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Jyoti Prakash Singh
Paramartha Dutta
Amlan Chakrabarti
Ad Hoc
Networks
A Statistical Perspective
Ad Hoc Networks
Jyoti Prakash Singh Paramartha Dutta
•
Amlan Chakrabarti
Ad Hoc Networks
A Statistical Perspective
123
Jyoti Prakash Singh Amlan Chakrabarti
Department of Computer Science A. K. Choudhury School
and Engineering of Information Technology
National Institute of Technology, Patna University of Calcutta
Patna, Bihar Kolkata, West Bengal
India India
Paramartha Dutta
Department of Computer
and System Sciences
Visva-Bharati University
Bolpur, West Bengal
India
ISBN 978-981-10-8769-1 ISBN 978-981-10-8770-7 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8770-7
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018936739
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Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.1 Differences Between Cellular and Ad Hoc . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1.2 Applications of Ad Hoc Wireless Networks . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.3 Technical Challenges in MANET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.3 Aims and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.4 Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.5 Book Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2 Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.1 Introduction to Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3.1 Autoregressive Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.4 Time Series Analysis and MANET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3 Preliminaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.1 Introduction to Mobile Ad Hoc Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.2 Routing Protocols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.3 Mobility Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.3.1 Random Walk Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.3.2 Gauss–Markov Mobility Model (GM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.3.3 Manhattan Grid Mobility Model (MHG) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.3.4 Random Way Point (RWP) Mobility Model . . . . . . . . . . 21
3.3.5 Random Direction Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.3.6 Reference Point Group Mobility (RPGM) Model . . . . . . . 22
3.4 Clustering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3.5 Works Related to MANET Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
v
vi Contents
4 Neighbour Counts Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.3 Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.4 Experiments and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.4.1 Analysis for Varying Speed and a Fixed Sampling
Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 33
4.4.2 Analysis for Constant Speed and Varying Sampling
Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 36
4.4.3 Analysis for Varying Speed and Varying
Sampling Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4.4 Analysis for Varying Transmission Range . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.4.5 Comparison for Different Mobility Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
5 Link Load Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
5.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5.3 Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5.4.1 Analysis for Gauss–Markov Mobility Model . . . . . . . . . . 50
5.4.2 Analysis for Manhattan Grid Mobility Model . . . . . . . . . 51
5.4.3 Analysis for Reference Point Group Mobility Model . . . . 52
5.4.4 Analysis for Random Way Point Mobility Model . . . . . . 53
5.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
6 Path Length Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.3 Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.4.1 Analysis Under Gauss–Markov Mobility Model . . . . . . . 62
6.4.2 Analysis Under Manhattan Grid Mobility Model . . . . . . . 64
6.4.3 Analysis Under Reference Point Group Mobility
Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... 66
6.4.4 Analysis Under Random Way Point Mobility
Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... 67
6.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... 70
7 Clustering Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
7.2 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
7.3 Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Contents vii
7.4.1 The Effect of Mobility Model and Speed on Number

of Clusters . . . . . . . . . .......................... 78
7.4.2 The Effect of Mobility Model and Speed on Cluster
Head Changes . . . . . . .......................... 80
7.4.3 The Effect of Mobility and Speed on Node Weights . . . . 80
7.5 Weight Prediction . . . . . . . . . .......................... 83
8 Delay Modelling and Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
8.2 Literature Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
8.3 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
8.4 Artificial Neural Network Model for Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
8.5.1 Analysis of Gauss–Markov Mobility Model . . . . . . . . . . 94
8.5.2 Analysis of Manhattan Grid Mobility Model . . . . . . . . . . 96
8.5.3 Analysis of Random Way Point Mobility Model . . . . . . . 99
8.6 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
8.7 Fuzzy Time Series Model for Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
8.8 Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
8.8.1 Regression Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
8.8.2 Fuzzy Time Series Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
8.8.3 Weighted Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
8.9.1 Analysis of Gauss–Markov Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
8.9.2 Analysis of Manhattan Grid Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
8.9.3 Analysis of RPGM Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
8.9.4 Analysis of RWP Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
8.10 Comparison of ANN Versus Weighted Modelling
of End-to-End Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
8.11 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
9 Conclusion and Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
9.1 Book Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
9.1.1 Modelling Neighbour Count . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
9.1.2 Modelling Link Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
9.1.3 Modelling Path Length . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
9.1.4 Modelling Weight-Based Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
9.1.5 Modelling End-to-End Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
9.1.6 Delay Modelling Using Artificial Neural Network . . . . . . 119
9.1.7 Delay Modelling Using Fuzzy Time Series . . . . . . . . . . . 119
9.2 Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
About the Authors
Dr. Jyoti Prakash Singh did his B.Tech. in Computer Science and Technology
from Kalyani Government Engineering College, West Bengal, India, and M.Tech.
in Information Technology from Sikkim Manipal Institute of Technology, Sikkim,
India. He completed his Doctor of Philosophy in Technology from the University of
Calcutta in 2015. He is currently an Assistant Professor in the Department of
Computer Science and Engineering at National Institute of Technology Patna,
Bihar, India.
He has co-authored six books in the areas of C programming, data structures and
operating systems with leading publishing houses such as McGraw-Hill and Vikas
Publishing. He has more than 40 research publications in various national and
international journals, conference proceedings and chapters. His research interests
include big data analytics, text mining and ad hoc network. He is a senior member
of IEEE, member of ACM and life member of Computer Society of India (CSI);
Indian Society for Technical Education (ISTE); International Association of
Engineers (IAEng), Hong Kong; International Association of Computer and
Information Technology (IACIT), Singapore.
Prof. Dr. Paramartha Dutta was born in 1966 and did his bachelor’s and mas-
ter’s in Statistics from the Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, in 1988 and 1990,
respectively. He afterwards completed his Master of Technology in Computer
Science from the same institute in 1993 and Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering
from the Bengal Engineering and Science University, Shibpur, in 2005, respec-
tively. He has served in the capacity of research personnel in various projects
funded by Government of India, which include DRDO; CSIR; Indian Statistical
Institute, Calcutta. He is now a Professor in the Department of Computer and
System Sciences at the Visva-Bharati University, West Bengal, India. Prior to this,
he served as full-time faculty member in College of Engineering & Management,
Kolaghat. He remained associated as Visiting/Guest Faculty of several
universities/institutes encompassing West Bengal University of Technology,
Kalyani University, Tripura University, National Institute of Technology,
Arunachal Pradesh, to name some. He has co-authored eight books and has also
ix
x About the Authors
seven edited books with leading publishing houses such as Springer and
Elsevier IGI Global to his credit. He has published about 185 papers in various
journals and conference proceedings, both international and national, as well as
several chapters in edited volumes of reputed international publishing houses like
Elsevier, Springer-Verlag, CRC Press, John Wiley, to name a few. He has guided
three scholars who already had been awarded their Ph.D. Presently, he is super-
vising six scholars for their Ph.D. programme. He as an investigator has success-
fully implemented projects funded by AICTE, DST of the Government of India. He
is a Life Fellow of the Optical Society of India (OSI), Institute of Electronics and
Telecommunication Engineering (IETE), Life Senior Member of Computer Society
of India (CSI), Life Member of Indian Science Congress Association (ISCA),
International Association for Computer Science and Information Technology
(IACSIT), Institution of Engineers, Hong Kong (IEng), Indian Society for
Technical Education (ISTE), Indian Unit of Pattern Recognition and Artificial
Intelligence (IUPRAI)—the Indian affiliate of the International Association for
Pattern Recognition (IAPR), Institute of Engineers of India (IEI), Senior Member of
Association of Computing Machinery (ACM), IEEE Computer Society (USA) and
IEEE Computational Intelligence Society, USA.
Prof. Dr. Amlan Chakrabarti is a Full Professor of Information Technology in

the A. K. Choudhury School of Information Technology at the University of
Calcutta. He is also the Dean of Faculty of Engineering and Technology of his
university. He is an M.Tech. from the Department of Radiophysics and Electronics
at the University of Calcutta and did his doctoral research at the Indian Statistical
Institute, Kolkata. He was a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the School of Engineering,
Princeton University, USA, during 2011–2012. He is the recipient of DST
BOYSCAST Fellowship Award in Engineering Science in 2011, Indian National
Science Academy (INSA) Visiting Faculty Fellowship in 2014, JSPS Invitation
Research Award in 2016 and Erasmus Mundus Leaders Award from EU in 2017.
He has been associated with reputed international and national institutes of repute
as a visiting professor, namely University of SUNNY Buffalo, USA; GSI Helmholtz
Research Laboratory, Germany; University of Bremen, Germany; CERN, Geneva;
Kyushu Institute of Technology, Japan; etc.
He is one of the Principal Investigators of the Center of Excellence in Systems
Biology and Biomedical Engineering at the University of Calcutta. He has received
multiple project grants in the areas of embedded system design, VLSI design,
quantum computing and computer vision from various national and international
agencies. He has published around 120 research papers in refereed journals and
conferences. He is a Sr. Member of IEEE, Secretary of IEEE CEDA India Chapter,
ACM Distinguished Speaker and Sr. Member of ACM. His areas of research interest
are quantum computing, embedded systems design, VLSI design, computer vision
and analytics.
List of Figures
Fig. 3.1 A typical mobile ad hoc network topology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16

Fig. 3.2 An example of Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . .. 21
Fig. 3.3 An example of two-dimensional RWP mobility in the unit
square . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 22
Fig. 3.4 An example of RPGM for a group of three nodes . . . . . . . . . .. 23
Fig. 3.5 An example cluster structure in MANET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 24
Fig. 4.1 Variation of the NC autocorrelation with speed
for the Gaussian mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 33
for the random walk mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 34
for the Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 35
Fig. 4.4 Variation of the NC autocorrelation with sampling time
for the Gaussian mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 36
for the random walk mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 37
for the Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 38
Fig. 4.7 Variation of the NC autocorrelation with the transmission
power for the Gaussian mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 40
power of the random walk mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 41
power for the Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . .. 42
Fig. 4.10 PACF of the sample NC data values for the Gaussian mobility
pattern. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44
Fig. 4.11 Predicted value of the NC using the ARð2Þ model for the
Gaussian mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44
Fig. 5.1 Time series plot of link load for different routing protocols
using Gauss–Markov mobility pattern. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 50
xi
xii List of Figures
Fig. 5.2 Autocorrelations of link load values for AODV routing

protocol using Gauss–Markov mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 51
Fig. 5.3 Autocorrelations of link load values for DSDV routing
Fig. 5.4 Autocorrelations of link load values for DSR routing
Fig. 5.5 Time series plot of link load for different routing
protocols using Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . .. 52
protocol using Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . .. 52
using RPGM mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
protocol using RPGM mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
using Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 54
protocol using Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . .. 54
Fig. 5.16 Autocorrelations of link load values for DSR routing protocol
Fig. 5.17 Partial Auto Correlation function of link loads using a AODV
protocol, b DSDV protocol, c DSR protocol moving under
Gauss–Markov mobility pattern, d using AODV protocol,
e DSDV protocol, f DSR protocol moving under Manhattan
Grid mobility pattern, g using AODV protocol, h DSDV
protocol, i DSR protocol moving under Reference Point Group
mobility pattern, j using AODV protocol, k DSDV protocol
and l DSR protocol moving under Random Way Point
mobility pattern. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 56
Fig. 5.18 Forecast value of LL made by AR(1) model for DSR routing
with Gauss–Markov mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 57
Fig. 6.1 Variation of path length for different routing protocols using
Gauss–Markov mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 62
List of Figures xiii
Fig. 6.2 Time series plot of path length for different routing protocols
Fig. 6.3 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation
functions (PACF) of path length values for AODV routing
functions (PACF) of path length values for DSDV routing
functions (PACF) of path length values for DSR routing
Fig. 6.6 Variation of path length for different routing protocols using
Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 65
using Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 65
Fig. 6.10 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial autocorrelation
Fig. 6.11 Variation of path length for different routing protocols
protocol using RPGM Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
Fig. 6.15 Variation of path length for different routing protocols
xiv List of Figures

Fig. 6.20 Forecast versus actual path length for AODV routing protocol
Fig. 7.1 An example cluster structure in MANET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 74
Fig. 7.2 Change of clusters counts over time for nodes moving
with average speed of 10 m/s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 79
Fig. 7.3 Change of clusters counts over time for nodes moving
Fig. 7.4 Number of cluster head changes over time for nodes moving
Fig. 7.5 Number of cluster head changes over time for nodes moving
Fig. 7.6 Top: Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Bottom: Partial
autocorrelation function (PACF) for nodes moving
with speed of 10 m/s following Gauss–Markov mobility . . . . .. 81
autocorrelation function (PACF) for nodes moving
with speed of 10 m/s following random direction mobility . . . .. 82
autocorrelation function (PACF) for nodes moving with speed
of 10 m/s following restricted random walk mobility . . . . . . . .. 82
autocorrelation function (PACF) for nodes moving with speed
of 10 m/s following Random Way Point mobility . . . . . . . . . .. 83
Fig. 7.10 Forecast weight versus actual weight of nodes moving
with speed of 10 m/s following Gauss–Markov mobility . . . . .. 85
Fig. 7.11 Forecast weight versus actual weight of nodes moving
with speed of 20 m/s following random direction mobility . . . .. 85
Fig. 7.12 Forecast weight versus actual weight of nodes moving with
speed of 30 m/s following restricted random walk mobility . . .. 86
Fig. 7.13 Forecast weight versus actual weight of nodes moving with
speed of 40 m/s following Random Way Point mobility . . . . .. 86
Fig. 8.1 Actual versus predicted delay for network with AODV
routing under Gauss–Markov mobility model . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95
Fig. 8.2 Actual versus predicted delay for network with DSDV
Fig. 8.3 Actual versus predicted delay for network with DSR
Fig. 8.4 Actual versus predicted delay for network using AODV
routing for Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97
Fig. 8.5 Actual versus predicted delay for network using DSDV
routing for Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97
List of Figures xv
Fig. 8.6 Actual versus predicted delay for network using DSR routing
for Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 98
Fig. 8.7 Actual versus predicted delay for network using AODV
routing for Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . .. 99
Fig. 8.8 Actual versus predicted delay for network using DSDV
routing for Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Fig. 8.9 Actual versus predicted delay for network using DSR
routing for Random Way Point mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Fig. 8.10 A trapezoidal fuzzy number . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Fig. 8.11 Actual versus predicted delay for network following
Gauss–Markov mobility pattern with AODV routing
protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Gauss–Markov mobility pattern with DSR routing
protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Manhattan Grid mobility pattern with AODV routing
protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Manhattan Grid mobility pattern with DSR routing
protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Fig. 8.15 Actual versus predicted delay for network following RPGM
mobility pattern with AODV routing protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Fig. 8.16 Actual versus predicted delay for network following RPGM
mobility pattern with DSR routing protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Fig. 8.17 Actual versus predicted delay for network following RWP
mobility pattern with AODV routing protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Fig. 8.18 Actual versus predicted delay for network following RWP
mobility pattern with DSR routing protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
List of Tables
Table 4.1 Changes in the NC autocorrelation with time and with speed
for the Gaussian mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39
Table 4.2 Comparison of the thresholds for varying transmission
ranges and different mobility patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43
Table 4.3 Comparison of the threshold for different speeds
and different mobility patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43
Table 4.4 Comparison of the threshold for different sampling times
and different mobility patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43
Table 4.5 AIC values of autocorrelation model for different lags . . . . . .. 44
Table 5.1 Finding the order of autoregressive model using AIC for
link load using DSR routing under Gauss–Markov mobility
pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 56
Table 6.1 Finding the order of autoregressive model using AIC
for path length using AODV routing under Gauss–Markov
mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 71
Table 7.1 AIC values for different order of AR models for weight
values of nodes moving with speed of 10 m/s under
Gauss–Markov mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 83
random direction mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 84
restricted Random Way Point mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 84
Random Way Point mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 84
Table 8.1 The statistical parameters of the data sets under
Gauss–Markov mobility model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 94
Table 8.2 The goodness measures for end-to-end delay of network
following Gauss–Markov mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 96
xvii
xviii List of Tables
Table 8.3 The statistical parameters of the data sets under Manhattan
Grid mobility model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97
Table 8.4 The goodness measures for end-to-end delay of the network
following Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 98
Table 8.5 The statistical parameters of the data sets under Random
Way Point mobility model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 99
Table 8.6 The goodness measures for end-to-end delay of the network
following Random Way Point mobility pattern. . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Table 8.7 Values of regression coefficients for delay data set . . . . . . . . . . 104
Table 8.8 The statistical parameters of the data sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Table 8.9 The goodness measures of end-to-end delay in network
following Gauss–Markov mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
following Manhattan Grid mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
following RPGM mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
following RWP mobility pattern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Table 8.13 The goodness measures of end-to-end delay with ANN
versus weighted modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Introduction
Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) have got a great deal of attention in recent time
because of their ease of deployment. They are dynamically reconfigurable network
and does not require any fixed infrastructure to set up. Each MANET node acts
as a transmitter, receiver and forwarder of packets. These networks are most suited
network where infrastructure is either not available such as disastrous scenario where
infrastructure is destroyed. They are also of immense use in scenario where the cannot
be trusted such as in a confidential operation. The other notable usage of MANET
is distributed collaborative computing, rare animal tracking, undersea operation,
unmanned areal vehicles, vehicular networks, etc.
1.1.1 Differences Between Cellular and Ad Hoc
Cellular networks are the networks which are based on the fixed infrastructure. In cel-
lular network, the communication happens with the single-hop wireless link. These
networks are basically designed for voice traffic in which guaranteed bandwidth is
provided. This is based on the centralized routing where the message travels using
circuit switching. Cellular network has the seamless connectivity; hence, there are
low call drops during the handoffs. The main disadvantage of the cellular networks
is it consume more time in deployment and also require high cost.
Ad hoc network is infrastructure-less networks in which the nodes communicate
in multihop fashion using the wireless link. In ad hoc network, the distributed routing
concept is implemented. Packet switching is preferred mode of communication com-
pared to circuit switching which is preferred in cellular network. The transmission
nodes are mobile and have small range, results in frequent link failures. The main
advantage of the ad hoc network over the cellular network is it requires less time and
less cost to deploy.
© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018 1

J. P. Singh et al., Ad Hoc Networks,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8770-7_1
2 1 Introduction
1.1.2 Applications of Ad Hoc Wireless Networks
Ad hoc network has certain unique features such as self-organizing capabilities, fault
tolerance and easy to deploy without any existing infrastructure. Some of the key
applications of MANET are:
Collaborative Work
MANET can be utilized on the move by the colleague as they can exchange their
ideas by forming an ad hoc network on the move.
Crisis-management Applications
MANET is indispensable where the infrastructure has been destroyed as a result of
natural disasters such as Tsunamis, hurricanes. A temporary infrastructure can be
set up in hours using MANET where it could take months for cellular or wire-line
communications.
Personal Area Networking
The wearable devices such as health gadgets, mobile phones, headphones form a
personal area network (PAN). PAN is a short-range localized network associated
with an entity. These devices usually communicate using ad hoc network.
1.1.3 Technical Challenges in MANET
Two important keywords for mobile ad hoc networking happen to be radio com-
munication and mobility. On the one hand, because the nodes have a limited radio
range, nodes can communicate using the radio communication medium if they are
physically close to each other (in that case, one says that the nodes are in range).
This alone is not enough, however. Wireless communication exhibits a variety of
issues which lead to some situations where the communication between two nodes
in range fails, or two nodes in range do not detect each other. On the other hand, node
mobility heavily impacts the connectivity of the network. The way the nodes move
(note that not necessarily all of them move, though) results in a variety of topologies
and dynamic properties of the network. For instance, in a network in which the nodes
run in a random direction, no connection can be assumed durable. But in a network in
which the nodes run in groups, and so the creation of long-lived clusters may occur.
These characteristics contribute to a position in which the current execution of the
common network operations (broadcast, unicast, routing etc.) is not applicable.
A significant characteristic of ad hoc networks is that rapid changes in connec-
tivity and link characteristics are caused due to node mobility and power control
methodologies. Arbitrary and random movement of nodes results in frequent topol-
ogy changes and multiple link failures. This dynamic environment challenges the
delivery of data and forces to find better models for network parameters specially
1.1 Introduction 3
which are shifting with time. These models may be used for tracking changes in
a network environment and subsequently determine the future environment of the
network. If we are able to anticipate the changes in the network environment, we
will be capable to carry out several schemes to cope with different spots such as
frequently changing topology, more static routes, high delay routes. For illustration,
the prediction of changes in connectivity can help us to choose more stable routes. If
the prediction of the future neighbours of a client with good accuracy can be imposed
with the routing algorithm, the router will estimate the mobile nodes’ available time
on the route and choose better paths with longer route expiration time.
In this book, we take up the challenge of identifying the network parameters
dependent on time and possess a large impact on MANET working. The parameters
identified are neighbour count, link load, path length, cluster count and delay. The
number of neighbours of a node is important data for several network services such as
network connectivity, routing, congestion control, topology construction, protection.
Neighbour counts of a node are parameter changing continuously due to change in
physical locations of mobile clients. So this is a potential candidate to put research
effort on and model in order to improve network functionality.
The link load is another parameter which exhibits high dynamism with time. It is an
indication of congestion across a link. This parameter may be used for supplementing
Media Access Control (MAC) protocols, so that they can take care of congestion on
the link.
The path length between a source–destination pair which is the total number of
links between the said source–destination pair is another parameter worth of engaging
needs high attention. The mobile nodes are often configured to work on a smaller
transmission range due to limited battery power and better throughput. So, most of
time, the length of path is more than one. The path length varies constantly with a
change in the neighbourhood of either source, destination or any intermediate node
on the path. For weighted clustering algorithms, predicting weight can be very useful.
A good deal of savings can be made in weight-based clustering scheme if a node can
calculate the weights of another client. So, we consider the weights of the nodes in
weighted clustering technique as our next parameter to obtain a theoretical account
for it.
The end-to-end delay happens to be another such parameter which needs more
attention to make MANET applicable to various real-time applications such as mul-
timedia communication. Because of multihop nature and continuous movement of
nodes, end-to-end delay in MANET is higher, compared to other infra-structured
network.
We have put above parameters in the framework of time series because all the
said parameters have temporal implication. They shift with time regularly. Although,
time series has been enforced in some sphere of computer networks like modelling
of Internet traffic, delay, but it has not been taken up for modelling and predicting
the said parameters. The said parameters, when modelled using time series frame-
work, exhibit a right fit with autoregressive AR(p) model of order p. The order p is
determined for each fitted model and found lying between one and three. These fitted
models have been used for forecasting the future values of the said parameters and
found to be in full accordance with the actual values validated by statistical test.
4 1 Introduction
1.2 Motivation
As discussed in previous section, the time-dependent parameters of MANET need

serious attention to improve MANET functionality. The motivation of the present
work comes from the following observations:
• Most of the early research work was done on an individual parameter with specific
assumptions about MANET environment such as mobility patterns, link condition,
routing protocols. For a single parameter, there exist several different models
depending on the environment of the MANET like mobility, routing.
• There is no reporting of any unified model for any parameters discussed so far in
researches.
• There is a need of unified model which can be applied to the said parameters
irrespective of their environment.
This was the main motivating factor to take up this work for the present scope
and find out a unified model for various network parameters which changes with
time, mobility patterns, routing algorithm. The model should be proficient enough
to accommodate for different parameters and forecast their future values very near
to the real one.
1.3 Aims and Objectives
The primary objective of this book is to bring various network parameters such as
neighbour count, link, load, route length, cluster count, delay, inference, mobility in
different environmental conditions under a model framework. In the present scope,
so far we have been able to model neighbour count, link load, path length, cluster
count and delay. The aim has been broken down into number of objectives.
1. Determine suitable models using time series concepts for
• Neighbour Counts
• Link Load
• Path Length
• Cluster Count
2. Exploiting the models to predict future values of those parameters for network
services.
3. Analyse the parameters affecting end-to-end delay and determine a suitable math-
ematical model using those parameters and previous delay.
In order to achieve the objectives of this work, a detailed analysis and experimental
results are evaluated for different parameters.
1.4 Contributions 5
1.4 Contributions
We have modelled the variation of number of neighbours, the link load, path length
and delay of the network over time based on the concepts of time series modelling.
The neighbour counts NCt of the node N at time t are a function of the neighbour
counts NCt−1 , NCt−2 and so on over previous instances. This is because, that due
to the change in physical locations over time, some existing nodes might have left,
whereas new nodes might have come into the transmission range of node Ni . The
relationship is represented in Eq. 1.1.
NCt = f (NCt−1 , NCt−2 , . . . , NCt−p ) : 1 ≤ p < ∞. (1.1)
We need to determine the function f and the order of the function p. From our
experimental data, we found that the function f to be an autoregressive process
AR(p) of order p given in Eq. 1.2.
NCt = φ0 + φ1 NCt−1 + φ2 NCt−2 + · · · + φp NCt−p + at (1.2)
where 1 ≤ p < ∞ is a non-negative integer, at s are the samples of white noise

with mean zero and variance σ 2 , and φi s are the time-invariant coefficients. This
model suggests that the past p values pt−i , for i = 1, . . . , p, are correlated. We also
determined the order of the AR(p) using partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). We found that in most cases the order p of the
AR(p) process lies between one and three. A detail analysis of neighbour count is
presented in Chap. 4.
ij
The link load LLt between node Ni and Nj at time t depends on a number of
neighbours, traffic pattern, mobility patterns etc. The number of neighbours is a
time-dependent parameter as discussed earlier. The traffic patterns of a node are not
constant but vary with time. The nodes change location regularly making movement
ij
pattern time dependent. Since the factors on which link load LLt between node Ni
ij
and Nj at time t depends are time dependent, LLt also happens to be time dependent.
The relationship can be represented by Eq. 1.3
ij ij ij ij
LLt = f (LLt−1 + LLt−2 + · · · + LLt−p ) : 1 ≤ p < ∞ (1.3)
From our experimental data, we found that the function f can be approximated by
an autoregressive process AR(p) with suitable order p as given below in Eq. 1.4.
ij ij ij ij
LLt = φ0 + φ1 LLt−1 + φ2 LLt−2 + · · · + φp LLt−p + at (1.4)
where 1 ≤ p < ∞ is a non-negative integer. When evaluated the order p of the

AR(p), we found that it is assuming value between one and two in most cases. A
comprehensive analysis is provided in Chap. 5.
The path length between a source–destination pair depends on the link load,
routing algorithm, mobility patterns. The link load is dependent on time. The mobile
6 1 Introduction
nodes change locations with time making mobility pattern time dependent. Based
on the node location, congestion and some other factors, a routing algorithm finds a
suitable path for a packet to traverse from source to destination. All these parameters
ij
indicate that path length is also time-dependent parameter. Hence, path length Pt
between two nodes Ni and Nj at time t can be viewed as given in Eq. 1.5.
ij ij ij ij
Pt = f (Pt−1 + 2Pt−2 + · · · + Pt−p ) : 1 ≤ p < ∞ (1.5)
The experimental results indicate that the function f can be approximated by AR(p)
ij
process for a suitable choice of p. The path length Pt of a path between node Ni and
Nj at time t is represented by the following Eq. 1.6
ij ij ij ij
Pt = φ0 + φ1 Pt−1 + φ2 Pt−2 + · · · + φp Pt−p + at (1.6)
where 1 ≤ p < ∞ is a non-negative integer. at s are the samples of white noise with
mean zero and variance σ 2 , and φi s are the time-invariant coefficients. The order p
of the underlying AR(p) process for path length data is also found to lie between one
and three. The details are available in Chap. 6.
We explore the impact of different mobility patterns on the weight-based clustering
algorithms in [85]. We have also tried to find out the effect of average speed of the
nodes on clustering the network under different mobility patterns. The weights of
mobile nodes are represented as a time series and modelled by autoregressive model
AR(p) of order p. The order p of the model is found to lie between 1 and 3. The
fitted model is then used to make predictions about the node weights. The details on
clustering is presented in Chap. 7.
The fitted AR(p) models for various network parameters like neighbour count,
link load, path length, cluster weight are used to predict the future values of the
above respective variables. The predicted values are found to be close enough to the
real values as indicated by a statistical χ 2 test.
We modelled the end-to-end packet delay of an ad hoc network by Multilayer Per-
ceptron, Generalized Regression Neural network (GRNN) and Radial Basis Function
Network (RBFN) for different routing protocols and mobility patterns. The input to
the neural models is the path length because we found through extensive experi-
ments that path length is highly correlated to end-to-end delay. The GRNN model is
yielding good results across all routing protocols, whereas RBF performs well under
AODV routing. The details are available in Chap. 8.
To further raise the anticipated effects of end-to-end delay, we build relationship
among end-to-end delay, path length and previous delay. A regression equation is
established between path length and end-to-end delay. The end-to-end delay is also
represented as a fuzzy time series. The current end-to-end delay is then obtained
by combining delay predicted by path length regression equation and fuzzy time
series. The optimal ratio of combining these two predicted delay is also calculated.
Based on various performance evaluation criteria, we found that by combining the
predicted values of delay using path length regression and fuzzy time series ensures
satisfactory packet delay prediction in ad hoc network. The details are available in
Chap. 9.
1.5 Book Structure 7
1.5 Book Structure
The book is structured as follows:
Chapter 1 is an introduction to the book, which identifies the aims and objectives,
summarizes the main contribution and the research challenges. It likewise
includes the publications which resulted throughout the course of this
work.
Chapter 2 introduces time series analysis in general and autoregressive analysis in
particular. A review of the relevant current state-of-the-art research has
been provided.
Chapter 3 introduces the mobile ad hoc network followed by a brief description of
three popular routing protocols. Some of the popular mobility models are
also discussed in this chapter. The need and purpose of clustering structure
in MANET is also presented. The chapter ends with a discussion on the
works related to MANET parameter modelling.
Chapter 4 illustrates the importance of neighbour count in mobile ad hoc network.
The modelling technique of neighbour count in ad hoc network for dif-
ferent routing algorithms and mobility models is also introduced in this
chapter. A prediction technique using the fitted model is proposed.
Chapter 5 starts with a discussion on the importance of link duration in mobile ad
hoc network. It is followed by the modelling technique of link duration in
respect of different routing algorithm and mobility models. A prediction
technique using the fitted model is also offered.
Chapter 6 starts with the introduction of path length and justify why is it needed in ad
hoc network to study and model path length. It also contains the modelling
technique of path length in ad hoc network corresponding to different
routing algorithms and mobility models. The chapter is concluded by
suggesting a prediction technique using the fitted model.
Chapter 7 introduces the clustering in ad hoc network followed by the discussion of
weighted clustering algorithms and their weight calculation techniques. It
also contains the modelling techniques of weighted clustering for different
mobility models. A prediction technique using the fitted model is also
given.
Chapter 8 contains the need and importance of delay modelling in ad hoc network.
Then a delay prediction technique using artificial neural network is elab-
orated in this chapter, followed by some results of the suggested model.
This chapter outlines the motivation of choosing the fuzzy time series
for delay prediction followed by a delay prediction technique using fuzzy
time series. The detailed results of the model are also presented in the
chapter.
Chapter 9 summarizes the work, discusses the results and indicates future work.
Chapter 2
Time Series Analysis
Objectives of the chapter

• To introduce time series analysis
• Autoregressive processes
• Application of time series in ad hoc networks
2.1 Introduction to Time Series
A ordered sequence of events or observations having a time component is called as a

time series. Some good examples of time series are daily opening and closing stock
prices, daily humidity, temperature, pressure, annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
of a country and so on.
2.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis
The analysis of the data with respect to time provides a better insight of the data
which can help in the prediction of future values of the data under consideration.
The data values which occur at regular interval may look random, but they often
exhibit certain trend. Time series analysis helps to capture that hidden trend in the
data. Most of the time data also exhibit cyclic behaviour when analysed using a time
series method.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8770-7_2
10 2 Time Series Analysis
2.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling
First of all, plot the time series and examine the main features of the graph to check
whether there is any
1. trend,
2. seasonal component,
3. apparent sharp changes in behaviour,
4. outlying observations.
If there is any trend and seasonal component in the series, then remove that by
applying a preliminary transformation to the data to get stationary series. There
are several ways in which trend and seasonality can be removed, some involving
estimating the components and subtracting them from the data, and others depending
on differencing the data. Whichever method is used, the aim is to produce a stationary
series, whose values we shall refer to as residuals.
Choose a model to fit the residuals, making use of various sample statistics includ-
ing the sample autocorrelation function. Forecasting will be achieved by forecasting
the residuals and then inverting the transformations described above to arrive at
forecasts of the original series X t .
An extremely useful alternative approach to express the series in terms of its
Fourier components, which are sinusoidal waves of different frequencies. This
approach is especially important in engineering applications such as signal pro-
cessing and structural design.
2.3.1 Autoregressive Process
The autoregressive process of order p denoted as A R( p) can be defined as Eq. 2.1
rt = φ0 + φ1rt−1 + φ2 rt−2 + · · · + φ p rt− p + at (2.1)
where p is a non-negative integer and φi ∈ are parameters of the A R( p), 0 ≤

i ≤ p model. at is a white noise sequence with mean zero and variance σ 2 and is
independent of ri ∀i, t − 1 ≤ i ≤ t − p. This model suggests that the past p values
rt−i : (i = 1, . . . , p) jointly determine the conditional expectation of the past data.
The series we used through our experiment is stationary since the following two
conditions hold [35]:
1. E(rt ) = μ which is a constant and independent of t
2. Cov(rt , rt− j ) = γ j only depends on lag j, and not on time t.
Since the series is stationary, the mean and the variance of this series are governed
by the given Eq. 2.2
φ0
E(rt ) = (2.2)
1 − φ1 − φ2 − · · · − φ p
2.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling 11
provided that the denominator is not zero.
The autocovariance of the series of Eq. 2.1 is given by Eq. 2.3 as follows:

φ1 γ j−1 + φ2 γ j−2 + · · · + φ p γ j− p : j = 1, 2, . . . p
γj = (2.3)
φ1 γ 1 + φ2 γ 2 + · · · + φ p γ p : j =0
The associated polynomial equation of the A R( p) model, called characteristic equa-

tion, is given by Eq. 2.4
x p − φ1 x p−1 − φ2 x p−2 − · · · − φ p = 0 (2.4)
Another condition of stationarity is that if all the characteristic roots of Eq. 2.4 are less
than unity in modulus, then the series rt is stationary [35]. The characteristic equation
indicates that the plot of the autocorrelation, known as autocorrelation function,
(ACF) of A R( p) model shows a mixture of damping sine and cosine patterns and
exponential decays depending on the nature of its characteristic roots. This is in strong
conformity with our experimental data. One major hurdle in representing data using
A R( p) model is finding the appropriate value of p and solving the AR coefficients.
We have used the Yule-Walker equations [13] to determine the AR coefficient for
the arbitrary p. The Yule-Walker equation in matrix form is given as
⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤
r1 1 x1 · · · x N −1 a1
⎢ r2 ⎥ ⎢ x N −1 1 · · · x N −2 ⎥ ⎢ a2 ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ r3 ⎥ ⎢ x N −2 x N −1 · · · x N −3 ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥=⎢ ⎥ × ⎢ a3 ⎥ (2.5)
⎢ .. ⎥ ⎢ .. .. .. ⎥ ⎢ .. ⎥
⎣ . ⎦ ⎣ . . . ⎦ ⎣ . ⎦
rN x N −1 x N −2 · · · 1 aN
where xd represents the autocorrelation coefficient at lag d. A lag of d means the

value of the series d at d time unit back. We can find the xd values by the following
method. Multiplying both sides of the Eq. 2.1 by rt−1 gives
p
rt rt−1 = (φ j rt rt− j+1 ) + rt−1 at + rt−1 φ0 (2.6)
t=1
where j and t are terms and time indices, respectively. Considering expectations on
both sides
p
E[rt rt−1 ] = (φ j E[rt rt− j+1 ]) + E[rt−1 at ] + E[rt−1 ]φ0 (2.7)
t=1
where the φ j values are kept outside the purview of the expectation because they
are parameters rather than random variables. It is to be noted that E[rt−1 at ] = 0 and
E[rt−1 ]φ0 = 0 because the random perturbation of the current time is statistically
uncorrelated with the previous values of the process. Therefore, we get
12 2 Time Series Analysis
p
E[rt rt−1 ] = (φ j E[rt rt− j+1 ]) (2.8)
t=1
Next, dividing by (N − 1) throughout and using the evenness of the autocovariance,

i.e. c1 =c−1 , we get
p
c1 = φ j c j−1 (2.9)
t=1
Finally, dividing throughout by c0 , we get

p
x1 = φ j r j−1 (2.10)
t=1
which gives x1 in terms of 1, x1 , . . . , x N −1 . Repeating the same process, we get x2

in terms of x1 , x2 , x3 . . . , x N −2 and so on. Finally, writing all this together gives the
Yule-Walker equation given in Eq. 2.5 which can be solved to get the coefficients of
A R( p) model. We can also get the partial autocorrelation function using the Yule-
Walker equation. To find the order p of the A R( p) model, we have used the partial
autocorrelation function (PACF). Finally, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) [13]
is used to confirm the choice of p suggested by partial autocorrelation function.
The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is a way of selecting a model from
among a set of models. The chosen model is one that minimize the Kullback–Leibler
distance metric between the models and the truth. AIC not only rewards goodness of
fit, but also imposes a penalty that is an increasing function in respect of the number of
estimable parameters. This penalty discourages over-fitting. To apply AIC in practice,
we start with a set of candidate models, and then find the models corresponding to
AIC values. We identify the model with the minimum AIC value. Models having
their AIC values in the range of 1 and 2 of the minimum have substantial support
and should be considered in making inferences. This is how we fix order p of our
model. The least square method finds the best estimate of unknown parameters, given
a specific model. Here, the question is different. Here our problem is about fixing the
most suitable model based on available data. Least square regression does not serve
the purpose as that offered by AIC.
2.4 Time Series Analysis and MANET
Basu et al. [6] models the Internet traffic using the autoregressive moving aver-
age (ARMA) of order p and q. Using this model, they predict the traffic, which
is generated by a TCP source using FDDI protocol. They also develop a genera-
tor of synthetic traffic that is useful for simulation studies of Internet traffic and in
resource management algorithms. You and Chandra [102] use statistical means to
2.4 Time Series Analysis and MANET 13
show that the aggregate TCP packet arrival process exhibits non-stationary and non-
linear features. They generate stationary traffic by filtering a subset of the processes
exhibiting non-stationary features of the aggregate process. Such a filtered traffic
process is modelled using nonlinear threshold autoregressive processes. This traffic
model is found to be in a good agreement with the real traffic assuming the packet loss
statistics. This model can be used in the design of traffic shapers providing a simple
and accurate approach for simulating Internet data traffic patterns. Liu et al. [57]
proposes an energy-efficient technique for information collection in Wireless Sensor
Network (WSN). They hold back the sensor nodes from transmitting redundant data.
The data are redundant if it can be predicted by the sink node. For prediction, they
utilize Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model [13] of order
( p, d, q) due to its outstanding model fit and small computational cost. The samples
from a specific sensor node arriving at the sink node are treated as time series, and
the sink maintains the time series for each sensor node. The time series is then used
for predictions by sink nodes for each of the sensor nodes. If the difference between
the actual data and the predicted data is within a pre-defined threshold, then this
data are not sent from the sensor node, and thus providing energy savings. Herbert
et al. [39] extend the idea of Liu to cluster-based WSN. The LEACH [38] protocol
is extended to provide verification at the cluster head. Each member node transmits
the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) parameters of its cluster
head, which verifies the accuracy of the model by generating time series with each
set of parameters, and then calculates the mean squared error of the predicted data.
If the mean squared error is above a fixed tolerance value, the cluster head requests
all member nodes to recalculate their respective parameters repeatedly until all the
models are within a tolerance. Borgne et al. [12] use a set of time series models to
predict the sensor reading at regular intervals of time by the sink node. The sink node
transmits this data to every sensor. If sensor nodes find that their readings are differ-
ent from the sink node’s predictions by a value greater than a given threshold, then
the sensors send their readings to the sink. This approach has shown great savings
in the communication cost of the sensor networks.
Chapter 3
Preliminaries
Objectives of the chapter

• To introduce mobile ad hoc network
• Routing protocols used in a mobile ad hoc network
• Mobility modelling in a mobile ad hoc network
• Clustering in a mobile ad hoc network
• Works related to the modelling of the ad hoc network perimeter
3.1 Introduction to Mobile Ad Hoc Networks
A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) [79] is an autonomous system of mobile routers

as well as hosts connected by wireless links which form an arbitrary graph when taken
together. The mobile nodes roam around in a given area and organize themselves to
form a network via wireless links. The network’s topology changes regularity due
to node movement. Such kind of network may operate in a stand-alone fashion or
may be connected to the larger network such as the Internet. Ad hoc networks are
characteristically different because they do not require any prior fixed infrastructure.
Instead, the network nodes relay each other’s packet towards their final destinations
via several hosts using their self-created topology. An example of a typical MANET
topology is shown in Fig. 3.1.
MANET requires very little efforts to deploy, making it very attractive for short-
term use like rescue work, conference [79]. These networks are indispensable for
emergency services such as disaster recovery where wireless access to a wired back-
bone is either ineffective or unavailable. Each node in the network may act as a

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He walked to the blackboard, and wrote in a large hand: "Lulookuk
outut! Tuteacuchuherur isus cucomuminungug!"
"Whatever does that mean?" asked Mr. Scoville, in some
bewilderment.
"It means," replied Henry, returning to his place in front of the
microphone: "'Look out! Teacher is coming!'"
The audience rocked with laughter. Henry's poise was still serene,
and remained so until another sound reached his ears, rising above
the diminishing laughter. He glanced at his watch. Ten o'clock—to
the minute. Quickly he advanced to the edge of the stage, and raised
his hand, commanding silence. The audience was instantly stilled.
Then Henry spoke. "Everybody quiet, now! Mars is on the air!"
XII
The silence in the auditorium was broken by the clicking of a
telegraph instrument, which acted as a monitor on the receiving
desk. The mechanical equipment on the stage was similar to that
found in the radio department of any large New York newspaper
office, with two typewriter desks, one fitted for the receiving and
transcribing of code messages, the other equipped for their
transmission.
The Martian signals were coming in by direct wire control, from the
receiving station Henry had erected for his interstellar experiments,
at great expense, at Orient Point, Long Island, about seventy miles
from the city. The replies from the earth, that were to follow, would go
by wire control from the stage to his transmitting station, situated at
Longhampton. His two private stations were twenty-five miles apart,
a distance necessary to prevent interference.
The moment Mars was reported on the air by the engineers at the
Long Island receiving station, Henry's mind, likewise Olinski's,
suddenly developed, as it were, enormous dynamic activity, and the
audience seemed to become so remote to them as to be non-
existent.
Henry strode back quickly to the microphone, and said: "Stand by all
stations! Stand by, Mars! We can hear Mars calling! Lost their way?
Hello, Mars! Earth—New York—calling!"
Olinski was an expert wireless operator and typist. His fingers flew
over the keyboard as he transcribed the Martian code characters
that were being impressed by the ink recorder on narrow tape,
resembling ticker tape. Operated by a pull-motor, this tape ran in a
brass-groove attached to the front of the typewriter, under the
operator's eyes.
On the completion of each sentence, Olinski would call: "All right!"
and Henry would rip off a short length of paper containing the
sentence, and begin the second transcription, into understandable
English—the Martian classical style. He wrote them in chalk, on the
blackboard, while Olinski's laboratory assistant read them off into the
microphone.
The blackboard was just about half filled when the short waves
began to fade, and nothing further was heard except a weird
chattering in a receiving apparatus at the back of the stage. The
message, so far received, decoded and transcribed on the
blackboard, ran as follows:
"Salutations to the men of the Blue Sphere, with one
moon, from the white men, your brothers in space,
inhabitants of the Red Sphere, with two moons! Electric
waves, radiant energy of the gods, at last bridges the
fearsome gulf that yawns between us. No longer shall we
be as strangers in our great universe, but united in bonds
of sympathy and understanding. Your wireless messages
fill the air; they have taught us many strange and
wonderful things. Yet we thirst for more knowledge of thee,
and the planet on which thou dwellest. The Red Sphere is
matter in old age, slowly drying up. We are facing
extinction. Long has been the struggle of the minority, the
white race, against the majority, the ape-men of the
jungles, now warring to become our masters...."
From this point on, a considerable portion of the message could not
get through, apparently due to some ethereal disturbance; a
turbulence, somewhere off in space, which Olinski labelled as "very
spotty."
Suddenly, the engineers' efforts to re-contact Mars were successful.
Fading and fluttering, the dots and dashes of the code began once
again to register on the receiving machine. Transcribed by Henry on
the blackboard, although piece-meal, the message was fairly
intelligible, and really contained more startling information than the
first part. It read thus:
"If thou desireth greater knowledge of our planet and
people, look for our ship in the sky. Search carefully, on
your mountain-tops and in the valleys. Fourteen suns
have passed since the ship, launched in the darkness of
an equatorial solar eclipse, was caught up in a cloud of
cosmic bodies streaming over our planet. The key of
knowledge thou wilt find in this ship ... scroll written by
young priest-astronomer, darling of the gods, who first
deciphered code of your strange language.... Our
astronomers study your planet diligently through holes in
your clouds.... They see great bluish masses ... can this
be water?..."
The second part of the message quickly fading out, Henry's
presence of mind did not forsake him in this emergency.
Immediately, he began to dictate a reply to the Martian message,
which Olinski quickly coded and transmitted, with breathless interest
on the part of the audience.
In this Mars-bound reply, Henry laid strong emphasis on the "ship,"
mentioned by the Martians in their message, concluding as follows:
"Explain more fully about the ship in the sky. We have no
knowledge of this. Meteors by the thousands have been
spraying the Blue Sphere for many days. This stream of
meteors may be the same swarm that your own planet
encountered, fourteen suns ago. Answer immediately."
But no answer came.
Highly agitated, and believing himself to be on the brink of a still
greater discovery, Henry rushed again to the microphone, and
immediately broadcast a world-wide appeal for assistance in finding
the Martian "ship," which he described as a rocket. Then, as a
cheerful glow of anticipated success diffused itself all over him, he
offered a reward of $25,000 to any trooper, or constable, from Tokyo
to Timbuctoo, or to any one, in any part of the world, who found the
"ship."
"This so-called ship," he explained to his audience, visible and
invisible, "is most likely a metal rocket, which the Martians have
catapulted into the sky during a solar eclipse and meteoric display.
Their two tiny moons are so close to the surface of Mars, and their
speeds are so great, that along the Martian equator there are three
or four total solar eclipses every day.
"Apparently, they have taken advantage of one of these eclipses, in
their astronomical calculations, in directing the rocket earthward. It
may have been driven, by some mighty engine, beyond the planet's
weak pull of gravity, into this very same cloud of cosmic bodies that
are at present showering the earth. The 'fourteen suns,' mentioned in
their radio message, really mean fourteen days. Their day is but a
half hour longer than our own. Making all allowances, it would take a
rocket, catapulted from Mars, about two weeks to travel through
space, and reach the earth."
By this time, every one in the auditorium was on the edge of their
seats, actually quivering with excitement. It was like a mad-house
when the meeting was finally adjourned. People stood on their seats,
waving hats and handkerchiefs, and cheering Henry and Olinski.
That night stands out in my mind as one of gradually accumulating
excitement. The demonstration ending in the wildest sort of clamor,
and a general rush for the stage, to congratulate my brother and his
co-worker, I became separated from my party. Jane disappeared
from my view as completely as though she had dropped through a
trap-door in the floor.
Pat, somehow, lost sight of Prince Matani in the crush. I don't think
she minded much, or she may have lost him intentionally. I spent ten
excited and violent minutes looking for her and Jane. When I finally
reached the lobby, there I found Pat talking to McGinity, as calmly as
you please, and she looked entirely happy. After a quick and agitated
good-night, he left her in my care, and dashed off to the Daily
Recorder office, to write what he termed a "new lead" for the second
edition. During the demonstration, he had despatched his copy, page
by page, by messenger boy, from the press table.
Pat and I had to literally fight our way through the milling thousands,
outside the NRC Building, to reach our car, in a nearby parking
space. We found Jane in the car. She acted rather peevish, and
steadily persisted in saying that it was my fault that we had become
separated. There we waited a full hour for Henry. At last, I left the car
to look for him.
Suddenly, I was caught in a crowd that had broken through the
police lines. A stout man collided with me, and knocked me down;
then some one ran over me as I lay on the pavement. I believe the
crowd would have trampled me to death then and there if a
policeman had not rescued me. Then Olinski came rushing up to me.
I must have presented a queer sight to him, my hat at a strange
angle and my clothes mussed up.
"Where's Henry?" I gasped.
"In a telephone booth, in the lobby, hiding from the crowd," Olinski
replied, breathlessly. "The crowd insists on carrying us both around
on its shoulders, like a hero aviator, or a victorious football player.
I've just escaped by the merest chance. Better get back to your car,
and wait."
He dashed off, and I returned to the car. Another half hour, and still
no sign of Henry. I was beginning to be quite alarmed when he
appeared, at last, accompanied by a young man.
"Bob!" exclaimed Pat, when she saw them coming.
Sure enough, it was McGinity. Henry had waited until he had cleaned
up on his story, and was now taking him to our country place to
spend the night. It was plain to see Henry had formed a sort of
attachment for the young reporter. As it turned out, McGinity was to
be a valuable ally the next day.
"I'm up to the neck in this thing now," Henry explained, as he joined
us in the car, "and no one can render me more valuable assistance
than Mr. McGinity. I've asked him to help me in making up a
statement for the press, which I've promised to hand out, first thing in
the morning."
McGinity insisted on riding in the front seat with the chauffeur. One
look at Pat convinced me that she was very pleased to have him with
us, even if he rode astride the radiator hood, which was hardly
possible, with the chauffeur's usual rocket-like speed as we rushed
through the dark countryside.
It was long past midnight when we rolled through the lodge-gate at
our Sands Cliff estate. During the drive from the city, many meteors
had flashed across the sky. We had just stepped up to our front door
when there was a sudden flash of prismatic colors almost directly
over our heads, a soft whirring noise, like a plane makes in the dead
of night, followed by a heavy thud, indicating that perhaps some
heavy object had struck the ground. Then everything became dark
and quiet again.
The incident had an electrical effect on Henry. "That was a meteorite,
as sure as shot!" he exclaimed. "Looks like it fell somewhere along
the water-front. What about going down, and having a look round?"
"Let's go," said McGinity, eagerly.
It took some argument on the part of Jane and myself to keep them
from making the search, but at last we managed it. Half an hour
later, we were all in our beds. I was so dead tired, I felt that I would
never wake up once I got to sleep.
It was bright daylight, seven o'clock in the morning, when I was
wakened by Niki knocking loudly at my bedroom door.
XIII
Niki was an early bird; he always took a walk round the castle
grounds long before the rest of the household was up. His walk that
morning had taken him along the water-front. On the beach, about a
mile from our private dock, he had discovered a strange-looking
object, something that resembled a huge sky-rocket, as he described
it to me afterwards. On close inspection, he thought he heard a
tapping sound inside the metal tube, as though some one was
imprisoned there. This had alarmed him greatly, and he had taken it
on the run back to the castle.
I was only partly awake when I admitted him to my room after his
violent knocking at my door. His usual Oriental calm had
disappeared entirely, and I gazed at him wonderingly as he stood,
gesturing and talking wildly, as though he had lost his senses. I kept
shaking my head dubiously.
"But Meester Livingston!" he cried. "I am telling you the truth. I am
telling you."
"You're still dreaming, Niki," I said; "you haven't waked up yet. You'll
drag me down to the beach, and what will we find there? Nothing."
"But I've seen it, touched it with my hands, Meester Livingston," he
went on excitedly. "There is something inside of it—alive."
"Inside of what?" I asked, suppressing a yawn.
"Inside the big fire-cracker," he replied. "It is big enough to put an
elephant inside—maybe not so big—" he stretched both arms full
length; "maybe, this long. Maybe, it is that ship from the stars,
Meester Henry was talking about on the radio last night. If it is,
maybe, I will get the $25,000 reward for finding it."
"Ship? A rocket?" Then I blew up. "Why, you little Filipino jackass,
why didn't you tell me so before?"
"I have been telling you," he replied, shaking his head, as if in pity for
my lack of comprehension.
I sent him off in haste to waken McGinity. By the time I was half-
dressed, McGinity joined me, fully dressed. In less than ten minutes,
we dashed out of the castle, and made a break for the beach. When
Niki had pointed out the strange object to us, lying on the sand, I
sent him back to rouse Henry.
Before we reached the queer-looking thing, I had made up my mind
that whatever it was, it might be mysterious but nothing more. Not by
the wildest stretch of the imagination could I see a projectile from
another planet landing on this earth, even if it had wings. But when
we got up to it, and I heard a sound inside, as Niki had first reported,
as though some one was tapping against the metal, like men trapped
in a submarine, signaling to their rescuers, and logical connection
was established in my mind between the Martian radio message and
the landing of this strange rocket from the sky, the only real brain-
storm I ever had in my life was right there.
I judged the object to be about ten feet in length, and about ten feet
in circumference at its widest part. The outer shell looked like
copper. It had a cone-shaped nose, which seemed to have been
embedded deep in the sand when it fell from space, but the weight of
the body had tipped it over, so that it now rested in a semi-horizontal
position. I noted at once that its metal surface was pitted, and had a
fused crust, like the varnish-like coating of a meteorite, no doubt due
to the action of the heat generated by its rapid passage through the
earth's atmosphere.
What McGinity's thoughts were, during our hurried inspection, I did
not know. He appeared to have been awed into silence. Presently,
he said, in a very serious tone:
"This is the ship, or rocket, from Mars, all right. Nothing was ever
manufactured on this earth that looks anything like it. As for that
tapping sound—" he stopped, and leaned over, with his ear pressed
against the projectile. "Something is alive in there, sure as faith. We
must act quickly, or it'll be suffocated." He made a rapid examination
of the rocket's exterior. "I don't see any way of opening the darned
thing. Do you?"
I joined him in his inspection. "It seems to be hermetically sealed," I
said. "Looks like a Chinese puzzle to me."
Hearing voices approaching, I wheeled round, to see Henry coming
on the run—bareheaded, and wearing only his trousers and shirt and
bedroom slippers. Niki was running some steps ahead of him. He
was almost breathless when he came up to us. He gave the rocket
one searching glance, and then he went plain crazy. Here it was, the
"ship" from Mars, with all its potentialities.
"My God!" was all he said.
I don't suppose I'll ever remember exactly what happened after
Henry's arrival on the scene. Revelations, weird and foreboding,
crowded the ensuing half hour so quickly, one upon the other, I
became dazed and dizzy. I know we all worked heroically, and
swiftly, to free the living thing inside the rocket. We were assisted in
the operation by a dozen, strong-armed men-servants. Already, we
had quite a gallery of spectators; all of the servants practically on the
estate, but no one from outside. Jane and Pat stood on a sod
embankment, fringed with willows, some yards away; even at this
distance, I could discern that Pat was wildly excited but was being
held in check by Jane.
Henry was handy with tools, but McGinity proved himself more
capable when it came to the actual opening of the rocket. Henry,
however, was privileged to be the first one to look inside. He gasped,
and stepped back like one stunned. Then McGinity took a look.
"Great Scott!" he exclaimed.
"What is it?" I asked, as I stepped forward, tremulous and excited, to
take my turn.
"That's what it is," he replied, cryptically. "Looks like Barnum's 'What
Is It?'"
To my dying day, I shall never forget the strange and surprising sight
that greeted my eyes as I peered through the opening. I could only
describe the huge, revolting-looking creature inside the rocket, at
first glance, as a man-ape.
Whatever it was, Henry gave orders for its quick release. "This
creature," he said, as we prepared to carry out his orders, "greatly
resembles the hairy, primitive man of Mars, inhabiting the jungles of
the planet, described in the Martian radio message last night. It was
probably captured and placed inside the rocket while in a restive
state, like a protoplasm, so that life could be retained during the long
and perilous flight through space. It seems, at present, to be in a
semi-conscious state. Probably revived to some extent by the effect
of the earth's atmosphere."
He stopped, and then, after taking another look inside, continued.
"Yes; the creature's eyes are open; he stared wonderingly at me. In
his right hand, he's clutching what appears to be a metal bar.
Evidently, he's worked it loose from some part of the rocket, and has
been hammering with it on the sides, to attract attention."
"Which shows that he's got sense," supplemented McGinity.
Henry turned to me. "See here," he said, quietly; "you go and explain
matters to Jane and Pat, and send them back to the house. Send all
the women servants back. The sight of this thing may send them into
hysterics—Jane especially."
After I had carried out his instructions, and returned to the spot,
Henry took McGinity and me by the arms, and walked us away for
some distance before he brought us to a stop.
"Now," he said, "we can take one thing as a fact: this ship, or pear-
shaped metal rocket, fell out of the sky last night, and was
embedded here in the sand. In view of the radio message registered
from Mars last night in Radio Center, are you both willing and ready
to accept this rocket, and the strange creature inside of it, as coming
from Mars?"
"I imagine that's the real answer," McGinity said. "This rocket
plunged from the sky, that's certain. Of course, I look at it from the
newspaper story angle. But I'm willing to stand by you, Mr. Royce.
Whatever you say, goes with me."
"And you, Livingston?" Henry looked at me.
"Well—er—it is not quite clear to me, Henry," I replied. "Your belief
that it came from Mars may be good enough in theory, perhaps—"
"You must remember, Livingston," Henry interrupted, "that the
Martians may be centuries in advance of us in many ways. Granting
that they are, may we not assume that they could invent a gun of
some unusual, or unknown style, that could shoot a rocket into
space, beyond the gravitational pull of their planet, which is not so
strong as ours?"
"Anyway, that's one way we can theorize," I said, "whether it's true or
not."
"Grant anything or not," McGinity said to me, "you heard that radio
message from Mars last night, announcing that such a rocket, or
'ship,' had been launched earthwards, and later, you saw the
explosion in the sky right over this spot, which undoubtedly marked
the fall of this rocket."
I nodded. "Yes; and it's absurd on the face of things, I'll admit, not to
believe my ears and eyes." And then I committed myself. "I'm darned
if I know what this thing is—or where it came from," I asserted, "but
here it is, and I'll agree to anything you and Henry say."
"All right—good!" said Henry, slapping me on the back. "Now, we are
all agreed on this. We are three witnesses, then, on whose testimony
will hang the credulity of the world."
"Anyway, nobody can accuse me of cooking up a story," McGinity
remarked, as we retraced our steps.
XIV
Returning to the rocket, we found that the problem of getting the
strange passenger out of it had been solved by the foreman of the
estate, a very ingenious and alert young man. Without the slightest
indication of fear, he had passed a strong rope under the arms of the
creature, padding the rope where it touched the body, as a protective
measure against injury. Outside, he had rigged up a small derrick.
His idea was to hoist the passenger by the shoulders, through the
opening in the rocket.
One of the chauffeurs had brought a stretcher and some blankets
from the garage in the car. Everything was set for the performance
when I heard Henry murmur: "The providence of heaven for this
rocket to land here!"
I was just pushing forward to get another peep. The creature was
anything but pleasant to look at, or be near, and I was thankful that I
was smoking a strong cigar. After it had been hoisted out of the
rocket, and placed with tender care on the stretcher, I found myself
still staring at this queerest of queer things; so extremely hideous as
to be almost fascinating to the gaze; a sort of living satire on a man-
beast, which might have been imagined by Jonathan Swift, or drawn
by Doré.
He was unclothed, of course, and there was a strong probability that
he had never worn any clothes at all, not even a loin cloth. But out of
the strange fellow's face gleamed a pair of unusually bright,
wondering eyes. His look was suggestive of extreme gratitude for
our rescuing him from his perilous plight.
Our first gesture of good-will and hospitality was made by Niki, who
had brought from the castle two long-necked bottles, one containing
milk, the other, sherry. Just before the creature was lifted out of the
rocket, and was held in an upright position by the ropes from the
derrick, Niki, at Henry's suggestion, had offered it the choice of the
two bottles. To our amazement, the creature's sharp eyes had
fastened themselves at once on the bottle containing the sherry,
while a hand, that was suggestively like a chimpanzee's, pointed to
it. Then he opened his enormous mouth and held it open.
Niki poked the bottle of sherry down his throat, and gave him an
inordinately large dose of it, and the creature gulped it down as if it
had been a teaspoonful of cough syrup; such a dose would have
made me jump; in him, it did not produce the flicker of an eye-lash.
The sherry was followed by a small dose of milk.
It is only fair to describe the creature in his natural state, for a few
days later, Henry dressed him in custom clothes, under which his
hairy ugliness, and revolting uncouthness, were almost completely
hidden.
When first discovered, he appeared to be in a coma, his head
drooped over to one side; his face was puffed and blotched, a little
greenish. Henry had explained this condition as arising from the
lassitude of space, for the rocket must have traveled at a frightening
speed. At first touch, his body felt cold; there was hardly any pulse.
To my mind he was human, but a separate species, similar to the
skeletons of the ancient type of man recovered from deposits in
certain sections of our globe. As I studied him, I realized that the
term "human" should be employed with reservation.
Judged by a human standard, I placed him at once in my mind as
being in the zone between the form of man and ape, a man type but
not a fully evolved product. His massive jaws, for one thing,
suggested the ape. He was at least six feet in height. His shoulders
were broad and massive, and his arms were a little longer in
proportion to a man's. He had very broad hands, with short, thick
fingers. But the fingers, I noticed, were not united by a web, which is
characteristic of apes on the earth, this web often extending to the
first finger joint.
His skin was as black as the Negro types of Africa. It was covered
with large coarse hair, under which was a coat of short, curly hair; a
very ample bodily protection, I figured, provided by nature, against
the range of temperatures on his planet. He had a small skull, and
enormous canine teeth. The perplexing aspect was his human-like
countenance. The skin of his face was a pinkish white, like a baby's,
and of a glossy appearance. The beard-line was marked with a light
powdery growth of hair, common to boys approaching manhood;
under his chin was a real beard, a short and thick one. Judged
humanly, he would pass for a man in his late twenties.
While I was studying his general appearance, it struck me as strange
that so far he hadn't spoken. When Henry walked over to the
stretcher from the rocket, I sounded him on the talk question.
"There's the possibility that the creature is still in the monosyllabic
stage," he replied. "We won't know if he has the power of speech
until he comes out of the terrific strain he's been under, and
becomes acclimated. I dare say he'll be sluggish for some time,
because of the earth's heavy gravitational pull, so different from that
on Mars, where the people walk and leap with feathery lightness
because of the planet's small size. While, on the sun, for instance,
the gravitational pull is so powerful that you or I could only move
about with the assistance of a steam-crane."
I smiled at the thought of being assisted in walking by a steam-
crane, and wondered what would happen if I were in a hurry to catch
a train. Then I laughed out loud. My laughter, however, was
provoked at the sight of the creature opening his mouth, and holding
it open, at the approach of Niki, as if to signify that he wanted
another dose of sherry. Certainly he had brains even if he couldn't
talk.
Calling the servants over to the stretcher, Henry said: "Now, men,
this stranger from a far distant world needs our immediate
assistance. Everybody give a hand, and we'll carry him to the car
and then drive to the castle."
"Surely you're not going to take him inside the castle?" I said.
"Why not?" Henry retorted. "We're not used to this sort of guest, I
know, but we'll just have to get used to him. I regard this helpless
creature as an ambassador of good will from another world, and I
intend to extend to him the same hospitality I would offer the
Ambassador of Great Britain, if he were my guest."
"Have you consulted Jane about this?" I persisted.
"No!" he roared; adding, testily: "Am I not master in my own house?"
"You are being absurd, Henry. That's all I've got to say." This closed
the conversation so far as I was concerned.
Henry went on, however, though in a more subdued tone. "In any
case," he said, "since you've brought the matter up, I'll give you my
word that as long as the creature is a guest in our home, he shall be
kept under careful surveillance."
He walked off, and in a few moments, he was leading the way, as six
men, with their uncanny burden, swung away toward the car. I
followed them, at some distance, and to my stunned amazement, on
arriving at the castle, I learned from Jane that Henry had put the
thing to bed in our guest chamber de luxe, which we called the State
Apartment. Jane was more disturbed than she cared to admit. She
and Pat had both seen the creature, and she spoke of it as looking
"rather dreadful." When I asked her how Pat had taken it, she said
Pat had looked surprised but not at all startled.
"Listen, Jane," I said, in a serious tone. "Do you think if Henry was in
his right mind, he would be capable of such action, housing this
awful, frightful thing in with the rest of us?"
Jane pretended not to be listening.
"Nevertheless," I continued, "you know that our beloved parent went
insane before he died, but it was kept quiet, and we can't afford to
ignore a thing like this, breaking out in Henry, to conceal an old
scandal in our family."
At this Jane turned on me. "Be careful, Livingston," she admonished;
"no good rattling the skeleton in our closet with a reporter in our
midst. I think Henry's acting very sanely, considering the strain he's
been under, and I can't help thinking, as he does, that it was a
definite act of providence for this rocket from Mars to fall near our
beach. As for the creature that came in the rocket, in its present
state, I'm sure it can do no harm."
I tried to prolong the argument, but she refused to discuss the
subject any further, and finally left me. On my way to breakfast, I ran
into Pat, who had just finished hers. "Oh, Uncle Livingston!" she
exclaimed. "What a lot of fun we're going to have with this big Teddy
Bear in the house!" A remark so incredible that I almost gasped.
"It will be quite pleasant, won't it?" I observed, sardonically. "But
some people mightn't like it."
Then she caught me by the arm, and drew me aside. She dropped
the gay tone of her voice, and glanced round half-fearfully before
speaking. "I really don't like the idea so much myself," she admitted.
"But you see—now brace yourself for this—I must pretend I'm not
shocked, or frightened, because Mr. McGinity says all this makes a
whale of a good story, even better and bigger than the fall of the
meteor in Times Square, and establishing radio communication with
Mars. And, you know, I'm too good a friend of his to spoil—a whale
of a good story."
"Isn't this stretching things rather fine?" I asked. "Mr. McGinity is a
smart young man, as I believe I've said before, but there's no reason
under heaven why you should jeopardize your comfort and personal
safety just for the sake of his getting a story. It's dangerous
business."
"Call it what you like," she returned evasively. "I've made up my mind
not to be frightened, and I'm going to stick to it even if—" She
checked herself, and I saw that she was trembling.
I was startled. "Look here, Pat," I said. "We can't have you work
yourself into a state of nerves over this. I'll go and find Henry, and
order him to get this Barnum's 'What Is It?' out of the house, quickly;
and if he doesn't, I'll have it removed by force, and hand it over to the
Bronx Zoo. Why—why, the creature might sneak out, in the dead of
night, and get in your bedroom!"
"Why, in heaven's name, should it want to get in my room?" she said,
with a return of her usual composure. "That sounds rather silly to
me."
"I suppose I shouldn't be telling you this, Pat," I said, doubtfully, "as
you're still very young, and—"
"I don't think you can tell me much I don't know," she interrupted.
"Anyway, Niki is going to act as the creature's guard and valet, and
he's very much pleased about it."
"Oh, Niki will do anything, now, short of murder, to please Henry," I
said; "he's hot after that $25,000 reward. But the whole matter to me
—now prepare yourself—'ain't what you'd call natural.' If putting a big
chimpanzee in our bedchamber de luxe, and giving it valet service,
isn't the act of a lunatic, I don't know what is."
"I agree with you," Pat rejoined, "but I'm afraid, as far as Uncle Henry
is concerned, the matter is hopeless. We must try to get his point of
view."
"No; I'll be darned if I will!" I said to myself. Then I said, aloud:
"Anyway, you will lock your door carefully, Pat?"
"I always do," she replied, laughing, and left me.
She had no sooner gone, when McGinity came downstairs, and we
had breakfast together. He didn't say very much; apparently he was
lost in thought. My mind was too confused to work properly, but while
we ate, in strained silence, I was trying to think a way out of all the
mess as best I could. Presently, McGinity broke the silence by
exclaiming, partly to himself: "That terrible ape in the same house
with Pat! Think of it!"
"I have thought, to my own shame, and to the shame of our house," I
returned. "But Henry seems to think this visitor from Mars the
gentlest thing alive."
"My hands are tied," he said, despondently. "Can't you suggest
something?"
"The only thing I can suggest is that you stay on with us, if you can
arrange to do your writing here," I said, "as a sort of personal guard
for Pat. As Henry seems to have grown rather fond of you, I'm sure
he can hold no objection. Of course, not a word to Pat about it."
McGinity sat up suddenly in his chair. "That's a great idea," he
exclaimed. "My City Editor just ordered me to stick on the job, and I
was planning to stay at a hotel in the village."
"If you were to act as personal guard for Pat," I remarked, "there
would be nothing sentimental about it, of course."
"Oh, of course, nothing like that," McGinity replied; and he colored
and looked at Pat's white cockatoo, on its perch, by the window, the
furniture, the ceiling—anywhere but at me.
"I'm sure I can arrange it with Henry to have you stay," I said. "If he
insists on keeping this Teddy Bear, as Pat jokingly calls it, in the
house, I'm afraid, I'm sadly afraid, there's going to be trouble.
Unpleasantness, at any rate."
McGinity looked me square in the eyes. "Pardon me, Mr. Livingston,"
he said, "but—is there any insanity running in your family?"
Recalling Jane's admonishment, I hesitated a moment before
replying. "Isn't there a chance of an abnormal state of mind bobbing
up in any family?" I said at last, and let it go at that.
"Anyway, we've got to keep Pat safe," McGinity said. "And as long as
this creature is kept in the house, she should be instructed never to
wander round alone, upstairs or downstairs. Why, I've got nerves of
steel, myself, but I'll confess that if I bumped unexpectedly into a
creature like that, in the dark, I'd run like hell."
At this, Henry entered the picture, remaining just long enough to
dash down a cup of black coffee, and to invite McGinity and me
down to the beach for a more detailed study of the rocket, and to
search for the parchment scroll concealed therein, the deciphering of
which he felt would help solve the riddle of Mars.
"I'm mighty glad to have your assistance, McGinity," he said, over his
hasty cup of coffee, "and I've been wondering if you could arrange
with your newspaper to remain with us, and write your stories here."
McGinity gave me a significant side glance, then replied: "I'm sure I
can fix it, Mr. Royce. Thanks a lot for the honor and compliment."
On our way out, Henry further informed us that he had called in the
best physician in the neighborhood, who was now at the bedside of
the visitor from Mars, rendering every possible medical aid. He
seemed rather disgruntled when Pat met us on the terrace, and
insisted on accompanying us to the beach. But this mood was
quickly offset by the appearance of Olinski, who had raced from the
city to the castle as fast as a taxi-cab could get him there, in
response to Henry's urgent telephone call.
XV
All that had transpired, of course, was of astounding revelation to
Olinski. He could hardly contain himself when we showed him the
rocket; in fact, he didn't contain himself. He threw his arms around
Henry, and kissed him explosively on both cheeks, after the French
manner, much to my brother's embarrassment. Then he began to act
half-dotty. But, thanks to his half-dottiness, it was from him, and not
from Henry, that we got our first intelligible explanation of the
mechanism of this metal messenger from the far reaches of
interstellar space.
I can't remember much that he said. I often think back and try to
recall his clever explanations of this and that, but with little result. I
suppose my mind lacks the scientific twist to understand such
matters. I do recall, however, a few of his remarks.
After he had completed his first inspection, he turned to Henry, and
said: "There isn't a screw or bolt, in the makeup of this rocket, that
resembles those we make on this earth. Their screw-thread runs in
reverse order to ours."
"In other words," said Henry, "to drive in a Martian screw you've got
to use a reverse motion to ours."
"Precisely," Olinski agreed. "And their bolts are not cylindrical like
ours, either, but square-shaped," he continued. "They wouldn't serve
their purpose if they were round for the Martians seem only to drill
square holes, and they don't use nuts to fasten their bolts. Instead,
their bolt seems to have a peculiar form of polarity, capable of
attracting to itself a magnetizable substance; in this instance, steel
caps, which secure the bolts as firmly in place as our nuts do."
There was a brief pause, following this amazing elucidation, during
which I whispered to McGinity: "Do you think it all seems possible?"
And he quickly replied: "Screws and bolts cannot speak false."
"Now, it looks to me," Olinski said to Henry, as we gathered closer
around him, "as though your contention that all things were created
alike in the universe, would also apply to the creative works of men.
This rocket, if constructed on Mars—and I certainly believe it was—
proves that the minds of human beings, whether they're inhabitants
of the earth, or Mars, or any other planet in our universe, run in the
same channel, or along similar lines."
"But why should they drive their screws in backwards?" I asked. "I
can't understand it. It's so much easier the way we do it here, on
earth. It sounds screwy."
Olinski smiled, but could give no explanation. "Now, this rocket," he
went on, "is constructed of aluminum, and its cone-shaped nose
contains a tiny bulbous chamber, in which the liquid fuel, which
appears to be a mixture of highly volatile gasoline and liquid oxygen,
burns to form the propulsion gases which shoot downward, like the
gases from gunpowder in the ordinary fire-works rocket.
"It may be that this fuel is something we know nothing about," he
went on. "Interplanetary travel involves the production of a
substance that will produce more energy per pound than is required
to lift that pound out of the earth's gravitational pull. We haven't been
able as yet to produce such a fuel. Looks like the Martian scientists
have put one over on us.

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Ad hoc Mobile and Wireless Networks 17th International

Ad Hoc Mobile and Wireless Networks 19th International

Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks for Smart Cities Second

Ad Hoc Networks 5th International ICST Conference

Ad Hoc Networks 6th International ICST Conference

Ad hoc Mobile and Wireless Networks 13th International

Ad hoc Mobile and Wireless Networks 15th International

Ad hoc Mobile and Wireless Networks 14th International

ISBN 978-981-10-8769-1 ISBN 978-981-10-8770-7 (eBook)

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

Printed on acid-free paper

4 Neighbour Counts Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

7.4.1 The Effect of Mobility Model and Speed on Number

Prof. Dr. Amlan Chakrabarti is a Full Professor of Information Technology in

Fig. 3.1 A typical mobile ad hoc network topology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16

Fig. 5.2 Autocorrelations of link load values for AODV routing

Fig. 6.19 Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation

1.1.1 Differences Between Cellular and Ad Hoc

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018 1

1.1.2 Applications of Ad Hoc Wireless Networks

1.1.3 Technical Challenges in MANET

As discussed in previous section, the time-dependent parameters of MANET need

1.3 Aims and Objectives

NCt = f (NCt−1 , NCt−2 , . . . , NCt−p ) : 1 ≤ p < ∞. (1.1)

NCt = φ0 + φ1 NCt−1 + φ2 NCt−2 + · · · + φp NCt−p + at (1.2)

where 1 ≤ p < ∞ is a non-negative integer, at s are the samples of white noise

where 1 ≤ p < ∞ is a non-negative integer. When evaluated the order p of the

1.5 Book Structure

The book is structured as follows:

Objectives of the chapter

2.1 Introduction to Time Series

A ordered sequence of events or observations having a time component is called as a

2.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018 9

2.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling

2.3.1 Autoregressive Process

The autoregressive process of order p denoted as A R( p) can be defined as Eq. 2.1

rt = φ0 + φ1rt−1 + φ2 rt−2 + · · · + φ p rt− p + at (2.1)

where p is a non-negative integer and φi ∈ are parameters of the A R( p), 0 ≤

provided that the denominator is not zero.

The associated polynomial equation of the A R( p) model, called characteristic equa-

x p − φ1 x p−1 − φ2 x p−2 − · · · − φ p = 0 (2.4)

where xd represents the autocorrelation coefficient at lag d. A lag of d means the

Next, dividing by (N − 1) throughout and using the evenness of the autocovariance,

Finally, dividing throughout by c0 , we get

which gives x1 in terms of 1, x1 , . . . , x N −1 . Repeating the same process, we get x2

2.4 Time Series Analysis and MANET

Objectives of the chapter

3.1 Introduction to Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) [79] is an autonomous system of mobile routers

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018 15

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