) to quantitatively analyze the temporal effects of the phenomenon
and have two forms. The first one is bi-temporal change detection is a direct comparison, post-
analysis comparison and uniform modeling and it measures changes based on a simple ‘two-
epoch’ time scale comparison (Oettera et al., 2000). And the second one is temporal trajectory
analysis is a time series analysis and the changes based on a ‘continuous’ timescale, focusing
both changes between dates and the progress of the change over the period. Land cover accuracy
is commonly defined as the degree to which the derived classification agrees with reality and the
accuracy of the map in a larger part determines the usefulness of the map (Ashenafi, 2008)
Accuracy assessment is critical for a map generated from any remote sensing data.The accuracy
assessment will be done by comparing the classified image with the land cover classes on the
topographic maps and the ground control points on the field.using the formula of Rate of land
cover changes (ha/year)= (A-B)/C.

Where A-Recent land cover area size B- Previous land covers area size

C-Number of years between A and B

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 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Description of the Study Area

3.1.1 Location of the study area

The study was conducted in Hashenge watershed, Ofla Ofla District, south Tigray zone, Tigray
Region of Ethiopia. Geographically it is situated between 12º22'3"N to 12º42'30" N and 39
2
º10'32"E to 39º34'40"E covering a total area of about 1086 km (figure 1).The altitude of the
study area ranges from 1587 to 3682 m above sea level and covers slope range from flat (0º) to
very steep (71º).

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3.2 Population
Based on the 2007 Census conducted by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA),Ofla
wereda has a total population of 126,889, of whom 62,278 (49%) were male and 64,611 ( 51%)
female with a density of 116.8 peoples per square kilo meter. But the total population of the
wereda in 2012 increased to 144,027 of which 70,689 (49%) were male and 73,338(51%) were
female (http://www.csa.gov.et/index.php/2013-02-20-13-43-35/national-statistics-abstract/141-

population)

3.3 Climate

The climatic variables of the study area are highly governed by topography of the area (mainly
altitude). Mean annual temperature of the study area ranges from 5°C to 26°C(Fig.3.3 and 3.4).
The area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern with a short rainy season “Belg” from
March to May and a long rainy season “Kiremt” from June to September with a peak in August.
During the long rainy season (Kiremt), mean monthly rainfall ranges from 40–240 mm and
between 40-60mm during short rainy season (Belg) as it is clearly indicated in figure 3.2. The
rainfall pattern in the area is relatively erratic and unpredictable (Misgina Gebrehiwot, 2012).

3.4 Data Collection

3.4.1 Field Survey and General Observation

A preliminary field survey will be conducted to get a general view on the physical condition of
the area such as the major vegetation cover types; Land use and land cover types, landscape
pattern and topography. During this stage of the process, investigations will be carried out into
past and present land cover type condition and management practices. Information will be
gathered by using different methods, such as taking Ground control points using GPS-receiver,
interviewing elders, experts, and District and religious leaders, taking digital photographs, and
observations. The preliminary information will be help to understand the existing situation of the
watershed, the major vegetation, and land cover types. Field survey will be help to understand
the natural sitting of the study area as well as to understand the perception of the local people
relevant to this study.

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3.4.2 Secondary Data
Satellite images, Topo map, reports, manuals, evaluation documents and other resources in this
study will be used as secondary data sources. Checklists will be used as tools to prepare
secondary data for this purpose.

3.4.2 Sampling methods and sampling techniques

According to Ofla district (2014), Ofla District has a total population of 244928 that consists of
124653 male and 120275 female respectively (CSA, 2007). This District consists 3 rural kebeles
(the first smallest administrative structure of the country) in which their economy is dependent
on mixed farming where crop husbandry is the most important component of the livelihood of
the farmers.

In order to substantiate the information obtained from the aerial photo and satellite image, the
socio-economic survey will be conducted with a total of 129 households’ i.e. 43 households from
The total household of the study area is 1289 which consists sample size of 129 households.

3.5 Data analysis

Data analysis will be carried out by using freely available time series Landsat satellite images
downloaded from USGS official website (earthexplorer.usgs.gov) land sat Multi Spectral
Scanner (MSS), Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper
(ETM). Image processing and GIS data analysis will be carried out using remote sensing and
GIS software including ERDAS Imagine 13.1 and ArcGIS 10.2 respectively. Moreover, GIS data
integration and statistical analysis will be used. There are other soft wares like Origin 9.0, SPSS,
ENVI 4.7, and Excel statistics which can be used as an option. Quantitative data analysis method
will be used in socio economic data evaluation because it provides quantifiable results.

For data collection formal letter should be written from my host institution, to Ofla District
Administrative Office to get legal permit to conduct my data collection and sample size required
for research purpose.

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 Figure 3.2 Data collection methods and analysis

Landsat 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020

Downloaded from USGS official

website

Image processing (Remote sensing technique)

Topomap of the Image rectification
study area
Image enhancement Field/ground verification
N.Gondar tourist
Interview
map
Image classification (unsupervised and Field observation
GoogleEarth, DEM
supervised)
Image interpretation

Land covers comparison thematic maps

Up-to-date land cover maps

Statistical results of cover maps

Statistical results of cover change dynamics (charts,

graphs and tables)

GIS data integration and statistical analysis

Cover change comparisons
Land cover change rate analysis
NDVI response analysis from Landsat images

16
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