PERT TECHNIQUE

Program Evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a technique for estimating. It applies a
weighted average of optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates when there is
uncertainty with the individual task/activity estimates. So, PERT is a method to evaluate and
estimate the time required to complete a task. This is like a Three-Point estimate but here
we give more weightage to the most likely estimate. The accuracy of single-point task
duration estimates may be improved by considering estimation uncertainty and risk. This
concept originated with the program evaluation and review technique (PERT). PERT uses
three estimates to define an approximate range for a task’s duration:

Most likely estimate (M): This estimate is based on the duration of the task, given the
resources likely to be assigned, their productivity, realistic expectations of availability for
the activity, dependencies on other participants, and interruptions.

Optimistic (O): The task duration based on analysis of the best-case scenario for the task.
This will tell the minimum time the task may take.

Pessimistic (P): The task duration based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for the task.
This will tell the maximum time a task can potentially take.

Now let us see how we do estimates using three-point (Triangular Distribution) and PERT.

Let “E” be the estimated time taken for the task after calculation.

The formulas are:

• Three-point estimate / Triangular Distribution: E = (O + M + P) / 3

• PERT: E = (O + 4M + P) / 6

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Eng. Hussien Mostafa Ahmed