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Demand for Labor
The Neglected Side of the Market
IZA Prize in Labor Economics Series
Since 2002, the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) has awarded the annual IZA
Prize in Labor Economics for outstanding contributions to policy-relevant labor
market research and methodological progress in this sub-discipline of economic
science. The IZA Prize is the only international science prize awarded exclusively
to labor economists. This special focus acknowledges the global significance of
high-quality basic research in labor economics and sound policy advice based on
these research findings. As issues of employment and unemployment are among
the most urgent challenges of our time, labor economists have an important task
and responsibility. The IZA Prize in Labor Economics is today considered one of
the most prestigious international awards in the field. It aims to stimulate further
research on topics that have enormous implications for our future. All prize-win-
ners contribute a volume to the IZA Prize in Labor Economics Series published by
Oxford University Press, which has been established to provide an overview of the
laureates’ most significant findings.
The IZA Prize in Labor Economics has become an integral part of the institute’s
manifold activities to promote progress in labor market research. Based on
nominations submitted by the IZA Research Fellows, a high-ranking IZA Prize
Committee selects the prize-winner. In conjunction with the Award Ceremony
the IZA Prize Conference brings together a number of renowned experts to
discuss topical labor market issues.
lt is not by coincidence that the IZA Prize in Labor Economics Series is published
by Oxford University Press. This well-reputed publishing house has shown a
great interest in the project from the very beginning as this exclusive series
perfectly complements their range of publications. We gratefully acknowledge
their excellent cooperation.
Winners of the IZA Prize in Labor Economics
Daniel S. Hamermesh
Edited by
Corrado Giulietti
Klaus F. Zimmermann
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, Ox2 6dp,
United Kingdom
Oxford University press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University press in the UK and certain other countries
© Introduction by the Editors, part Introductions and Conclusion © IZA 2017
Chapter 1 © MIT press, 1981
Chapter 2 © MIT press, 1969
Chapter 3 © American Economic Association, 1989
Chapter 4 © Wiley on behalf of the Royal Economic Society, 1995
Chapter 5 © Wiley, 1996
Chapter 6 © GENES (Groupe des Ecoles Nationales d’Economique et Statistique), 1996
Chapter 7 © Wiley, 1982
Chapter 8 © MIT press, 2000
Chapter 9 © GENES (Groupe des Ecoles Nationales d’Economique et Statistique), 2012
Chapter 10 © Oxford University press, 1987
Chapter 11 © Elsevier Science, 1999
Chapter 12 © American Economic Association, 1994
Chapter 13 © Springer, 2012
Chapter 14 © The University of Chicago press, 1998
Chapter 15 © American Economic Association, 2006
Chapter 16 © American Economic Association, 2011
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted
First Edition published in 2017
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University press, or as expressly permitted
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You must not circulate this work in any other form
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Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
Award Statement
of the IZA Prize Committee
viii
Award Statement of the IZA Prize Committee
ix
Award Statement of the IZA Prize Committee
x
Contents
I Daniel S. Hamermesh:
The Pioneer in Labor Demand Research
Introduction by the Editors 1
xi
Contents
xii
Contents
xiii
Contents
11 P
olicy Equilibria in a Federal System: The Effects
of Higher Tax Ceilings for Unemployment Insurance 219
11.1. Introduction 219
11.2. Institutions and Policy Issues 220
11.3. Interest Bargaining Under a Superior Mandate –
The UI Tax Ceiling 223
11.3.1. The Unemployment Insurance System 224
11.3.2. The Firms' Party 225
11.3.3. The Workers' Party 228
11.3.4. Equilibrium 229
11.3.5. Comparative Statics 231
11.3.6. Discussion 232
11.4. Direct Tests of the Effects of Higher Tax Ceilings 233
11.5. Conclusions, and Other Applications 238
xi v
Contents
13 T
all or Taller, Pretty or Prettier:
Is Discrimination Absolute or Relative? 279
13.1. Introduction 279
13.2. Modeling the Nature of Responses to
Personal Characteristics 280
13.3. The Impact of Changing Variance of a Characteristic 282
13.3.1. The Beauty of Charitable Solicitors 282
13.3.2. Beauty in a Dutch Game Show, 2002 284
13.3.3. Economists’ Beauty and AEA Elections,
1966–2004 286
13.4. The Impact of a Variance-Preserving Increase
in a Characteristic’s Mean 289
13.4.1. The Increasing Height of Dutch Men,
1981–2010 289
13.4.2. Varying Average Beauty in the Dutch Game
Show and the AEA Elections 295
13.5. Review and Conclusion 297
14 B
eauty, Productivity and Discrimination:
Lawyers' Looks and Lucre 301
14.1. Introduction 301
14.2. A scriptive Characteristics, Earnings,
and Occupational Sorting 302
14.3. Data on Lawyers and Their Looks 306
14.4. The Effect of Beauty on Earnings 312
14.5. Sorting and the Sources of Wage Effects 319
14.6. Conclusions 326
xv
Contents
15 W
hat is Discrimination?
Gender in the American Economic Association,
1935–2004 331
15.1. Initial Results 331
15.2. Other Factors Affecting Electoral Outcomes 333
15.3. Estimating a Model of the Determinants
of Electoral Success 335
15.4. Gender Discrimination by Whom? 341
15.5. Conclusions –
Implications for Studying Discrimination 344
16 S
trike Three:
Discrimination, Incentives, and Evaluation 349
16.1. Data 353
16.1.1. Pitches 353
16.1.2. Player and Umpire Race/Ethnicity 353
16.1.3. Pitch Location 355
16.1.4. Pitcher Performance 356
16.2. Called Pitches and Umpire-Pitcher Matches 356
16.3. Biased Evaluation When Bias Is Costly 360
16.3.1. Other Matches 367
16.3.2. Postseason 367
16.3.3. Umpire and City Characteristics 368
16.3.4. Gaming the System 369
16.4. The Effects of Biased Evaluations
on Agents’ Strategies 369
16.5. Measures of Performance and the
Measurement of Discrimination 374
16.6. Conclusions 378
Notes 389
References 415
Index 435
About the Author 444
…and the Editors 445
xvi
I Daniel S. Hamermesh:
The Pioneer in
Labor Demand Research
The 2013 IZA Prize in Labor Economics was awarded to Daniel (Dan) S.
Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin and Royal Holloway) for his
fundamental contributions to the analysis of labor demand. The IZA
Prize has been conferred every year since 2002 to honor groundbreak-
ing research in the field of labor economics. Past winners include No-
bel Laureates like the late Dale T. Mortensen (Northwestern University)
and Christopher A. Pissarides (London School of Economics). The 2013
Prize was presented to the Prize Winner during the award ceremony,
which took place November 18, 2013 in Washington, DC. IZA Prize
Laureate George J. Borjas of Harvard University gave the laudation
speech, highlighting Hamermesh’s notorious excellence and eclec-
ticism as both a researcher and teacher. In Borjas’ words: “Not only
has Dan published a ton of papers, but the work shows an impressive
depth and breadth. He has worked on: labor demand, time use, unem-
ployment insurance, beauty, food stamps, the economics of sleeping,
search theory, life expectancy, suicide, retirement, compensating dif-
ferentials, academic labor markets, discrimination, the Phillips curve,
unions, and much, much more. It is hard to think of any other labor
economist who has tackled so many different topics so successfully.”
The ceremony was followed by the IZA Prize Workshop on Frontiers
in Labor Economics held in honor of Hamermesh and which featured
presentations from distinguished scholars. Joseph G. Altonji (Yale
University) presented a paper about the labor market outcomes of col-
lege graduates who entered the labor market during the last recession.
George J. Borjas discussed the latest results from his analysis about
the effects of winning prestigious prizes on future productivity of ac-
ademics. Janet Currie (Princeton University) outlined her study about
1
Introduction by the Editors
2
Introduction by the Editors
3
Introduction by the Editors
Part III “Labor Demand,” Part IV “Policy on the Demand Side” and Part
V “Discrimination: Preferences for People.” Hamermesh’s research cov-
ered in this Volume has had enormous impact in the academic com-
munity. As of the end of June 2015, the number of Google citations
reached 1,081 (Part III), 334 (Part IV) and 1,595 (Part V), as seen in Fig-
ure I.1, panels B, C and D.
Hamermesh’s early research provides empirical applications to the
static theory of factor demand, which is represented by the first article
collected in Part III “Labor Demand.” Such microeconomic theory
was the workhorse of labor demand for many years, but was lacking
empirical evidence until Hamermesh and a few other scholars pio-
neered data analysis. Perhaps Hamermesh’s finest intuition within
this area has been that substitution in the demand of workers may oc-
cur not only between different occupation groups, but also between
different demographic groups. To this aim, he and his coauthor ex-
ploit data from the sharp increase in the U.S. labor supply, which has
been observed since the mid-1960s to estimate the elasticity of substi-
tution between women and of young workers (Chapter 1).
Hamermesh’s major interest, however, lies with the dynamics of
labor demand, i.e., how firms adjust labor in response to large shocks.
This was a question that was of interest to macroeconomists only – un-
til scholars like Hamermesh demonstrated that labor economics could
indeed provide important insights. The remainder of Part III contains
his most important contributions in the theory and applications of la-
bor demand dynamics. In one of his earliest works (Chapter 2) Hamer-
mesh departs from the business cycle definition as classically defined
by macroeconomists and argues that seasonal cycles can provide a
greater deal of data to analyze. This allows him to investigate how fluc-
tuations in hiring compare to those in layoffs.
Another challenge to traditional labor demand models comes from
Hamermesh’s analysis of employment adjustments. His pioneering
contribution (Chapter 3) shows that firms do not respond to shocks
by adjusting employment in a smooth way; they do so through dis-
crete jumps due to the presence of fixed costs (e.g., for hiring). Hamer-
mesh further delves into important aspects of adjustment costs. First
(Chapter 4), he studies the nature of adjustment costs demonstrating
the existence and importance of both gross costs (when hiring does
not change the employment level) versus net costs (incurred when
the scale of employment changes). Second (Chapter 5), he investigates
whether the adjustment costs respond symmetrically to negative and
4
Introduction by the Editors
positive shocks. In the study that concludes the Part “Labor demand”
of this Volume (Chapter 6), Hamermesh and coauthor argue that it
is important to keep the concept of job creation and destruction dis-
tinct from that of worker flow (i.e., hiring/firing). The distinction is
critical since there can be hiring even when firms are not expanding
employment; similarly, layoffs are not just a phenomenon of firms
where employment is shirking.
Over the years, Hamermesh became interested in exploring how the
study of labor demand could provide useful evaluations and predictions
about the impact of labor policy. Many such policies – such as minimum
wages and regulations on working hours – have a direct influence on la-
bor demand. The contributions collected in Part III “Policy on the De-
mand Side” empirically investigate how labor policy affects wages and
employment, as well as the substitution between different types of labor.
The first study concerns the impact of a minimum wage (Chapter 7). Ha-
mermesh’s intuition is that minimum wage policies should be studied
within a system of equations that include three factors: youth labor (the
one most affected by the policy), adult labor and capital (for which the
impact depends on the cross elasticity of demand). To date, his study re-
mains one of the few that tackles the analysis of minimum wages within
the rigorous framework of labor demand theory.
In a further study, Hamermesh and his coauthor exploit the introduc-
tion of an overtime wage premium for men in California to study how
firms adjust employment (Chapter 8). By comparing the incidence of
overtime work before and after the policy enactment, between men and
women (for which the policy was already in force) and between Cali-
fornia and other states (where the policy did not change for men), they
provide estimates of the elasticity of demand in response to exogenous
changes in wages. Starting from the observation that, besides working
overtime, many people work outside regular working hours (e.g. week-
ends and/or nighttime), Hamermesh and coauthors explore the deter-
minants of labor at different times (Chapter 9). The application to Por-
tuguese data allows simulating what would be the effects of introducing
U.S. regulations on working at unconventional times.
Hamermesh also embarked on studying the topic of job displace-
ment (Chapter 10). His perspective, however, has been different from
the mainstream labor literature, which was principally interested in
understanding the consequences in terms of, e.g., re-employment
wages. Instead Hamermesh poses the question about the necessity
and efficacy of policy requiring employers to give notice of plant
5
Introduction by the Editors
6
Introduction by the Editors
IZA Discussion Papers (34 as of the end of June 2015), many of which
are now published in major outlets such as the American Economic Re-
view. Furthermore, he has been an Editor (from 2001 to 2004) and is
still an Associate Editor of the Journal of Population Economics, which
is edited at IZA. Together with Gerard A. Pfann he has implemented the
IZA-SOLE Transatlantic Meeting of Labor Economists – 2015 marks the
fourteenth edition – which provides a forum for distinguished labor
economists worldwide. Over the years, Hamermesh has been an excel-
lent mentor and a source of inspiration for IZA researchers in Bonn.
Hamermesh’s work on labor demand intersects with essentially all
of IZA’s Research Areas, but perhaps most prominently with the “The
Future of Labor,” “Behavioral and Personnel Economics” and “Labor
Markets and Institutions.” Since its inception, IZA has been active in
labor demand research on many fronts, covering this topic within its
many workshops, conferences and projects. Modeling labor demand
in simulations of labor market reform packages has proven to be es-
sential in various policy studies, including Riphahn et al. (1999) and
Schneider et al. (2002). Here the work of Hamermesh has been very
influential. Such research has also generated research on the determi-
nants of the demand for household work through subsidized house-
hold work agencies (Brück et al., 2006).
In 2010, IZA evaluated a field experiment in collaboration with
the Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency in Germany to investigate
the effectiveness of anonymous job applications as a tool for reduc-
ing hiring discrimination. One of the main findings of the IZA team
is that through anonymous job applications, job seekers have equal
chances to be interviewed. Thus, if discrimination about a certain
characteristic exists, concealing such a characteristic in the job appli-
cation may result in less discrimination (Krause et al., 2012).
Recently the Institute was part of NEUJOBS, a large collaborative re-
search project financed by the European Union to analyze possible de-
velopments in the European labor market. Research from this project
shows that labor demand analysis is crucial to our understanding of
policy reform effects in the labor market (Peichl and Siegloch, 2012)
and of the distributional consequences of economic crises (Bargain et
al.,2012). The IZA World of Labor also includes many topics related to
labor demand and to Hamermesh’s work covered in this book, from
the employment effects of minimum wages (Neumark, 2014), to the
discrimination in hiring (Rinne, 2014) and the measurement of work
hours (Steward, 2014).
7
Introduction by the Editors
Figure I.2
IZA Discussion Papers with JEL Code J23
8
II Aspects of Labor Demand
The apologia pro libra sua here must lie in an answer to the question:
Why another book on labor demand? The low-level answer is that
there are in fact very few books on this subject. That in turn leads to
the rejoinder: Perhaps there are few books on this topic just because it
is not very important. The response to the rejoinder is that the topic is
important, even central: A broad definition of labor demand is that it
concerns any decision made by an employer regarding the company’s
workers – their employment, their compensation, and their training.
This broadest definition of labor demand implicitly divides the study
of labor economics into just two parts, labor supply and labor demand.
While this decision may have made sense before 1960, before the bur-
geoning of empirical and theoretical work in labor economics, it is not
very helpful now. There are too many variations that have themselves
been so differentiated that they have now become major themes in
their own right. Thus we need to dig deeper to justify this interest.
In Alfred Marshall’s statement of neoclassical economics (Marshall,
1920) much of the focus in analyzing labor markets was on employ-
ers’ decisions about how many workers to employ and how many
hours each worker should work. The demand for labor was viewed as
derived from consumers’ demands for final goods and services, and
as being concerned with the availability of employment. This view
of labor demand is the one that I adopt here to delimit the study.
The study of the demand for labor has, for historical reasons and
because of the divergence of research on employers’ behavior in a
variety of contexts, become the study of the number of jobs offered,
the hours that employees are required to work, and the responses of
these quantities to external shocks.
Much of Marshall’s discussion of labor demand was concerned with
what, after Hicks’s developments (1932), became the formal study of
11
Introduction by the Author
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