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There have been numerous contributors to this book, far too many to mention individually. I appreciate the

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input of every one of them and apologize for not formally acknowledging their contributions here. However, I
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Moreover, although Prentice Hall (Pearson) no longer publishes this book, their team (led by Donna Battista)

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were absolutely first-rate in all respects. I appreciate their help along the way.
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Copyright Ivo Welch, 2017. All Rights Reserved.


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1st Edition, “Corporate Finance: An Introduction,” ISBN-10 0321277996.

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2nd Edition, “Corporate Finance,” ISBN-10: 09840049-5-5, ISBN-13: 978-09840049-5-9.

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3rd Edition, “Corporate Finance,” ISBN-13: 978-0-9840049-1-1.
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4th Edition, “Corporate Finance,” ISBN-13: 978-0-9840049-2-8.

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Ivo Welch is a professor of Finance at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, where he holds
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a fancy title (the J. Fred Weston Distinguished Professor of Finance and Economics). He previously
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my wife Lily, and my three children, Arthur, Leonard and Greta.

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any price. After you have used this book once, you will not want to go back. As far as I know, no

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This book is also an experiment in pricing. All major economics book publishers believe that

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professors do not care how much their textbooks cost. This book puts this belief to the test: its
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competitors cost $300 plus. This edition remains priced at $60 in print, and it is also available

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for free on the web. (This price is low enough to allow many students to keep this book even

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after they have completed the course.) Of course, professors should adopt this book not because

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of its price, but because it is simply the best corporate finance textbook today, with full instructor
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support materials, including a free course management and equiz website.

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Essential Corporate Finance covers all the topics of the usual corporate finance curriculum.
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However, as noted above, the organizing principle of moving from perfect to imperfect markets
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unifies the core chapters. This progression from financial “utopia” to the complex real world
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remaining parts.

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Part I: Value and Capital Budgeting shows how to work with rates of return and how to decide
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whether to take or reject projects in a perfect market under risk neutrality. Five chapters
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and annuities, capital budgeting, interest rates, uncertainty, and debt and equity in the
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absence of risk aversion.
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risk and expected returns in a perfect market. It first provides a historical backdrop of rates
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of return on various asset classes and some institutional background. It then proceeds to

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Part III: Value and Market Efficiency in an Imperfect Market describes what happens if the
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realistic. Thus, in this part, two chapters examine the reality of information differences,
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noncompetitive markets, transaction costs, and taxes. The chapters also explain differences
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between efficient and inefficient markets, and between rational and behavioral finance.
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This edition of the book is disciplined in keeping only enough content to fit the essential first

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course in finance. This keeps the book short. Other material—even important material as long

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as it is impossible to cover in a first course—is now in a “Companion” book. This book is also
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available for free. Instructors can also print and distribute individual chapters. Formatting is the

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same as it is in this primary book, but update are only ever other edition or so. The companion
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accreditation—but which no introductory finance course has ever found time to cover.

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structure patterns in the United States, investment banking and mergers & acquisitions, corporate
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governance, international finance, and options and risk management. It also includes appendices
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real world); Chapter 8 (more explanations for the efficient frontier); and Chapter 10 (certainty
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equivalence, two-portfolio separation, the relation between the mean-variance efficient frontier
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and the CAPM, and available CAPM alternatives, such as the APT); Chapter 12 (an event study);

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obligations and on the tax shelter effect of debt). Each chapter appendix is briefly previewed in
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the main text. Finally, the book’s website (book.ivo-welch.info) has a chapter on quantitative

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real option implementation and a provocative chapter on ethics.


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the third to the fourth edition, is now laid out onto the website, book.ivo-welch.info. The website
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also offers more information about additional instructor aids.


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PS: Please email any errata to the author. The website will keep an errata page.
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To Struggling First-Course Finance Students

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I would like to warn you ahead of time about one common issue in introductory finance

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classes that may end up frustrating you. This is especially the case if you take your first finance
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course in an MBA program. Chances are that you will find the tempo of the first finance course
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knowledge. (Some also wrongly believe that they already know everything they need to know,
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fail to realize this and study, and are then shocked when they fail the course.)

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simply to keep up.

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If you are in the second group, you will initially feel overwhelmed by the class experience.

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And let me advise patience, practice, and reflection: New knowledge will eventually fall into
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place, and you should be able to do well in the end. Some of my best and brightest students felt
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joined the MBA program!) Struggling and anxiety along the way are necessary and maybe even
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7.

You may become tempted to blame your instructor for your frustrations. But instructors are
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caught in the same circumstances as you are. How would you gear an introductory finance class
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toward the different kinds of students in your class? See, despite the different levels of student
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preparedness, recruiters expect every graduating MBA to have a solid grasp of the finance basics.

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(And they often ask questions that could go right onto the midterm or final.) If there is a magic
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bullet, I have not found it. There are no easy solutions.


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After having lamented our common dilemma, let me not disavow our instructor responsibility:

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We must make the first finance course a surmountable and interesting challenge for all motivated

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students, regardless of background. Every unprepared but willing student must be able to acquire
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a solid finance background. Every prepared student must find the class useful.
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Yet let me also disavow one misconception. It is not an instructor’s duty to be entertaining or
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even to be liked. In fact, a recent study at the U.S. Air Force Academy has shown that students
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randomly enrolled in classes did better in subsequent courses if their first instructor was less
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generous in grading and less well-liked. If you want to be entertained, skip the finance course
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and listen to TED lectures on pop culture, instead. Finance is not a passive or easy experience.
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May the Force (of this book) be with you!


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PS: If your instructor is not using a syllabus.space site, you can register and work with on the
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generic corporate-finance course at http://syllabus.space to test your progress.


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Contents vii
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Chapter 1 Introduction 1
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1.1 The Goal of Finance: Relative Valuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1


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1.2 Investments, Projects, and Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3


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1.3 Firms versus Individuals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

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Part I Value and Capital Budgeting

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Chapter 2 Present Value 11

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2.1 The Basic Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

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2.2 Loans and Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12


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7.
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2.3 Returns, Net Returns, and Rates of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

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2.4 Time Value, Future Value, and Compounding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
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2.5 Present Value, Discounting, and Capital Budgeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
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2.6 Net Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
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Chapter 3 Stock and Bond Valuation: Annuities and Perpetuities 37

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3.1 Perpetuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
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3.2 Annuities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
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3.3 The Four Formulas Summarized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
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Chapter 4 A First Encounter with Capital-Budgeting Rules 55


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4.1 Net Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55


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4.2 The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59


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4.3 The Profitability Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67


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4.4 The Payback Capital-Budgeting Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68


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4.5 How Do Executives Decide? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
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7
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17

po
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E d o ra
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n
viii Contents

po 20

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Fi
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7.

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a
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nc

o
tio
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01

lch M
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C
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Co ay
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Chapter 5 Time-Varying Rates of Return and the Yield Curve 75

iti
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h,
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2

),

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Ed
M

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5.1 Working with Time-Varying Rates of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
a

c
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E
on
, C ay

o
or

l
5.2 Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

e
,

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rp

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5.3 U.S. Treasuries and the Yield Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Iv
t
W
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4
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5.4 Why Does the Yield Curve Usually Slope Up? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95


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5.5 Corporate Time-Varying Costs of Capital . . . . . . . . . . . .
i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

7
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h

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

I
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7

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Chapter 6 Uncertainty, Default, and Risk 105


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Co Ma nan We

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6.1 An Introduction to Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
t

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6.2 Interest Rates and Credit Risk (Default Risk) . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
vo
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Iv

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0
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Co ay
6.3 Uncertainty in Capital Budgeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
a

M anc elch May nan o W itio ate

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6.4 Splitting Uncertain Project Payoffs into Debt and Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

M
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an

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ay
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17

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

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Part II Risk and Return C 135
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Chapter 7 A First Look at Investments 137


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7.1 Stocks, Bonds, and Cash, 1990-2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137


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7.2 Overview of Equity-Related Market Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

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Chapter 8 Investor Choice: Risk and Reward 165

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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


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8.1 Measuring Risk and Reward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
W

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7.
E

8.2 Diversification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

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7

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8.3 Investor Preferences and Risk Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

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8.4 Interpreting Some Typical Stock Market Betas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
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8.5 Market Betas for Portfolios and Conglomerate Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
rp

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Chapter 9 Benchmarked Costs of Capital 193
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9.1 What You Already Know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193


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9.2 The Risk-Free Rate — Time Compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194


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9.3 The Equity Premium — Risk Compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195


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9.4 Forward-Looking Benchmarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
h

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9.5 Asset Costs of Capital vs. Equity Costs of Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208


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9.6 Deconstructing Quoted Rates of Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208


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9.7 Other Benchmarks and “The Method” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
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Chapter 10 The Capital Asset Pricing Model 213


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10.1 What You Already Know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213


t
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Ed ora

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10.2 The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214


or
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10.3 Estimating the Extra Input: Market Beta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221


2

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10.4 Neutralizing Equity-Premium Uncertainty?! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224


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10.5 Is the CAPM the Right Model? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224


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10.6 Good CAPM Alternatives and Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
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17

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E d o ra
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Contents ix

po 20

or
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7.

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01

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C
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Part III Market Efficiency
te

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Chapter 11 Market Imperfections 241

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11.1 Causes and Consequences of Imperfect Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . r


. . . . . . 241
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11.2 Opinions, Disagreements, and Insider Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
tio

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11.3 Market Depth and Transaction Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

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11.4 Taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257

I
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11.5 Entrepreneurial Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
. I hE

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7

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11.6 Deconstructing Quoted Rates of Return—Imperfect Market Premiums . . . . . . . . . 264

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1
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11.7 Multiple Effects: How to Work Novel Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
4

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4

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2
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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
(

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Iv

r
0
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Co ay
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M anc elch May nan o W itio ate

o
ce

t
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Chapter 12 Perfect and Efficient Markets, and Classical and Behavioral Finance 277
7.

M
17 h E or
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n
ay
F

Ed por
17

12.1 Market Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277

E
1

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Ed orp

o
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12.2 Market Efficiency Beliefs and Behavioral Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283

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h
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12.3 The Random Walk and the Signal-to-Noise Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

4t
2

d
C
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12.4 True Arbitrage and Risk(y) Arbitrage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
C
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12.5 Investment Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294

e
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7.
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12.6 A Cynical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

v
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12.7 Corporate Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

(
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12.8 Event Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307

e
4
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y2
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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
h

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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


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7.

Part IV Real-World Applications


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Chapter 13 Capital Budgeting Applications and Pitfalls 315

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13.1 So Many Returns: The Internal Rate of Return, the Cost of Capital, the Expected
n

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Rate of Return, and the Hurdle Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315


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13.2 Promised, Expected, Typical, or Most Likely? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316


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13.3 Badly Blended Costs of Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318


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13.4 The Economics of Project Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323


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13.5 Evaluating Projects Incrementally . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328


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13.6 Real Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334


di

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13.7 Behavioral Biases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339
h

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13.8 Incentive Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340


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13.9 An NPV Checklist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346


20 4th
4t

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
0

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Chapter 14 From Financial Statements to Economic Cash Flows 355


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14.1 Financial Statements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355


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14.2 Long-Term Accruals (Depreciation) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363


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14.3 Deferred Taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371


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14.4 Short-Term Accruals and Working Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374


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14.5 Earnings Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377


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17

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E d o ra
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7.

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01

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14.6 Economic Cash Flows from Intel’s Financials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378

iti
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14.7 What To Believe on the Balance Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380
a

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381

e
,

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Chapter 15 Valuation from Comparables and Financial Ratios 387
tio

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15.1 Got Your Marbles? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387

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15.2 Comparables and Net Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388

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15.3 The Price-Earnings (P/E) Ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
. I hE

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15.4 Problems with Price-Earnings Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . e( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
W

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15.5 The Empirical Evidence in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
4

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15.6 Other Financial Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408


(

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418

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Part V Capital Structure and Payout Policy
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16.1 The Basic Building Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425

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16.2 Liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428

7.
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16.3 Equity (Stock) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435

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16.4 Understanding Intel’s Capital Structure in 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
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17.1 Maximization of Equity Value or Firm Value? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447

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17.2 Modigliani and Miller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450


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17.3 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470
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Chapter 18 Taxes and Capital Structure 475


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18.2 Firm Value Under Different Capital Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477


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18.3 Formulaic Valuation Methods: APV and WACC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479


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18.7 The U.S. Tax System (Mess) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507
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Chapter 19 More Imperfect-Market Capital Structure 515


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19.1 What Really Matters? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515


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19.4 Bondholder Expropriation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529


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19.10 Capital Structure Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 549
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20.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555

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20.3 Dividends and Share Repurchases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 560

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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 565

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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576

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Part VI Projecting the Future


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Chapter 21 Pro Forma Financial Statements and An Intel Case 583


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21.1 The Goal and Logic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583


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21.4 The Detailed Projection Phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588


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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


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21.5 The Terminal Value (TV) Multiplier . . . . . . . . . . . . .


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21.6 Basic Intel Pro Formas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600


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21.8 Caution—The Emperor’s New Clothes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 605


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Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606
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Epilogue 611
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Theory or Practice? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611


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Thoughts on Business and Finance Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 613


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Finance, Economic, and Data Degree Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 617


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7.
Co Ma nan

Bon Voyage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 618


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20 4th
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Appendix Chapter. Technical Background 621


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General Mathematical and Statistical Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621


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Laws of Probability, Portfolios, and Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 624


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Cumulative Normal Distribution Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 628


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Introduction

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17

What Finance is All About

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Finance is such an important part of modern life that almost everyone can benefit

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from understanding it better. What you may find surprising is that the financial

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problems facing Intel or Microsoft are not much different from those facing an average

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investor, small business owner, entrepreneur, or family. On the most basic level,

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these problems are about how to allocate money. The choices are many: Money can
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be borrowed, saved, or lent. Money can be invested into projects. Projects can be
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undertaken with partners or with the aid of lenders—or avoided altogether if they
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do not appear to be valuable enough. Finance is about deciding among these and
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other investment alternatives.

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1.1 The Goal of Finance: Relative Valuation
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Theme number one of this

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There is one principal theme that carries through all of finance: value. What exactly is a particular
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book is value! Make

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can assess value, the smarter your decisions will be.


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The main reason why you need to estimate value is that you will want to buy objects whose
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Everyone needs to know how


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values are above their costs and avoid those where the situation is the reverse. Sounds easy? If
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it were only so! In practice, finding a good value (valuation) is often very difficult. But it is not

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symbols, and the overwhelming majority of finance formulas use only the five major operations
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(addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, and exponentiation). Admittedly, even if the


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formulas themselves are not sophisticated, there are a lot of them, and they have an intuitive
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economic meaning that requires experience to grasp. But if you managed to pass high-school
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algebra, and if you are motivated, you will be able to handle the math. Math is not the real
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difficulty in valuation.
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It is in the real world that the challenging difficulties lie, beyond finance theory. You often
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have to decide how you should judge the future—whether your gizmo will be a hit or a bust,
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whether the economy will enter a recession or not, where you will find product markets, how you
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can advertise, how interest rates or the stock market will move, and so on. This book will explain
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what you should forecast and how you should use your forecasts in the best way, but it mostly
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remains up to you to make these forecasts. Putting this more positively, if forecasts and valuation
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were easy, a computer could take over this job. But this will never happen. Valuation will
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always remain an art and a science, which requires judgment and common sense. The formulas
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and finance in this book are necessary tools to help you convert your reasoned, informed, and
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less than equivalent alternatives, than it is to put an absolute value on it.

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Toyota Camry, this is not too difficult. There are many other 2013 Toyota Camries, as well as

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2012 Toyota Camries, 2014 Toyota Camries, and 2013 Honda Accords, that you can readily buy.

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If there are 10 other exact equivalents on the same block for sale, your valuation task is outright
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What would happen if you make a mistake in valuing your Camry? If you put too low a value

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on your car, you would sell it too cheaply. If you put too high a value on your car, you would not
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matter. If someone were to offer to pay $1,000 above the Accord value for your Camry, the price

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would be above your opportunity cost. You should then sell the Camry, buy the Accord, and gain

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$1,000.

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The law of one price rarely applies perfectly. But it often applies imperfectly. For example,
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your Camry may have 65,334 miles on it, be green, and be located in Providence, RI. The

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works exactly. Instead, it should hold only approximately. That is, your car may not be worth

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the same exact amount as your comparables, but it should be worth a similar amount, perhaps

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Would it be easier to estimate the value of your car if shipping and repainting cars were free?
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sellers and recent transactions. In finance, the concept of a “perfect market” contemplates such
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and painting costs.


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The task of valuing objects becomes more difficult when you are unable (or not allowed) to
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find similar objects for which you know the value. If you had to value your 2013 Camry based
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objects, valuation is more


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on knowledge of the value of plasma televisions, vacations, or pencils, then your valuation task
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dif cult.
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would be much more difficult. Common sense implies that it is easier to value objects relative to
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close comparable objects than to objects that are very different. In the real world, some objects
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are intrinsically easy to value; others are not.


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Q 1.1. Discuss how easy it is to put a value on the following objects:


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4. Manhattan
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1.2 Investments, Projects, and Firms

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The most basic object in finance is the project. As far as finance is concerned, every project 1
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To value projects, make sure

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is a set of flows of money (cash flows). Most projects require an upfront cash outflow (an

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investment or expense or cost) and are followed by a series of later cash inflows (payoffs or

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including opportunity costs

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revenues or returns). It does not matter whether the cash flows come from hauling garbage
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and pleasure bene ts.


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or selling Prada handbags. Cash is cash. However, it is important that all costs and benefits

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are included as cash values. If you have to spend a lot of time hauling trash, which you find
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distasteful, then you have to translate your dislike into an equivalent cash negative. Similarly, if

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you want to do a project “for the fun of it,” you must translate your “fun” into a cash positive.
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The discipline of finance takes over after all positives and negatives (inflows and outflows) from
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the project “black box” have been translated into their appropriate monetary cash values.

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The Joy of Cooking: Positive Prestige Flows and Restaurant Failures

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In New York City, two out of every five new restaurants close within one year. Nationwide, the best estimates suggest that
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about 90% of all restaurants close within two years. If successful, the average restaurant earns a return of about 10% per
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year. One explanation as to why so many entrepreneurs are continuing to open up restaurants, despite seemingly low
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financial rates of return, is that restauranteurs enjoy owning a restaurant so much that they are willing to buy the prestige

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of owning one. If this is the case, then to value the restaurant, you must factor in how much the restauranteur is willing to
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pay for the prestige of owning it, just as you would factor in the revenues that restaurant patrons generate.

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This does not mean that the operations of the firm—issues like manufacturing, inventory,
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sales, marketing, payables, working capital, competition, and so on—are unimportant. On the

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contrary, these business factors are all of the utmost importance in making the cash flows happen,
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we won't cover much of it.


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and a good (financial) manager must understand them. After all, even if all you care about are
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cash flows, it is impossible to understand them well if you have no idea where they come from
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and how they could change in the future.


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Projects need not be physical. For example, a company may have a project called “customer
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Cash ows must include


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relations,” with real cash outflows today and uncertain future inflows. You (a student) can be
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(quantify) non nancial


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viewed as a project: You pay for education (a cash outflow) and will earn a salary in the future
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bene ts.
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(a cash inflow). If you value the prestige that the degree will offer, you should also put a cash
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value on it. Then, this too will count as another cash inflow. In addition, some of the payoffs
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from education are metaphysical rather than physical. If you like making friends in school or if
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knowledge provides you with pleasure, either today or in the future, then education yields a
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value that should be regarded as a positive cash flow. (The discipline of finance makes it easy on
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itself by asking you to put a hard cash value number on these or any other emotional factors.)
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Of course, for some students, the distaste of learning should be factored in as a cost (equivalent
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cash outflow)—but I trust that you are not one of them. All such nonfinancial flows must be
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appropriately translated into cash equivalents if you want to arrive at a good project valuation.
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In finance, a firm is viewed as a collection of projects. This book assumes that the value of a

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firm is the value of all its projects’ net cash flows, and nothing else. Actually, the metaphor can
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basically collections of

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projects. also extend to a family. Your family may own a house, a car, have tuition payments, education

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investments, and so on—a collection of projects.
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There are two important specific kinds of projects that you may consider investing in—bonds

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The rm is the sum of all its

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and stocks, also called debt and equity. These are financial claims that the firm usually sells to

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in ows and all its out ows.
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investors. As you will learn later, you can mostly think of buying a stock as the equivalent of
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Stocks and bonds are just


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becoming an owner. You can think of buying a bond as the equivalent of lending money to the

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projects with in ows and

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issuer. In effect, a bondholder is just a creditor. For example, a firm may sell a lender a $100
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bond in exchange for a promised payment of $110 next year. (If the firm were to perform poorly,
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the bond would have to be paid off first, so it is less risky for an investor than the firm’s equity.

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However, it has limited upside.) In addition, the firm usually has other obligations, such as
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money that it has to pay to its suppliers (called “payables”). Together, if you own all outstanding
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claims on the firm, that is, all obligations and all stock, then you own the firm. This logic is not
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deep—simply speaking, there is nobody else: “You are it.”


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Entire Firm = All Outstanding Stocks + All Outstanding Liabilities

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As the 100% owner of a firm, you own all its stocks, bonds, and other obligations. Your entire
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firm then does its business and hopefully earns money. It does not need to pay out immediately
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what it earns, though. It can reinvest the money. Regardless of what the firm does, you still own
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it in its entirety.

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This means you own all net cash flows that the firm earns, after adjusting for all your necessary
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Entire Firm = All (Current and Future) Net Earnings

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Yet another way to look at the firm is to recognize that you will receive all the net cash flows

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It follows immediately that all the payments satisfying stocks and liabilities must be equal to all
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the firm’s net cash flows, which must be equal to the firm’s net payouts. All of these equalities
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really just state the same thing: “Value adds up.”


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Our book will spend a lot of time discussing claims, and especially the debt and equity forms
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We emphasize stocks and


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of financing—but for now, you can consider both debt and equity to be just simple investment
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bonds.
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projects: You put money in, and they pay money out. For many stock and bond investments
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that you can buy and sell in the financial markets, it is reasonable to assume that most investors
7
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enjoy very few, if any, non-cash-based benefits (such as emotional attachment).


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Investments and Corporate Finance


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So what is the difference between the two main introductory finance courses, one often called
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CorpFin = Supply.
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Corporate Finance, the other Investments? The first is primarily about the supply of assets to
7. h Ed orat 017

Investments = Demand.
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the financial markets. It is about firms who want to obtain funds from the financial markets and
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therefore issue claims. The second is primarily about the demand for assets by the financial
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markets. It is about investors who want to decide how to allocate their money across many
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potential opportunities. The two are not completely distinct: firms want to know what investors
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like when they think about what claims they want to sell; and investors want to know what firms

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make good investments for their portfolios. Thus, the two courses have a fair amount of overlap.
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In the end, you will need to understand both sides. Corporate finance is a good start.

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Q 1.2. In computing the cost of your M.B.A., should you take into account the loss of salary
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while going to school? Cite a few nonmonetary benefits that you reap as a student, too, and try

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to attach monetary value to them.
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Q 1.3. If you buy a house and live in it, what are your inflows and outflows?
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1.3 Firms versus Individuals

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We use the same principles
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This book is primarily about teaching concepts that apply to firms. In particular, if you are reading

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in corporate nance as in

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this, your goal will be to learn how you should determine projects’ values, given appropriate
ay

“home economics.”
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cash flows. What is your best tool? The law of one price, of course.

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The same logic that applies to your Camry applies to corporate projects in the real world.
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Relative valuation often

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Many have close comparables that make such relative valuation feasible. For example, say you
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works well in the corporate


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want to put a value on building a new factory in Rhode Island. You have many alternatives: You

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could look at the values of similar existing or potential factories in Massachusetts. Or you could

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7.
look at the values of similar factories in Mexico. Or you could look at how much it would cost just

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to buy the net output of the factory from another company. Or you could determine how much
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money you could earn if you invested your money instead in the bank or the stock market. If you
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understand how to estimate your factory’s value relative to your other opportunities, you then

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know whether you should build it or not. But not all projects are easy to value in relative terms.
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For example, what would be the value of building a tunnel across the Atlantic, of controlling
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global warming, or of terraforming Mars to make it habitable for humans? There are no easy
7.

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alternative objects to compare such projects to, so any valuation would inevitably be haphazard.

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If a corporation can determine the value of projects, then it can determine whether it should
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Value in the corporate


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take or pass on them. In the first part of this book, where we assume that the world is perfect

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context can depend on the


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(which will be explained in a moment), you will learn that projects have a unique value and
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quality of the market.


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firms should take all projects that add value (in an absolute sense). Later on, you will learn
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about a more realistic world in which projects can have values that are different for some owners
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than for others. In this case, you must take your specific situation into account when deciding

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whether you should take or leave projects.
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An interesting aspect of corporate decision making is that the owners are often not the
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managers. Instead, the managers are hired professionals. For a publicly traded corporation that
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management (control).
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may have millions of shareholder owners, even the decision to hire managers is de facto no
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longer made by the owners, but by their representatives and other hired managers.
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Unfortunately, it is just not feasible for managers simply to ask all the owners what they
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want. Therefore, one of the basic premises of finance is that owners expect their managers to
7
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owners want—value
20 4th
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maximize the value of the firm. You will learn that, in a perfect world, managers always know maximization!?
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how to do this. However, in the world we live in, this can sometimes be difficult. How should a
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manager act if some owners dislike investing in cigarettes, yet others believe that the firm has
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great opportunities in selling green tea, yet others believe the firm should build warships, yet
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others believe the firm should just put all the money into the bank, and yet others believe the
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firm should return all their money to them? These are among the more intriguing problems that
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this book covers.


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The need for managers to decide on appropriate objectives also raises some interesting ethical

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Ethical dilemmas.

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concerns, most of which are beyond the scope of this book. But let me mention one anyway.
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As I just noted, the standard view is that corporations are set up to maximize the wealth of

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their owners. It is the government’s job to create rules that constrain corporations to do so
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only within ethically appropriate boundaries. Thus, some will argue that it is the role of public

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institutions to pass laws that reduce the sale of products that kill (e.g., cigarettes), not the role
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of the corporation to abstain from selling them. If nothing else, they argue, if your corporation

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does not sell them, someone else almost surely will. (You can see this as a framework to help you

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understand corporations, not a normative opinion on what the moral obligations of companies
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should be. Nevertheless, it is also a view that many people have adopted as their normative
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perspective.) As if selling harmful products were not a complex enough dilemma, consider that

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laws are often passed by legislators who receive donations from tobacco corporations. (Indeed,
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public institutions are intentionally set up to facilitate such two-way “communications.”) What

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M anc elch May nan o W itio ate

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are the moral obligations of tobacco firm owners, their corporations, and their managers now?
c

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in

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)
7.

Fortunately, you first need to learn about value maximization before you are ready to move

M
17 h E or
an

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F

Ed por
17

on to these tougher questions. For the most part, this book sticks with the view that value

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maximization is the corporation’s main objective. This is not to endorse it, but to contemplate
20

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what to do if it is so.
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Let’s begin looking at how you should estimate project value.


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Let's get rolling.

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7.
4t
or

Q 1.4. Can you use the “law of one price” in your decision of whether to take or reject projects?
i

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Q 1.5. What is the main objective of corporate managers that this book assumes?
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Keywords

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Bond, 4. Cash flow, 3. Claim, 4. Corporate Finance, 4. Cost, 3. Debt, 4. Demand, 4. Equity, 4. Expense, 3.
ay
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Firm, 4. Investment, 3. Investments, 4. Law of one price, 2. Payoff, 3. Project, 3. Return, 3. Revenue, 3.

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or

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Stock, 4. Supply, 4. Valuation, 1.
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Answers
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iti

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7.
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Q 1.1 Here are my own judgment calls. closest alternative—which would be rebuilding it elsewhere.
an
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h

This may or may not be easy.


01
7

1. Easy. There are many foreign currency transactions, so you


vo
W

20 4th
4t

4. Many individual buildings in Manhattan have sold, so you


n
W

1
th

can easily figure out how many U.S. dollars you can get for
0
Ed rpo y 2

t
i

have good comparables for the individual components (build-


0

10,000 euros. You can find this exchange rate on many web
F

a
2
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(4

ings). However, no one has attempted to buy an entire world


2
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in
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)

sites, e.g., FINANCE (http://finance.yahoo.com).


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center like Manhattan, which means that it may be difficult to


7

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t
.I

an elc , M nce

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na o W tion e F

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2. Depends. Some paintings are easier to value than others. For


a
I

estimate it accurately.
1
an

a
M

example, Warhol painted similar works repeatedly, and the 5. The Chrysler Building would be relatively easy to value. There
17

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.

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7. h Ed orat 017

price of one may be a good indication for the price of others. are many similar buildings that have changed hands in the
t
n

na

i
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Ed ora

Ed

For other paintings, this can be very hard. What is the value
,

last few years.


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or
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of the Mona Lisa, for example? There are other da Vincis that
Fi

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6. A lower bound is easy, because we know how much candidates


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may help, but ultimately, the Mona Lisa is unique.


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tend to spend to win election. However, the cost varies with


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iti
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iti
ay

3. The Washington Monument is more than just the value of its the candidate and locale.
h,
a

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W
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7.
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4t
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iti

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(4

ay
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or 17.
v

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nc

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i

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Ed

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7.
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e(

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Fi
20

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),
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.I

po 201 4th orpo 17. 4th h, C Ma anc elch , Ma nce elch on) te F
el

20
na
t

2
Ed

vo
(4
W

ay
ay ce ( lch, n), e Fi vo W ition e F o W itio ora 017 4th orp 017
20 ce

Fi
ce
Iv diti te F . Iv
h,

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o

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7
Iv

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4

17

po
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1.3. Firms versus Individuals 7

po 20

or
,
Fi
n
7.

n)

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a
Fi
nc

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tio
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01

lch M
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7. Foreign stamps are harder to value than foreign currency, but spent a great amount of cash trying to preserve the environ-

ra

i
2

),

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M

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probably not that much harder. Stamp collectors know and ment in order to help species. The Yangtze river dolphin,
a

c
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on
, C ay

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usually publish the prices at which the same stamps have however, just recently became extinct, primarily due to hu-
or

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traded in the past years. man activity. What is the value of this loss? Unfortunately, we

th
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don’t have good comparables.
o
8. Love—oh, dear.

4
or

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o
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9. Valuing yourself is a tough issue. You can look at yourself

(
Q 1.2 Definitely yes. Foregone salary is a cost that you are bear-

.
E

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i

7
as a collection of cash flows, similar to other “walking cash

ce
ing. This can be reasonably estimated, and many economic consult-
,
t

v
i

h,
h

.I
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1
di

h
flows,” but doing so is highly error-prone. Nevertheless, hav- ing firms regularly do so. As to (partly) nonmonetary benefits, there

I
o

an
h

0
nc
4t
ing no other opportunities, this is how insurance companies

e
is the reputation that the degree bestows on you, the education that
. I hE

.
c

2
7

at
a
attach a value to life in court. You may consider yourself more betters you, and the pleasure that excessive beer consumption gives
th
l

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, M ina

in
1
Co Ma nan We

unique and irreplaceable. Still, you can infer your own value you (if applicable).

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r
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.
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0
4

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for your life by figuring out how willing you are to take the

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4

Q 1.3 Inflows: Value of implicit rent. Capital gain if house appre-


nc
o

2
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F
risk of losing it—e.g., by crossing the street, snowboarding, or
1
vo
(

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ciates. Outflows: Maintenance costs. Transaction costs. Mortgage
Iv

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0
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motorcycling. I have also read that doctors work out what the

Co ay
a

M anc elch May nan o W itio ate


costs. Real estate tax. Uninsured potential losses. Capital loss if

o
ce

t
c

, M Fi Ivo dit
value of all the proteins in your body are, which comes out to

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The two primary goals of this first part of the book of stocks and bonds. The popular Gordon dividend
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perfect market—one with no taxes, no transaction costs, no perpetuity formula. Mortgages and other bonds are
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disagreements, and no limits as to the number of sellers good applications of pricing using the annuities for-
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messy real world.


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next year, growing by 3% per year forever, then what


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should its stock price be? What is the monthly pay-


What You Want to Learn in this Part
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ment for a $300,000 mortgage bond if the interest
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how 1-year returns translate into multiyear returns


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value.” flow and two return inflows, how would you compute
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Typical questions: If you earn 5% per year, how much a “rate of return”? Can you accept projects whose
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will you earn over 10 years? If you earn 100% over rates of return are above their cost of capital? How
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10 years, how much will you earn per year? What is bad is it when you use incorrect estimates—as you
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inevitably will—in your calculations? What are the


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the value of a project that will deliver $1,000,000 in


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10 years? Should you buy this project if it costs you big problems with a rule that accepts those projects
7

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that return money most quickly?


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decision?
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economy-wide interest rate remains constant. You may pay 1% per year, while 30-year investments may
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maturity? How can you value projects if appropriate that this chapter explains is the difference between
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Present Value

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The Mother of All Finance

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We begin with the concept of a rate of return—the cornerstone of finance. You can
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always earn an interest rate (and interest rates are rates of return) by depositing
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your money today into the bank. This means that money today is more valuable
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than the same amount of money next year. This concept is called the time value of
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money (TVM)—$1 in present value is better than $1 in future value.

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Investors make up just one side of the financial markets. They give money today

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in order to receive money in the future. Firms often make up the other side. They

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decide what to do with the money—which projects to take and which projects to pass

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up—a process called capital budgeting. You will learn that there is one best method
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for making this critical decision. The firm should translate all future cash flows—both
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inflows and outflows—into their equivalent present values today. Adding in the cash
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flow today gives the net present value, or NPV. The firm should take all projects that
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have positive net present values and reject all projects that have negative net present
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values.
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This all sounds more complex than it is, so we’d better get started.
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2.1 The Basic Scenario


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As promised, we begin with the simplest possible scenario. In finance, this means that we assume

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We start with a so-called


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perfect market.
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• There are so many buyers and sellers (investors and firms) in the market that the presence
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or absence of just one (or a few) individuals does not have an influence on the price.
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The perfect market allows us to focus on the basic concepts in their purest forms, without messy
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real-world factors complicating the exposition. We will use these assumptions as our sketch of
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how financial markets operate, though not necessarily how firms’ product markets work. You
17

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7. h Ed orat 017

will learn in Chapter 11 how to operate in a world that is not perfect. (This will be a lot messier.)
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or
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In this chapter, we will make three additional assumptions (that are not required for a market
ay

In early chapters only, we


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to be considered “perfect”) to further simplify the world:


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add even stronger


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• The interest rate per period is the same. assumptions.


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• There is no inflation.

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• There is no risk or uncertainty. You have perfect foresight.

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Of course, this financial utopia is unrealistic. However, the tools that you will learn in this chapter

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will also work in later chapters, where the world becomes not only progressively more realistic
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but also more difficult. Conversely, if any tool does not give the right answer in our simple world,
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it would surely make no sense in a more realistic one. And, as you will see, the tools have validity

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even in the messy real world.
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Q 2.1. What are the four perfect market assumptions?

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2.2 Loans and Bonds
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The material in this chapter is easiest to explain in the context of bonds and loans. A loan is the
17

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Finance jargon: interest,

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commitment of a borrower to pay a predetermined amount of cash at one or more predetermined
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loan, bond, xed income,

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times in the future (the final one called maturity), usually in exchange for cash upfront today.
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maturity.
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Loosely speaking, the difference between the money lent and the money paid back is the interest
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that the lender earns. A bond is a particular kind of loan, so named because it “binds” the
y

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borrower to pay money. Thus, for an investor, “buying a bond” is the same as “extending a loan.”

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7.
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or

Bond buying is the process of giving cash today and receiving a binding promise for money in

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the future. Similarly, from the firm’s point of view, it is “giving a bond,” “issuing a bond,” or

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(
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“selling a bond.” Loans and bonds are also sometimes called fixed income securities, because

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they promise a fixed amount of payments to the holder of the bond.


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You should view a bond as just another type of investment project—money goes in, and
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Why learn bonds rst?


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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


money comes out. You could slap the name “corporate project” instead of “bond” on the cash
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Because they are easiest.

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7.

flows in the examples in this chapter, and nothing would change. In Chapter 5, you will learn
7.
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.

more about Treasuries, which are bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. The beauty of such bonds is
1

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that you know exactly what your cash flows will be. (Despite Washington’s dysfunction, we will
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assume that our Treasury cannot default.) Besides, much more capital in the economy is tied up
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2

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in bonds and loans than is tied up in stocks, so understanding bonds well is very useful in itself.
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You already know that the net return on a loan is called interest, and that the rate of return
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Interest rates: limited

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on a loan is called the interest rate—though we will soon firm up your knowledge about interest
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upside. Rates of return:


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rates. One difference between an interest payment and a noninterest payment is that the

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arbitrary upside.
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former usually has a maximum payment, whereas the latter can have unlimited upside potential.
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However, not every rate of return is an interest rate. For example, an investment in a lottery
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ticket is not a loan, so it does not offer an interest rate, just a rate of return. In real life, its payoff
rp

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is uncertain—it could be anything from zero to an unlimited amount. The same applies to stocks
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and many corporate projects. Many of our examples use the phrase “interest rate,” even though
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the examples almost always work for any other rates of return, too.
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Is there any difference between buying a bond for $1,000 and putting $1,000 into a bank
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Bond: de ned by payment


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savings account? Yes, a small one. The bond is defined by its future promised payoffs—say,
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next year. Savings: de ned


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$1,100 next year—and the bond’s value and price today are based on these future payoffs. But
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by deposit this year.


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as the bond owner, you know exactly how much you will receive next year. An investment in a
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y
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bank savings account is defined by its investment today. The interest rate can and will change
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M

every day, so you do not know what you will end up with next year. The exact amount depends
17

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.

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7. h Ed orat 017

on future interest rates. For example, it could be $1,080 (if interest rates decrease) or $1,120 (if
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interest rates increase).


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2.3. Returns, Net Returns, and Rates of Return 13

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If you want, you can think of a savings account as a sequence of consecutive 1-day bonds:

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A bank savings account is

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When you deposit money, you buy a 1-day bond, for which you know the interest rate this one
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like a sequence of 1-day

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day in advance, and the money automatically gets reinvested tomorrow into another bond with bonds.

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whatever the interest rate will be tomorrow.
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Q 2.2. Is a deposit into a savings account more like a long-term bond investment or a series of

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short-term bond investments?
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A Question of Principal

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Who were the world’s first financiers? Candidates are the Babylonian Egibi family (7th Century BCE), the Athenian Pasion
(

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Iv

r
0
e

Co ay
(4th), or many Ancient Egyptians (1st). The latter even had a check-writing system! Of course, moneylenders were never
a

M anc elch May nan o W itio ate

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ce

t
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, M Fi Ivo dit
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popular—a fact that readers of the New Testament or the Koran already know. In medieval Europe, Genoa was an early

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17 h E or
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innovator. In 1150, it issued a 400-lire 29-year bond, collateralized by taxes on market stalls. By the 15th Century, the first
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1

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true modern banks appeared, an invention that spread like wildfire throughout Europe.elc n) The Economist, Jan 10, 2009

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2.3 Returns, Net Returns, and Rates of Return


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The most fundamental financial concept is that of a return. The payoff or (dollar) return of an
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De ning return and our time.


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investment is simply the amount of cash (C) it returns. For example, an investment project that

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Our convention is that 0

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returns $12 at time 1 has nc
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means “right now.”
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C1 = Cash Return at Time 1 = $12
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This subscript is an instant in time, usually abbreviated by the letter t. When exactly time 1
.

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now,” we use the subscript 0.

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The net payoff, or net return, is the difference between the return and the initial investment.
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De ning net return and rate


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It is positive if the project is profitable and negative if it is unprofitable. For example, if the
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of return.
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investment costs $10 today and returns $12 at time 1 with nothing in between, then it earns a

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net return of $2. Notation-wise, we need to use two subscripts on returns—the time when the
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investment starts (0) and when it ends (1).


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Net Return from Time 0 to Time 1 = $12 – $10 = $2


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Net Return0,1 C1 – C0
iti

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=
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The double subscripts are painful. Let’s agree that if we omit the first subscript on flows, it means
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7

zero. The rate of return, usually abbreviated r, is the net return expressed as a percentage of
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20 4th
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the initial investment.


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2

Rate of Return
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from Time 0 to Time 1 = = 20%


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$10
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Net Return from Time 0 to Time 1


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r0,1 = r1
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Purchase Price at Time 0


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Here, I used our new convention and abbreviated r0,1 as r1 . Often, it is convenient to calculate
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the rate of return as


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el

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$12 – $10 $12

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r1 = – 1 = 20%
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$10 $10
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Percent (the symbol %) is a unit of 1/100. So 20% is the same as 0.20.

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Interest Rates over the Millennia
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7

at
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in
1
Co Ma nan We

Historical interest rates are fascinating, perhaps because they look so similar to today’s interest rates. Nowadays, typical
W

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0
4

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7
interest rates range from 2% to 20% (depending on the loan). For over 2,500 years—from about the 30th century B.C.E.

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4

nc
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2
(

F
1
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to the 6th century B.C.E.—normal interest rates in Sumer and Babylonia hovered around 10–25% per annum, though 20%
(

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Iv

r
0
e

Co ay
was the legal maximum. In ancient Greece, interest rates in the 6th century B.C.E. were about 16–18%, dropping steadily
a

M anc elch May nan o W itio ate

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t
c

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a
in

to about 8% by the turn of the millennium. Interest rates in ancient Egypt tended to be about 10–12%. In ancient Rome,

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7.

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17 h E or
an

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interest rates started at about 8% in the 5th century B.C.E. but began to increase to about 12% by the third century A.C.E.
F

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1

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(a time of great upheaval and inflation). When lending resumed in the late Middle Ages (12th century), personal loans in

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continental Europe hovered around 10-20% (50% in England). By the Renaissance (16th Century), commercial loan rates
at
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or

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had fallen to 5–15% in Italy, the Netherlands, and France. By the 17th century, even English interest rates had dropped
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to 6–10% in the first half, and to 3–6% in the second half (and mortgage rates were even lower). Most of the American
te

(
o
y

,
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h,
h
Revolution was financed with French and Dutch loans at interest rates of 4–5%.
a
p

Homer and Sylla, A History of Interest Rates

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lch
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7.
4t
or

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th

01
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(
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Co Ma nan We
)

Many investments have interim payments. For example, many stocks pay interim cash

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How to compute returns
4
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dividends, many bonds pay interim cash coupons, and many real estate investments pay interim
4
nc lch

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with interim payments. nc
(

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h

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rent. How would you calculate the rate of return then? One simple method is to just add interim
v

Capital gains versus returns.


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payments to the numerator. Say an investment costs $92, pays a dividend of $5 (at the end of
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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


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7.

the period), and then is worth $110. Its rate of return is


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$110 + $5 – $92 $110 – $92 $5
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$92 $92 $92


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C1 + All Dividends from 0 to 1 – C0 C1 – C0 All Dividends


2

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r1 = = +
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C0 C C0
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Capital Gain, in % Dividend Yield


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When there are intermittent and final payments, then returns are often broken down into two

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p

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additive parts. The first part, the price change or capital gain, is the difference between the
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purchase price and the final price, not counting interim payments. Here, the capital gain is the
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difference between $110 and $92, that is, the $18 change in the price of the investment. It is
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often quoted in percent of the price, which would be $18/$92 or 19.6% here. The second part is
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7.
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the amount received in interim payments. It is the dividend or coupon or rent, here $5. When it
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is divided by the price, it has names like dividend yield, current yield, rental yield, or coupon
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01
7
vo
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20 4th

yield, and these are also usually stated in percentage terms. In our example, the dividend yield
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is $5/$92 ≈ 5.4%. Of course, if the interim yield is high, you might be experiencing a negative
i
0

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2
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ä Corporate payouts and dividend


(4

capital gain and still have a positive rate of return. For example, a bond that costs $500, pays a
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yields,
)
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Chapter 20, Pg.555. coupon of $50, and then sells for $490, has a capital loss of $10 (which comes to a –2% capital
t
.I

an elc , M nce

ay
na o W tion e F

ra

a
I

1
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yield) but a rate of return of ($490 + $50 – $500)/$500 = +8%. You will almost always work
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17

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with rates of return, not with capital gains. The only exception is when you have to work with
7. h Ed orat 017

ä Taxes on capital gains,


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taxes, because the IRS treats capital gains differently from interim payments. (We will cover
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Sect. 11.4, Pg.257.


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or
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taxes in Section 11.4.)


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7.
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po 201 4th orpo 17. 4th h, C Ma anc elch , Ma nce elch on) te F
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20
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2.3. Returns, Net Returns, and Rates of Return 15

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01

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Most of the time, people (incorrectly but harmlessly) abbreviate a rate of return or net return

di
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2

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People often use incorrect

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by calling it just a return. For example, if you say that the return on your $10,000 stock purchase
a

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terms, but the meaning is

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was 10%, you obviously do not mean you received a unitless 0.1. You really mean that your rate usually clear, so this is

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of return was 10% and you received $1,000. This is usually benign, because your listener will
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harmless.
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know what you mean. Potentially more harmful is the use of the phrase yield, which, strictly

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speaking, means rate of return. However, it is often misused as a shortcut for dividend yield or
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coupon yield (the percent payout that a stock or a bond provides). If you say that the yield on

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your stock was 5%, then some listeners may interpret it to mean that you earned a total rate

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0
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of return of 5%, whereas others may interpret it to mean that your stock paid a dividend yield
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7

at
a
ä Nominal,
of 5%.
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Sect. 5.2, Pg.82.

in
1
Co Ma nan We

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4

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2
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Interest rates should logically always be positive. After all, you can always earn 0% if you

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1
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[Nominal] interest is
Iv

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keep your money under your mattress—you thereby end up with as much money next period as
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[usually] nonnegative.

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c

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you have this period. Why give your money to someone today who will give you less than 0%

a
in

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7.

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17 h E or
(less money in the future)? Consequently, interest rates are indeed almost always positive—the
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17

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1

,
rare exceptions being both bizarre and usually trivial.

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Here is another language problem: What does the statement “the interest rate has just

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0
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Fi

Basis points avoid an


or

4t
increased by 5%” mean? It could mean either that the previous interest rate, say, 10%, has
2

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just increased from 10% to 10% · (1 + 5%) = 10.5%, or that it has increased from 10% to 15%.
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te

language: 100 basis points

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,
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h,
Because this is unclear, the basis point unit was invented. A basis point is simply 1/100 of a
h
equals 1%.
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percent. If you state that your interest rate has increased by 50 basis points, you definitely mean
lch
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7.
4t
or

v
o
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that the interest rate has increased from 10% to 10.5%. If you state that your interest rate has
di

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01
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(
p

th

increased by 500 basis points, you definitely mean that the interest rate has increased from 10%
Co Ma nan We
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to 15%.

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IMPORTANT
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Fi vo W tion e Fi o W itio ora


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100 basis points constitute 1%. Somewhat less common, 1 point is 1%.
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7.

Points and basis points help with “percentage ambiguities.”


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2
2

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Q 2.3. An investment costs $1,000 and pays a return of $1,050. What is its rate of return?
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Q 2.4. An investment costs $1,000 and pays a net return of $25. What is its rate of return?

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Q 2.5. Is 10 the same as 1,000%?

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Q 2.6. You buy a stock for $40 per share today. It will pay a dividend of $1 next month. If
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you can sell it for $45 right after the dividend is paid, what would be its dividend yield, what
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would be its capital gain (also quoted as a capital gain yield), and what would be its total rate of
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v
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v
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return?
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7.
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Q 2.7. By how many basis points does the interest rate change if it increases from 9% to 12%?
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01
7

Q 2.8. If an interest rate of 10% decreases by 20 basis points, what is the new interest rate?
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20 4th
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7.
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po 201 4th orpo 17. 4th h, C Ma anc elch , Ma nce elch on) te F
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20
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2.4 Time Value, Future Value, and Compounding

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Because you can earn interest, a given amount of money today is worth more than the same

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Time Value of Money = Earn

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amount of money in the future. After all, you could always deposit your money today into the

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Interest. r
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bank and thereby receive more money in the future. This is an example of the time value of
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or

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money, which says that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. This ranks as one

(
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of the most basic and important concepts in finance.

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The Future Value of Money

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7

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How much money will you receive in the future if the rate of return is 20% and you invest $100

y
r
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Here is how to calculate
t

0
4

po
7
today? Turn around the rate of return formula (Formula 2.1) to determine how money will grow

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future payoffs given a rate


nc
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2
(

F
1
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over time given a rate of return:


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of return and an initial
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0
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a

M anc elch May nan o W itio ate


investment.

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t
$120 – $100
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20% = ⇔ $100 · (1 + 20%) = $100 · 1.2 = $120

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17 h E or
ä Rate of Return, $100
an

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F

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Formula 2.1, Pg.14.

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1

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C1 – C0

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r1 ⇔ C0 · (1 + r1 ) = C1
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20

=
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C0

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The $120 next year is called the future value (FV) of $100 today. Thus, future value is the value
),
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of a present cash amount at some point in the future. It is the time value of money that causes
,
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a

the future value, $120, to be higher than its present value (PV), $100. Using the abbreviations
,

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lch
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7.
4t
or

FV and PV, you could also have written the above formula as

v
o
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di

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th

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(
p

FV – PV
th
Co Ma nan We
)

r1 = ⇔ FV = PV · (1 + r1 )

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r

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4
on

PV

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4
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(If we omit the subscript on the r, it means a 1-period interest rate from now to time 1, i.e., r1 .)
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Please note that the time value of money is not the fact that the prices of goods may change
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ä Apples and Oranges,


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7.

Sect. 5.2, Pg.82. between today and tomorrow (that would be inflation). Instead, the time value of money is
7.
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based exclusively on the fact that your money can earn interest. Any amount of cash today is
1

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7

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20 4th

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worth more than the same amount of cash tomorrow. Tomorrow, it will be the same amount
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plus interest.
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2
2

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7

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Q 2.9. A project has a rate of return of 30%. What is the payoff if the initial investment is $250?

ch
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Compounding and Future Value


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on
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th
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nc elc , M an
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Now, what if you can earn the same 20% year after year and reinvest all your money? What
v
i
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v
Interest on interest (or
,
iti

. I dit

I
Co

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would your two-year rate of return be? Definitely not 20% + 20% = 40%! You know that you
4
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I
rate of return on rate of
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n
W
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7.
Co Ma nan

return) means rates cannot will have $120 in year 1, which you can reinvest at a 20% rate of return from year 1 to year 2.
an
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Thus, you will end up with


.
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be added.
h

01
7
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20 4th
4t

n
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1
th

C2 = $100 · (1 + 20%)2 = $100 · 1.22 = $120 · (1 + 20%) = $120 · 1.2 = $144


Ed rpo y 2

t
i
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2
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(

C0 · (1 + r)2
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C1 · (1 + r) C2
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= =
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This $144—which is, of course, again a future value of $100 today—represents a total two-year
M
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rate of return of
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po 201 4th orpo 17. 4th h, C Ma anc elch , Ma nce elch on) te F
el

20
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2
Ed

vo
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Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
Condition of repair.
The premises are in good repair.
Biographical notes.
In 1778 John Boldero was in occupation of the premises. His name
appears in the ratebooks until 1791, when it is replaced by that of Mrs.
Boldero.
The Council’s collection contains:—
[767]Sculptured panel of chimneypiece in entrance hall (photograph).
[767]Ornamental plaster ceiling in front room on first floor
(photograph).
XCII.–XCIII.—Nos. 68 and 84, GOWER
STREET.
Ground landlord and lessees.
Ground landlord, His Grace the Duke of Bedford, K.G. The
lessee of No. 68 is Miss Janet McKerrow.
General description and date of
structure.
Gower Street was formed at the same time as Bedford Square,
and many of the houses on the west side as well as some on the east
still present their original fronts.
No. 68, Gower Street, is provided with a bold and simple
wood door case (Plate 106) of excellent proportions, with Roman
unfluted Doric columns and ornamental fanlight. It is a very good
example of late 18th-century design.
The door case (Plate 106) to No. 84, Gower Street, was of
simple and tasteful design, well adapted for its purpose, and typical
of many others in the neighbourhood.
Condition of repair.
No. 68, Gower Street, is in good repair.
No. 84 was demolished in 1907.
Biographical notes.
The occupants of these two houses during the 18th century were,
according to the ratebooks:

No. 68. No. 84.


1787–93. Thos. Gatteker. 1789–1800. Sir John Scott.
1794–97. T. C. Porter.
1797– Mrs. Peters.
In the Council’s collection are:—
No. 46, Gower Street. Doorcase (photograph).
No. 63, Gower Street. Exterior (photograph).
[768]No. 68, Gower Street. Doorcase (photograph).
[768]No. 84, Gower Street. Doorcase (photograph).
XCIV.—NORTH and SOUTH CRESCENTS and
ALFRED PLACE (Demolished).

The sites of North and South Crescents and Alfred Place,


together with the corresponding portion of the east side of
Tottenham Court Road, belong to the City of London Corporation,
and form a part of the property of which some of the proceeds are by
the Act 4 and 5 William IV., cap. 35 (private), devoted to the upkeep
of the City of London School.
For many years before the passing of the Act an annual sum of
£19 10s. had been paid by the Corporation, out of the rents of certain
lands usually called the estates of John Carpenter, towards the
education and clothing of four boys. These estates were popularly
identified with certain properties in Thames Street, Bridge Street,
Westcheap and Houndsditch, and the North and South Crescents
area in St. Giles-in-the-Fields. Unfortunately, no direct connection
can be traced between the last mentioned property and John
Carpenter, who died about 1441.
It seems probable, however, that this part of the City estates
had a different origin.
In 1567 Lord and Lady Mountjoy sold to Sir Nicholas Bacon
the tithes of two closes in Bloomsbury, known as the Great Close of
Bloomsbury, containing 45 acres, and Wilkinson’s Close, containing
4 acres, together with a third close, having an area of 5 acres, and
being then or lately in the tenure of John Hunt.[769] The tithes are
mentioned in the account of the division of the property of St. Giles’s
Hospital[770] as falling to the share of Katherine Legh (afterwards
Lady Mountjoy), but no reference occurs to the third close, which
nevertheless was most probably obtained at the same time. In 1574
an exchange of land was effected between Sir Nicholas Bacon and Sir
Rowland Hayward and other City dignitaries, whereby the latter
acquired the five-acre close in question.[771] The deed relating to the
exchange does not appear to have been enrolled, and consequently
no particulars are available as to the property which was transferred
to Sir Nicholas Bacon.
The earliest record in the possession of the Corporation
relating to the estate in St. Giles is contained in a rental of 1667,[772]
“The Rentall of the Lands and Tenements, sometimes of Mr. John
Carpenter, sometimes Town Clarke of the Citty of London,” and is as
follows: “Margaret the Relict and Executrix of Richard Reede, late
Margaret Pennell, for a Close with the appurtenances cont. by
estimacon five acres, more or lease, and being in the Parish of St.
Giles-in-the-Fields to him demised for 61 years from Lady-day, 1652,
at £4.” Two other properties included in the rental are described as
having been taken by the Corporation in exchange from Sir Nicholas
Bacon, but it is unfortunate that no such statement is made with
regard to the 5–acre close, as such would have prevented any doubt
as to its identification. Nevertheless, scarcely any doubt is possible.
The rental of 1667 shows that the John Carpenter estate included
property acquired by way of exchange from Bacon, and the
presumption of the identity of the 5–acre close contained in that
exchange with the 5–acre close leased to Richard Reede in 1652 is
practically overwhelming. Moreover, it is difficult to see with what
other land the close could possibly be identified. It is quite certain
that it was not in that part of the parish of St. Giles which lay to the
south of Bloomsbury Manor, for there was in that direction no 5–
acre field, of which the history, as detailed in this volume, does not
preclude the possibility of its being identified with the close in
question. It is moreover fairly obvious that the close could not have
been actually included in the Manor of Bloomsbury, since it was in
the hands of Mountjoy.
We are thus almost bound to identify the latter with the North
and South Crescents estate, which, with one exception (Cantelowe
Close), is the only St. Giles property in the neighbourhood not in the
manor of Bloomsbury.
It may, therefore, be assumed that the connection of the land
with the Carpenter Estate only dates from 1574, and that it was
obtained by the trustees of that estate in exchange for other property.
The land remained unbuilt on until the estate was laid out
early in the 19th century. Although the houses were of no
architectural merit, the plan is by no means uninteresting. It consists
of Alfred Place running parallel with Tottenham Court Road, with a
connecting cross road at either end, crescents being formed in these
opposite the north and south ends of Alfred Place.
It is probable that George Dance, the younger, who was City
Architect at the time, modified his idea for the improvement of the
Port of London in the preparation of this design.[773] The former
scheme is embodied in a coloured engraving[774] by William Daniell,
published in 1802.[775]
All the houses have recently been demolished.
In the Council’s collection are:—
North Crescent—General view (photograph).
South Crescent—General view (photograph).
XCV.—HOUSE IN REAR OF No. 196,
TOTTENHAM COURT ROAD.

The land immediately to the north of the City estate was


formerly a field known as Cantelowe Close. In an inquisition held on
20th May, 1639,[776] it was found that John, Earl of Clare,[777] had died
in possession of, inter alia, a parcel of land in the parish of St. Giles,
called “Cantlowe Close,” containing seven acres.[778] The land seems
to have continued in the Holles family until the death of John Holles,
Duke of Newcastle, in 1711, and then to have passed with most of the
latter’s possessions to his nephew, Thomas Pelham-Holles,
afterwards (1715) Duke of Newcastle, for the plan of the new road
from Paddington to Islington which appeared in the London
Magazine for 1756 marked the field to the north of “The City Lands”
as the “Duke of Newcastle’s.” In 1772 the Duke of Newcastle sold to
the Duchess of Bedford and others, trustees for the late Duke, “all
that close or parcell of ground, scituate in the parish of St. Pancras,
[779]
commonly called ... Cantelowe Close, containing nine acres and a
half or thereabouts.”[780]
In 1776 the trustees granted to William Mace, carpenter, a
lease for 78 years of a portion of the ground “in consideration of the
great expense he hath been at in erecting a farmhouse on part of a
field known as Cantelowe Close, and that he, the said William Mace,
shall build proper and convenient sheds and other outhouses for the
accommodation of 40 cows at the least.”[781] It is therefore clear that
the house was built in or shortly before 1776.
It stood about 150 feet east of Tottenham Court Road. The
exterior (Plate 107) was of stock brickwork, with red brick window
heads. The entrance doorcase was of wood, and above were two
tablets showing that formerly the parish boundary between St. Giles
and St. Pancras passed through the house.
The interior had a decorated wood and composition
chimneypiece (Plate 107) in the north front room on the first floor.
The premises were demolished in 1914.
The Council’s collection contains:—
[782]East front (photograph).
[782]Chimneypiece in front room on first floor (photograph).
INDEX OF NAMES AND TITLES.

Abercorn, James Hamilton, 2nd Earl of, 102


Adam Brothers, 151
Alan, 107
Aldewych, 23, 107
Aldewych (Oldwych) Close, 34, 35, 37, 42, 43, 93, 94, 100, 125
Aldewych Cross, 23
Alfred Place, 186
Allen, John, 3n
Allen, Thomas, 108
Allington, Lady, 102
Allington, Lord, 102n
All Saints’ Church, West Street, 115–116
Almshouses in Monmouth Street, 138
Alsopp, Henry, 18
Ampthill, Henry, 109
Ampthill, John, 109n
Angel, The, 122, 125
Angell, Robert, 13, 14
Antelope Inn, 3
Apsley, Henry, Lord (afterwards Earl Bathurst), 149
Apsley, John, 6, 8n
Apsley, Peter, 6, 7
Archer, J. W., 45, 48, 105
Ardowin, John, 115
Arne, Thomas, 89
Arne, Thomas Augustine, 89
Arthur, John, 92
Arthur Street, 145
Arundell, Thomas Howard, Earl of, 44
Arundell, Thomas, 1st Baron Arundell of Wardour, 50
Ashburnham, Francis, 119n
Ashley, Sir Anthony, 7, 9n
Ashley, James, 76, 77
Ashley, Mrs. (formerly Worlidge), 77
Ashlin Place (formerly Paviors Alley), 106, 108
Aspin, William, 89
Aston, Coston, 56
Aubigny, Seigneurs d’ (See Stuart.)
Auchinleck, Alexander Boswell, Lord, 57
Aynscombe, Lily, 84

Back garden, Weld Street, 95n


Bacon, Sir Nicholas, 186, 187
Bacon’s Hotel, Great Queen Street, 84
Bagford, John, 38, 44
Baguley, Mr., 86, 87
Bailey, Anthony, 3n, 9n
Bailey, E. H., 62
Bailey, Jas., 164, 167
Bailie, Jas., 179
Bainbridge (Baynbrigge), Jane, 145n
Bainbridge, Henry, 145
Bainbridge Street, 145
Baines, —, 84
Baker, Ric., 103n
Baker, William, 139
Baltimore (Battimore), Lord, 95, 96
Baltimore, Lady, 96
Banks, Sir John, 7
Banks, Sir Ralph, 7, 8
Bannister, John, 104
Banqueting Hall, Freemasons’ Tavern, 63
Banson, —, 66
Baptist Chapel, Little Wild Street, 99
Barber, Ann, 110
Barber, Thomas, 110
Barber, William, 110
Barbor (alias Grigge), John, 145
Barker, John Raymond, 180
Barker, Thos., 7n
Barkstead, John, 120
Barnard, William, 11n
Barnett, Thomas, 28n
Barnfather, John, 133
Barnfather, Mary, 134
Barnfather, Robert, 134
Baron, John, 125
Barrington, Sir Thos., 39
Bath, Countess of, 75
Bathurst, Henry, 2nd Earl of, 149
Baxter, Nathaniel, 139
Bear, The, Broad Street, 19, 107, 108, 125
Bear Brewhouse, 108n
Bear (Bere) Close, 19, 20, 21, 29n, 30n, 125
Bear Croft, 19
Beauclerk, Lady Diana, 149
Beauclerk, Lord Sydney, 149
Beauclerk, Hon. Topham, 149
Beaufort, Henry, Duke of, 75n
Beaufort House, Chelsea, 53
Beavor, Edward, 75
Beavor, Rhoda (formerly Webb), 75
Bedford, Dukes of, 126
Bedford, Francis Russell, Earl of, 23n, 51n
Bedford, Gertrude, Duchess of, 149, 188
Bedford, Herbrand Arthur, 11th Duke of, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151n,
162, 163n
Bedford, John, 4th Duke of, 149
Bedford Square, 147, 150–184
Bedloe, Mr., 97n
Belasyse, Ann, Lady (formerly Lady Ann Powlet), 137
Belasyse, Ann, Lady (daughter of Sir Robert Crane), 137

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