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Toy Manufacturer Profitability Case
Toy Manufacturer Profitability Case
Revenue change
8 6.9 Higher interaction Stocking up high demand
3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% for latest ‘hotshot’
5% 2.6%
toys during peak periods –
6 2.2% games & bestsellers effective inventory mgmt
4
0%
2
-4.1% Monetization
0 Engagement
-5%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E >50% increase in likeliness to
spend on sudden craze toys
Segmentation of UK Toys & Games Market by category (2020) Number of manufacturers in UK Toys & Games over time
# of Manufacturers
594
Revenue (Bn EUR)
564
600 500 483 504 516
2.0 1.57
1.24 1.15 1.10 400
1.0
200
0.14 0.13
0.0 0
Video Game Toys for Dolls & Plastic & Construction Puzzles Card 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consoles Toddlers & Stuffed Toys Other Toys Sets & Games
Kids Models
Evolutionary ❖ Increasing penetration & ❖ Following the retailing trend ❖ Maturing market with too many
Change affordability of gadgets across all industries prioritizing players pushing down scope
boosting early age adoption convenience of profitability
❖ AR / VR and other new age ❖ External factors like Covid-19 ❖ American super brands &
toys kicking out the traditional forced accelerated e-retailing MNCs consolidating power
giants out of business adoption via acquisition of small players
Time duration
Taste & ❖ Tendency of children to move ❖ Other forms of entertainment ❖ Parents and middle-aged toy
Preference
away from Toys starting earlier eating up time & spending shoppers are increasingly
Change
share of kids (music, football..) shifting their focus towards
❖ Social conditioning leading
educational toys
them to lose interest / discard ❖ Attempt to portray toys as more
a given toy relatively quicker ‘Childish’ turning successful for ❖ Especially after COVID-19,
kids nearing the age of 10 parents want to fill learning gap
Time duration through play time at home
33
600 30 42 Toy Box -6% 2% -5%
46
550 48 -10% Operating a wider
74 Toys R Us 5% 3%
84 -15% portfolio with low
500 94 Learning Smaller players stick to scale dampens
9% -8% -20% profitability a lot
450 World limited categories, still
133 -25% might not be profitable
135 Childrens
400 Grotto
-4% -19% -30%
132
350 0 5 10 15 20
Other 0.2% NA
Number of categories in portfolio Toy Box
300
This chart excludes Toys R Us data as its high revenue skews the visualization
250
200 372 Toys R Us leveraging Scale Economies to dominate categories
339 Toy Box
150 306 Diversification hedges risk against
Toys R Us Higher operating cost of large
variability of demand in a stores limits expansion capacity
100 Learning World particular category or segment
50 Childrens Grotto
Bigger inventory management Larger scale limits customer
0 Other reduces stock out possibility and interaction & understanding, hence
2017 2019 2021 minimizes lost sales opportunity increases response time to market
❑ Sales decline - Continuous decline in sales volume & pricing power (2017-21: ~21% sales decline)
Product
❑ Increasing competition - Toys R Us continues to expand footprint impacting Toy Box customer base Engagement
portfolio
❑ Deep pocketed competitors – Toys R Us is consolidating (5x Toy Box revenue) and is supported
with deep pockets Sweet
❑ Blurring of the “Toy” categorization - New entertainment substitutes taking up the mind space and spot
time share of children: Video games, Music, Sports, Media merchandise
Target
What should Toy Box do? Markets
❑ Specialize – Identify attractive subsegments in toys & capitalize on opportunities in niche segments
o Higher margin emerging segments with high expected demand due to underlying market changes
❑ Efficient Operations – Focus on margin & cash flow maximization; Minimize expenses Agility Responsive-
ness
❑ Enhance customer engagement & stickiness - Exploit brand equity of “Toy Box” & top it up with
superior customer experience & engagement
❑ Align org. structure & incentives with new corporate strategy Freedom & Customer
❑ Expand presence to newer markets (geographies) Culture focus
70 64
Large MNC players Legacy local retailers 60
50 47 45
Flat industry growth making Victims of increasing competition & 41 39
40 38
them pursue aggressive routes price wars with larger players 33 31
30 28 27
Deep Pockets allow MNCs to fuel Consolidation in market forces
inorganic growth via acquisitions them towards narrowing focus 20
11
10 4
Can afford to be present across Need to minimize damage by
segments with leading share specializing in 1-2 categories 0
Dolls
Models
Ride-ons
Puzzles
Soft toys
Board Games
Computer games
Other
Toy vehicles
Outdoor toys
Educational toys
Activity
Male action
Toy Box Childrens Grotto Video &
Learning World
Note: The categories of Activity, Educational Toys and Arts & Crafts have hereafter been clubbed under one umbrella category named ‘Educational Toys’
Source: Case data; Team analysis
Positioning Toy Box for leadership in the UK toys market
Where To Play? How To Win?
Educational game Sales (€ mn) Video game Sales (€ mn)
319
✓ Identify & target attractive customer segments &
400
markets
200 261
123 ✓ Position Toy Box value proposition prominently and
128
effectively – Enhance marketing & communication
✓ Lean operations – Focus on core business activities
2017 2021 2026E 2017 2021 2026E (Buying & Selling, Customer service, Marketing)
Margins 50-60% 45-50% ✓ Sharpen focus of business – Narrow the portfolio
o Employ a divisional structure (product line based)
Target group (% Segment Remarks
of population) stability higher accountability, faster response to changes in
market
Educational Toys 35+ age (40%) High High margin; Strong traction in elders
o Helps align & track performance effectively
Video games 15-44 age (34%) High High margin & high growth
o Hire appropriate talent per business requirement
High margin but Toy Box lacks
Sporting merch. All age groups High
capabilities in the segment ✓ Stay abreast of and responsive to market
High risk – High reward; Uncertainty of developments
Media merch. Young Kids Low
scoring a “HIT Toy” is high
Marketing
Key Business
Activities
Market mediation
Internal function • Focus on Customer delight
• Focus on efficiency
➢ Prevent customer disappointment – Clear communication of ➢ Hire talent commensurate with corp. strategy (Niche play, marketing etc.)
offerings; minimize stockouts ➢ Dedicated teams to track market movements & customer preferences
Created on Tableau
Note: The analysis is based on the sample data set of 31 stores and doesn’t take into account the full population of 100 stores; ‘Competition impact’ refers to presence to Toys R Us store in the same location
Source: Case data; Tableau, Team analysis
Summary recommendations & Action plan:
Prioritization framework, timelines & expected challenges
Action plan for moving towards a sustainable profit model Impact evaluation & Prioritization framework
Direct Impact
main segments:
Term
Video & Computer Games; Educational Toys
3 2
Expand store presence to Out Of Town areas
2 Medium - Long
This presents 50% of untapped market
Term 5
opportunity with lower threat from competition
Note: The assessment of the recommendations have been done qualitatively by the team
Source: Case data; Team analysis
Financial implications & Expected impact on Toy Box
Financial implications & projections of proposed recommendations Impact on Toy Box business
Note: Preliminary projections: Revenue growth assumed at 3% p.a. – Conservative estimate vs 9-10% CAGR for video games & educational toys since Capex capability & store expansion data is not available for Toy Box
Source: Case data; Team analysis
Appendix – UK Toys market segmentation by Category (2017)
160 151
140
128
Revenue (Mn EUR)
120
100
88 87
84 82 80
80
66
63
60
42
39 37
40 33
26
20
9
0
Video & Activity Dolls Infant Male Action Ride-Ons Board Toy Models Puzzles Outdoor Soft Toys Educational Arts and Other
Computer Games Vehicles Toys Toys Crafts
Games
(€ in 000s) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Revenue/Sq.ft 247 238 230 221 213 205 <<Reduced volume & pricing due to competition
Sq.Ft 300 300 300 300 300 300
#Shops 102 102 102 102 102 102
Revenue 93,932 88,278 83,832 78,713 74,320 71,595 68,971 66,442 64,006 61,660
Bought in costs 34,017 33,798 34,007 33,295 32,772 31,571 30,413 29,298 28,224 27,189
Gross profit 59,914 54,480 49,825 45,418 41,548 40,025 38,557 37,144 35,782 34,470
Gross margin 64% 62% 59% 58% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56%
Store Costs 11,824 12,206 12,552 12,904 13,249 13,282 13,315 13,348 13,382 13,415 <<Tightening real estate market
Distribution Costs 7,010 6,943 6,800 6,668 6,524 6,426 6,330 6,235 6,141 6,049 <<Inhouse distribution + IT development
Overheads 3,520 3,620 3,782 3,895 3,942 4,001 4,061 4,122 4,184 4,246 <<Inflation
Marketing Costs 6,492 6,419 6,322 6,339 6,237 6,299 6,362 6,426 6,490 6,555 <<Increasing competition
Store Labour Costs 9,834 9,968 10,035 10,138 10,212 10,365 10,521 10,679 10,839 11,001 <<Change in labour law
Total operating costs 38,680 39,155 39,491 39,945 40,164 40,374 40,589 40,810 41,036 41,267
Total costs 72,697 72,954 73,498 73,240 72,936 71,945 71,002 70,108 69,260 68,456
Total operating profit 21,235 15,324 10,334 5,473 1,384 -349 -2,032 -3,666 -5,253 -6,796
Operating margin% 23% 17% 12% 7% 2% 0% -3% -6% -8% -11%