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A. G. JOURNEL
Abstract
/ •
?,
hL
ever x may be. For reasonsof writing simplicity,
we will consider the constant m as zero. Hence,
I •. ii \\/7-•" whatever x may be, E{Z(x)Z(x q-h)} = C(h).
In practice, there is always a scalewithin which re-
/^ 'I N ality meets the hypothesisof local stationarity.
i' V Geostatistics uses another moment of order two,
I
I the variogram,or 2•(h) = E{[Z(x) -- Z(x q- h)-]•'1
/
I which requires a weaker hypothesis, i.e., local
stationarity of increments [Z(x) -- Z(x q- h)].
When the covariance exists, both tools, the co-
7o{X
) Reolit• variance and the variogram, are identical and cor-
ß Data Iocotions ----- Z•(x)Non
½anditional
simulation
Z½(x)Conditional
simulation respond to each other by the relation
Z•(x) Krigin9
•(h) = C(o) -- C(h) (1)
FIG. 1. Reality and simulations.
FIG. 2. Reality, simulation,and kriging.The covariance or the variogram appears as the
sought-after autocorrelation function that char-
the spatialdisplayof a variablez0(x) (Matheron, acterizes the "fluctuation pattern" or degree of
1971,p. 50). Considera three-dimensional deposit regularity of the true surface {z0(x), x G D}.
D surveyedby drill-holesand coresof equalsection 2• (h), for example, can be estimated from experi-
and length. Let x = (x•,x2,x3)G R3 be a point in mental data,
the three-dimensionalspaceand xi, x2, xa be its 1 N ß
coordinates.Let z0(x) = z0(x•,x•,xa)be the grade 2**(h) = • Z {z0(xi)
- z0(xiq-h)}•',
of the corewith the gravity centerlocatedat point i=l
x. The dimensionsof the core are generally small if there are N couplesof data distant by h.
with regardto the extension of depositD; we will
then considerthe gradez0(x) as a punctualgrade.
The depositD consists of an infinityof punctual Variancesof dispersion
grades{z0(x), x G D}, someof them known at Let us recall how the simple variogram tool can
data locations{z0(xi), xi G I}. Consideringany characterize the "fluctuation pattern" of reality
line within the deposit,the true curve z0(x) is a (Matheron, 1971, p. 66).
sawtooth-like curve which, however, presents struc- The dispersionof the true punctual values z0(x)
tural characteristics(Fig. 1). There exist poor when x describes an area V C D is characterized
zones and rich zones in the deposit, and the two by a dispersionvariancewhich dependsonly on the
grades,
z0(x) andz0(x q- h), areontheaveragemore variogram,
similar as their distance h decreases.
Theprobabilistic
representation
ofz0(x)willtake
these structural characteristicsinto account. Lo- D•'(0/V)
=• dx •'(x- y)dy= ?(V,V),
cally at eachpoint xx, the true value z0(xx)is
interpretedas a particularrealizationof a random where • (V,V) denotesthe mean value of • (h) when
variableZ(xl). The two randomvariablesZ(xx) the two extremities M and M' of the vector h =
and Z(xx q- h) are correlated;that is, their two MM' describe independently the volume V. An
realizationsz0(xx)and z0(x•q- h) are not inde- estimate D •'*(0/V) of that variance is the a priori
GEOST.4TISTICSFOR CONDITION,4LSIMUL.4TIONS OF ORE BODIES 675
a• = E{EZ(x) - Z*(x)]2l
[Z•(x) - Z•*,•(x)]. Moreover, [Z•(x) - Z•,•(x)]
(3)
is isomorphicto [Z(x) - Z[(x)].
Hencethe ran-
The best linear estimatez[(x) is given by the dom functionZo(x) = Z[(x) q- [Z•(x) - Z•*,•c(x)],
formalismof kriging (see Matheron, 1971, p. 115) constructed by superimposing the residuals
that minimizes precisely the previous estimation [Z•(x) -Z•*.x(x)] of the secondrandomfunction
variance, whereasthe conditionalsimulation zo(x) Z•(x) to the kriging Z[(x) of the initial random
consideredas an estimate providesan estimation function Z(x), is isomorphicto Z(x). Thus, Zo(x)
variance twice greater than the kriging variance admits the same covarianceC (h) as Z (x). Further-
(seelater demonstration);i.e., E{[Z•(x) - Z(x)] •} more, the correspondingrealization
-- 2EII-Z[(x)- Z(x)]2l = 2a•.
The kriged value is on the average closer to zo(x)= z[(x) q- [-z•(x)- z•*,x(x)] (4)
reality,but thekrig.ed
surface
{z•(x), x G D} has is conditional to the real experimental data. At
no reasonto reflect the same "fluctuation pattern" any data location xi C I, by definition of kriging,
as the real surface {z0(x), x G D}. In particular, the two residuals z(xi)- z•c(xi) and z•(xi)-
the kriged surface will smooth out the real fluctna- Z•*,K(Xi
) vanish, so that zo(xi)= g(xi), •7xiG I.
tions (Fig. 2). The dispersionvariance D•(0/V) Hence the random function Zc(x) and its realiza-
of the kriged value, consideredas a random function tions zo(x) give a completesolution to the problem
676 A. G. JOURNEL
of conditional simulation, and the simulated surface simple one-dimensional simulations on lines that
{z•(x), x C D} doespassthe experimental data and turn in three-dimensional space. This "turning-
reflects the same "fluctuation pattern," i.e., same bands" method provides three-dimensionalsimula-
covariance or va.riogram, as the real surface. tions with acceptable computer costs comparable
It shouldbe noted that' (1) z•c(x), the kriged to classicalone-dimensionalprocedures.
value of z0(x), is a linear combination of the The turning-bandsmethod:In three-dimensional
neighboringdata, space, consider the line D• defined by the unit
vector u• (Fig. 3). On line D• consider a one-
z(x) -- 22 Xiz0(xi); dimensional random function Y(u0 stationary of
i
order two, i.e., with an expected value for E{Y}
of zero and a one-dimensionalstationary covariance
(2) the weighting factors Xi are given by the kriging
Cø)(hux). (11x,¾1,wx) representsa unit systemof
system which is a system of linear equations
orthogonalaxis and (hux,hvx,h•x)
the projectionsof
(Matheron,1971,p. 124); and (3) z•*.x(X)is the the vector h on these axes. The three-dimensional
kriged value of zs(x) basedon the samedata pattern
randomfunctionZ• (u•,v•,wx)definedby z• (u•,vx,wt)
as Z[(x). It is a linear combinationof the data = y(u•) is stationary of order two with a zero-
zs(xi). Obviously the weighting factors Xi are
expectedvalue and a three-dimensionalcovariance,
identical for *
and zx(x).
C•(h) = C•(hu•,hv•,h•x)= C(X)(hu0. To generate
The techniqueof conditionalizationprovidesat a realization zt of Z•, the value y(u•) of the one-
every point x C D both the simulatedvalue ze(x) dimensional realization at point u• of line D•
and the kriged value z[(x). The estimationvari-
is assignedin practice to all the points interior
ance of the simulation Ze(x) consideredas an esti-
to the band centered on the place {ux = constant}
mate of Z(x), derived from formula (4), is
(Fig. 3). The thicknessof the band is the spacing
E{l-Zo(x)-- Z(x)-]"}= 2E{[Z•c(x)-- Z(x)-]"}. In of the values y(u•) on line D•. We then consider
terms of estimation variance, the kriged value is
N directionsu•, u•, ... , ui, ... , us uniformly dis-
two times better than the simulated value. Esti-
tributed on the unit sphere. A newrealizationy(ui)
mation is not the purpose of simulation.
of a random function Yi equivalent to Y is gen-
erated on every line Di, the N random functions
Non-conditional simulation {Yi, i = 1, N} being independent. To each one-
dimensionalrealizationy (ui) correspondsthe three-
The following problem remains--to generate a
dimensional realization zi(ui,vi,wi)= y(ui). We
realization zs(x) of a random function Z(x) with then consider the sum
imposedcovarianceC(h). zs(x) doesnot have to
be conditional to the real data; i.e., at data loca- N
generally consist either in simulating orthogonal with {h,u• = h• denotingthe projectionof vector
random measures, the variance density of which h on axis u. The modulus of vector h is h =
meets the spectrum measure of the imposed co- •/h•+ ha a + haa. The preceding integralis written
variance, or in consideringmoving averages (on with sphericalcoordinates
circles, spheres,or any figure) which describea
field with a Poissondispersion(Jenkinsand Watts,
C (h) = dO C (•)([ h cosqO I ) sinqOdqO
1968; Guibal, 1972).
The originality of the "turning-bands" method,
initiated by G. Matheron and the Centre de
Morphologie Math•matique de Fontainebleau
2rf0h
- h Ca)(s)ds
(Math6ron, 1972, 1973; Guibal, 1972), consistsin (Fig. 3). The three-dimensional
covarianceC (h)
reducing any three-dimensional simulation to is imposed,hencethe one-dimensional
covariance
GEOSTATISTICS FOR CONDITIONAL SIMULATIONS OF ORE BODIES 677
I I I •'U
r
b
ti-k ti,I tkk
• ...... I I I
C(•)(s) =
o0
f(u q- v)f(u q- v q- s)E{T(dv)} •' C(•)(s)
= •'• • f(kb).f[-kb
-- bs3 (7)
ß
Fro. 7. Graphicanamorphosis.
GEOSTATISTICS FOR CONDITIONAL SIMULATIONS OF ORE BODIES 681
lOOm
o . drill-holes 7o 0
little •nel
overburden
i retoined
Fro. 8.
I? Definition of the service-variables.
dimensional realizations of the n random functions imposed covariance C(1)(s) = f.•. Consider n
{Yk(u), k = 1 to n} with the imposedone-dimen- such realizations px, . . . , p2, ßßß, p;, ßßß, p, inde-
sional covariancematrix {C•?,(s)}. Each covari- pendent of each other and the following linear
ance ,•k•,(s) of this matrix is given by formula (5), combinations,
Ck(•r)t
(S) = (1/.2/1')(0/0s)SCkk,(S). Second,theselines
are turned in three-dimensional space, thus gen- yk(u)
= • ak;pl(u),
Vk= 1ton.
erating the desired three-dimensional realizations
of the n randomfunctions{Zk(X), k = 1 to n} with The n realizations{yk(U), k = 1 to n} thus obtained
the imposed three-dimensionalcovariance matrix correspondto n random functions {Yk(u), k = 1
{Ckk,(h)}. to n }, the covariance matrix of which is
In practice, difficulties arise mainly from two
facts. C•(D,(s)
= [• aktak,,-]'C(•)(S),
Vk,k' = 1ton,
(1) Experimentaldata {Zk(Xi),zt,(Xj); xi, Xj G I} with the following •onstants identification,
may not allow correct estimation of all the terms
of the covariancematrix {Ckk,(h)}. Usually, the
direct covariances Ckk(h) are well estimated,
• aklak, 1= •kk'.
whereas some cross-covariancesCkk,(h) are less
The covariance matrix of {Yk(u),' k = 1 to n} is
easily estimated.
precisely the imposed covariance matrix of for-
(2) Spectral analysisalways provides a solution
mula (9).
to the problem of simulating one-dimensional
realizations reflecting the imposed covariance
First Case Study: The Prony Deposit•
matrix { Ctt,(s)},
(2) but may require heavy calcula-
tions (Blanc-Lapierre and Fortet, 1953; Jenkins, The Prony deposit (New Caledonia) is a sub-
1968). The simple method of the moving average, horizontal formation of nickel-laterite formed by
discussedpreviously, for simulation of one single weathering of basic rocks, largely peridotires. The
variable can be extended to simultaneous simulation deposit was surveyed by systematic grids of verti-
of n variables if all the covariances of the matrix cal boreholes,each borehole being analyzed meter
(1)
{C•t,(s)} are proportional to a unique covariance by meter for Ni grade and impurity Mg grade
C (•)(s), which is a convolution product: (Fig. 8). Sequential exploration of the deposits
C•),(s) = Xkk,-C(•)(S), Vk, k' = 1 to n provided successively,a global and local estimation
(9) of the resourcesin situ and a global and local esti-
C(2)(s) = f.•', Xkk,beinga constant.
1 Readers can refer to Huijbregts and Journel (1972) and
We have seenhow to generatea one-dimensional Journel (1973a) for more detailed accountson the geostatisti-
realizationp•(u) of a randomfunctionP (u) with the cal sequentialexplorationof the Prony ore body.
682 ,4. G. JOURNEL
histogram m=23,$
'l',l
m=23,7
------Conditional
s•tulntions
D•. OS
•.o,
0 2 •o 3o &o so mctcrs
tical mc•l
-.----Conditionql simulation
I I I I =h
o lO I00 :iO0 440 metcrs
I I I I j•h
zo ioo too &oo metcrs
20
[vcrtical direction
...... •-•';."•
.... •..t...
•.-4--.-,:- '•(hx,hy,hz)
= K0'+ K•-• (4hx2,hy2,h?)
q- K2-•2
(•/h/' q-h•2) (10)
Fro. 12. Panel gradesand drill hole grades.'
(h•,hy,hz) being the three coordinatesof vector h;
with a uniquesill K = ! and variousrangesa. In K0, K•, K2 being three positive constants; and 3'•
practice,if we look for a particularrealizationwith and 3'2being two sphericalschemeswith rangesa•,
an imposedexponentialor sphericalcovariance(K a2 and sills equal to 1. Hence, the spatial display
and a beingfixed), it is sufficientto draw the ade- of the variable grade g(x,y,z) is interpretedas the
a(h
inear model
10(
5,O Se.mi-va.
riogram
rain
height
I0 h
35
ß Rain-gauge
45
45
.40
40
3•
Krigedmap 30
25
Standard deviation
of estimation
40 .30 40
ß :::
i' 40
Variant Nol
40 o0 .
50
Variant No 2
Variant No ;5
spacing grid. These three simulated rainfalls regionalizedphenomenaappear as the only ap-
reflect the previousautocorrelationfunction,i.e., proachthat doesnot requireexpensiveinvestments
the linear variogram,and meet the true experi- of very precisesystematicsurveysor important
mental water heights at the locations of the rain bulksamples.The availabilityof highperformance
gauges (Fig. 14). computers and, above all, the originality of the
It appears that the true dispersionof water turning-bandsmethod that reduces any three-
heightsis much greater than the dispersionthat dimensional simulation to several one-dimensi6nal
couldhave beenestimatedfrom the krigedmap of simulations, now allow the realization of such three-
Figure13. Studiesof waterrunoffandrecuperation dimensional multi-variable simulations within rea-
must be doneon the simulatedmapsand not on the sonablecomputercosts. The practicalexperience
estimated map. It also appears that the three already gainedpredictsconsiderable development
simulatedrainfallscan differ considerably on high of conditional simulations for fields as different as
standard deviation zones, i.e., on the zones with the mining industry, meteorologyand hydrology,
few rain gauges. gravimetry and bathymetry, and the oil industry.
Conclusions Acknowledgments
For various problems, the simulation of ore This study was realized with the help of the
bodies and more generally the simulations of research engineers of the Centre de Morphologie
GEOSTATISTICS FOR CONDITION.4L SIMUL.4TIONS OF ORE BODIES 687
Math6matique of Fontainebleau. Dr. G. Matheron type deposits: Tenth Internat. Application of Computer
and Mathematics in the Minerals Industry Symposium,
kindly reviewed the manuscript. South African Inst. Mining Metall., Johannesburg,p.
207-212.
CENTRE DE MORPHOLOGIEMATHI•MATIQUE Jenkins,G. M., and Watts, D. G., 1968,Spectralanalysisand
35, RUE ST. HONOR• its applications: San Francisco,Holden-Day, 525 p.
FONTAI•EB•.EAU, FRANCE 77305 Journel, A., 1973a, Geostatisticsand sequentialexploration:
October11, December27, 1973 Mining Eng., v. 25, no. 10, p.44-48.
1973b, Le formalisme des relations resources-rdserves.
Simulation de gisements miniers: Revue de l'Industrie
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Huijbregts, C., and Journel,A., 1972, Estimation of lateritic- tions: Advances Appl. Probability, no. 5, p. 439-468.