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Giorgio Lollino
Andrea Manconi
John Clague
Wei Shan
Marta Chiarle
Editors

Engineering Geology
for Society and
Territory – Volume 1
Climate Change and Engineering Geology
Engineering Geology for Society
and Territory – Volume 1
Giorgio Lollino • Andrea Manconi
John Clague • Wei Shan
Marta Chiarle
Editors

Engineering Geology
for Society and Territory –
Volume 1
Climate Change and Engineering Geology

123
Editors
Giorgio Lollino Wei Shan
Andrea Manconi Institute of Engineering Geology
Marta Chiarle Northeast Forestry University
Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection Harbin
National Research Council (CNR) China
Turin
Italy

John Clague
Department of Earth Sciences
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC
Canada

ISBN 978-3-319-09299-7 ISBN 978-3-319-09300-0 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0
Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London

Library of Congress Control Number: 2014946956

Ó Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

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Cover Illustration: The Fellaria Glacier (Bernina Massif, Central Italian Alps). The lowest part of the Fellaria glacier
tongue, more than 1 km long, was cut in 2006 from the upper glacier mass in correspondence to a rock cliff. Glaciers
are among the best indicators of climate change, thanks also to their clear visibility to the public. Photo Courtesy:
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Foreword

It is our pleasure to present this volume as part of the book series of the Proceedings of the
XII International IAEG Congress, Torino 2014.
For the 50th Anniversary, the Congress collected contributions relevant to all themes
where the IAEG members have been involved, both in the research field and in professional
activities.
Each volume is related to a specific topic, including:
1. Climate Change and Engineering Geology;
2. Landslide Processes;
3. River Basins, Reservoir Sedimentation and Water Resources;
4. Marine and Coastal Processes;
5. Urban Geology, Sustainable Planning and Landscape Exploitation;
6. Applied Geology for Major Engineering Projects;
7. Education, Professional Ethics and Public Recognition of Engineering Geology;
8. Preservation of Cultural Heritage.
The book series aims at constituting a milestone for our association, and a bridge for the
development and challenges of Engineering Geology towards the future.
This ambition stimulated numerous conveners, who committed themselves to collect a
large number of contributions from all parts of the world, and to select the best papers
through two review stages. To highlight the work done by the conveners, the table of contents
of the volumes maintains the structure of the sessions of the Congress.
The lectures delivered by prominent scientists, as well as the contributions of authors,
have explored several questions ranging from scientific to economic aspects, from profes-
sional applications to ethical issues, which all have a possible impact on society and territory.

v
vi Foreword

This volume testifies the evolution of engineering geology during the last 50 years, and
summarizes the recent results. We hope that you will be able to find stimulating contributions
which will support your research or professional activities.

Giorgio Lollino Carlos Delgado

Preface

Many natural phenomena occur over a wide range of magnitudes. Typically, small events
occur more frequently than large ones. For example, small earthquakes occur frequently,
while large earthquakes are rare. Sixty years ago, earthquake scientists developed a rela-
tionship, known as the ‘magnitude–cumulative frequency’ (MCF) relationship, to characterize
earthquake hazards.
MCF relationships are widely used today in engineering geology to evaluate hazard and
risk to people and property, specifically the likelihood or probability of earthquakes, floods,
severe storms and landslides of different sizes. For example, an MCF relationship for floods
can be constructed for any watershed if a continuous and lengthy record of river discharge is
available. If the observed peak discharge each year over a period of N years is ranked in the
order of decreasing magnitude, from the largest to the smallest, the largest flood has an annual
probability of occurrence of 1/N, because only one such event was observed in N years.
The cumulative frequency of the second largest event or larger is 2/N, because two such
events occurred in N years. Similarly, the cumulative frequency of any given rank ‘x’ or
larger is x/N. When such MCF data are graphed using logarithmic scales, they commonly plot
on a reasonably straight line.
When compiling lists of events for MCF relationship analysis, only events of similar type,
nature or process should be used. Such events are referred to as a ‘population’. In the case of
landslides, for example, the events in each population must be similar in type, character,
materials and mechanics of failure and movement. Two populations that are not similar in
these characteristics may exhibit different MCF relationships.
The construction and use of MCF relationships assume stationarity in the conditions
controlling the process that is being modelled. It is reasonable to assume stationarity in
earthquake occurrence over time, as long as the monitoring period is sufficiently long, typ-
ically more than two centuries. This assumption, however, is almost certainly invalid for
atmospheric and hydrological phenomena, such as cyclones, debris flows and floods, because
climate is continually changing.

Climate Change and Hazardous Processes

Climate change, which can be defined as long-term weather patterns that deviate from
historical ranges, can have an effect on the volume and/or frequency of landslides, floods and
other hydrometeorological hazards. Over the past two decades, successive reports by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have expressed increased confidence
that climate is changing around the world and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future.
The physical processes driving climate change are complex and the models on which the
forecasts of climate change are based are simplifications and subject to uncertainty and error.
Global climate models are downscaled to regional and local levels by comparing output from
the models with historical, regional and local weather station data. By doing so, climate

vii
viii Preface

scientists attempt to forecast annual and seasonal climate changes at scales that are pertinent
to government decision-makers, land-use planners, engineering geologists and engineers.
Even more difficult to predict are changes in (1) volumes, frequencies and even types of
landslides, (2) peak discharges of floods and (3) the severity and frequencies of extreme
weather events. Such changes can be regarded as second-, third- or even fourth-order effects
of climate change.
Climate change affects the entire hydrologic system by changing temperature; type,
amount and intensity of precipitation; evaporation; balance between water storage as ice,
snow or liquid forms; and levels of soil moisture. By the end of this century, mean global
temperatures at Earth’s surface are likely to be 2–4 °C warmer than today, but there will be
pronounced spatial and seasonal differences on our planet. For example, warming will be
greater at high latitudes and in high mountains than elsewhere. Projected temperatures for an
average year will be warmer than almost all of the warmest years in the recent past.
Changes in precipitation are more difficult to forecast, with many areas experiencing an
overall increase in rainfall and others likely to see a reduction in precipitation. Many models
suggest that extreme rainfall events will become more common with warming, although this
is by no means certain. An increase in surface water runoff is expected during the winter
months over large areas of North America and Northern Europe due to a greater proportion of
precipitation falling as rain. An earlier spring freshet due to warmer spring temperatures is
also expected. Drier conditions are expected during the summer.
Although the above-described conditions are expected to produce characteristically lower
spring freshets and summer stream flows, years with severe stream floods are likely to occur
in the future. For smaller watersheds with a hybrid (snowmelt and rainfall-dominated) runoff
regime, a trend towards purely rain-dominated stream floods is expected. Increased tem-
peratures are also expected to influence the intensity of summer convective rainstorms and
the frequency of intense, long duration winter rainfall in areas with temperate climate. These
changes have a potential bearing on the timing and magnitude of winter storms, rain-on-snow
events, spring freshets, the soil–water balance and effects of antecedent moisture on
landslides.
Warmer winters will raise winter freezing levels and decrease snow cover. This effect, in
combination with warmer summers, will cause glaciers in high mountains to continue to thin
and retreat, as they have over the past century.
As noted above, changes in landslide activity are third- or fourth-order effects of climate
change; they are at least one step removed from changes in precipitation and surface water
runoff. Therefore, the uncertainties associated with forecasting the effects of climate change
on landslide size and frequencies on a regional, much less local, scale are large. Nevertheless,
any increase in the amount and intensity of winter precipitation will likely increase the
number and frequency of small and perhaps medium-sized landslides, specifically debris
flows and debris floods. Although individual rainstorms are not expected to have an effect on
stability of rock slopes, increased long-term saturation of the ground could reduce the sta-
bility of steep slopes, leading to major rockslides.
Because of the large uncertainties in estimates of landslides and floods in a changing
climate, possible climate change effects must be dealt with by selecting suitably conservative
parameters during the design of any mitigation, and by selecting solutions that have certain
flexibility with respect to the magnitude of potential effects.

Incorporating Climate Change into Professional Practice?

The primary duties of professional engineers and geoscientists are to (1) hold paramount the
safety, health and welfare of the public, (2) protect the environment and (3) promote health
and safety within the workplace. Changing climate conditions, particularly weather patterns
Preface ix

that deviate from historical ranges, may adversely affect engineered systems. It is the geo-
scientist’s responsibility to ensure that possible impacts of climate change on hazardous
natural processes are articulated in the hazard or risk studies they perform. It is the engineer’s
duty to take all reasonable measures to ensure that engineered systems are designed and built
to properly function under new climatic conditions. This understanding imposes a respon-
sibility of due diligence on professionals to address the issue of climate change in their
activities. This responsibility plays out in two ways. First, engineering geologists and
engineers must consider climate change in their work to ensure public safety. Second, given
the level of awareness of this issue and high visibility of impacts arising from more intense
and severe weather events, engineers may ultimately be held personally or jointly liable for
failures or damages arising from failure to anticipate climate impacts on engineered systems.
The scientific literature indicates that significant departures from historical climate averages
are happening and will continue to occur, thus planning and engineering design must take
into account these departures.
Professional engineers and engineering geologists have a higher standard of care than a
layperson. They have more years of training and experience with geoscience and engineering
matters, and are uniquely qualified to identify and respond to issues that may compromise
public health and safety through their work. This standard of care is currently poorly defined
and is constantly being reviewed both by professional associations and the legal profession.
The concept of ‘reasonable level of care’ will continue to evolve over time, and climate
change imposes a new and evolving pressure on this standard.
Contents

1 Assessing Climate Change Risks Under Uncertain Conditions . . . . . . . . . 1

Antonello Provenzale and Elisa Palazzi

Part I Climate Change and the Mountain Environment

2 Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production of Toce

Alpine Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Giovanni Ravazzani, Francesco Dalla Valle, Thomas Mendlik,
Giorgio Galeati, Andreas Gobiet and Marco Mancini

3 Proposal for Climate Change Impact Research in Western Central

Andes of Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Sandra Villacorta, Jose Ubeda, Lucile Tatard and Andrés Diez

4 Response of Alpine Glaciers in North-Western Italian Alps

to Different Climate Change Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Riccardo Bonanno, Christian Ronchi, Barbara Cagnazzi
and Antonello Provenzale

5 Metamorphic CO2 Degassing in the Active Himalayan Orogen:

Exploring the Influence of Orogenic Activity on the Long-Term
Global Climate Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Franco Rolfo, Chiara Groppo, Pietro Mosca, Simona Ferrando,
Emanuele Costa and Krishna P. Kaphle

6 Effects of Dust Deposition on Glacier Ablation and Runoff

at the Pascua-Lama Mining Project, Chile and Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Lukas U. Arenson, Matthias Jakob and Pablo Wainstein

7 Climatic Characterization of Baltoro Glacier (Karakoram)

and Northern Pakistan from In-situ Stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Palazzi Elisa, Tahir Adnan Ahmad, Cristofanelli Paolo,
Vuillermoz Elisa and Provenzale Antonello

8 Current Status and Future Projections of the Snow Depth

in the Third Pole from CMIP5 Global Climate Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Terzago Silvia, Von Hardenberg Jost, Palazzi Elisa
and Provenzale Antonello

xi
xii Contents

9 Hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin Under Potential Climate

Change Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Andrea Soncini, Daniele Bocchiola, G. Confortola, E. Nana, A. Bianchi,
R. Rosso, G. Diolaiuti, C. Smiraglia, J. von Hardenberg, E. Palazzi,
A. Provenzale and E. Vuillermoz

10 Assessing Impacts of Climate Change, Ski Slope, Snow

and Hydraulic Engineering on Slope Stability in Ski Resorts
(French and Italian Alps) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Carmen de Jong, Gloria Carletti and Franco Previtali

11 How Snow and Its Physical Properties Change in a Changing

Climate Alpine Context? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Fratianni Simona, Terzago Silvia, Acquaotta Fiorella, Faletto Mattia,
Garzena Diego, Prola Maria Cristina and Barbero Secondo

12 Air Temperature Thresholds to Assess Snow Melt at the Forni

Glacier Surface (Italian Alps) in the April–June Period:
A Contribution to the Application of Temperature Index Models . . . . . . . 61
Senese Antonella, Vuillermoz Elisa, Azzoni Roberto Sergio,
Verza Gian Pietro, Smiraglia Claudio and Diolaiuti Guglielmina

13 A System for Assessing the Past, Present and Future

of Glacial Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Marta Chiarle, Guido Nigrelli and Antonello Provenzale

14 The Case Study of the Changri Nup Glacier (Nepal, Himalaya)

to Understand Atmospheric Dynamics and Ongoing
Cryosphere Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Vuillermoz Elisa, Senese Antonella, Diolaiuti Guglielmina,
Smiraglia Claudio, Cristofanelli Paolo, Marinoni Angela,
Gian Pietro Verza and Bonasoni Paolo

15 Temperature Analysis on the North-Western Italian Alps Through

the Use of Satellite Images and Ground-Based Meteorological Stations. . . 77
Diego Garzena, Simona Fratianni and Fiorella Acquaotta

16 Preliminary Study to Define a Distributed Hydrogeological Model

Based on Snow Melt for Groundwater Recharge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Muriel Lavy, Marina De Maio and Enrico Suozzi

Part II Climate Change and Water Resources

17 Seasonal Hydrochemical Changes of Water from Alluvium

Aquifers: Drean-Annaba Aquifer Case Study (NE Algeria) . . . . . . . . . . . 89
L. Djabri, Ch. Fehdi, A. Hani, S. Bouhsina, I. Nouiri, M.C. Djouamaa,
A.P. Boch and F. Baali

18 Groundwater Protection and Climate Change Predictions

of a Complex Dinaric Karst Catchment. A Case Study
of the Bokanjac-Poličnik Area, Croatia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Josip Terzić, Jasmina Lukač Reberski and Josip Rubinić
Contents xiii

19 Preliminary Chemical and Isotopic Characterization

of High-Altitude Spring Waters from Eastern Nepal Himalaya . . . . . . . . 99
Emanuele Costa, Enrico Destefanis, Chiara Groppo,
Pietro Mosca, Krishna P. Kaphle and Franco Rolfo

20 Study of Climatic Variations and Its Influence on Erosive Processes

in Recent Decades in One Location of Central Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
A. García-Díaz, R. Bienes and B. Sastre

21 Preliminary Study on the Snow-Melt for the Groundwater Recharge

Estimated by an Advanced Meteorological Station . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Stefano Crepaldi, Marina De Maio and Enrico Suozzi

22 Preliminary Results of a Comparison Study Between Two

Independent Snow Networks in North-Western Italian Alps
(Piemonte Region) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Fiorella Acquaotta, Nicola Colombo, Simona Fratianni,
Vincenzo Romeo and Secondo Barbero

23 Improving the MSGMPE Accuracy for the Northern of Tunisia

by the Multispectral Analysis of the Cloud Field from MSG SEVIRI . . . . 117
Saoussen Dhib, Chris Mannaerts and Zoubeida Bargaoui

Part III Climate Change: Impacts on Natural Resources and Hazards

24 Role of Climate and Land Use Variations on the Occurrence

of Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Apulia (Southern Italy). . . . . . . . 123
Teresa Lonigro and Maurizio Polemio

25 An Assessment of the Water Resources Availability and of the Flood

Hazard in a Climate Change Scenario in Tuscany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Campo Lorenzo and Caparrini Francesca

26 Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion: A High-Resolution

Projection on Catchment Scale Until 2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
A. Routschek, J. Schmidt and F. Kreienkamp

27 Prediction of Climate Change Forced Mass Movement Processes

Induced in Periglacial Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Daniel Tobler, Peter Mani, Rachel Riner, Nils Haehlen and Hugo Raetzo

28 Adaptation to Climate Change-Induced Geodisasters in Coastal

Zones of the Asia-Pacific Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Do Minh Duc, Kazuya Yasuhara, Mai Trong Nhuan and Nguyen Ngoc Truc

29 The Alluvial Fan Risk Assessment in Piedmont (NW, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Dario Fontan, Antonia Impedovo, Claudio Costa, Walter Giulietto,
Davide Marchisio and Ilaria Stringa

30 Effects of Soil Management on Long-Term Runoff and Soil Erosion

Rates in Sloping Vineyards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Marcella Biddoccu, Stefano Ferraris, Francesca Opsi and Eugenio Cavallo
xiv Contents

31 Success of Reclamation Works and Effects of Climatic Changes

in Taranto Area: South Italy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Annalisa Galeandro, Angelo Doglioni and Vincenzo Simeone

32 Stability Monitoring of High Alpine Infrastructure by Terrestrial

Laser Scanning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Ludovic Ravanel, Philip Deline, Christophe Lambiel
and Pierre-Allain Duvillard

33 Integrated Geomatic Techniques for Assessing Morphodynamic

Processes and Related Hazards in Glacial and Periglacial Areas
(Western Italian Alps) in a Context of Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Stefania Bertotto, Luigi Perotti, Marco Bacenetti, Elisa Damiano,
Chiarle Marta and Marco Giardino

34 Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Active Recharge

in Coastal Plain of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Giuseppe Sappa, Antonio Trotta and Stefania Vitale

Part IV Downscaling Climate Information for Impact Studies

35 A GIS-Based Tool for Regional Adaptation Decision-Making

for Depopulated Communities in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Yingjiu Bai, Ikuyo Kaneko, Hikaru Kobayashi, Hidetaka Sasaki,
Mizuki Hanafusa, Kazuo Kurihara, Izuru Takayabu and Akihiko Murata

36 Extension of the SIM Reanalysis by Combination of Observations

and Statistical Downscaling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Minvielle Marie, Pagé Christian, Céron Jean-Pierre and Besson François

37 Assessment of Hybrid Downscaling Techniques for Precipitation

Over the Po River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Alessandra Lucia Zollo, Marco Turco and Paola Mercogliano

38 Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES Transient RCM Simulations Over

Spain: Present Climate Performance and Future Projections . . . . . . . . . . 199
Marco Turco, Antonella Sanna, Sixto Herrera, Maria-Carmen Llasat
and José Manuel Gutiérrez

39 Application of Climate Downscaled Data for the Design

of Micro-Hydroelectric Power Plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Niccolò Dematteis, Murgese Davide and Claudio Cassardo

40 Impact of Microphysics and Convective Parameterizations on

Dynamical Downscaling for the European Domain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Jost von Hardenberg, Antonio Parodi, Alexandre B. Pieri
and Antonello Provenzale
Contents xv

Part V Environmental and Engineering Geological Problems

in Permafrost Regions in the Context of a Warming Climate

41 The Landslides Induced by the Released Inclusion Water

of the Frozen Soil in the Side of the Heifangtai Loess Platform,
Gansu Province, China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
Tonglu Li, Xianli Xing and Ping Li

42 Velocity Changes of Rock Glaciers and Induced Hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

P. Schoeneich, X. Bodin, T. Echelard, V. Kaufmann,
A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, J.-M. Krysiecki and G.K. Lieb

43 Geocryological Risk: Conception and Estimation Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . 229

Sergeev Dmitry and Stanilovskaya Julia

44 Periglacial Geohazard Risks and Ground Temperature Increases. . . . . . . 233

Lukas U. Arenson and Matthias Jakob

45 Assessment of Permafrost Distribution in the Mont Blanc Massif

Steep Rock Walls by a Combination of Temperature Measurements,
Modelling and Geophysics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Florence Magnin, Philip Deline, Ludovic Ravanel,
Stephan Gruber and Michael Krautblatter

46 Freeway Extension Project Island Permafrost Section Foundation

Deformation Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
Hua Jiang, Wei Shan and Zhaoguang Hu

47 The Bellecombes Rock Glacier Case Study, 2 Alpes, France. . . . . . . . . . . 249

Héloïse Cadet and Ombeline Brenguier

48 Permafrost-Related Mass Movements: Implications from a Rock

Slide at the Kitzsteinhorn, Austria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Markus Keuschnig, Ingo Hartmeyer, Giorgio Höfer-Öllinger,
Andreas Schober, Michael Krautblatter and Lothar Schrott

49 Landslide Mechanism and Shallow Soil Moisture of Soil Cut Slopes

in Seasonally Frozen Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Ying Guo, Wei Shan, Chengcheng Zhang and Hua Jiang

50 Implementation of Remote Sensing and Mathematical Modeling

for Study of Risk Assessment to Linear Engineering Structures
Due to Thermokarst Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Kapralova Veronika

51 Environmental and Engineering Geology of the Bei’an to Heihe

Expressway in China with a Focus on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
Wei Shan, Zhaoguang Hu, Hua Jiang, Ying Guo and Chunjiao Wang

52 The Deformation Monitoring of Superficial Layer Landslide

in the Northern Part of Lesser Khingan Mountains of China . . . . . . . . . . 279
Zhaoguang Hu, Wei Shan and Hua Jiang
xvi Contents

53 Permafrost Distribution Research Based on Remote Sensing

Technology in Northwest Section of Lesser Khingan Range in China . . . . 285
Chunjiao Wang, Wei Shan, Ying Guo, Zhaoguang Hu and Hua Jiang

54 Engineering-Environmental Problems of Exploration of Mineral

Resources Deposits in Conditions of Permafrost
and Climate Changing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
Sergey Tataurov

55 Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Destabilization in Context

of Permafrost in the French Alps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
P.-A. Duvillard, L. Ravanel and P. Deline

56 Climate Change Impacts on High Alpine Infrastructures:

An Example from the Kitzsteinhorn (3200 m), Salzburg, Austria . . . . . . . 301
Giorgio Höfer-Öllinger, Markus Keuschnig, Michael Krautblatter
and Andreas Schober

57 Monitoring Rock Wall Temperatures and Microseismic Activity

for Slope Stability Investigation at J.A. Carrel Hut, Matterhorn . . . . . . . 305
Velio Coviello, Marta Chiarle, Massimo Arattano,
Paolo Pogliotti and Umberto Morra di Cella

58 Probabilistic Assessment of Ice Wedge Hazard for Linear Structure . . . . 311

Julia Stanilovskaya, Vladimir Merzlyakov and Dmitry Sergeev

59 An Overview of Some Recent Large Landslide Types in Nahanni

National Park, Northwest Territories, Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
Courtney Jermyn and Marten Geertsema

60 Detection of Permafrost and Foundation Related Problems in High

Mountain Ski Resorts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
Denis Fabre, Héloïse Cadet, Lionel Lorier and Olivier Leroux

61 In-situ Observation on Regularities of Rainfall Infiltration in Cold

and Dry Loess Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
Ping Li, Tong-lu Li, Xian-li Xing and Hong Wang

62 Thermokarst Phenomenon Typification Approaches Near

the Southern Border of the Permafrost Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
E.M. Makarycheva

Part VI Exploration, Exploitation and Monitoring Geothermal Energy

Fields: The Role of Geophysics

63 Physical and Mechanical Properties of Rocks in the Hydrothermal

Systems of the Kuril-Kamchatka Island Arc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Julia Frolova, Vladimir Ladygin and David Zukhubaya

64 Geophysical and Geological Survey to Plan a Low Enthalpy

Geothermal System. The Case Study of Borgo Isonzo—Latina Italy . . . . . 341
E. Cardarelli, C. Alimonti and G. Di Filippo
Contents xvii

65 Integration of Geological and Geophysical Survey

for a Geo-Exchange System Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Sabrina Bonetto, Domenico Antonio De Luca,
Cesare Comina and Marco Stringari

66 Groundwater Thermal Trends Analysis in Support to Sustainable

Use of Low-Enthalpy Resources: A Preliminary Monitoring
Approach in Vicenza (Northern Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
Bertoldo Silvia, Mion Filippo, Passadore Giulia,
Pedron Roberto and Sottani Andrea

67 Sustainable Use of Geothermal Resources: Applications and Case

Studies in Northern Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
Cerutti Paolo, Lo Russo Stefano, Sottani Andrea and Bertoldo Silvia

68 G.TES: Pilot Plant for Seasonal Ground Energy Storage in Italy . . . . . . . 359
Cesare Comina, Nicolò Giordano, Andrea Giuliani and Giuseppe Mandrone

69 Shallow Geothermal Exploration by Means of SkyTEM Electrical

Resistivity Data: An Application in Sicily (Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
A. Santilano, A. Manzella, A. Donato, D. Montanari, G. Gola,
E. Di Sipio, E. Destro, A. Giaretta, A. Galgaro, G. Teza,
A. Viezzoli and A. Menghini

70 Geothermal Investigations of Active Volcanoes: The Example

of Ischia Island and Campi Flegrei Caldera (Southern Italy) . . . . . . . . . . 369
S. Carlino, R. Somma, A. Troiano, M.G. Di Giuseppe,
C. Troise and G. De Natale

71 Wells Declivity Temperature Geothermal Field Bora-Sigi,

Central Sulawesi, Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
Suparman, Murni Sulastri and Suci Sarah Andriany

Part VII Impact of Climatological Changes on the Hydro

Geomorphological Process in the Coast Areas

72 Impact of the Climate Change on Adriatic Sea Hydrology . . . . . . . . . . . . 381

Pano Niko, Frashe˛ri Alfred, Avdyli Bardhyl and Hoxhaj Fatos

73 Outlook on Seawaters Dynamics Factors for the Albanian Adriatic

Coastline Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
Pano Niko, Frashëri Alfred, Avdyli Bardhyl and Hoxhaj Fatos

74 Climate Change Impact on Buna River Delta in Adriatic Sea. . . . . . . . . . 391

Pano Niko, Frasheri Alfred, Bushati Salvatore and Frasheri Neki

75 Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395

Diez J. Javier, Efren M. Veiga and Vicent Esteban

76 The Plumes Influence on the General Circulation Along the

Albanian Adriatic Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Monika Burba, Bardhyl Avdyli and Fatos Hoxhaj
xviii Contents

77 The Seasonal Deformations of the Coastal Slopes

in the Permafrost Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
Oksana Maslikova, Debolskaya Elena, Vladimir Debolsky and Ilja Gritsuk

Part VIII Landslides, Climate and Global Change

78 Climate Change and Landslide Hazard and Risk in Scotland . . . . . . . . . . 411

M.G. Winter and B. Shearer

79 Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415

Max Barton

80 Realizing, Monitoring and Evaluating of Georisks

in a Changing Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
Martin Scherbeck and Michael Alber

81 Rockfall Hazard in the Mont Blanc Massif Increased

by the Current Atmospheric Warming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
Ludovic Ravanel and Philip Deline

82 Climate Change Impact for Spatial Landslide Susceptibility. . . . . . . . . . . 429

Christine Gassner, Catrin Promper, Santiago Beguería and Thomas Glade

83 Analysis of Factors Controlling Landslide Susceptibility

in the Aosta Valley (NW Italy): Relationship to Climatic
and Environmental Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
Mauro Palomba, Marco Giardino, Sara Ratto and Paolo Pogliotti

84 High Elevation Rock Falls and Their Climatic Control:

A Case Study in the Conca di Cervinia (NW Italian Alps) . . . . . . . . . . . . 439
Marta Chiarle, Velio Coviello, Massimo Arattano, Paolo Silvestri
and Guido Nigrelli

85 Landslides as Climate Indicators in Argentinean

Central Andes (32° S) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
Stella M. Moreiras

86 Active Layer Detachment Slides and Retrogressive Thaw Slumps

Susceptibility Mapping for Current and Future Permafrost
Distribution, Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449
Andrée Blais-Stevens, Marian Kremer, Philip P. Bonnaventure,
Sharon L. Smith, Panya Lipovsky and Antoni G. Lewkowicz

Part IX Role of Geosciences in Climate Change and Energy Security

87 Rainfall, A Major Cause for Rockfall Hazard along the Roadways,

Highways and Railways on Hilly Terrains in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
M.K. Ansari, M. Ahmed, T.N. Rajesh Singh and I. Ghalayani
Contents xix

88 A Preliminary Cost Estimation for Short Tunnels Construction

Using Parametric Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
Ahmad Reza Sayadi, Jafar Khademi Hamidi,
Masoud Monjezi and Meysam Najafzadeh

89 Impact of Anthropocene Vis-à-vis Holocene Climatic Changes

on Central Indian Himalayan Glaciers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
Rameshwar Bali, S. Nawaz Ali, S.K. Bera, S.K. Patil,
K.K. Agarwal and C.M. Nautyal

90 Design of Ultimate Pit Slope for a Proposed Opencast Limestone

Mine in the Hilly Region of Northern India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
Jagdish C. Jhanwar and A. Swarup

91 Effect of Brine Saturation on Carbonation of Coal Fly Ash

for Mineral Sequestration of CO2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
Ukwattage Nadeesha Lakmali and Pathegama Gamage Ranjith

92 Blasting Operation Management Using Mathematical Methods . . . . . . . . 483

M. Yari, M. Monjezi, R. Bagherpour and A.R. Sayadi

93 Tectonic Consideration for Location of the Kishau Dam Site on Tons

River in Lesser Himalaya, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 495
Vaibhava Srivastava, Pradeep Srivastava,
Hari B. Srivastava and Yogesh Ray

94 Numerical Simulation of High Level Radioactive Waste for Disposal

in Deep Underground Tunnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
Amit Kumar Verma, Pradeep Gautam, T.N. Singh and R.K. Bajpai

95 The Model and Experiments of Solubility of CO2 in Saline with

Complex Ions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505
Wang Lu and Yu Qingchun

96 Analysis of Stability of Slopes in Himalayan Terrane Along National

Highway: 109, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 511
V. Vishal, S.P. Pradhan and T.N. Singh

97 Study of Slopes Along River Teesta in Darjeeling Himalayan Region . . . . 517

S.P. Pradhan, V. Vishal and T.N. Singh

98 Climate Change—Present Scenario in Parts of India; Needed

Preventive Measures and Role of Earth System Scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . 521
D. Venkat Reddy and P.R. Reddy

Part X Slope Dynamics and its Control in a Climate Change Scenario

99 Co-evolution of Soils and Vegetation Under Changing Climatic

Conditions at a Desert Fringe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
Aaron Yair and Ram Almog
xx Contents

100 Integrated Approach to the Evaluation of Denudation Rates

in an Experimental Catchment of the Northern Italian Apennines . . . . . . 533
Francesca Vergari, Marta Della Seta, Maurizio Del Monte,
Linda Pieri and Francesca Ventura

101 Susceptibility and Vulnerability to Landslides—Case Study: Basin of

River Bengalas—City of Nova Friburgo—Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 539
L.T. Silva, E.P.F.F.M. Sampaio, J.A.M. Corte-Real, D.A. Rodriguez,
F. Carnauba Medeiros, B.E. Moraes and D.G.M. França

102 Slope Stability Scaling Laws Within Physically Based Models

and Their Modifications Under Varying Triggering Conditions . . . . . . . . 547
Massimiliano Alvioli, Mauro Rossi and Fausto Guzzetti

103 Slope Dynamics and Climatic Change Through Indirect Interactions . . . . 551
Mauro Rossi, Dino Torri, Elisa Santi, Giovanni Bacaro, Ivan Marchesini,
Alessandro Cesare Mondini and Giulia Felicioni

104 Land Use Change Scenarios and Landslide Susceptibility Zonation:

The Briga Catchment Test Area (Messina, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557
Paola Reichenbach, Claudia Busca, Alessandro Cesare Mondini
and Mauro Rossi

105 Multi-method Evaluation of Denudation Rates in Small

Mediterranean Catchments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563
Maurizio Del Monte, Francesca Vergari, Pierluigi Brandolini,
Domenico Capolongo, Andrea Cevasco, Sirio Ciccacci,
Christian Conoscenti, Paola Fredi, Laura Melelli,
Edoardo Rotigliano and Francesco Zucca

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569

 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Istituto di Ricerca per la
Protezione Idrogeologica

The Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), of the Italian Consiglio
Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), designs and executes research, technical and development
activities in the vast and variegated field of natural hazards, vulnerability assessment and geo-
risk mitigation. We study all geo-hydrological
hazards, including floods, landslides, erosion
processes, subsidence, droughts, and hazards in
coastal and mountain areas. We investigate the
availability and quality of water, the exploitation
of geo-resources, and the disposal of wastes. We
research the expected impact of climatic and
environmental changes on geo-hazards and geo-
resources, and we contribute to the design of
sustainable adaptation strategies. Our outreach
activities contribute to educate and inform on
geo-hazards and their consequences in Italy.

We conduct our research and technical activities at various geographical and temporal scales,
and in different physiographic and climatic regions, in Italy, in Europe, and in the World.
Our scientific objective is the production of new knowledge about potentially dangerous
natural phenomena, and their interactions with the natural and the human environment.
We develop products, services, technologies and tools for the advanced, timely and accurate
detection and monitoring of geo-hazards, for the assessment of geo-risks, and for the design
and the implementation of sustainable strategies
for risk reduction and adaptation. We are 100
dedicated scientists, technicians and administra-
tive staff operating in five centres located in
Perugia (headquarter), Bari, Cosenza, Padova
and Torino. Our network of labs and expertizes
is a recognized Centre of Competence on geo-
hydrological hazards and risks for the Italian
Civil Protection Department, an Office of the
Prime Minister.

xxi
 Assessing Climate Change Risks Under
Uncertain Conditions 1
Antonello Provenzale and Elisa Palazzi

Abstract
Climate and environmental change is expected to affect hydrometeorological hazard and
ecosystem functioning, with possible threats to human societies due to increased probability
of extreme events and loss of ecosystem services. In mountain regions, the environmental
response could be even larger. For this reason, it is important to obtain estimates of the
expected modifications in natural hazards associated with climate and environmental change,
to develop appropriate adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. This goal, however, is made
difficult by the scale mismatch between climate model projections and land surface response,
which requires the use of appropriate climate downscaling procedures. To complicate the
picture, one should also cope with the chain of uncertainties which affect climate and risk
projections, from the wide range of global climate model estimates for the water cycle
variables, to the uncertainties in regional climate response, to the uncertainties in the
hydrological and/or ecosystem models themselves. Precipitation data used to validate the
models, on the other hand, are also affected by severe uncertainties, especially in mountain
regions. This leads to the general problem of assessing natural hazards for different climate
and environmental change scenarios under uncertain conditions.

Keywords
Climate change


Risk Uncertainty assessment

1.1 Introduction
Global warming should not be intended as a slow, contin-
uous and homogeneous temperature rise. Temporally, the
warming of the last 80 years has manifested itself in a
sequence of steps, alternating periods of rapid change with
times of slowly changing temperatures (as in the last
10 years). Spatially, the temperature increase is widely
varying, with geographical areas where the warming has
been up to three times the global mean (as in the Arctic and
A. Provenzale (&)
E. Palazzi
ISAC-CNR, Torino, Italy
e-mail: a.provenzale@isac.cnr.it
in several mountain chains such as the Alps), and other
regions where warming has been more modest (IPCC
2013).
Even more importantly, the effect of global warming is
not solely a temperature increase. The largest energy of the
atmospheric motions and the potentially larger amount of
moisture in the atmosphere can lead to an intensification of
the hydrological cycle, with more intense precipitation
events and more prolonged dry periods. Evidence of this
behaviour is now available, and these effects are expected to
become even more relevant in coming decades (Giorgi et al.
2011).
In turn, stronger intensity of the hydrological cycle
is associated with potential modifications in the hydro-
meteorological risk. For this reason, assessing the impact of
climate change on the statistics of precipitation extremes,

G. Lollino et al. (eds.), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory – Volume 1, 1
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0_1, Ó Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
2 A. Provenzale and E. Palazzi
and the associated surface effects such as flooding and
landslides, is a much needed step in order to develop ade-
quate risk mitigation and adaptations strategies. Of course,
science can help in suggesting the proper avenues, but it is
then in the hands of administrators and politicians to assure
that the proper actions are taken.
1.2 Climate Downscaling and Surface
Processes
To estimate the impact of future climate change on surface
geo-hydrological and ecosystem processes, we have to face
a difficult problem: information on climate projections is
usually provided on relatively large spatial scales
(50–100 km for global climate models and 10–50 km for
most regional climate models), while the hydrological
response takes place at much smaller spatial scales, par-
ticularly in mountain areas and small coastal basins. Thus, a
climate downscaling procedure is needed, especially for
highly intermittent (but crucial) fields such as precipitation.
In recent years, various ways to bridge the scale gap
between climate change scenarios and the small scales
needed for impact studies have been proposed. One option
is provided by statistical and/or stochastic downscaling
methods. Statistical downscaling maps large-scale deter-
ministic predictors to variables at small scales (Maraun
et al. 2010), to produce realizations of the expected small-
scale climate variability. Stochastic rainfall downscaling
(Rebora et al. 2006; D’Onofrio et al. 2014) aims at gener-
ating synthetic spatial-temporal precipitation fields whose
statistical properties are consistent with the small-scale
statistics of observed precipitation, based only on the
knowledge of the large-scale precipitation field. Stochastic
downscaling also holds the potential of estimating uncer-
tainties in rainfall scenarios, by generating ensembles of
small-scale precipitation fields which can be compared with
measured data (Brussolo et al. 2008).
Clearly, stochastic downscaling is not a substitute for
physically-based models, and it is just a way to introduce
realistic rainfall variability on the scales which are not
resolved by physical models. Dynamical downscaling, on
the other hand, attempts at nesting high-resolution, non-
hydrostatic convective models in larger-scale global or
regional climate models, producing a small-scale zoom of
the relevant dynamical fields. Of course, such approach is
much more powerful and interesting, but the computational
burden (in terms of CPU and storage) of these simulations
often limits the possibility of having large ensembles of
realizations or long time slices, thus reducing the ability to
estimate climate statistics.
Thus, at the time of writing, the standard ‘‘climate
impact’’ chain is to start with large-scale global climate
models (or reanalysis products if one wants to verify current
conditions), go through a nested (hydrostatic or non-
hydrostatic) regional climate model, then through a statis-
tical/stochastic downscaling procedure, to finally drive
eco-hydrological and geo-hydrological models for risk
assessment. Such chain is illustrated in Fig. 1.1.
1.3 The Chain of Uncertainties
Parallel to the downscaling chain, we should consider
another important element of the story: the chain of
uncertainties propagating from the global climate models
through the downscaling procedures, to the final risk esti-
mate. This aspect is far less studied, and it can potentially
affect our ability to assess the impact of climate change on
surface processes.
First, we have to take into account the uncertainties
arising from global climate simulations. These are gener-
ated by the uncertainty in the emission scenario which will
be followed—and for this reason we should always consider
different scenarios, such as the currently utilized RCP4.5,
RCP8.5 and so on—but also by the natural variability of
climate and of its numerical representations for a given
scenario (see for example Provenzale 2014).
Figure 1.2 shows the time series of surface mean winter
temperature, spatially-averaged over the Hindu-Kush Ka-
rakoram area in Asia, as simulated by an ensemble of global
climate models from the CMIP5 initiative (http://
cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). The black line represents the
average over all model results for the historical period, the
blue and red lines represent the average over all models for
the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios respectively, and
the pink and green lines represent the data from CRU and
GHCN respectively. The pale grey lines represent the out-
puts of the individual models, and their spread indicates the
range of model responses.
From this figure, some interesting facts emerge: (1) there
is not much agreement between the two observational data-
sets (even though they do measure exactly the same quantity:
surface temperature for CRU and 2 m air temperature for
GHCN); (2) most models predict a cooler climate than
observed today (the so-called ‘‘cold bias’’), and (3) the
average winter temperature displays a difference of up to 10°
between the different models. Clearly, both issues are seri-
ous, and require further work on climate models—something
that most workers in this field are aware of. On the other
hand, even the validation of model results on measured
data is difficult, especially in the case of precipitation, since
1 Assessing Climate Change Risks Under Uncertain Conditions 3

Fig. 1.1 The climate

downscaling chain for Global climate model
precipitation

Regional climate model

Statistical/stochastic downscaling

Impact on eco-hydrological processes

in certain regions such as the Karakoram-Himalayan But if we are interested in driving a downscaling/impact
chain the different datasets provide rather different views chain with such models, what should we do? Often, what is
and a definite ‘‘ground truth’’ is not available (Palazzi done is to use some form of ‘‘bias correction’’: we nor-
et al. 2013). malize the model output to the currently observed values
4 A. Provenzale and E. Palazzi
Fig. 1.2 Average winter temperature, as a function of time, for the
area of the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) in Asia, as simulated by a
suite of global climate models from the CMIP5 initiative. The meaning
of the different lines is discussed in the text
(of temperature or precipitation), and then we simply look
at the anomaly, that is, at the difference between the model-
generated values for the future and those for today. This
procedure is simple, and widely used, but it is not devoid of
danger. For example, a cold bias affects the saturation water
vapour pressure in the atmosphere (where temperature
enters nonlinearly and not as an anomaly), with possibly
serious consequences for the correct reproduction of the
hydrological cycle. For this reason, we cannot take climate
model outputs at face value and simply bias-correct them,
but we should be aware of the spread in model behaviours
and of its potential implications.
When nesting a regional model for a specific area in the
output of a global climate simulation, one drives the
regional model by the boundary conditions provided by
the global model. But then, what is the effect of uncer-
tainties in such boundary values and how such uncertainties
propagate in the regional model? That is, what is the sen-
sitivity of the regional model to changes in boundary
conditions? Such issue has been explored for specific cases
(see for example the Arctic case considered by Rinke and
Dethloff 2000), and should not be forgotten when working
with nested regional models. In addition, regional models
themselves can add their own uncertainty and unpredict-
ability, which is often difficult to quantify.
The statistical/stochastic downscaling adds its own
uncertainties, mainly related to the fact that statistical
relationships and stochastic realizations do not provide a
single time series of temperature or precipitation in the
location of interest, but rather give an ensemble of possible
time histories, all compatible with the constraints imposed
by the climate models at the larger scales. An interesting
point is to determine how the uncertainty range introduced
by the downscaling compares with that associated with the
ensemble of climate models. The question is not simple and
must be carefully disentangled, see for example von
Hardenberg at al. (2007) for a similar problem in a mete-
orological framework.
Finally, we have the uncertainty coming from the imperfect
knowledge of the model for surface processes, such as the
form and parameter values for a semi-distributed hydrological
model, or the soil and vegetation parameters in an eco-
hydrological model. The relevance of such uncertainty varies
with the model and the processes considered, and it could
either be larger or smaller than the uncertainty propagated
through the chain till this point. In such conditions, one should
also consider the sensitivity of a given surface process model
to variations in the driving factors. An example of the
assessment of the sensitivity of a hydrological model to
variations in the parameters of the stochastic downscaling
procedure is discussed in Gabellani et al. (2007).
1.4 Final Remarks
Assessing the effects of climate change on surface geo-
eco-hydrological processes, and estimating the associated
risks, is currently one of the most important challenges for
the Geosciences. This challenge involves important con-
ceptual aspects, such as cross-scale interactions and down-
scaling methods, and it has crucial societal implications.
However, several sources of uncertainty contribute to make
this endeavour rather complex. In particular, we cannot
provide useful estimates of the surface response and of the
potential risks if we do not include a quantitative assess-
ment of the uncertainty on the estimates. As seen above, the
different sources of uncertainty all potentially contribute to
affect the final result, and they should be carefully quanti-
fied and weighted. Most current impact assessments include
the use of different scenarios, and many take into account
model variability by considering an ensemble of model
behaviours. However, this is often not enough, as other
uncertainty sources are at play. On the other hand, it can be
difficult from a practical point of view to build ensembles of
ensembles of ensembles of realizations taking into account
all possible uncertainties and their propagation across
scales, and new, more refined, ingenious and synthetic
approaches should be developed.
For these reasons, the assessment of climate change
impacts on surface processes is not just an automated pro-
cedure based on the blind applications of models driven by
other models, but it is, in all respect, an intriguing, chal-
lenging and difficult scientific endeavour. It is, in addition, a
topic having extremely important practical implications, as
it is at the base of the development of knowledge-based risk
1 Assessing Climate Change Risks Under Uncertain Conditions
mitigation and adaptation strategies. Such topic deserves the
establishment of national and international programs
devoted to provide risk assessments in an uncertain future.
References
IPCC (2013) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Approved Summary for
Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://
www.ipcc.ch
Brussolo E, von Hardenberg J, Ferraris L, Rebora N, Provenzale A
(2008) Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts via
stochastic downscaling. J Hydrometeorology 9:1084–1094
D’Onofrio D, Palazzi E, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A, Calmanti S
(2014) Stochastic rainfall downscaling of climate models. J Hydro-
meteorology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-096.1
Gabellani S, Boni G, Ferraris L, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A
(2007) Propagation of uncertainty from rainfall to runoff: a case
study with a stochastic rainfall generator. Adv Water Resour
30:2061–2071
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Y (2011) Higher hydroclimatic intensity with global warming.
J Climate 24:5309–5324
von Hardenberg J, Ferraris L, Rebora N, Provenzale A (2007)
Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling. Nonlinear
Processes Geophys 14:193–199
Maraun D et al (2010) Precipitation downscaling under climate
change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical
models and the end user. Rev Geophys 48:RG3003. doi:10.1029/
2009RG000314
Palazzi E, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A (2013) Precipitation in the
Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya: observations and future sce-
narios. J. Geophys Res Atmos 118:85–100. doi:10.1029/
2012JD018697
Provenzale A (2014) Climate models. Rend Lincei 25:49–58
Rebora N, Ferraris L, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A (2006)
RainFARM: rainfall downscaling by a filtered autoregressive
model. J Hydrometeorology 7:724–738
Rinke A, Dethloff K (2000) On the sensitivity of a regional Arctic
climate model to initial and boundary conditions. Clim Res
14:101–113

Climate Change and the Mountain Environment
Convener: Dr Antonello Provenzale—Co-conveners: Elisa
Vuillermoz
Mountains are ‘‘sentinels of climate change’’ because
they respond rapidly and intensely to climatic and envi-
ronmental modifications. Mountain areas are the ‘‘water
towers’’ of entire regions: climatic and environmental
alterations in the hydrological cycle in high mountains can
significantly affect the availability of water resources for
energy production, agriculture, economy, urban settlements
and societies in the surrounding regions. It is therefore
Part I
essential to increase our knowledge of the current and
expected modifications in high mountains, and use this
knowledge to assess possible changes in hydrogeological
hazard, to develop sustainable adaptation strategies and to
improve the quality of life of the people living in the
mountains. We welcome contributions on all aspects of
climate change impacts in mountain regions, with special
attention to those papers that deal with engineering geology,
risk assessment and the management of infrastructures in
high-elevation areas.
 Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower
Production of Toce Alpine Basin 2
Giovanni Ravazzani, Francesco Dalla Valle, Thomas Mendlik,
Giorgio Galeati, Andreas Gobiet and Marco Mancini

Abstract
The aim of the presented study is to assess the impacts of climate change on hydropower
production of the Toce alpine river basin, in Italy. A model of the hydropower system was
driven by discharge time series at hourly scale with the simulation goal of defining the
reservoirs management rule that maximize the economic value of the hydropower
production. To this purpose, current energy price was assumed for the future. Assessment
of hydropower production of future climate (2041–2050) respect to current climate
(2001–2010) showed an increment of production in Autumn, Winter and Spring, and a
reduction in June and July. Significant change in the reservoirs management policy is
expected due to anticipation of the date when the maximum volume of stored water has to be
reached and an increase of reservoir drawdown during August and September to prepare
storage capacity for autumn inflows.

Keywords
Alpine basin
Climate change
Hydrological impact
Hydropower production

2.1 Introduction on uses highly dependent on the hydrological regime, such as

Climate change has significant implications for environment,
water resources and human life in general (Beniston 2004).
Changes in temperatures and changes in precipitation pat-
terns can have profound effects on river systems and cause
important changes in the management of water, particularly
G. Ravazzani (&)
M. Mancini
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico
Di Milano, Piazza Leonardo Da Vinci 32, Milan, Italy
e-mail: giovanni.ravazzani@polimi.it
F. Dalla Valle
G. Galeati
Divisione Generazione Ed Energia Management, ENEL S.p.A.,
Via Torino 105/E, 30172 Mestre, Italy
T. Mendlik
A. Gobiet
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change and Institute for
Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, University of Graz,
Graz, Austria
hydropower production. In several European countries, this
source of energy represents an important part of the electric
mixt. The hydropower plants with reservoirs deserve a
mention because indirectly they allow storing electricity at a
relatively low price. Thanks to their flexibility, they signifi-
cantly contribute to the stability of the international network;
to the follow-up of the daily and seasonal load fluctuations;
and to the integration of the intermittent energy sources,
notably solar and wind energy. Hydropower also represents
an important source of revenue for their owners and in par-
ticular for the mountain regions.
Although predictions vary depending on the model, in
general water availability is likely to increase across
northern Europe and decrease in southern and southeastern
Europe over the next several decades (Lehner et al. 2005).
How these widespread trends will effect hydropower pro-
duction depends on specific changes in flow regime and
characteristics of existing hydropower development.

G. Lollino et al. (eds.), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory – Volume 1, 9
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0_2,  Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
10
The present study aims at quantifying the climate change
impacts on hydropower production of the Toce alpine river
basin, in Italy, where 18 plants (total installed capac-
ity & 470 MW) and 10 reservoirs with a total storage
capacity of about 139 million m3 were analyzed.
2.2 The Toce River Case Study
The Toce watershed is a typical glacial basin with steep
hillslopes bounding a narrow valley located mainly in the
north Piedmont region of Italy, and partially in Switzerland
(10 % of the total area) with a total drainage area of about
1,800 km2. A total of 14 major dams are located within the
Toce watershed, with a total effective storage capacity of
about 151 9 106 m3 (Montaldo et al. 2004).
The hydrographic area involved in the case study rep-
resents the upper part of the Toce river catchment. The
drainage surface sums up to 691.7 km2. The altitude ranges
from 300 to 4,100 m a.s.l., with an average value of about
1,900 m a.s.l. and 52 % of the catchment area located above
2,000 m a.s.l.. In the considered hydrographic catchment
irrigation is not present and drinking water uses are negli-
gible; it follows that reservoirs management can be simu-
lated as completely oriented to hydropower production.
2.2.1 At Site Bias Corrected Climate Scenario
Forcings
For meteorological forcing of future scenarios, two different
regional climate models (RCMs) are used, namely a REMO
(Jacob 2001) and a RegCM3 (Pal et al. 2007) simulation.
Both models cover Europe on a 25 9 25 km2 grid, cover
the same simulation period (1951–2100) and are driven
by the same global ocean-atmosphere-coupled model
ECHAM5 (Roeckner et at. 2003) using observed green-
house gas concentrations between 1951 and 2000 and
IPCC’s greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B between
2001 and 2100. A quantile based error correction approach
was used in order to downscale the RCM simulations to
point scale as well as to reduce its error characteristics
(Themeßl et al. 2012).
2.2.2 The Model of the Hydropower System
The hydropower system has been represented by a network
made up with 27 nodes and 64 arcs. Nodes represent intakes
and reservoirs; arcs represent rivers, channels, hydropower
plants and water volume stored into the reservoirs. Each node
is characterized by an inflow time series that describe natural
discharges produced by the upstream sub-catchment. The
G. Ravazzani et al.
model is a simplified representation of the real hydropower
system and not all the existing intakes are represented as a
single node; to keep computational burden within acceptable
limits, minor intakes have been grouped in a single node.
2.2.3 The Model of the Hydrologic System
In order to simulate continuous streamflow, FEST-WB, a
distributed physically based hydrological model was used
(Rabuffetti et al. 2008; Corbari et al. 2011; Ravazzani 2013).
FEST-WB computes the main processes of the hydrological
cycle: evapotranspiration, infiltration, surface runoff, flow
routing, subsurface flow and snow and glaciers dynamics.
The computation domain is discretized with a mesh of reg-
ular square cells (200 m in this application) in each of which
water fluxes are calculated at hourly time step.
The FEST-WB model was subjected to a process of
calibration and validation by comparison of daily simulated
and observed discharge at Candoglia (basin area 1534 km2)
where discharge observations are available from 2000 to
2008. FEST-WB was used to simulate hourly discharge
time series scenarios from 2001 to 2050 in 36 sections
representative of the hydropower system.
2.3 Results and Discussion
Impacts of climate changes on hydrological processes are
assessed by comparing FEST-WB results driven by REMO
and RegCM3 for the decade 2041–2050 respect to decade
2001–2010. REMO and RegCM3 simulate increase of
temperature equals to 1.3 K and 1.1 K, respectively and
increase of mean annual precipitation equals to 13 % and
25 %, respectively. This reflects an increase of evapo-
transpiration and discharges for all durations of flow dura-
tion curves.
Once the model of the hydropower system has been set
up, natural inflows to the nodes and energy value index time
series have been properly defined, the simulation goal is the
definition of the reservoirs management rule that maximize
the economic value of the hydropower production using
BPMPD solver (http://www.sztaki.hu/*meszaros/bpmpd).
Two groups of simulations were performed at bihourly
time step: the first one using 6 h averaged discharge data
from 2001 to 2050 evaluated on the basis of the REMO
regional climate model outputs, the second group employ-
ing discharge data modelled starting from the RegCM3
regional climate scenarios.
To evaluate the impact of climate change on hydropower
production and on the operational management of the sys-
tem a comparison of the simulation results for 3 different
periods was carried out:
2 Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production 11

Fig. 2.1 Average Monthly 200 200

hydropower production evaluated REMO 2001-2010 RecCM3 2001-2010
by the simulation model using the

Energy production (GWh)

REMO 2011-2030 RegCM3 2011-2030
discharge dataset built starting REMO 2031-2050 RegCM3 2031-2050
150 150
from REMO and RegCM3
climatic scenarios

100 100

50 50

0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Fig. 2.2 Average monthly 90% 90%

Stored Volume / Storage Capacity (%)

stored water volume evaluated by

80% 80%
the simulation model using the
discharge dataset built starting 70% 70%
from REMO and RegCM3
60% 60%
climatic scenarios REMO 2001-2010 RegCM3 2001-2010
50% REMO 2011-2030 50% RegCM3 2011-2030
REMO 2031-2050 RegCM3 2031-2050
40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• Period A: years from 2001 to 2010 (hereafter ‘‘reference down during August and September to prepare empty
period’’); storage capacity for autumn inflows, which are expected to
• Period B: years from 2011 to 2030; evidence a relevant increase.
• Period C: years from 2031 to 2050.
Total hydropower production and water volume stored in
reservoirs were compared. Figure 2.1 presents a comparison
between the monthly total hydropower system production. 2.4 Conclusions
Both climatic scenarios highlight a relevant increase in
hydropower production: +11 % for REMO dataset and Assessment of hydropower production of future climate
+19 % for RegCM3 dataset. Production increase is expec- (2031–2050) respect to current climate (2001–2010)
ted to be observed in autumn, winter and spring; in summer, showed an increment of production in Autumn, Winter and
expecially in June and July, simulation outputs show a Spring, and a reduction in June and July.
decrease up to -11 % (REMO dataset, June 2031–2050). Significant change in the reservoirs management policy
Analysis of total volume stored in reservoirs allows to is expected due to anticipation of the date when the maxi-
investigate possible change in reservoirs management pol- mum volume of stored water has to be reached and
icy (Fig. 2.2). Simulation results show a trend, for both the an increase of reservoir drawdown during August and
periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, to anticipate the date September to prepare storage capacity for autumn inflows.
when the maximum volume of stored water stored has to be Results of this analysis depend on shift in temperature
reached, which moves from August (reference period) to and precipitation patterns and amount expected for the Toce
July (2031–2050). A reduction of maximum water stored river case study and cannot be generalized to the whole
may be observed too, as well an increase of reservoir draw Alpine region.
Another random document with
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effective use of the cold yet brilliant tone of the pianoforte in
combination with the various warmer tones of the orchestra, he may
be said to have set a standard of excellence which subsequent
concertos have oftener fallen short of than attained. Hundreds have
been written. The fingers of one hand might perhaps count the
number of those which as works of art are comparable to Mozart’s.

It must be admitted that Mozart was not equally inspired in all his
concertos. That in D major (K. 537), composed in 1788 and known
as the ‘Coronation Concerto,’ savors unpleasantly of the pièce
d’occasion. The themes of the first movement are almost ludicrously
commonplace. Those of the Larghetto are hardly more distinguished,
and the last movement can be recommended for little more than
brilliance. The concertos in D minor (K. 466) and in C minor (K. 491)
are, on the contrary, inspired throughout. That in A major (K. 488)
one might well be tempted to call the most charming of Mozart’s
pianoforte compositions, but that such distinctions are gratuitous and
unpleasant. The second theme of the first movement is surely one of
the loveliest in all music. The last movement is irresistibly charming,
with the sparkle of sunshine on laughing water. The andante
between the first and last is of that sort of music which words cannot
describe. Indeed there is in all of Mozart’s music, as we have said, a
self-sufficient vitality which makes it a perfect satisfaction for the ear.
One does not feel stirred to seek a meaning beneath it. It is almost
natural music. There is nothing labored, nothing symbolic; and it is
almost uniquely beautiful. Surely, as far as pianoforte music is
concerned we shall wait nearly half a century before that abstract
grace again appears, this time in the works of Frédéric Chopin.

IV
The pianoforte sonatas of Beethoven hold an undisputed place in the
literature for that instrument. Whatever the future of music may be,
they can hardly be dethroned. They must always, it would seem,
represent the broadest, deepest and highest dimensions to which
the sonata can develop. Music which has since been written under
the name of sonata has been and will be compared with the sonatas
of Beethoven, has been and will be found wanting either in form, in
content or in the union of the two, by comparison with those of the
great master of Bonn. In the matter of musical value they may be
equalled, in many matters concerning the treatment of the pianoforte
they have been excelled; but as sonatas they will probably hold their
high place for ever, scarcely approached.

Improvements in the structure of the instrument itself have

something to do with their massiveness. The growth of the pianoforte
to serviceable maturity was a slow process, and not until Beethoven
was well advanced in years was he able to secure one which could
carry the burden that his powerful imagination would put upon it.

In the year 1711 Bartolomeo Cristofori, a Florentine, made the first

piano, that is to say, an instrument the strings of which were struck
by hammers operated by means of a keyboard. That the volume of
sound so produced would be soft or loud in accordance with the
pressure brought to bear on the keys by the player gave the
instrument its name—Piano(soft)-forte(loud). The harpsichord, it will
be remembered, did not offer the player such a chance for
expression and for the gradation of sound. The clavichord was
inferior to the new instrument in volume and resonance. However,
sixty years of experiment and invention were required to bring the
pianoforte to the point at which it began wholly to displace its
predecessors in the favor of composers and virtuosi.

Of the many difficulties which manufacturers had to overcome, only

a few need be mentioned. The most serious was the problem of
making a frame strong enough to resist the tension of the heavier
wire strings. This was met by tension bars, by metal braces, and
finally by the invention of a cast-iron frame, not, however, until after
Beethoven had ceased writing for the pianoforte. The problem of the
action was complicated by the necessity for the hammers to fall back
instantly from the strings as soon as they had struck them. This
falling back is known as the escapement, and it was chiefly by
devices of escapement that two great pianoforte actions came to be
differentiated from each other by the end of the eighteenth century.
These actions are known as the Viennese and the English.

With the former are associated the names of Stein and Streicher. It
was a light action and the tone of the Viennese pianos was
correspondingly light and fine. It had little volume and in melodies
was sweet and clear but not full. It was for such pianos that Haydn
and Mozart wrote their sonatas. Both men first acquired their
keyboard technique on the harpsichord, and later both naturally
adopted a piano the light action of which demanded approximately
the same sort of touch as that which they had already mastered. A
style of music developed from the nature of the instrument which
was little different from harpsichord music. Effects of fleetness and
delicacy marked it.

In 1777 Mozart had visited the Stein factories, then in Augsburg, and
had been much pleased by a device with which Stein’s pianos were
equipped: a lever, worked by the knee, which lifted the dampers from
all the strings at once, allowing them a fuller and richer vibration in
loud passages than was necessary in softer ones. This genouillière
soon gave way to the pedal which had been invented for the same
purpose by the English manufacturers. Pedal effects distinguish
pianoforte music from harpsichord music perhaps more than any
other feature. These are chiefly effects of sonority, of combining in
one relatively sustained mass of sound notes which lie far apart on
the keyboard, outside the span of the hand. These notes, of course,
cannot be struck together, but, when struck one after the other, can
be blended and sustained by means of the pedal. There must be
supposed in the pianoforte a tone which unaided will vibrate longer
after its string has been struck than the dry, short tone of the
harpsichord. Such a sustained, rich tone the Viennese pianos did not
have. They suggested but few possibilities in pedal effects to Haydn
and Mozart. For them the close spacing of harpsichord music was
natural. They ventured little in wide combinations, in sonorous
masses of sound.
 Beethoven’s Broadwood Pianoforte.

From a drawing made on the day after his funeral.

The English action, on the other hand, was more resilient and more
powerful, the tone of the English pianos correspondingly fuller and
richer. The instruments at once suggested a range of effects quite
different from the harpsichord. Thus Clementi begins as early as
1770 to build up a new keyboard technique, demanding strength as
well as fleetness and lightness, using octaves, double notes, heavy
chords and wider and wider spacing. This becomes the new idea of
playing the piano. Mozart is judged by contemporaries who have
heard Clementi and his pupils, to have little technique, i.e. in the new
style. He is still a cembalist. Composers have a new power within
their control, the power to stir now by mere volume of sound, to do
more than please or amuse, to impress by power and breadth of
style. The piano becomes second in volume, in quick changing
variety and multiplicity of effects only to the orchestra. Sonatas
approach the symphony in depth and meaning. The ideas of the new
style are spread over Europe by Clementi and his disciples. The
great maker of pianofortes in Paris, Sebastian Érard, copies the
English action.

Beethoven grew up with the new idea of pianoforte music. The

pianoforte presented to him in Bonn by Graf Waldstein was probably
of the light-toned Viennese make; but as early as 1796 he came in
touch with English pianos on a concert trip to Berlin and other cities.
In 1803 he came into possession of an Érard, through the generosity
of one of his Viennese patrons, Prince Lichnowsky. It never wholly
pleased him. His wish was for one of the heavy sonorous English
pianos. In 1817 it was fulfilled. Thomas Broadwood sent him an
exceptionally powerful and fine one from his establishment in
London, in token of admiration. The Érard was given away, the last
colossal sonatas were composed. Even after this piano had outworn
its usefulness Beethoven kept it by him. Even after he received a
piano especially made for him by a Viennese maker named Graf,
strung with four strings to a note in consideration of his deafness, he
retained his Broadwood. Both were side by side in his room at the
Schwarzspanierhaus when he died.
 III
Beethoven developed his technique with the aim of drawing the
utmost sonority and variety from the pianoforte. His demands on the
instrument were far beyond the capabilities of the Viennese pianos.
Streicher, who married Stein’s daughter and carried on the business
of the firm in Vienna, exerted his ingenuity constantly to improve his
pianos according to the demands of Beethoven, finally gave over the
ideal of lightness of action and of tone, largely through Beethoven’s
influence. Beethoven left the harpsichord far behind him. He
conceived his sonatas for an instrument of vastly greater
possibilities. He filled them with passages of chords, of double notes,
of powerful arpeggio figures surging from low registers to high, all
combined by the pedal, in the use of which he was a great innovator.
He refused allegiance to the old ideal of distinctness to which
Hummel, Mozart’s pupil, was still loyal, that he might be free when
he chose to deal with great masses of sound. The quality of his
genius has, of course, much to do with this; but the massiveness
which, among other things, distinguishes his pianoforte sonatas from
those of Mozart and Haydn is in no little measure due to a new idea
of the instrument, which had been born of the possibilities of the
English pianofortes, not inherited from the harpsichord. He
concerned himself with a new range of effects beyond the powers of
his two great predecessors. He found in the pianoforte an instrument
fit to express huge ideas and powerful emotions. Of such, therefore,
he was free to compose his sonatas.

Such works were not, we may be sure, written for the practice of his
pupils, as so many of Haydn’s and Mozart’s sonatas had been. Most
of them contained some measure of the outpouring of his own heart
and soul, sometimes not less tremendous than the content of his
symphonies. Each was to him in the nature of a great poem, an epic;
most have a distinct life and spirit of their own. Into this poetic life
must one plunge who would understand. There is a great mood to be
caught, an emotion, sometimes an idea. Beethoven thought deeply
about the meaning of his art. Colors of sound, intervals, rhythms,
qualities of melody, keys, all had for him a symbolism, sometimes
mysterious, sometimes definite. He regarded himself as a poet,
speaking a language more suggestive than words. In those who
listened to his music he expected an imagination quick to feel the life
in it, to respond to it, to interpret it. Countless anecdotes reveal the
close association Beethoven felt to exist between his music and the
world of nature, of human life, of the spirit rising in spite of fate. Most
are perhaps not to be relied upon. But scarcely less numerous are
the ‘interpretations’ of his music, written down for us by students, by
historians, by philosophic musicians; and all these, welcome or
unwelcome, must be taken as reactions to a poetic chemistry at work
in the music itself. The thing is there, and Beethoven was conscious
of having put it there.

He was intensely conscious of his individuality. He was proud of his

skill to reveal in music his emotions or his ideals. Little of such
aristocracy, in a broad sense, is evident in Haydn or Mozart. They
may seem to have taken themselves far less seriously. Beethoven
knew himself the high priest of a great art. He demanded from others
the respect due to such an one. His spirit rises majestic from his
music, or from a great part of it. It speaks in an unmistakable voice.
One listens to great stories, great epics, great tragedies, all part of
the life of a man of enormous vitality, enormous force. One hardly
listens as to music, rather as to a poet and a prophet.

Correspondingly, his music undergoes a development noticeably

parallel to the course of his life. The pianoforte sonatas alone are
nearly a complete record of the various phases through which his
character passed from young manhood almost to the time of his
death. They compose, as it were, a great book in many chapters. At
times one might regard them as a diary. Beethoven confided himself
to his piano.

He was a very great and an unusual player. His style was, as we

have inferred, wholly different from Mozart’s. To begin with, it was
much more varied. In the matter of runs alone one finds a deeper
appreciation of legato and staccato, and the shades between.
Mozart’s runs are oftenest of the ‘pearly’ variety, detached and
sparkling. Beethoven much more frequently than Mozart requires a
close, legato manner of playing. This, in the matter of scales, will
give them a sweep and curve, rather than a ripple, make them a rush
of sound, rather than a series of distinct notes; as, for example, the
short scale passages in the first movement of the sonata opus 7,
those for the left hand in the first movement of opus 78, and the long
scale passages at the end of the first movement of opus 53. In other
sorts of runs the legato execution which is required makes of them
almost a series of broken chords; as in the final movement of opus
26, in the first movement of the concerto in G major. Even where the
playing may be slightly staccato in style the pedal is employed to
give the runs more significance as harmonies than as series of
separated notes; as in the third variation of the middle movement in
the sonata opus 57, or the figures which build up the transitional
sections of the first movement of opus 110.

It is hardly to be denied, paradoxical as it may seem, that in many

ways Mozart seems to demand a careful legato touch even more
than Beethoven. That is perhaps because of the lighter texture of the
fabric. The pedal is of less help, the fingers must do more of
themselves. But the light runs which add so much to the charm of his
music stand apart from this. They are intended to stand out distinctly
in their separate notes. So, of course, are many in the sonatas of
Beethoven, and the use of the pedal itself is an art of expression, not
a makeshift to hide the clumsiness of fingers. The point of difference
is that Beethoven often writes series of notes which are effective as
a series; Mozart more often runs, the separate notes of which each
must sparkle with its own light.

With Beethoven, too, legato series of chords are frequent; in Haydn

and Mozart they hardly exist. Beethoven’s use of double notes and
chords is ahead of his time. Take the finale of the sonata in C major,
opus 3, No. 3, as a simple example. The staccato chord motive in
the last movement of opus 27, No. 2, the first movement of the G
major concerto, the first movement of opus 81, are but few examples
out of many that might be chosen.
But, above all, it is by the use of the pedal that Beethoven goes
ahead of his predecessors. The building up of great harmonies,
either by wide-ranging, rapid figures, or by massive chords piled one
on top of the other, was from the start characteristic of him. The trio
of the scherzo in the sonata in C major, number three of the first
published sonatas, offers a magnificent example, foreshadowing the
colossal effects of passages in the sonatas opus 53 and opus 57
and at the beginning of the huge concerto in E-flat major.

The extent to which he mastered the difficulties of the keyboard in

nearly all directions and his truly great inventiveness in pianistic
effects, have filled his works with sheer technical difficulties which
must ever task the skill of even the most remarkable virtuosi. He
demands velocity and strength in the fingers, great endurance and
power, flexibility of the wrist both in its usual up and down movement
and in its movement from side to side, a sure free use of the arm.
Skill in thirds and sixths, in octaves, in trills, double trills and even
triple trills, in wide skips, in repeated notes, all this and more he
demands of the player. It is ludicrous to think that certain
contemporaries denied him distinction as a pianist, largely because
he played according to no recognized method. As if any method of
that day or even this could be expected to limit hands that could play,
to say nothing of devise, such music as his!

He practically exhausted the resources of the pianoforte of his day.

Of this he was aware, and his ear, growing ever finer in its
appreciation of orchestral color, was at times tired of the limited
tones of this single instrument. He is reported to have said of it that it
is and remains an unsatisfactory instrument. At times he seems to
have written for it as he would write for the orchestra. In the first
movement of the ‘Waldstein’ sonata (opus 53) he actually wrote the
names of instruments over phrases which they might be fancied
playing. This one instance, together with passages which do not
seem quite suited to the nature of the piano, must not mislead us,
however, to judge the sonatas as orchestral rather than pianistic
music.
Beethoven was thoroughly familiar with his piano. The instrument
has been further improved since his day. Particularly the lower
registers have been given greater sonority, and the instrument as a
whole has gained much in sustaining power. Therefore it is inevitable
that certain passages which he conceived upon the Broadwood or
the Érard of 1820 or earlier are not wholly fitting to the modern piano.
This is especially true of passages in the lower registers. The
accompaniment to the noble second theme in the first movement of
the sonata opus 57 is, for example, unquestionably thick. It is too low
and muddy for the present-day piano. Many similar instances might
be mentioned, most of which, however, prove only that pianos have
changed. His frequent use of close accompaniment figures is
perhaps intrinsically old-fashioned; but, on the other hand, wider
figures would have been less sonorous on the piano he wrote for
than those he used. It is, however, in such matters that Beethoven’s
pianoforte music is, from one point of view, not entirely satisfactory to
the pianist of today. If in other respects it is at times seemingly
orchestral, if successive repetitions of the same phrase seem to tax
the pianoforte too far, that does not take from it all as a whole the
honor of being one of the greatest contributions to pure pianoforte
literature.

It was natural that Beethoven’s conception of music as an art akin to

poetry, conveying a more or less definite expression, should have
great influence upon the forms in which he wrote. The sonata filled
up enormously from his inspiration. To begin with, the triplex form
took on more and more dramatic life. The development is to be
noticed in several ways, some slower to make their appearance than
others. Almost at once the contrasting natures of the first and second
themes become apparent. Haydn, it will be remembered, often used
but a variant of the first theme for the second, much as Emanuel
Bach had done; but making his setting of the second theme far
clearer. Mozart used distinctly different themes, but both were, as a
rule, melodious, different in line but not in nature. On the other hand,
the first three sonatas of Beethoven show a complete differentiation
of the themes. The second and third are conspicuous and show a
procedure in the matter of themes from which Beethoven rarely
departed.

The first theme in the first movement of the sonata in A major, opus
2, No. 2, is positive in character, not lyric, not subtle, though in this
case humorous. It is assertive and not likely to undergo radical
change or development in the movement. That the first two
measures are squarely on notes of the tonic chord should not be
unobserved. The second theme is lyric, subtle, likely to change color
and form as it passes through the various phases in store for it. The
first and second themes of the next sonata may be characterized in
almost the same words. And this is likely to be the case in nearly all
movements in the triplex form which Beethoven will write. The first
theme is likely to be assertive and strong, the second to offer a
fundamental contrast in mood and style.

Both themes tend more and more to have a dramatic independence

and significance. The movement grows, as it were, out of the conflict
or the union of the two ideas which they express. A great vitality
spreads into the connecting passages between them. These
passages may develop from the nature of the first theme, as, for
instance, in the sonatas opus 13, opus 31, No. 2, and opus 53, or
they may present wholly new ideas often not less significant than the
themes themselves, as in opus 10, No. 3, and in opus 57. Similarly
the closing measures of the exposition take on a new meaning, as in
the last movement of opus 27, No. 2, and opus 31, No. 2.

In the early sonatas, where Beethoven is somewhat preoccupied

with the piano itself as a vehicle for the display of the pianist’s power,
these intermediate measures have little musical merit. Such
passages will be found in the first movements of opus 10, No. 3, and
opus 22, both rather ostensibly virtuoso music. In the later sonatas
such objective effectiveness is rare.

The development sections fill up with enormous vitality; and, finally,

there grows a coda at the end of the movement in which in many
cases the movement reaches its topmost height. In fact, Beethoven’s
treatment of the coda makes of the triplex form something almost
new. Where in classical form the movement might be expected to
cease, in the sonatas of Beethoven it will be found often to flow on
into a wholly fresh stanza, seeming at times the key or the fruition of
the movement as a whole. The wonderfully beautiful and long coda
at the end of the first movement of the sonata opus 81 is a superb
case in point.

The remaining movements of the sonatas expanded under the same

powerful imagination. Let one compare the variations which form the
slow movement of opus 10, No. 2, with those in the slow movement
of opus 106, or those which constitute the second and last
movement of the last sonata. In these later variations we find
something of the same change of the theme into various metaphors
as that found in the Goldberg Variations of Bach. It is not so much an
idea adorned as an idea expanded into countless new ideas. The
variations written for the publisher Diabelli on a waltz theme are
indeed exactly comparable to those of Bach.

To slow movements in song form or in triplex form he appended the

codas in the nature of an epilogue which added so much to the first
movements. The adagio of opus 10, No. 3, offers a fine example.
Frequently the slow movement led without pause into the next, more
frequently than in the sonatas of his predecessors.

The rondo took on a weight and significance to which it was scarcely

considered sufficient by the older masters. The rondo which is the
last movement of opus 53 is of huge proportions.

Beethoven frequently composed his sonatas in four movements,

following in this the model offered by the symphonies of his
predecessors. The added movement was descended from the
minuet. In some of the sonatas it still bears the name and occupies
its traditional place between the slow movement and the last
movement, notably in the sonatas opus 2, No. 1, and opus 10, No. 3.
In opus 2, No. 2, and opus 2, No. 3, the movement is called a
scherzo and has lost not its dance rhythm but its dance character. In
opus 31, No. 3, the scherzo has not even the triple rhythm which
usually distinguished it. It follows the first movement and is itself
followed by a minuet and a final rondo. In 106 it is again the second
movement, and in 110 can be recognized in spirit, without a name,
likewise as second movement. The scherzos introduce into the later
sonatas, as into the symphonies, a note of something between irony
and mystery, a strange development from the sunny dances of
Haydn; a sort of harsh echo of life in dense valleys from which
Beethoven has long since ascended.

And finally the fugue finds place in the scheme, sounding invariably
a note of triumph, as of the power of man’s will and the immutable
law of order in the universe.

Thus by extending the length of the various movements, by adding

distinct and significant themes in transitional and closing sections of
the triplex form, by incorporating additional movements in the sonata
group, by introducing forms like the scherzo and the fugue, which,
though they had been found in the suite, had been almost never
employed by the composers of sonatas, Beethoven enormously
expanded the sonata as a whole. But even more remarkable was the
tendency which showed itself relatively early to give a unity and
coherence to the group.

This was an inevitable result of Beethoven’s attitude towards music.

He felt himself, as we have said, a poet. His music was consciously
the expression of almost definite emotions, definite ideals. These by
reason of the nature of the man were of heroic proportions, finding
an adequate vehicle of expression only in music of broad and varied
design. The sonata offered in pianoforte music the possibilities of
such expression. The various movements afforded a chance for the
play, the contrast and change of moods great in themselves. The
length of the work as a whole predicated the widest possible limits. It
needed but ideas strong enough to dominate and fill these limits to
give to the group an organic life, to establish a close connection,
even a fundamental interdependence between the erstwhile
independent and separate movements.

Such ideas Beethoven did not at once bring to the sonata. Only the
last sonatas, beginning with opus 101, are truly so firmly knit or
welded that the individual movements are incomplete apart from the
whole, that the demarcation between them fades or does not exist at
all. In the first sonatas he is clearly preoccupied with expanding the
power of expression of the instrument, with technical problems, with
problems of form in the separate movements. The organic life which
is to mark the last sonatas is not a matter of external structure, of
thematic relationship. M. Vincent d’Indy points to the resemblance
between the first notes of the first theme of the final movement in
opus 13 and the second theme in the first movement of the same
sonata, as an indication of the tendency thus early evident in
Beethoven to give to the sonata group a consolidation more real
than a mere conventionally accepted arrangement. Even earlier
instances may be found of such resemblances in the thematic
material of the various movements. The theme of the rondo of opus
10, No. 3, may well have come from the second theme of the first
movement. Indeed, it is not hard to believe that in the very first of the
published sonatas, opus 2, No. 1, Beethoven employed a
modification of the opening theme of the first movement as basis for
a contrasting episode in the last.

But do such devices succeed in giving to a whole sonata an

indissoluble unity? Hardly. They may make of one movement a
sequel to a previous movement. Analogies may be found in the work
of the great novelists. Beatrice Esmond plays a part in ‘The
Virginians,’ but that does not necessarily mean that ‘Henry Esmond’
is incomplete as a work of art without the later novel. Brahms, it will
be remembered, worked studiously to construct a sequence of
movements from somewhat the same thematic material, notably in
the F-sharp minor pianoforte sonata and in his first symphony. But
more than such reminiscences or such recrudescences is necessary
to give to a group of movements the closely interdependent organic
life that we find in the later Beethoven sonatas. The movements of
the popular Sonata Pathétique have an independent and a complete
life of themselves. It is familiarity with the sequence in which
Beethoven arranged them that truly holds them together, the still
accepted ideal of a purely conventional arrangement.
Somewhat later Beethoven tried experiments which are more
significant. There are the two sonatas published as opus 27. Each is
a sonata quasi una fantasia,—in the manner of a fantasy. The first is
conspicuous by diversity or irregularity of form. It is not easy to
decide upon the limits of the various movements. A beautiful, long,
slow section is, as it were, engulfed by an impassioned short allegro
in C major, from which it emerges again almost unvaried. It comes to
a definite close, but the flash of the C major section across the
progress of the music has left an impression of incompleteness, has
destroyed, as it were, the equilibrium of the whole so far. The piece
is obviously still fragmentary, still indeterminate. More must come to
give us a satisfying sense of completeness. So we are propelled by
restlessness into another allegro, this time a much longer section,
more or less developed, in C minor, clearly a scherzo in character. It
is wild. We have been plunged into music that, far from fulfilling the
need of more that we felt after the opening sections, leaves us more
than ever unsatisfied. There follows a brief adagio, promising an
ultimate solution of all the mystery and uncertainty, seeming, by the
long trills and slowly descending single notes at the end, really to
introduce the satisfying order which must follow out of such chaos.
The final rondo is orderly and stable from the beginning. At the end
comes a repetition of phrases from the adagio, as to remind us of a
promise now fulfilled, and a lively little coda sends us away cheerful
and refreshed.

The nature of this music is such that up to the final rondo its various
sections must, if taken from the whole, affect us as being
fragmentary and unsatisfying. The work is more a fantasy than a
sonata. The triplex form is not to be found in it. But it is accepted as
a sonata, as is the previous one, opus 26, or Mozart’s sonata in A
major, beginning with a theme and variations; and the close
interdependence of its various sections, æsthetic if not thematic,
points unmistakably to the method of the last sonatas.

The movements of the sonata in C-sharp minor, opus 27, No. 2, are
from the point of view of form complete in themselves. Moreover, the
first and last movements are perfectly in triplex form. But this sonata,
too, is to be regarded, according to Beethoven himself, as in the
nature of a fantasy. This is because of the quality of improvisation
which pervades it all, which cannot be hidden even by the perfect
finish of the form. And the entire improvisation seems to be sprung of
one mood, the whole music related to one fundamental idea.
Whether or not it was inspired by the beautiful lady to whom it is
dedicated, for whom Beethoven had an apparently lasting though
vain passion, need not concern us. The music as it stands is full of
the deepest and most passionate feeling. The slow movement has a
great deal the nature of a prelude. Its lyric quality is passive; but it
sings of emotions which must assert themselves in active and more
violent self-expression. And so, passing under, as it were, the
shadowy ephemeral second movement which may veil but not
suppress them, they burst out in the last movement with the power of
a great storm.

Is the unity here merely one which great familiarity with the work as a
whole may account for? One can point to no logical incompleteness
in any one of the movements. Is their union in our mind essentially
one of association? It is more than that. There is a single emotion
underlying the work as a whole, which must seek further and
different utterance than the first movement affords it; which the
second movement may belie but not extinguish; to which only the
fantastic coda of the last movement gives ultimate release.

In both these sonatas there is a unity which cannot be destroyed. In

both, however, it is artistic rather than organic, and this may be said
of the subsequent sonatas up to opus 101. This, and the three
succeeding sonatas, seem almost to be musical dramas, more than
tone poems. They are huge allegories in music. The form which they
take is one which is built up note by note out of the conflict of vast
forces, natural or spiritual powers, rather than human emotions.
Three of them work up to great fugues. The other two, opus 109 and
opus 111, to towering series of variations.

One may take the sonata in A-flat, opus 110, for analysis. The first
movement, in very simple triplex form, is seemingly complete in
itself. Yet there is something mystical and visionary about it. The two
themes out of which it is constructed seem to float in the air; but
there is suggestion in the transitional sections and in the
development sections of inchoate forces in the deep. The whole
movement rather whispers than speaks. It is a mystery. There
follows immediately an allegro in F minor, a harsh presentment, as it
were, of human energy spent for naught. There are snatches of a
trivial, popular song; there is a trio made up of one long, down-hill
run, repeated over and over again, coming down only to be tossed
high again by a sharply accented chord; a restless agitation
throughout, ironical, even cynical. The end comes suddenly with
crashing chords out of time, and, finally, a quick breathing out, as if
the whole vanished in air. It is an extraordinary movement, seeming
instantaneous. One is amazed and bewildered after it.

Then comes a passage in the character of recitative. The whole

mood becomes intensely sorrowful, grief-stricken, tragic. A melody
full of anguish mounts up, the cry of bitter hopelessness, endless
suffering. It ceases and is followed by a silence. Out of this rises in
single notes, pianissimo, a voice, as it were, of hope and strength. It
is woven into a fugue as if in only such discipline were there promise
of victory, not for Beethoven alone, but for the human race.

The fugue rises to a climax, but only to be broken off by an abrupt

and boding modulation. Once again the anguished voice is heard,
now broken with weariness (ermattend, in Beethoven’s own
expression). The section is in G minor. When the melody ceases the
music seems to beat faintly on in single notes. Suddenly there is a
soft chord of G major. The effect is one of the most beautiful
Beethoven ever conceived. And then the chords follow each other,
swelling to great force. Hushed at first, the fugue speaks again. This
time the melody is inverted. Extraordinary mastery of the science of
music is now brought to bear upon weaving a fitting and glorious
ending to the great work. The fugue subject in its original intervals is
employed in diminution as a background of counterpoint against
which the same subject, in augmentation, rises into greater and
greater prominence. The music gains in strength. It mounts higher
and higher; at last it seems to blaze in triumph.

Here is a sonata which seems to have an organic life. The whole

work is not only expressive of varied and powerful emotions, it
seems to build itself out of the conflict that goes on between them.
One is hardly conscious in listening that it may be divided into
movements. One hears the unfolding of a single mighty work. And in
this case, be it noted, the effect has little to do with thematic
relationships between the various movements.

By thus filling a conventional group of movements with one and the

same life, Beethoven brought the sonata to a height beyond which it
can never go. It may, indeed, be asked whether these last works are
sonatas, whether they be not some new form. Yet the steps by which
they evolved are clear, and in them all there are manifold traces of
their origin. There is no other literature for the pianoforte comparable
to them in scope and power. The special quality of their inspiration
each must judge for himself, whether it move him, appeal to him, suit
his taste in beauty of sound. But to that inspiration no one can deny
a grandeur and nobility, a heroic proportion unique in pianoforte
music.

V
The sonatas, from first to last, are Beethoven’s chief contribution to
this special branch of music. Two of the five concertos have held
their place beside these, the fourth in G major and the fifth in E-flat
major. The huge proportions of the latter will probably not impress so
much as they have in years past. It is commonly called the ‘Emperor’
concerto. In the first movement there are many measures which give
an impression of more or less perfunctory, intellectual working-out.
The middle movement is inspired throughout, and the modulation
from B major to the dominant harmony of E-flat major just before the
final rondo is wonderfully beautiful. The subject of the rondo has a
gigantic vigor. The G major concerto is of much more delicate
workmanship and, from the point of view of sheer beauty of sound, is
more effective to modern ears. The treatment of the solo instrument
is more consistently pianistic, adds more in special color, therefore,
to the beauty of the whole. The slow movement fulfills an ideal of the
concerto which up to that time and even later has been almost
ignored. It is a dialogue, a dramatic conversation between the
orchestra and the piano, the one seeming to typify some dark power
of fate, the other man. Its beauty is matchless. It is worthy of remark
that both the G major and the E-flat major concertos begin with
passages for the solo instrument.

Besides the sonatas and the concertos Beethoven published several

sets of shorter pieces, rondos, dances, variations, and ‘Bagatelles.’
They are hardly conspicuous, and, in comparison with the longer
works, are insignificant. The thirty-three variations on a waltz theme
of A. Diabelli, published in 1823 as opus 120, are marvellous as a
tour de force of musical skill; second, however, to the Goldberg
Variations of Bach, to which they seem to owe several features. Is it
possible that a variation like the twenty-eighth owes something to
Weber as well?

The pianoforte works of Haydn, Mozart, and Beethoven represent a

fairly distinct epoch in the development of music for the instrument.
At the beginning men belonging to a rather different period were still
living, some were still at work. At the end a new era was forming
itself. The insulation which seems to surround the three great
composers proves, as we have said, on close inspection to be
imperfect. Still, their work represents one phase of development. As
such, it is easy to trace the evolution of one definite form, the sonata,
under the influences which each brought to bear on it. Similarly one
can trace the constant expansion of the pianoforte technique from
the time when, adapted to instruments of light action and tone, it
differed but little from the harpsichord technique, to the time when,
formed upon the massive Broadwood pianos with their resonant
tone, it brought from the instrument powerful and varied effects
second only to the orchestra.
The epoch has, on the other hand, more than an historical
significance. It brought into music the expression of three geniuses
of the highest order. Each has its own special charm, its own
character, its own power. One should not be valued by comparison
with the others. What Haydn gave, what Mozart gave, and what
Beethoven gave, all are of lasting beauty and of lasting worth. From
Haydn the common joys and a touch of the common sorrows of
people here under the sun; from Mozart a grace that is more of the
fairies, a voice from other stars singing a divine melody; from
Beethoven the great emotions, great depths of despair, great heights
of exaltation, half man, half god, of that heroic stuff of which Titans
were made.