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Automation and Its Macroeconomic
Consequences
Theory, Evidence, and Social Impacts
Automation and Its
Macroeconomic
Consequences
Theory, Evidence, and Social Impacts

Klaus Prettner
University of Hohenheim, Institute of Economics, Stuttgart,
Germany

David E. Bloom
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,
Boston, MA, United States
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Dedication

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whose love and support could never be replaced.
Contents

Preface xi

1. Introduction 1
1.1 Technological progress and its economic consequences 1
1.2 The economic consequences of automation: could this time
be different? 5
1.3 The social impacts of automation 7
1.4 The race against, or the race with, the machine? 11
1.5 Summary 13
References 14

2. The stylized facts 21


2.1 Adoption of automation technology 21
2.2 Dynamics of economic growth and welfare 22
2.3 Dynamics of the labor force and of unemployment 30
2.4 The evolution of inequality 34
2.5 Summary 41
References 42

3. Empirical evidence on the economic effects of


automation 47
3.1 Occupations, jobs, and tasks susceptible to automation 47
3.2 Cross-country evidence on the economic consequences of
automation 51
3.3 Summary 62
References 63

4. A simple macroeconomic framework for analyzing


automation 67
4.1 Preliminaries and definitions 67
4.1.1 Growth rates in discrete and in continuous time 67
4.1.2 Representative individuals and representative firms 69
4.1.3 Aggregate production function 70

vii
viii Contents

4.2 The simplest version of the standard 1956 Solow model in


discrete time 75
4.3 The Solow model in continuous time with technological
progress and with population growth 82
4.4 The Solow model with automation 90
4.5 Endogenization of the share of investment in traditional
physical capital 98
4.6 Automation and wage inequality 101
4.7 The tradeoff between growth and inequality 104
4.8 Summary 107
References 109

5. Endogenous savings and extensions of the baseline


model 113
5.1 Introduction 113
5.2 Cookbook procedures for static and dynamic
optimization 114
5.2.1 The method of Lagrange 115
5.2.2 The method of Karush Kuhn Tucker 123
5.2.3 Dynamic optimization in discrete time in the case of
two time periods 124
5.2.4 Dynamic optimization in continuous time 126
5.3 Endogenous savings in the Ramsey Cass Koopmans model 131
5.4 Automation in the Ramsey Cass Koopmans model 138
5.5 Endogenous savings in the OLG model 140
5.6 Automation in the OLG model 147
5.7 Discussion of extensions 150
5.7.1 Endogenous technological progress and automation 150
5.7.2 Technological unemployment 152
5.7.3 International trade, foreign direct investment, and
automation 154
5.8 Summary 156
References 158

6. Automation as a potential response to the challenges


of demographic change 163
6.1 Introduction and stylized facts 163
6.2 Demographic change and its economic consequences 168
6.3 How robots can help 172
6.4 Future employment projections based on automation 175
6.5 The reverse channel: could robots affect demography? 176
6.6 Summary 177
References 179
Contents ix

7. Policy challenges 187


7.1 The challenges 187
7.2 Education as a strategy to cope with the negative effects of
automation 188
7.3 Labor market policies 190
7.4 Taxation in the age of automation 192
7.5 Social security in the age of automation 197
7.6 Demand-side policies 201
7.7 Summary 202
References 205

8. Peering into the future: long-run economic and social


consequences of automation; with an epilogue on
COVID-19 209
8.1 Joblessness, misery, and deaths of despair or “the happy
leisure society”? 210
8.2 Spatial and regional implications: the future of cities 212
8.3 The question of how we care for each other 214
8.4 The meaning of being human 216
8.5 Epilogue on COVID-19 217
References 218

Index 223
Preface
News reports abound that robots, three-dimensional (3D) printers, and algo-
rithms based on machine learning are outperforming humans in many differ-
ent tasks (see, e.g., Davison, 2017; Financial Times, 2019; The Economist,
2014, 2017a, 2019). Industrial robots have long been familiar sights on
assembly lines in many businesses—especially in the automotive industry.
Recent advances, however, relate to tasks and activities that were seen as
being nonautomatable just a few years ago. For example, because driving
cars and trucks requires many instinctual moves and reactions to unforeseen
events, it has been regarded as an activity that an algorithm cannot perform.
Yet driverless cars are now being tested on public roads, and self-driving
cars and trucks are widely expected to become increasingly common within
the next 10 20 years—and much safer than human drivers (Chen, Kuhn,
Prettner, & Bloom, 2019; The Economist, 2018). Producing customized
parts, prototypes, and medical implants without any human labor input has
become feasible by advances in 3D printing (Abeliansky, Algur, Bloom, &
Prettner, 2020; The Economist, 2016, 2017b). Algorithms can diagnose ill-
ness—particularly rare diseases—and reliably interpret X-rays based on
advances in machine learning, the availability of large datasets to inform the
algorithms, and the secular rise in computing power over the preceding dec-
ades (Ford, 2015). While programs have written simple reports and straight-
forward newsflashes for quite some time, more surprising is that computers
have surmounted more complex challenges, such as writing novels and con-
ducting experiments to uncover some laws of nature (Barrie, 2014; National
Science Foundation, 2009; Schmidt & Lipson, 2009).
These unprecedented technological advances have raised fears that soci-
ety is unprepared for the attendant—potentially dramatic—economic and
social changes that may be looming. The most pressing concern from an eco-
nomic perspective is that the replacement of labor by automation technolo-
gies will lead to high rates of technological unemployment. In addition,
because less-educated persons are likely more susceptible to displacement by
automation, some fear that wage inequality might rise. Moreover, in contrast
to the wages of workers, the revenue that robots and other automation tech-
nologies generate flows to the owners of these devices, who are predomi-
nantly wealthy. Thus, functional income distribution might change such that

xi
xii Preface

capital’s share of income rises further and the labor income share corre-
spondingly decreases. Because labor income is much more equally distrib-
uted than wealth and the returns thereof, such changes would mechanically
lead to a rise in overall inequality.
The fear that new technologies might create technological unemployment
and raise inequality—sometimes referred to as “automation anxiety” and a
potential source of political resistance—is not a recent phenomenon (LeVine,
2018; see Frey, 2019 for an overview). The emergence of new types of
machines that threaten to replace workers has always sparked resistance in dif-
ferent parts of the population (e.g., the Luddite uprisings in the 19th century).
Also the economic literature analyzing the effects of technological changes from
different angles (Ricardo, 1821; Wicksell, 1906) concedes that the course of
technological progress does not only produce winners. However, past dire pre-
dictions of mass unemployment and widespread poverty due to the emergence
of modern machines did not come to pass.
The crucial question to ask in the age of automation is whether this time
will be different (Ford, 2015). Industrial robots, 3D printers, and devices
based on machine learning are not only increasing labor productivity and
thereby allowing workers to produce more output with less labor input, but
are also performing their tasks with full autonomy—i.e., they are replacing
workers altogether. For example, while the assembly line raised the produc-
tivity of those workers who were still required to staff the lines in factories
(and thereby their wages), an industrial robot does not require direct labor
input and thus replaces workers without raising their productivity (see
Growiec, 2019 for a discussion of the important distinctions among mechani-
zation, automation, and artificial intelligence (AI)). To what extent this dif-
ference between machines’ historical effects and robots’ contemporaneous
effects changes the likely outcomes of technological progress in the future
remains an open and highly important question.
While the potential economic effects of automation frighten many, other
ramifications of an automated future will potentially redefine the patterns
and rules by which we live together as a society. For example:
G Driverless cars will likely reduce the expense of commuting in terms of
opportunity costs. Easier commuting could lead to changes in settlement pat-
terns as cities are viewed as less attractive spaces to live (as opposed to
work), the elimination of public transport systems, and potentially dramatic
increases in the relative price of rural homes versus urban homes. The loss
of public transportation and the rise in the price of rural homes could in turn
reinforce the negative direct effects of automation on inequality discussed
previously.
G The implications of living together with robots might be profound for
human relations, and many related ethical and legal questions are highly
complex. What happens if the robot you own hurts someone or commits
Preface xiii

a crime? What is the definition of and what are the limits to ownership
when applied to a robot—a device that operates with at least a modicum
of its own (artificial) intelligence? Is having sex with a robot marketed
for that purpose the same as prostitution?
G Many people are uncomfortable with the superiority of computers over
humans when it comes to performing different tasks; some foreboding pre-
dictions even speculate that robots will displace humans from the top of the
“evolutionary ladder.” Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist
Tegmark (2017) shows that this scenario is not as easily dismissed as we
might like, speculating that things could go wrong even without the “hostile”
AI that we know from movies. All that is required for potentially serious
trouble is that the objective function of a superintelligent AI differs from
that of humans. Tegmark (2017) describes constructing a dam for electricity
generation as an example. If humans flood the valley after the construction
of the dam, they are not, in general, hostile toward the ants that populate
that valley. However, this lack of hostility does not help the ants. Or, in the
words of Elon Musk, “if there is a superintelligence whose utility function is
something that’s detrimental to humanity, then it will have a very bad effect
. . . it could be something like getting rid of spam email . . . well, the best
way to get rid of spam is to get rid of humans.”1
While some understandable fears accompany the rapidity of automation, auto-
mation also has many positive effects that we are already experiencing and that
will intensify in the future. For example, industrial robots often substitute for
human labor in physically demanding or even unhealthy tasks, such as painting
cars and lifting heavy goods and equipment. Thus, workers are often spared these
types of drudgery and can focus on more pleasant tasks. In addition, robot-
produced goods typically become cheaper, which benefits consumers greatly, and
3D printing enables customized designs that might not have been available before.
Yet another example is the benefit many patients receive from improved diagnos-
tic tools and better targeted treatments due to advances in machine learning. From
a macroeconomic perspective, rich countries are currently facing population aging
and declines in their labor force. Robots could help to alleviate such challenges
(Abeliansky & Prettner, 2017; Abeliansky et al., 2020; Acemoglu & Restrepo,
2018).
From a policy perspective, finding ways to cope with the challenges of auto-
mation, such as a declining labor income share, will become important because
social security systems and pension schemes are predominantly based on worker
contributions. In this debate, many favor the introduction of robot taxes. For
example, Bill Gates argued in a 2017 interview that “taxation is certainly a bet-
ter way to handle it than just banning some elements of it” and sketched out

1. Quoted from Vanity Fair, 2014, New establishment summit interview. Retrieved from https://
www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue 5 63&v 5 Ze0_1vczikA.
xiv Preface

how such a tax could be levied: “Some of it can come on the profits that are
generated by the labor-saving efficiency there. Some of it can come directly in
some type of robot tax” (Delaney, 2017). However, in practical terms, problems
can emerge with the implementation of such schemes. For example, the tax
would have to be introduced in many countries to avoid the relocation of the
mobile production factor “capital” to jurisdictions that do not collect the tax
(Gasteiger & Prettner, 2020). Furthermore, if both education and technology are
endogenous, taxing robots could discourage technological progress and educa-
tional investments to the extent that the welfare effects of a robot tax will be
negative (Prettner & Strulik, 2020). As another response to automation, some
argue that the introduction of an unconditional (universal) basic income will
become necessary.
At the time this manuscript went to press, the world was in the grip of
the COVID-19 pandemic. Notwithstanding the economic and social chal-
lenges posed by robots, we would note that they can also facilitate and sup-
port our adaptations to the continued threat of COVID-19 and of other
infectious disease risks that lurk ahead. Indeed, robots make social and
physical distancing among humans easier, and they can be designed to
undertake—safely—a wide range of essential tasks ranging from personal
grooming, medical exams, and shopping/delivery to detecting disinformation,
physical training, and deep cleaning/sanitization. On the other hand, the suc-
cess of robots, automation, and AI in slowing disease transmission and cush-
ioning the impacts of communicable diseases on business activities may
magnify the economic consequences for workers of actual and expected
pandemics.
This volume will not be able to solve—or even address—all of the ethi-
cal, legal, and existential dilemmas that emerge in the age of widespread
automation or give you useful advice on how to behave when coveting a
neighbor’s robot. It aims to shed some light on the possible macroeconomic
effects and socioeconomic consequences of automation. We also hope to
sketch some useful policy initiatives to cope with the negative effects of
automation. Given the speed of change we see on a daily basis, some of our
references, examples, numbers, and predictions are likely to become outdated
quickly. Therefore, we recognize that our endeavor can be only a first step in
understanding the far-reaching consequences of automation.

A tour of the book


Chapter 1 provides an overview of historical forms of technological progress
and recent developments in automation and AI. In so doing, it also sum-
marizes the public debate on the potential benefits and challenges of these
developments and compares historical and current arguments. In this context,
we try to identify aspects that still hold true in the debate on the effects of
new technologies and those that are either outdated or based on mixing up
Preface xv

concepts such as automation, mechanization, robotics, and AI. In addition,


we describe potential changes due to automation and AI that go way beyond
economic effects, starting from legal questions, to the choices of whether to
live in a city or in the countryside, and even to interpersonal relationships.
Chapter 2 provides an overview of the stylized facts of automation, the
long-run evolution of per capita income in the United States and other rich
countries, the development of employment and hours worked in the United
States over the last several decades, the evolution of income inequality, and the
share of aggregate income that accrues to labor as a factor of production. In the
discussion, we identify theoretical explanations for these stylized facts, focusing
on those dynamics in which automation might play a major role.
Chapter 3 is devoted to a survey of recent empirical findings that go beyond
mere descriptive analyses. First, we discuss the results of the literature that iden-
tify the technological potential of substituting robots for workers, in particular,
the prominent works by Frey and Osborne (2013, 2017) and Arntz, Gregory,
and Zierahn (2016, 2017). We then argue that economic considerations deserve
more scrutiny when discussing the potential substitution of human labor by
robots because replacing a cheap and flexible worker with an expensive and
inflexible robot might not always pay off (Abeliansky et al., 2020; Bloom,
McKenna, & Prettner, 2019). Finally, we discuss the aggregate macroeconomic
effects of automation based on several prominent recent studies that, despite
many differences, surprisingly all tend to agree that automation will have
(1) positive productivity effects; (2) negative employment and wage effects for
low-skilled workers in manufacturing, but either insignificant or even positive
employment and wage effects for high-skilled workers; (3) a positive effect on
job creation in the service sector; and (4) a negative effect on the labor income
share. These aspects are those that we model from a theoretical perspective in
the two subsequent chapters.
Chapter 4, the core chapter of the book from a theoretical perspective, first
introduces the basic model of economic growth (Solow, 1956) as virtually all
classes on economic growth teach it. Subsequently, we propose an automation-
augmented Solow-like model of economic growth that is capable of generating
the main results that the empirical literature finds when discussing the effects of
automation (increasing per capita GDP and a declining labor income share).
This framework is quite flexible, and relaxing various model assumptions can
provide additional insights that the baseline framework cannot, for example, on
the automation-driven effects on wage inequality in a model version that allows
for skill-specific heterogeneity of workers. Finally, we discuss the potential wel-
fare effects of automation based on the specifications of different social welfare
functions.
Chapter 5 is an extension of Chapter 4 that can be used in advanced
courses on automation at the bachelor’s degree level or in introductory
courses at the master’s degree level. It begins with a discussion of the main
mathematical tools of static and dynamic optimization and describes
xvi Preface

procedures for solving the corresponding types of problems. We then apply


these techniques to endogenize the consumption-savings decision of house-
holds and to characterize the two workhorse models of modern macroeco-
nomics: the neoclassical Ramsey Cass Koopmans model (Cass, 1965;
Koopmans, 1965; Ramsey, 1928) and the Diamond (1965) overlapping gen-
erations (OLG) model. Subsequently, we augment these models with
automation and show how the results differ (1) between the
Ramsey Cass Koopmans model and the OLG model and (2) between the
baseline automation-augmented Solow (1956) model introduced in Chapter 4
and the models with an endogenous consumption-savings choice in
Chapter 5. The chapter ends with a brief overview of the effects of automa-
tion in (1) R&D-based economic growth models, (2) search and matching
models of the labor market, and (3) models of international trade and
offshoring.
Chapter 6 discusses the stylized facts of demographic change from a
worldwide perspective and in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) countries. Then, it delves into the challenges that
declining fertility, rising life expectancy, and a declining workforce pose for
economic wellbeing and for the sustainability of social security systems and
pension schemes. Next, the chapter discusses the extent to which robots can
help in mitigating the negative effects of demographic change and presents
evidence suggesting that aging economies are indeed investing more in robot
adoption than countries that are not aging that rapidly.
Chapter 7 is devoted to discussing potential economic policies that might
help to cope with some anticipated negative effects of automation, such as
increasing inequality, declining labor income shares, and rising unemploy-
ment among some skill groups. First, we discuss rather uncontroversial policy
measures such as investments in education and skill upgrading for those who
are substituted by robots, but we also argue that these policies might not be a
silver bullet to cope with all automation-related challenges (compare with
Prettner & Strulik, 2020). We then address the question of whether and how
robots should be taxed and which alternatives to labor taxation are available
in times when the labor income share declines. Finally, we address issues
related to reforming social security and the introduction of conditional and
unconditional (universal) basic income schemes.
Finally, Chapter 8 provides an outlook of possible future scenarios of the
social and economic implications of automation and related moral issues. In
this chapter, we discuss topics such as automated warfare, automation-driven
deaths of despair, and human augmentation. This chapter is more speculative
than most of the other chapters, which tend to be built on theoretical models
and empirical evidence.
Preface xvii

Recommended use of the book in teaching


This book is mainly intended as a core textbook for introductory courses at
the bachelor’s degree level that are related to (1) automation and technologi-
cal change, (2) economic growth, (3) technology-induced inequality dynam-
ics, and (4) economic policy responses to technological change. For such
courses, we recommend Chapters 1 4 and 6 8. A syllabus for such a course
could be structured roughly along the following lines:
G Topic 1: Introduction and motivation (Chapter 1).
G Topic 2: The stylized facts of automation, economic growth, and inequal-
ity (Chapter 2).
G Topic 3: Empirical results on the effects of automation (Chapter 3).
G Topic 4: Introduction to economic modeling (Section 4.1).
G Topic 5: The Solow (1956) model as the basic framework for the analysis
of economic growth (Sections 4.2 and 4.3).
G Topic 6: The automation-augmented Solow (1956) model (Section 4.4).
G Topic 7: Extensions of the automation-augmented Solow (1956) model
(Sections 4.5 and 4.6).
G Topic 8: The welfare effects of automation (Section 4.7).
G Topic 9: Automation as a solution to the challenges of population aging
(Chapter 6).
G Topic 10: Implications of automation for economic policy (Section 4.7
and Chapter 7).
G Topic 11: A glimpse into the future of automation and AI (Chapter 8).
This book could also be useful for more advanced courses at the bache-
lor’s degree level or for introductory courses at the graduate level on auto-
mation and economic growth. In this case, we recommend including the
more advanced topics discussed in Chapter 5. A syllabus for such a course
could be structured along the following lines:
G Topic 1: Introduction and motivation (Chapter 1).
G Topic 2: The stylized facts of automation, economic growth, and inequal-
ity (Chapter 2).
G Topic 3: Empirical results on the effects of automation (Chapter 3).
G Topic 4: Introduction to economic modeling and optimization
(Section 4.1 and Sections 5.1 and 5.2).
G Topic 4: The Solow (1956) model as the basic framework for the analysis
of economic growth (Sections 4.2 and 4.3).
G Topic 5: The automation-augmented Solow (1956) model and its exten-
sions (Sections 4.4 4.6).
G Topic 6: The welfare effects of automation (Section 4.7).
G Topic 7: Workhorse models of modern macroeconomics I: the representa-
tive agent neoclassical growth model (Section 5.3).
xviii Preface

G Topic 8: Workhorse models of modern macroeconomics II: the overlap-


ping generations model (Section 5.5).
G Topic 9: Automation in the workhorse models of modern macroeconom-
ics (Sections 5.4 and 5.6).
G Topic 10: Extensions: automation in the context of endogenous techno-
logical progress, search and matching on the labor market, and interna-
tional trade (Section 5.7).
G Topic 11: Automation as a solution to the challenges of population aging
(Chapter 6).
G Topic 12: Implications of automation for economic policy (Section 4.7
and Chapter 7).
G Topic 13: A glimpse into the future of automation and AI (Chapter 8).
In addition, this book can also be used as a supplemental source for other
courses at the introductory level, for example, on optimization and its eco-
nomic applications (Chapter 5); on macroeconomics, particularly when
courses deal with the medium and the long run (Chapters 4 and 5); and on
technological progress in general. Finally, we hope that the book might be
useful to experts in other fields, journalists, and policymakers. For this audi-
ence, the more interesting chapters might be Chapters 1 3 and 6 8.

Acknowledgments
Of course, a book like this would not have been possible without many
insightful conversations on issues related to automation and without many
helpful comments and recommendations from colleagues at universities and
research institutes, feedback from students, advice from publishers and edi-
tors, and, of course, the great support of our families throughout this
endeavor and way beyond. In particular, we would like to thank Ana
Abeliansky, Jeff Adams, Eda Algur, Philipp Baudy, Tobias Baur, Thomas
Beißinger, Scott J. Bentley, Matthias Beulmann, Niranjan Bhaskaran,
Lakshmi Bloom, Sahil Bloom, Sonali Bloom, Julia Bock-Schappelwein,
Sebastian Böhm, Dario Cords, Giacomo Corneo, Daniel Dujava, Tora Estep,
Michael Evers, Maddalena Ferranna, Inga Freund, Emanuel Gasteiger, Niels
Geiger, Volker Grossmann, Harald Hagemann, Yueqing Hao, Franz X. Hof,
Karen Horn, Andreas Irmen, Sheela Bernardine Josy, Torben Klarl, Mark
Knell, Wolfgang Koller, Vadim Kufenko, Michael Kuhn, Astrid Krenz,
Martin Labaj, Clemens Lankisch, Mikulas Luptacik, Bernhard Mahlberg,
Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Anna Matysiak, Pedro Mazeda Gil, Volker
Meier, Redding Morse, Graham Nisbet, Catherine Prettner, Alexia
Prskawetz, Andreas Pyka, Miguel Sanchez-Romero, Julia Schmid, Johannes
Schwarzer, JP Sevilla, Christa Simon, Alfonso Sousa-Poza, Holger Strulik,
Paul Tscheuschner, Francesco Venturini, Huang Xu, Alexander Zeuner,
Rafaela Zierbus, Oliver Zwiessler, and the participants of research seminars
Preface xix

at the University of Bremen, the University of Economics in Bratislava, the


University of Hohenheim, the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, the
University of Porto, the University of Tübingen, the University of Würzburg,
and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research for highly valuable discus-
sions, comments on parts of the book or on drafts of some of the research
papers on which the book is based, and various helpful suggestions for
improvements. Some of the book’s materials draw on the lectures
“Economic Growth,” “Technology and Growth,” “Structural Change and
Inequality,” “Advanced Economic Growth,” “Economics of Inequality,” and
“Advanced Topics in Macroeconomics” taught at the University of
Hohenheim; the lecture “Quantitative Solution of Endogenous Growth
Models” taught at the University of Aarhus; the lectures “Open Economy
Macroeconomics” and “Advanced Macroeconomics” taught at the University
of Göttingen; and the lecture “Dynamic Macroeconomics” taught at the
Vienna University of Technology. We are indebted to the students in these
courses for their valuable feedback and their constructive criticism.
Preparation of this book was supported in part by grants from the National
Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number
P30AG024409, and from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

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xx Preface

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Preface xxi

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Chapter 1

Introduction
1.1 Technological progress and its economic consequences
The exceptionally rapid pace of technological progress since the Industrial
Revolution has allowed many countries and their inhabitants to reach histori-
cally unique levels of economic and social prosperity.1 In the 18th century,
global life expectancy hovered around 30 years, almost every other child
died before the age of 5 years, average income levels were barely above sub-
sistence level, and close to 90% of the population was illiterate (Maddison,
2010; Roser, 2018). The situation could not be more different a bit more
than 200 years later. Global average life expectancy is above 70 years, more
than 95% of children survive their fifth birthday, average real incomes have
increased by a factor of 11 on a global scale, and illiteracy is below 15%
(Maddison, 2010; Roser, 2018). Because these numbers are collective
averages, they imply that some richer countries such as Australia, Canada,
France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States have
experienced substantially larger gains and more pronounced transformations.
Notwithstanding the positive effects of technological progress on
material well-being and quality-of-life in the aggregate, some have
expressed fears about the distribution of the gains among different seg-
ments of the population—in terms of high unemployment, the impover-
ishment of workers, and the evolving nature of work in general (see, e.g.,
Frey, 2019; Scott & Gratton, 2020; Geiger, Prettner, & Schwarzer, 2018;

1. For a nonexhaustive list of articles and books showing that technological progress is the cen-
tral driver of economic growth and well-being and analyzing the extent to which technological
progress has profoundly changed our lives over the last few centuries, see Lucas (1988), Adams
(1990), Romer (1990), Grossman and Helpman (1991), Aghion and Howitt (1992, 1999, 2009),
Jones (1995, 2001, 2002, 2015), Nordhaus (1996, 2007), Jones and Williams (1998, 2000),
Kortum (1997), Dinopoulos and Thompson (1998), Landes (1998), Peretto (1998), Segerström
(1998), Young (1998), Howitt (1999), Galor and Weil (2000), Dalgaard and Kreiner (2001),
Kögel and Prskawetz (2001), Hansen and Prescott (2002), Mokyr (2002, 2005, 2018); Tamura
(2002), Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2004), Doepke (2004), Galor (2005, 2011), Acemoglu (2009),
Jones and Vollrath (2009), Morris (2010), Weil (2012), Grossmann, Steger, and Trimborn
(2013), Peretto and Saeter (2013), Strulik, Prettner, and Prskawetz (2013), Gersbach and
Schneider (2015), Kaplan (2015), Wootton (2015), Avent (2016), Brynjolfsson and McAfee
(2016), Gordon (2016), Norberg (2016), Prettner and Werner (2016), Ross (2016), Acemoglu
and Restrepo (2018b), Gersbach, Sorger, and Amon (2018), and Frey (2019).

Automation and its Macroeconomic Consequences. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818028-0.00001-6


© 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1
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prayers once more, and went to bed. I was restless the first
of the night, but toward morning I fell asleep and had a
most sweet dream. Methought I stood at the gate of a most
lovely and well-ordered garden, full of flowers, surpassing
all I had ever seen for beauty and sweetness, and bathed in
a light such as I never saw in this world of ours. Therein I
could see many spirits, walking, talking and singing, clothed
all in white, some of them with crowns of radiant stars. I
looked eagerly for some one I knew, and saw Sister Bridget
among the brightest, and then Amice; but they did not see
me nor could I attract their notice. At last my mother came
toward me, dressed and crowned like the rest, with her
hands filled with roses. Her face was like herself, but more
full of peace than I had ever seen it in this life, when it ever
wore a shade of care.

"Dear mother," said I, "will you tell me what I shall do?"

"Honor thy father and thy mother!" said she, in her old
voice of gentle command.

"But, mother, you did give me to the cloister!" I said,


trembling, I knew not why.

"I gave you to God!" said she, and smiled upon me.

"And is not this the same?" I asked.

Her answer was, "They have made the word of God of none
effect, through their tradition."

"Can I not come in to you, dearest mother?" I asked,


feeling an inexpressible longing to enter that fair Paradise.

"Not yet. Thy place is prepared, but thou hast yet much
work to do. See here are roses for thy bridal crown. Go
home to thy house and wait thy Lord's time."
She held out the flowers to me, as she spoke; a most
wonderful sweetness filled the air, and seemed to steal into
my very soul, bringing I know not what of calm and
quietness. Then I awoke, and behold, it was but a dream;
yet was it wonderful clear and real to me, and I seem as if I
had indeed seen my mother.

I had gone to sleep all tossed and undecided; but lying


awake in the clear early dawn, all seemed to be made plain
to me. How could I return to the convent, where half our
duties consisted in prayers offered to the saints and our
Lady—in dressing up images and the like? What should I do
there? Either I must live a life wholly false and hypocritical,
or I must expose myself to I know not what, of persecution,
and perhaps a fearful death. And here came to my mind the
niches I had seen, bricked up in the chapel vault, and the
nameless neglected graves in that corner, I can't think it is
our Lord's will that we should seek the crown of martyrdom,
though many I know have done so; for He expressly bade
his disciples, when they were persecuted in one city, to flee
to another. No, I can never go back! My mind is made up,
and I have told my father, who received my decision with
joy. I am no more Rosamond the postulant, but plain
Rosamond Corbet. My only trouble is for dear Mother
Superior, who I know will grieve over me as a lost soul. Oh,
that she also might come to see the light!

I have announced my decision to my father and mother,


and I see they are both pleased. In recounting my motives,
I was led to tell them what had happened in respect to
Amice, and how that I had been secluded so long. I saw
them exchange glances.

"So that was the beginning of your fever!" said my father,


striking his hand on the table. "Had I known you were so
mewed up, I would have had their crows' nest down about
their ears."

I assured him earnestly, that I had not been ill-treated, but


quite the contrary; adding that I did not think Mother
Superior had any choice in the matter.

"There is the mischief!" said my father. "Nobody is


personally responsible. Every one is a puppet whose strings
are pulled by some other puppet, and his again by some
one else. 'Tis an utter and miserable slavery from the
beginning to the end, and the superiors are perhaps as
much to be pitied as any one."

"I cannot but feel that our Rosamond hath had a great
escape," said Madam.

"Do you think that there is any truth in what we have


heard, of nuns that have been built up alive in their tombs?"
I asked, remembering those grisly niches I had seen in the
chapel vault.

"I cannot say for certain, but I have little doubt of it; and
indeed 'tis only very lately that the thing has ever been
denied," answered my father. "I know that in the Low
Countries it has been a common punishment for heresy. Old
Will Lee saw a woman buried alive, and said she sung
joyfully till the earth stopped her breath; and I know that in
Spain and Italy, far worse things have been done by the
Inquisition. 'Tis not easy to get at the truth about what goes
on in convent walls. A nun has no refuge and no help. She
is away from her own family, who can only see her now and
then. By-and-by they are told that she is dead, but who
knows how and where she died? They might have told us
when we came to see you, that you had died weeks before,
of the sickness, and we should have taken their word for it,
and all the time you might have been shut up in some
prison."

"I can't think any such thing ever happened at our house," I
said. "Dear Mother Superior is too kind and generous. Alas I
fear her heart will be sorely wounded."

"I fear so," answered my mother, sighing, "and also many


another. 'Tis a part of the cross that these days of shaking
and separation lay upon us, that we must ofttimes seem to
desert those who are nearest and dearest to us. It is a
woeful necessity."

And here the conversation ended. My father is to send


letters to Mother Superior, to acquaint her with the matter,
and I have also written. My heart is sore grieved, but what
can I do?

CHAPTER XXX.
June 30.

MASTER HAWKINS, Harry's captain, hath been to see us.


He's a rough sea dog, as my father says, but yet kind and
good, as it seems to me, and with a clear, honest face that I
felt disposed to trust. Harry took to him greatly, and is more
than ever confirmed in his resolution of sailing. Master
Hawkins says Harry is like a young bear, with all his troubles
to come; but he adds very sensibly that troubles come
everywhere, and reminded my mother of her young cousin
whose father would not let him go to sea because he was
the only son, and who was drowned in a pond in his father's
orchard. The ships do not sail till the last of August, so we
shall have Harry for two good months yet.

Something happened this morning which has vexed me


more than I believe it is worth. I was down at Freshwater,
to carry some baby clothes and a bottle of sack to Meg Yeo,
who is not getting up well from her lying-in. I noticed that
two or three people stared at me curiously, and methought
there was something odd in Meg's own manner, which,
however, melted away under the influence of the baby linen.
While I was there, Dame Lee, Meg's mother, came in.

"So, Mistress Rosamond, you are looking fine and stout


again," said she, and then to her daughter: "Did I not tell
you, Meg, they were but idle tales yonder woman told?
Does our young lady look like one haunted by spectres, or
hunted by a cruel step-dame?"

Her words were spoken aside, but not so low as that I did
not hear them.
"What do you mean, dame?" said I. "Why should I look
otherwise than well, or like one haunted by spectres?"

"For no reason that I know, Mistress," answered the old


woman: "only fools will tell tales and other fools believe
them. Nay, Meg, thou need not be making signs to me. 'Tis
right Mistress Rosamond should know."

"Know what?" I asked. "You are all as mysterious as a


miracle play this morning."

"There is no great mystery in the case," said Dame Lee.


"The whole matter is this. The woman Patience Hollins,
whom Madam Corbet sent away, has been telling
everywhere that your step-dame obliged you to leave off
your convent dress, and break your vows, that she might
wed you to a needy kinsman of her own, and also that the
very night the change was made your honored mother's
spirit appeared to you, all surrounded with flames and
burning sulphur, and reproached you with your
disobedience, and declared that it had taken away her last
hope of salvation. Patience says she saw herself the boards
where the spirit had stood, and they were all burned black—
and that she saw the ghost also at a distance, and smelled
the sulphur."

"She saw the ghost as near as any one," said and with that
I told them the tale as it was.

"Lo, did I not tell you as much!" said the dame, turning to
her daughter. "The wicked wretch! She deserves to be
hung! But is it true, Mistress Rosamond, that you are not
going to be a nun, after all?"

"'Tis quite true," said I. "You know my brother is going to


sea, and my father and mother naturally want me at home,
and there are other reasons. But there was neither force
nor persuasion in the case. It was left to myself to decide,
and I have, as I believe, decided rightly."

"And I am glad on't with all my heart!" said Dame Lee,


heartily. "I am no believer in shutting up young maids in
convent walls. They may do for those who have no other
home. But what can Patience mean by telling such tales?"

"She means to hide her own disgrace and dismissal, no


doubt," said I. "She is a wicked woman, and I dare say will
work me all the harm she can. I suppose the whole village
is ringing with this absurd tale."

"I shall tell the truth about it wherever I go, you may be
sure," said Dame Lee. "Mrs. Patience is not now my Lady's
bower-woman, that I should dread her anger. She used to
abuse my late Lady's ear with many a false tale, as she did
about Meg here, because, forsooth, Meg would not wed her
nephew. But I shall let people know what her legends are
worth."

"Do so," said I.

And I doubt not she will; for besides that, the Lees have
always been attached to our family from the earliest times,
the good gammer dearly loves a gossip, and nuts to her to
be able at once to contradict Patience and to have the story
at first hand. Yet, such is the love of all people for the
marvellous, that I should not wonder if the ghost story
should continue to be believed, and that for many
generations. *

* She was right. It has been one of the family ghost


stories ever since. There are enough of them to make a
chronicle by themselves.—D. C.
CHAPTER XXXI.

June 30.

A GREAT event has happened, so unexpected that I don't


believe it even yet.

Three days ago, as we were all sitting at supper, comes in


Thomas and says, "Here is a gentleman from Cornwall to
see you, Sir Stephen."

"Have him in, man!" says my father. "Would you keep him
waiting?"
"Nay, but he is so bespattered with his journey," says
Thomas, "and wearied as well. He says his name is
Penrose."

"Penrose—Penrose—the name hath a familiar ring;" said my


father, musingly, and then: "Bid him never mind his
spatters, but bring him in. He must needs be sore wearied
and wet too, riding in this storm."

The gentleman presently entered—an elderly man and thin


—his riding dress plain, almost to shabbiness. My father
rose courteously to receive him.

"You do not know me, Stephen," says the stranger: "yet we


have been playmates many a day at Tremador Court—"

"Joslyn Penrose!" exclaimed my father, and then ensued a


cordial greeting enow.

"And how is my good aunt?" asked my father presently.


"She is an old lady by this time."

"She is gone where are neither old nor young," answered


the stranger, sadly. "My good old friend and patroness was
buried more than ten days ago. You should have been
bidden to the funeral, but the weather was warm, and we
had to hasten matters."

"'Tis just as well!" said my father. "I don't believe she would
have asked me if she had had her way, for I was never in
her good graces since the day I was so maladroit as to kill
her cat with my cross-bow. 'Twas a mere piece of ill-luck,
for I would not have hurt a hair of poor puss if I had only
seen her. Well, she is gone, and peace to her soul! I hope
she has made thee her heir, after all these years, Joslyn!"
"Nay, that she has not!" answered Master Penrose. "'Tis
even that which has brought me here."

"The old cat!" exclaimed my father.

"Wait till you hear, before you condemn!" answered our


guest.

But here my mother interposed. The gentleman was surely


too weary and hungry to be kept discoursing of business.
He should be shown to his chamber, and then come to
supper with us, before he said another word.

"And so she has kept Jos Penrose waiting on her like a slave
all these years, managing for her, and serving her more like
a servant than a kinsman, only to bilk him at last," said my
father.

"I would not have been kept waiting!" said Harry. "I would
have struck out something for myself."

"You would not if you had been Joslyn," answered my


father. "He was not one to do so. He could manage well
enough for others, but never could keep two groats
together for himself. Besides that his life was spoiled by a
woman, as many another man's life has been, and will be.
Take care, Harry, my son, that you pay him all due kindness
and deference."

By this time our guest had come back, and was soon seated
at the table, each of us being presented to him in turn.
When my turn came, Master Penrose looked earnestly at
me, as if he had some special interest in me.

"So this is the young lady," said he, smiling somewhat


sadly. "In truth, though favor may be deceitful and beauty
vain, as the wise man said, Mistress Rosamond hath that in
her face that makes me rejoice in her good fortune."

"Rosamond is a good maiden, as maidens go," said my


father: "but what mean you, Joslyn? What good fortune
hath befallen her? Has my aunt left her guardian of her
popinjay, or given her the reversion of that black damask
gown, I remember so well?"

"More than that!" answered Master Penrose. "Mistress


Rosamond is sole heir to Tremador, and all its
appurtenances. 'Tis a fine estate, for our part of the world—
not less than an hundred and fifty a year, though saddled
with a life annuity of twenty pounds a year to myself. Also, I
am to have my nest for life in the old tower where I have
lived so long, and a seat at table and in hall, unless Mistress
Rosamond objects."

"Mistress Rosamond is no child of her father's if she does!"


said Sir Stephen. "But are you sure? 'Tis passing strange! I
thought she would make you her heir, or else leave all to
the convent yonder. Rosamond was her namesake, 'tis true,
but she has never taken any more notice of the child than
to send her some old-fashioned gewgaws once on a time.
'Tis not right nor fair, Joslyn! You should have been the heir,
and not my daughter."

"Nay, I am well content!" answered Master Penrose. "My


wants are few, and if Mistress Rosamond will let me live
where I have lived so long, I shall not trouble her many
years."

My mother looked at me, and made me a sign to speak;


and though I was so covered with confusion that I could
hardly find words, I did manage to say that, so far as I had
any voice in the matter, I hoped Master Penrose would
always make my aunt's house his home. Then Master
Penrose kissed my hand and made me a pretty old-
fashioned compliment; and I was so confused and stunned
with it all, that I think, like a fool, I should have burst out
crying, only that my mother, seeing my trouble, came to my
aid and rose from the table.

"We will leave you to talk over matters by yourselves," said


she, courteously. "Rosamond is somewhat overcome, and
no wonder."

When I was alone with my Lady, I soon recovered myself.


She does not like to have me weep, and I am learning self-
control. We talked the matter over, and I said what I felt;
that I could not think my aunt had done right—that she
should have made Master Penrose her heir, and not a
stranger, whom she had never even seen.

"People, even very good people, often make very strange


and unjust wills," said my Lady; and with that she sighed
somewhat sadly. "But we will not conclude that your aunt's
will is of this kind, till we know something more of the
circumstances. She may have had good reasons for the
arrangement. You heard what your father said about Master
Penrose, that though a good manager for others, he could
never keep too groats together for himself. Some notion of
this kind may have governed my old Lady Tremador in
leaving him only an annuity."

"I am sorry about this, for one reason," said I, presently.


"People will say I chose a secular life, because I had this
fortune left me."

My mother smiled. "Shall I tell you a motto I saw once in


Scotland?" said she. "'Twas graven over a door, and ran
thus—'They haf said—What said they? Let them say!' 'Twas
an odd motto for such a place, was it not? But it may serve
well enough for us. Many things will be said about your
choice, without doubt, but what matter? Let them say."

"Yet one cannot be indifferent to what folks say of one,"


quoth I: "and I hardly know if it is right to be so."

"It is not right to be so indifferent as to provoke comment


needlessly," answered my Lady; "but when we know that
we have done right, we must be content to leave the rest."

My Lady then saying that I looked weary, sent me to bed,


and I saw our guest no more that night.

I feel well acquainted and at ease with him now, however,


and shall, I hope, be more so. 'Tis settled that next week
we are all—that is my father, mother, Harry and myself—to
go to Tremador to take possession, and see what is to be
done in the way of repairs and the like. Master Penrose
journeys with us. My father would gladly have taken Master
Ellenwood, on whose judgment he relies greatly in business
matters, but Master Ellenwood expects his brother from
Amsterdam to make him a visit. Master Jasper is said to be
a wonderful scholar, a friend of Erasmus, and very deep in
the new learning, both Greek and Latin.

My mother, who has been in Amsterdam with her first


husband, says she fears our housekeeping will seem very
rough and sluttish to Master Jasper's Dutch notions. She
tells me that in Holland they strew no rushes on the floors
even of their dining-halls, but that the floors are made of
fine inlaid woods or stones, and the same are washed or
rubbed with fine sand every day, and then waxed till they
shine like glass. Madam herself is counted over particular by
our men and maids because she will have all the rushes
renewed and the rooms thoroughly swept every week
instead of every month, as used to be the way. Also, we will
have no rushes in her chamber or mine, saying that they
breed fleas and other vermin, and hide the dust. Certainly
the air in our house is far sweeter than I remember it
formerly. But it seems a great deal of trouble to wash floors
every day, and I should think would be damp and
unwholesome. Probably in Holland a little water more or
less does not matter.

My Lady has told me much of the comfort and splendor in


which the Dutch merchants live, of their beautiful pictures,
presenting flowers and other objects in all the hues of life,
of their noble collections of books, and the quantities of fine
house linen, garments, and other things which their wives
lay up and provide against the marriage of their daughters.
I remember Mother Monica telling Amice and me that in her
day the merchants of London lived in far more comfort than
the nobles and courtiers.

This journey into Cornwall, which seems like a perilous


adventure to me, my Lady makes nothing of, save as she
seems to enjoy the thoughts of it. My father is going to stop
on the way at the house of Sir John Carey, who hath long
owed him a sum of money. He is a kinsman of our
neighbors at Clovelly, but they know little of him, save that
he last year lost his only son in some very sad way, that I
did not clearly understand. Sir John is now old and feeble,
and hath more than once sent asking my father to come
and see him, but it hath not been convenient hitherto.
CHAPTER XXXII.

July 20, Tremador, in Cornwall.

HERE we are, at this grim, sad old house, which yet hath a
wonderful charm to me, maybe because it is my house. It
seems such a surprising thing to call a house mine. We have
been here three or four days, and I am not yet weary of
exploring the old rooms, and asking questions of Mistress
Grace, my aunt's old bower-woman. The good soul took to
me at once, and answers all my queries with the most
indulgent patience. Albeit I am sometimes sore put to
understand her. Mistress Grace, it is true, speaks English,
though with a strong Cornish accent; but some of the
servants and almost all the cottagers speak the Cornish
tongue, which is as unknown as Greek to me. Master
Penrose, or Cousin Joslyn, as he likes best to have me call
him, who is very learned, says the language is related to
the Welsh.
Mistress Grace has also been very much interested in
dressing up poor Joyce. She has made the child a nice suit
out of an old one of her Lady's, combed and arranged her
tangled hair, and so forth, and 'tis wonderful how different
Joyce looks. She is really very lovely. She seems to like me
well, but clings most to my Lady, whom she would fain
follow like a little dog, I think. I wish she would get over
that way of shrinking and looking so scared when any one
speaks to her; but I dare say that will come in time, poor
thing. My mother says 'tis a wonder she hath any sense left.
But what a way is this of writing a chronicle! I must begin,
and orderly set down the events of our journey as they
happened.

It took some days to make our preparations, for my mother


would have me in suitable mourning before setting out. She
said it was no more than due respect to our aunt's memory,
seeing what she had done for me. 'Twas like putting on my
old convent weeds again; and strange to say, seemed as
new to me as if I had not worn black all my life long. Dick
(who has been away on some business of my Lord's,)
coming in upon me in the twilight, started as if he had seen
a ghost.

"I thought we had seen the last of that!" said he.


"Rosamond, I thought you had done with the convent
forever!"

"And so I have!" I answered; and told him how it was.


Methought he did not seem so well pleased as I should have
been, had such a piece of good luck befallen him.

"They will be more loth than ever to give you up!" said he.
"The estate of Tremador would be a fine windfall for them!
Rosamond, you have need to be on your guard! They will
not let you go without a struggle. Pray be careful and do not
wander away by yourself, especially while you are on the
journey, or in Cornwall."

"Why, what do you fear for me?" I asked. "You are not used
to be so timid." I wished the words unsaid in a moment, for
I saw that they hurt him.

"'Tis not for myself, if I am timid!" he answered me, with a


look of reproach; "but I suppose plain Dick Stanton, the son
of a younger son, must not be too free with the heiress of
Tremador!"

A year ago, I suppose, we should have had our quarrel out


and made it up again in our old childish fashion; but I did
not feel like that now.

"Richard," says I, "did you learn that fashion of speech out


of the book you would not lend me that day in the maze?
For I too have been studying it, and I have found no such
thing, but on the contrary a good deal about thinking no
evil," says I.

He had turned to go, but was back at my side in a moment.


"Forgive me, Rosamond!" he whispered; "I am very wrong!"

"That indeed you are!" said I. "Why should my aunt's will


make any difference between us, who have been playmates
from the time we were little children?"

"But we are not little children now!" he answered me, with a


strange break in his voice. "We are not children now, and
never can be again: and oh, Rosamond, I have been
cherishing such sweet hopes ever since I heard that you
had given up being a nun!"

I don't know what more he might have said, but my father


came in just then, and would have all the news of Dick's
journey; and we were not alone again.

"Richard and my Lord rode one stage with us beyond


Biddeford. My Lord and my father were deep in converse
(the roads being good for the first stage, we were able to
ride two abreast), and Richard rode by my side, Harry as
usual being close to my mother. But there was little chance
for any private converse, and I think we were both very
silent. My Lord would send one of his own men with us as
an additional guard, though methinks our own three, with
my father and Harry, should be enough.

"I would loan you Dick here, but that he is my right-hand


man—I cannot spare him," said my Lord, as we parted.
"Take care of your heart, my fair cousin, and do not lose it
to any of the Cornish knights. Remember, 'Better a poor
neighbor than a rich stranger.'"

"Aye, my Lord, but there is another proverb—'Better kind


strangers than strange kin,'" I answered.

"What, have you and Dick quarrelled? Nay, I shall not have
that!" whispered my Lord in mine ear, as he gave my cheek
a parting salute. "Be kind to him, my Rose of May! He was
faithful to you when he had many a temptation to be
otherwise."

Richard kissed my cheek, as usual, at parting, but there


was that in his look and the pressure of his hand—

[I don't know why I should have drawn my pen through


this, as it seems I did. I suppose I could not yet feel that
'twas no sin to think of my cousin. I knew then that Dick
loved me, and from my Lord's whisper, I could guess well
enough that he was no ways averse to the match, and yet I
felt, I know not how, as if I had committed a mortal sin for
which yet I could not repent. The truth was, I could not yet
quite come to feel that I was a free woman, at least under
no law but my father's will. I know I rode in a kind of dream
all the rest of that day.]

We reached the end of our stage about four of the clock,


tired and wearied enough, yet with no adventures more
than those which I believe befall all travellers, of tired
beasts and men, plentiful splashes of mud, and once or
twice a horse stuck fast in the mire and hardly got out
again. Cousin Joslyn being with us, we were in no danger of
missing the road, as we should otherwise have been, and
our numbers were great enough to keep in awe any bands
of robbers that we were likely to meet in these parts.

We stayed the first night at a farm-house, where the good


yeoman and his wife made us heartily welcome to the best
they had of fowls, bacon, clotted cream, and I know not
what country dainties, and we in return for their hospitality
told them the last news from London and the Court. They
had heard something even in this odd corner of the world of
the good Queen's disgrace, and the women were eager for
particulars.

"'Tis all the fault of the new doctrines—those pestilent


heresies that crawl over the land like palmer worms," said a
begging friar, a guest like ourselves, but methought scarce
so welcome. "'Tis they have put these maggots in the King's
head."

"Nay, I think you are wrong there," answered my father.


"'Tis true, Mistress Anne is reported for a Lutheran, and
maybe some of the same sort may build hopes on her
advancement; but Luther himself has lifted his voice
manfully against the divorce, and Tyndale—he who has set
forth this new translation of the Gospels—"
"The curses of Mother Church and all the saints upon him!"
interrupted the friar, spitting in token of his abhorrence. "He
is the arch fiend of them all—worse than Luther himself,
even!"

"Be that as it may, he hath written a letter against the


divorce, and that of the sharpest!" answered my mother.
"'Tis said his Majesty's wrath was aroused far more by the
letter than it was even by the translation of the Gospels."

"Aye, have they got the Gospels in English again?" said a


very old man, who had been sitting in a great chair,
apparently unmindful of all that was going on. (I had seen
with pleasure how neat and clean he was, and how careful
the good woman was to prepare his mess of food, serving
him with the best on the board.) "Well, well, the world goes
on, but methinks it goes back as well—"

"How so, good father?" asked my mother.

"Oh, 'tis but an old man's tale now, my lady; but when I
was very young—younger than your son yonder—there was
great stir about one Wickliffe, who, 'twas said, made an
English Bible. Our parish priest had one, and read it out to
us in the church many a Sunday, marvellous good words,
sure—marvellous good words. But they stopped him at last
and hied him away to some of their convent prisons. 'Twas
said that he would not recant, and they made way with him.
They said 'twas rank heresy and blasphemy—but they were
marvellous good words—I mind some of them now—'Come
unto me, and I will refresh you, ye weary and laden.' It ran
like that, as I remember: 'God loved the world so that he
gave his Son—that he who believed should have—should
have'—what was that again?"

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