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Natural Disasters
TENTH EDITIO N

Patrick L. Abbott
San Diego State University
NATURAL DISASTERS, TENTH EDITION

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Abbott, Patrick L.
Natural disasters / Patrick L. Abbott, San Diego State University. – Tenth edition.
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About the Author

Patrick L. Abbott Patrick Abbott is a native San

Diegan. Pat earned his MA and PhD degrees in geology at
the University of Texas at Austin. He benefited greatly from
the depth and breadth of the faculty in the Department of
Geological Sciences at Austin; this was extended by their
requirement to take five additional graduate courses outside
the department. Developing interests in many topics helped
lead to writing this textbook.
Pat’s research has concentrated on the Mesozoic and
Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the southwestern United
States and northwestern Mexico. Studies have focused on
reading the history stored within the rocks—depositional
environments, provenance, paleoclimate, palinspastic recon-
structions, and high-energy processes.
Pat has long been involved in presenting Earth knowl-
edge to the public, primarily through TV news. He has pro-
duced award winning videos for TV broadcast. He was one
of the main cast members in the TV series The Real Gilli-
gan’s Island on TBS, Serial Killer Earth on H2 (The History
Channel 2), and So You Think You’d Survive on The Weather
Channel. During part of each year, Pat works as a Smithson-
ian lecturer visiting all continents and oceans.
Brief Contents

Preface xiii
Prologue: Energy Flows 1
1 Natural Disasters and the Human Population 5
2 Internal Energy and Plate Tectonics 23
3 Earthquake Geology and Seismology 47
4 Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes 77
5 Earthquakes Throughout the United States and Canada 107
6 Volcanic Eruptions: Plate Tectonics and Magmas 141
7 Volcano Case Histories: Killer Events 171
8 Tsunami Versus Wind-Caused Waves 200
9 External Energy Fuels Weather and Climate 226
10 Tornadoes, Lightning, Heat, and Cold 248
11 Hurricanes 281
12 Climate Change 312
13 Floods 348
14 Fire 378
15 Mass Movements 407
16 Coastal Processes and Hazards 443
17 Impacts with Space Objects 455
18 The Great Dying Online*
Epilogue: Mass Extinctions 479
Glossary G-1
Credits C-1
Index I-1
*Available in expanded form as chapter 18 The Great Dyings
 Contents
Preface xiii
Prologue: Energy Flows 1
Processes of Construction versus Destruction 3
Terms to Remember 4
CHAPTER 1
Natural Disasters and the Human
Population 5
Great Natural Disasters 6
Human Fatalities and Economic Losses
in Natural Disasters 6
The Role of Government in Natural-Disaster
Death Totals 6
Human Responses to Disaster 8
Economic Losses From Natural Disasters 8
Natural Hazards 8
Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico 10
Magnitude, Frequency, and Return Period 10
Role of Population Growth 11
Overview of Human Population 12
The Power of an Exponent on Growth 12
The Past 10,000 Years of Human History 12
The Human Population Today 13
Side Note: Interest Paid on Money: An Example
of Exponential Growth 14
Future World Population 16
Demographic Transition 16
Urbanization and Earthquake Fatalities 17
Side Note: A Classic Disaster: Influenza (FLU)
Pandemic of 1918 18
Disease Pandemics 18
Carrying Capacity 19
Summary 21; Terms to Remember 21;
Questions for Review 22; Questions for Further
Thought 22
CHAPTER 2
Internal Energy and Plate
Tectonics 23
Origin of the Sun and Planets 24
Impact Origin of the Moon 25
Earth History 25
The Layered Earth 26
Side Note: Mother Earth 27
Behavior of Materials 27
Side Note: Volcanoes and the Origin of the Ocean,
Atmosphere, and Life 28
Isostasy 28
Internal Sources of Energy 30
Impact Energy and Gravitational Energy 30
Radioactive Isotopes 30
In Greater Depth: Radioactive Isotopes 32
Age of Earth 32
In Greater Depth: Radioactivity Disasters 33
Plate Tectonics 33
Development of the Plate Tectonics Concept 34
In Greater Depth: Earth’s Magnetic Field 36
Magnetization of Volcanic Rocks 37
The Grand Unifying Theory 43
How We Understand Earth 45
Uniformitarianism 45
Summary 45; Terms to Remember 46; Questions
for Review 46; Questions for Further Thought 46
CHAPTER 3
Earthquake Geology and
Seismology 47
A Classic Disaster: The Lisbon Earthquake
of 1755 48
Understanding Earthquakes 49
Faults and Geologic Mapping 49
 Types of Faults 51
Dip-Slip Faults 51
Strike-Slip Faults 52
Transform Faults 54
Development of Seismology 56
Waves 56
Seismic Waves 57
Body Waves 57
Seismic Waves and Earth’s Interior 57
Surface Waves 57
Sound Waves and Seismic Waves 58
In Greater Depth: Seismic Waves from Nuclear Bomb
Blasts Versus Earthquakes 60
Locating the Source of an Earthquake 60
Magnitude of Earthquakes 61
Richter Scale 61
Other Measures of Earthquake Size 63
Foreshocks, Mainshock, and Aftershocks 63
Magnitude, Fault-Rupture Length,
and ­Seismic-Wave Frequencies 64
Ground Motion During Earthquakes 64
In Greater Depth: F = MA 65
Acceleration 65
Periods of Buildings and Responses of
Foundations 65
In Greater Depth: What to Do Before and During an
Earthquake 66
Earthquake Intensity—What We Feel During
an Earthquake 66
Mercalli Scale Variables 68
A Case History of Mercalli Variables:
The San Fernando Valley, California,
Earthquake of 1971 68
Learning from the Past 71
Building in Earthquake Country 71
Shear Walls and Bracing 71
Retrofit Buildings, Bridges, and House
Construction 72
Base Isolation 72
Summary 75; Terms to Remember 75; Questions
for Review 75; Questions for Further Thought 76;
Disaster Simulation Game 76
CHAPTER 4
Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes 77
Tectonic-Plate Edges and Earthquakes 78
vi   Contents
Spreading-Center Earthquakes 79
Iceland 79
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden 80
Gulf of California 82
Convergent Zones and Earthquakes 83
Subduction-Zone Earthquakes 83
Japan, 2011: Stuck Segments of Subducting
Plate 84
A Classic Disaster: The Tokyo
Earthquake of 1923 85
Indonesia, 2004: One Earthquake Triggers
Others 85
Mexico City, 1985: Long-Distance Destruction 85
Chile, 1960: the Biggest One 87
Alaska, 1964: Second Biggest One 88
Pacific Northwest: the Upcoming Earthquake 89
Continent-Continent Collision Earthquakes 90
China, Pakistan, and India, 2008, 2005, and 2001:
Continent Collision Kills 90
China, 1556: the Deadliest Earthquake 91
The Arabian Plate 92
Continent-Continent Collision Earthquakes 92
Transform-Fault Earthquakes 92
Transform-Fault Earthquakes 93
Haiti, 2010: Earthquakes Don’t Kill,
Buildings Do 93
Turkey, 1999: Serial Earthquakes 94
San Andreas Fault Tectonics and Earthquakes 95
A Classic Disaster: The San Francisco
Earthquake of 1906 102
Bay Area Earthquakes—Past and Future 102
Summary 105; Terms to Remember 106;
Questions for Review 106; Questions for Further
Thought 106
CHAPTER 5
Earthquakes Throughout the
United States and Canada 107
How Faults Work 108
Elastic Rebound 108
Newer View 108
Thrust-Fault Earthquakes 110
Virginia, 2011: Ancient Faults can
Reactivate 110
Northridge, California, 1994: Compression at the
Big Bend 110
Seattle, Washington 111
Normal-Fault Earthquakes 112
Puget Sound, Washington, 1949, 1965, 2001:
Subducting Plates can Crack 112
Neotectonics and Paleoseismology 113
Earthquake Prediction 115
Long-Term Forecasts 115
Short-Term Forecasts 116
Early Warning System 117
Human-Triggered Earthquakes 117
Pumping Fluids Underground 117
Side Note: Perils of Predication: Scientists
on Trial 118
Dam Earthquakes 118
Bomb Blasts 119
Earthquake-Shaking Maps 119
Did You Feel It? 119
Shakemaps 119
California Earthquake Scenario 119
Annualized Earthquake Losses 121
Great Shakeout Events 121
Earthquakes in the United States and
Canada 121
Western North America: Plate Boundary–Zone
Earthquakes 123
Western Great Basin: Eastern California,
Western Nevada 124
The Intermountain Seismic Belt: Utah, Idaho,
Wyoming, Montana 127
Rio Grande Rift: New Mexico, Colorado,
Westernmost Texas, Mexico 129
Intraplate Earthquakes: “Stable” Central
United States 130
New Madrid, Missouri, 1811–1812 130
Reelfoot Rift: Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee,
Kentucky, Illinois 132
Ancient Rifts in the Central United States 133
Intraplate Earthquakes: Eastern North
America 134
New England 134
St. Lawrence River Valley 134
Charleston, South Carolina, 1886 135
Earthquakes and Volcanism in Hawaii 137
Earthquake in 1975 138
Earthquakes in 2006 138
Summary 139; Terms to Remember 139;
Questions for Review 139; Questions for Further
Thought 140
CHAPTER 6
Volcanic Eruptions: Plate Tectonics
and Magmas 141
How We Understand Volcanic Eruptions 142
Plate-Tectonic Setting of Volcanoes 142
A Classic Disaster: Eruption of Mount
Vesuvius, 79 ce 144
Chemical Composition of Magmas 145
Viscosity, Temperature, and Water Content
of Magmas 146
In Greater Depth: Minerals and Volcanic Rocks 147
Plate-Tectonic Setting of Volcanoes Revisited 149
How a Volcano Erupts 150
Eruption Styles and the Role of Water
Content 150
Some Volcanic Materials 151
The Three Vs of Volcanology: Viscosity,
Volatiles, Volume 152
Side Note: How a Geyser Erupts 154
Shield Volcanoes: Low Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
Large Volume 155
Flood Basalts: Low Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
very Large Volume 156
In Greater Depth: Volcanic Explosivity
Index (VEI) 157
Scoria Cones: Medium Viscosity, Medium
Volatiles, Small Volume 158
Stratovolcanoes: High Viscosity, High Volatiles,
Large Volume 158
Lava Domes: High Viscosity, Low Volatiles,
Small Volume 160
Calderas: High Viscosity, High Volatiles,
Very Large Volume 161
Side Note: British Airways Flight 9 162
In Greater Depth: Hot Spots 168
A Classic Disaster: Santorini and the Lost Island
of Atlantis 169
Summary 169; Terms to Remember 170;
Questions for Review 170; Questions for Further
Thought 170
CHAPTER 7
Volcano Case Histories:
Killer Events 171
Volcanism at Spreading Centers 172
Iceland 172
Contents   vii
 Volcanism at Subduction Zones 173
Cascade Range, Pacific Coast of United States
and Canada 173
In Greater Depth: Rapid Assembly and Rise
of Magma 183
Volcanic Processess and Killer Events 183
The Historic Record of Volcano Fatalities 183
Pyroclastic Eruptions 184
A Classic Disaster: Mont Pelée,
Martinique, 1902 186
Tsunami 188
Lahars 188
Debris Avalanches 190
Side Note: Death at Ashfall, Nebraska 191
Indirect—Famine 191
Gas 192
Lava Flows 194
VEIs of Some Killer Eruptions 194
Volcano Monitoring and Warning 195
Long Valley, California, 1982 195
Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991 197
Signs of Impending Eruption 197
Volcano Observatories 198
Summary 198; Terms to Remember 199;
Questions for Review 199; Questions for Further
Thought 199
CHAPTER 8
Tsunami Versus Wind-Caused
Waves 200
Japanese Tsunami, 11 March 2011 201
Tsunami Travel Through the Pacific Ocean 201
Land Subsidence 202
Side Note: Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster 203
British Columbia, Washington, Oregon,
26 January 1700 203
Waves in Water 204
Wind-Caused Waves 204
Why a Wind-Blown Wave Breaks 204
Rogue Waves 205
In Greater Depth: Deep-Water Wave Velocity,
Length, Period, and Energy 206
Tsunami 206
Tsunami Versus Wind-Caused Waves 208
A Classic Disaster: The Chile Tsunami of 1868 210
Tsunami at the Shoreline 210
viii   Contents
Earthquake-Caused Tsunami 211
Indian Ocean 26 December 2004 212
Alaska, 1 April 1946: First Wave Biggest 213
Chile, 22 May 1960: Third Wave Biggest 214
Alaska, 27 March 1964: Fifth Wave Biggest 215
Volcano-Caused Tsunami 215
Krakatau, Indonesia, 26–27 August 1883 215
Landslide-Caused Tsunami 216
Volcano Collapses 216
Earthquake-Triggered Movements 217
In Bays and Lakes 219
Seiches 220
Hebgen Lake, Montana, 17 August 1959 220
Tsunami and You 221
Simeulue Island, Indonesia, 26 December 2004 221
Nicaragua, 1 September 1992 221
Humans Can Increase the Hazard 222
Tsunami Warnings 222
Summary 224; Terms to Remember 224; Questions
for Review 224; Questions for Further Thought 224
Disaster Simulation Game 225
CHAPTER 9
External Energy Fuels Weather
and Climate 226
External Sources of Energy 227
The Sun 227
Solar Radiation Received by Earth 228
Outgoing Terrestrial Radiation 229
Greenhouse Effect 229
Albedo 229
The Hydrologic Cycle 230
Water and Heat 231
In Greater Depth: Water—The Most Peculiar
Substance on Earth? 232
Convection 232
Water Vapor and Humidity 232
Latent Heat 233
Adiabatic Processes 233
Lapse Rates 233
Differential Heating of Land and Water 234
Energy Transfer in the Atmosphere 234
Energy Transfer in the World Ocean 234
Layering of the Lower Atmosphere 235
Temperature 235
Pressure 236
 Winds 236 A Classic Disaster: The Tri-State Tornado
Pressure Gradient Force 237 of 1925 269

In Greater Depth: Coriolis Effect 238

Tornado Outbreaks 269
Tornadoes and Cities 271
Rotating Air Bodies 238
How a Tornado Destroys a House 272
General Circulation of the Atmosphere 239
Low Latitudes 240 Tornado Safety 272
Safe Rooms 272
High Latitudes 240
Middle Latitudes 241 Lightning 272
How Lightning Works 273
Observed Circulation of the Atmosphere 244
Don’t Get Struck 274
General Circulation of the Oceans 245
Surface Circulation 245 Heat 275
Heat Wave in Chicago, July 1995 276
Deep-Ocean Circulation 245
City Weather 278
Summary 246; Terms to Remember 247; Questions
for Review 247; Questions for Further Thought 247 European Heat Waves, 2003 and 2010 278
Summary 278; Terms to Remember 279;
CHAPTER 10 Questions for Review 279; Questions for Further
Thought 280
Tornadoes, Lightning, Heat,
and Cold 248 CHAPTER 11
Severe Weather 249
Hurricanes 281
Winter Storms 250
Hurricanes 283
Cold 250
How a Hurricane Forms 284
Precipitation 251
How a Hurricane Works 285
Nor’Easters 251
Eyewall and Eye 286
In Greater Depth: Doppler Radar 252 Tornadoes Within Hurricanes 286
Blizzards 253
Energy Flow in a Hurricane 287
Ice Storms 253
Hurricane Energy Release 287
Lake-Effect Snow 254
Hurricane Transition to Post-Tropical
How Thunderstorms Work 255 Cyclone 287
Lifting of Air 255 Hurricane Origins 288
Air-Mass Thunderstorms 255 North Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes 289
Severe Thunderstorms 257 Cape Verde-Type Hurricanes 290
Supercells 257 Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico–Type
Thunderstorms in North America 257 Hurricanes 293
In Greater Depth: Downbursts: An Airplane’s Hurricane Forecasts 294
Enemy 258 How Hurricanes Get their Names 296
Heavy Rains and Flash Floods 258 Hurricane Trends in the Atlantic Basin 296
Hail 260 Hurricane Damages 298
Derechos 261 Storm-Surge Hazards 298
Tornadoes 262 Heavy Rains and Inland Flooding 300
Tornadoes in 2011 262 A Classic Disaster: The Galveston Hurricane
How Tornadoes Form 262 of 1900 302
Regional Scale 262 Hurricanes and the Gulf of Mexico
Supercell Thunderstorm Scale 263 Coastline 302
Vortex Scale 265 Hurricane Katrina, August 2005 302
Tornadoes in the United States and Hurricanes and the Atlantic Coastline 305
Canada 266 Hurricane Hugo, September 1989 305

Contents   ix
 The Evacuation Dilemma 305 Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols 332
Reduction of Hurricane Damages 306 Water Vapor 332
In Greater Depth: How to Build a Home Near In Greater Depth: When did Humans Begin
the Coastline 307 Adding to Greenhouse Warming? 333
Land-Use Planning 307 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 334
Global Rise in Sea Level 308 Methane (CH4) 334
Hurricanes and the Pacific Coastline 308 Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 335
Hurricane Iniki, September 1992 308 Ozone (O3) 335
Cyclones and Bangladesh 309 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 335
Summary 310; Terms to Remember 310; 20th-Century Greenhouse Gas Increases 335
Questions for Review 311; Questions for Aerosols 335
Further Thought 311; Disaster Simulation
Game 311 The 21st Century 335
Global Climate Models 336
Drought and Famine 338
CHAPTER 12
Ice Melting 339
Climate Change 312 In Greater Depth: Tipping Points 340
Early Earth Climate—An Intense Sea-Level Rise 340
Greenhouse 313
In Greater Depth: Lag Times 342
Climate History of Earth: Timescale in Millions
Ocean Changes 343
of Years 314
Signs of Change 344
In Greater Depth: Equilibrium Between Tectonics,
Rock Weathering, and Climate 315 Mitigation Options 344
Late Paleozoic Ice Age 315 Controlling CO2 Content of Atmosphere 344
Late Paleocene Torrid Age 316 Managing Incoming Solar Radiation 345
Fast-Action Strategies 345
In Greater Depth: Oxygen Isotopes and
Summary 346; Terms to Remember 347;
Temperature 318
Questions for Review 347; Questions for Further
Late Cenozoic Ice Age 318 Thought 347
Glacial Advance and Retreat: Timescale
in Thousands of Years 319 CHAPTER 13
The Last Glacial Maximum 320
Floods 348
Climate Variations: Timescale in Hundreds
How Rivers and Streams Work 349
of Years 322
Shorter-Term Climate Changes: Timescale Side Note: A Different Kind of Killer Flood 350
in Multiple Years 323 The Equilibrium Stream 350
El Niño 323 In Greater Depth: Stream Velocity Profile 352
La Niña 325 Graded-Stream Theory 352
Pacific Decadal Oscillation 326 Side Note: Feedback Mechanisms 354
Volcanism and Climate 327 The Floodplain 354
Volcanic Climate Effects 328 Flood Frequency 354
In Greater Depth: The Mayan Civilization Florence, Italy, 1333 and 1966 354
and Climate Change 329 Flood-Frequency Curves 354
The Past Thousand Years 330 In Greater Depth: Constructing Flood-Frequency
The 20th Century 331 Curves 356
Solar Energy Variation 331 Flood Styles 357
Side Note: Stradivari Violins 332 Flash Floods 357
Radiative Forcing 332 Regional Floods 361

x   Contents
 Societal Responses to Flood Hazards 367 How Well Have We Learned? 395
Dams, Reservoirs, and Natural Storage Areas 367 Side Note: The Winds of Madness 397
Levees 368 Fire Suppression 398
Sandbagging 369 Yellowstone National Park Wildfire 399
Forecasting 369 California Versus Baja California: Pay Now
Zoning and Land Use 369 or Pay Later 400
Insurance 370 The Western and Southern United States
Presidential Disaster Declarations 370 in 2000 402
Urbanization and Floods 370 Prescribed Fires 403
Hydrographs 370 Wildfires in Australia 403
Flood Frequencies 371 The Similarities of Fire and Flood 405
Channelization 371 Summary 405; Terms to Remember 406;
Questions for Review 406; Questions
The Biggest Floods 373 for Further Thought 406; Disaster Simulation
Ice-Dam Failure Floods 374 Game 406
Summary 376; Terms to Remember 377;
Questions for Review 377; Questions for Further
Thought 377; Disaster Simulation Game 377 CHAPTER 15
Mass Movements 407
The Role of Gravity in Mass Movements 408
CHAPTER 14
Creep 409
Fire 378 External Causes of Slope Failures 410
Fire 379 In Greater Depth: Energy, Force, Work, Power,
What Is Fire? 380 and Heat 411
The Need for Fire 381 Water in its External Roles 412
The Fire Triangle 381 Internal Causes of Slope Failures 412
A Classic Disaster: The Burning of Rome, 64 ce 382 Inherently Weak Materials 412
The Stages of Fire 382 Water in Its Internal Roles 413
Side Note: An Ancient View of Fire 383 In Greater Depth: Analysis of Slope Stability 415
The Spread of Fire 384 Decreases in Cohesion 415
Fuel 384 A Classic Disaster: Vaiont Landslide,
Wind 385 Italy, 1963 416
Topography 385 Adverse Geologic Structures 417
Fire Behavior 385 Triggers of Mass Movements 418
The Fuels of Fire 387 Classification of Mass Movements 418
Grasses 387 Falls 418
Shrubs 387 Yosemite National Park, California 419
Forests 388 Slides 419
Houses 389 Rotational Slides 420
Fire Weather and Winds 389 Translational Slides 422
Cold-Front Winds 389 Flows 424
Downslope Winds 390 Portuguese Bend, California, Earthflow 424
Local Winds 390 La Conchita, California, Slump and Debris Flows,
Wind and Fire in the Great Lakes 1995 and 2005 426
Region 390 Long-Runout Debris Flows 426
Wind and Fire in California 392 Snow Avalanches 431
Home Design and Fire 395 Submarine Mass Movements 433

Contents   xi
 Mitigation 434 Side Note: Dwarf Planets 459
Reshaping Topography 434 Comets 460
Strengthening Slopes 434 Rates of Meteoroid Influx 462
Draining Water 435 In Greater Depth: Shoemaker-Levy 9 Comet
Controlling Erosion 436 Impacts on Jupiter 463
Subsidence 437 Cosmic Dust 464
Catastrophic Subsidence 437 Shooting Stars 464
Slow Subsidence 437 Meteorites 464
In Greater Depth: How to Create a Cave 438 The Crater-Forming Process 465
Summary 441; Terms to Remember 441; Questions Crater-Forming Impacts 467
for Review 441; Questions for Further Thought 442 Meteor Crater, Arizona 468
Impact Origin of Chesapeake Bay 469
CHAPTER 16 The End Cretaceous Impact 469
Evidence of the End Cretaceous Impact 471
Coastal Processes and Hazards 443
Site of the End Cretaceous Impact 471
Sand 444
Size and Velocity of Impactor 471
Summer Versus Winter Beaches 445
Angle of Impact 471
Waves 445
Problems for Life from the End Cretaceous
Rip Currents 445
Impact 471
Side Note: Shark-Attack Deaths 447 Biggest Events of the 20th and 21st
Wave Refraction 447 Centuries 472
Longshore Drift 447 Tunguska, Siberia, 1908 472
Tides 448 Biggest “Near Events” 474
Tidal Bores 448 Frequency of Large Impacts 474
Coastal-Control Structures 448 Lifetime Risks of Impact 475
In Greater Depth: Gravity and Tides 449 Prevention of Impacts 476
Seawalls 449 Summary 477; Terms to Remember 478;
Cliff Armoring 450 Questions for Review 478; Questions for Further
Thought 478
Groins and Jetties 451
Breakwaters 452
Massive Structures in Future 452 Epilogue: Mass Extinctions 479
The Fossil Record 479
Side Note: You Can Never Do Just One Thing 453
Mother Nature At Work 453
Mass Extinctions 480
Summary 454; Terms to Remember 454; Questions In Greater Depth: Causes of Mass Extinctions 482
for Review 454; Questions for Further Thought 454 The Current Mass Extinction 482
In Greater Depth: La Brea Tar Pits, Metropolitan
CHAPTER 17 Los Angeles 484

Impacts with Space Objects 455 Glossary G-1

Energy and Impacts 456 Credits C-1
Impact Scars 457 Index I-1
Sources of Extraterrestrial Debris 458
Asteroids 458

xii   Contents
 Preface
Why Study Natural Disasters?
Natural disasters occur every day and affect the lives of
millions of people each year. Many students have been
­ added the 2015 Nepal earthquake; rewrite earthquakes
affected by earthquakes or tornadoes or hurricanes or floods
or landslides or wildfires or other events. They are interested
in lectures that explain these processes, and lively discus-
sions commonly ensue.
During decades of teaching courses at San Diego State
University, I found that students have an innate curiosity
about “death and destruction”; they want to know why natu-
ral disasters occur. Initiation of a Natural Disasters course
led to skyrocketing enrollments that now exceed 5,000 stu-
dents per year. Some of these experiences are described in a
Journal of Geoscience Education article by Pat Abbott and
Ernie Zebrowksi [v 46 (1998), pp. 471–75].
Themes and Approach
This textbook focuses on explaining how the normal pro-
cesses of the Earth concentrate their energies and deal heavy
blows to humans and their structures. The following themes
are interwoven throughout the book:
∙ Energy sources underlying disasters
∙ Plate tectonics
∙ Climate change
∙ Earth processes operating in rock, water, and atmosphere
∙ Significance of geologic time
∙ Complexities of multiple variables operating sim­u­l­taneously
∙ Detailed and interesting case histories
New to This Edition
∙ Many of the Tables and Figures have been updated and
more than 60 new ones have been added.
∙ Chapter 1: Extensive updating of all disaster and demo-
graphic data.
∙ Chapter 2: Isostasy coverage expanded with new figure.
∙ Chapter 3: New In Greater Depth section compares seis-
mic waves of earthquakes versus nuclear bomb blast waves.
∙ Chapter 4: Expanded text on 2011 Japan earthquake;
in the Holy Land.
∙ Chapter 5: New section on earthquake early warning
system; expanded section on human-triggered earth-
quakes, fracking and the U.S. economy; added Side
Note explaining trial of Italian scientists over lack of
warning before L’Aquila earthquake.
∙ Chapter 6: Major expansion of flood basalts to include
their role in mass extinctions; major rewrite of Side
Note How a Geyser Erupts with new data from Old
Faithful, new photo and new figure.
∙ Chapter 7: Describe surprise eruption and deaths on
Mount Ontake, Japan; Add new In Greater Depth
explaining new understanding of the rapid assembly
and rise of magma bodies.
∙ Chapter 8: Expand description of 2011 Japanese tsunami.
∙ Chapter 10: New images of tornadoes, hail, lightning.
∙ Chapter 11: Expands on Hurricane Sandy and trans-
formation to a post-tropical cyclone. Adds In Greater
Depth on How to Build a Home Near the Coastline.
∙ Chapter 12: Covers IPCC Assessment Report 5.
Expanded discussion of Arctic Ocean sea ice. Added
21st-century sea-level rise, ocean acidification and
fisheries.
∙ Chapter 13: Major rewrite of Red River of the North.
Increased discussion of runoff reduction.
∙ Chapter 14: Adds information about houses as fuel.
∙ Chapter 15: Adds coverage of Oso, Washington land-
slide and debris flow. Expanded discussion of landslide
mitigation: reshaping topography; strengthening slopes;
draining water.
∙ Chapter 16: Adds deaths by shark bite. Building of mas-
sive structures to protect U.S. cities from sea-level rise
versus Maldives protected by Mother Nature.
∙ Chapter 17: Cover Chelyabinsk meteor explosion. First
landings on planets, their moons; asteroid; comet.
∙ Epilogue: Expansion of causes of mass extinctions.
Added text on Australia and New Zealand.

Acknowledgments
I am deeply appreciative of the help given by others to make
this book a reality. The photograph collection in the book
is immeasurably improved by the aerial photographs gener-
ously given by the late John S. Shelton, the greatest geolo-
gist photographer of them all. Please see John’s classic book
Geology Illustrated.
The quality of the book was significantly improved
by the insights provided by comments from the following
reviewers:
Baylor University, John Dunbar
California State Polytechnic University–Pomona,
Jon Nourse
California State University–Fullerton, Stephen I. Wareham
California State University–Los Angeles,
Hassan Rezaie Boroon
California State University, Los Angeles, Richard W. Hurst
California State University, Sacramento, Lisa Hammersley
Chandler–Gilbert Community College, John Dassinger
Colby College, James Rodger Fleming
College of Southern Idaho, Shawn P. Willsey
Dartmouth College, Leslie Sonder
Erie Community College, Buffalo State College,
Karen S. Wehn
Fairleigh Dickinson University, Edward Catanzaro
Fort Lewis College, David Gonzales
Grand Valley State University, Patrick Colgan
Illinois State University, Robert S. Nelson
Indiana University, Bingming Shen-Tu
Lindenwood University, Sandra Allen
Manchester Community College, Eszter Samodai
Minnesota State University–Mankato, Cecil S. Keen
North Hennepin Community College, John Dooley
Northeastern University, Jennifer Cole
Northeastern University, Langdon D. Clough
Penn State University–Altoona, Timothy J. Dolney
Pennsylvania State University, Kevin P. Furlong
Radford University, Jonathan Tso
Rio Hondo Junior College, Michael Forrest
Salisbury University, Brent R. Skeeter
San Diego State University, Jim Rickard
San Diego State University, Victor E. Camp
San Francisco State University, Bridget James
San Francisco State University, Mary Leech
San Francisco State University, Oswaldo Garcia
Sonoma State University, Terry Wright
Southeast Arkansas University, Steven Sumner
Southeast Missouri State University, Ernest L. Kern
St. Cloud State University, Alan Srock
xiv   Preface
abb22983_fm_i-xvi.indd xiv
Final PDF to printer
SUNY–Stony Brook, Christiane Stidham
Texas State University, Philip Suckling
The Arizona Geological Survey, Michael Conway
The Ohio State University, Michael Barton
Tulane University, Stephen A. Nelson
University at Albany, Michael G. Landin
University of British Columbia, Roland Stull
University of California–Santa Barbara, Cathy Busby
University of California Santa Cruz, Thorne Lay
University of California–Davis, John F. Dewey
University of California–Riverside, Peter Sadler
University of California–San Diego, Gabi Laske
University of Colorado–Boulder, Charles R. Stern
University of Colorado–Colorado Springs, Paul K. Grogger
University of Colorado, Alan Lester
University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign,
Wang-Ping Chen
University of Kansas, David Braaten
University of Kansas, Don Steeples
University of Kentucky–Lexington, Kevin Henke
University of Michigan, Youxue Zhang
University of Nebraska at Kearney, Jeremy S. Dillon
University of Nebraska–Kearney, A. Steele Becker
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University of North Carolina–Greensboro, John Hidore
University of Oklahoma, Judson Ahern
University of Portland, Robert Butler
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University of Wisconsin–LaCrosse, George Hupper
Utah State University–Logan, Sue Morgan
Washington University–St. Louis, Carol Prombo
Yale University, David Bercovici
Special thanks to the following individuals who wrote and/or
reviewed learning goal-oriented content for LearnSmart.
California State University–Sacramento, Lisa Hammersley
Northern Arizona University, Sylvester Allred
Roane State Community College, Arthur C. Lee
I sincerely appreciate the talents and accomplishments of
the McGraw-Hill professionals in Dubuque who took my
­manuscript and produced it into this book. For the short-
comings that remain in the book, I alone am responsible. I
welcome all comments, pro and con, as well as suggested
revisions.
Pat Abbott
professor_pat_abbott@yahoo.com
11/03/15 07:51 PM
 ®

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Prologue:
Energy Flows
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Earth is a planet with varied flows of energy that can cause problems
for humans. After studying the Prologue you should
• know the main flows of energy on Earth.
• comprehend how internal energy creates land.
• understand how external energy destroys land.
• be familiar with the rock cycle.
isasters occur where and when Earth’s natural
processes concentrate energy and then release it,
­ as snow and rain. On short timescales, these processes
killing life and causing destruction. Our interest is especially
high when this energy deals heavy blows to humans. As
the growth of the world’s population accelerates, more and
more people find themselves living in close proximity to
Earth’s most hazardous places. The news media increasingly
present us with vivid images and stories of the great losses
of human life and destruction of property caused by natural
disasters. As the novelist Booth Tarkington remarked: “The
history of catastrophe is the history of juxtaposition.”*
To understand the natural processes that kill and maim
unwary humans, we must know about the energy sources
that fuel them. Earth is an active planet with varied flows
of energy from: (1) Earth’s interior, (2) the Sun, (3) gravity,
and (4) impacts with asteroids and comets.
Internal energy flows unceasingly from Earth’s interior
toward the surface. The interior of the Earth holds a tremen-
dous store of heat accumulated from the initial impacts that
formed our planet and from the heat released by the ongoing
decay of radioactive isotopes. Over short time spans, internal
energy is released as eruptions from ­volcanoes and as seismic
waves from earthquakes. Over longer intervals of geologic
time, the flow of internal energy has produced our ­continents,
oceans, and atmosphere. On a planetary scale, this outflow of
internal energy causes continents to drift and collide, thus con-
structing mountain ranges and elevated plateaus.
External energy is delivered by the Sun. About a quarter
of the Sun’s energy that reaches Earth evaporates and lifts
water into the atmosphere. At the same time, the constant
Internal Energy
External Energy
Earth, the Blue Marble as seen from Apollo 17 in 1972.
NASA.
Gravity
pull of gravity helps bring atmospheric moisture down
bring us hail, lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes, and
floods. Solar energy is also stored in plant tissue to
be released later as fire. On a long timescale, the Sun
and gravity power the agents of erosion—glaciers,
streams, underground waters, winds, ocean waves and
currents—that wear away the continents and dump
their broken pieces and dissolved remains into the seas.
Solar radiation is the primary energy source because it
Impacts
evaporates and elevates water, but gravity is the imme-
diate force that drives the agents of erosion.
Gravity is an attractional force between bodies.
At equal distances, the greater the mass of a body,
the greater its gravitational force. The relatively great
mass of the Earth has powerful effects on smaller
masses such as ice and rock, causing ice to flow as
avalanches and hillsides to fail in landslides and
debris flows.
An energy source for disasters arrives when visi-
tors from outer space—asteroids and comets—impact
Earth. Impacts were abundant early in Earth’s history. In
recent times, collisions with large bodies have become
infrequent. However, asteroids and comets traveling at
velocities in excess of 30,000 mph occasionally slam into
Earth, and their deep impacts have global effects on life.
The sequence of chapters in this book is based on
energy sources, in the following order: Earth’s internal
energy, external energy supplied by the Sun, gravity,
and impacts with space objects.
Earth’s internal energy fuels volcanism, as well as providing the energy for earthquakes. Here, lava flows from the
Pu’u O’o-Kupaianaha eruption in Hawaii meet the ocean, 18 August 2010.
Michael Poland/U.S. Geological Survey.

External energy from the Sun fuels tornadoes, as well as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. Here, a powerful tornado spins
down from a supercell thunderstorm and travels along an Oklahoma road.
© 2010 Willoughby Owen/Getty Images RF.

2   Prologue: Energy Flows

The pull of gravity brings down hillsides. This earthquake-
triggered debris flow destroyed homes and killed 585 people in
Santa Tecla, El Salvador on 13 January 2001.
Ed Harp/U.S. Geological Survey.
Processes of Construction
versus Destruction
Another way to look at energy flow on Earth is by under-
standing the rock cycle and the construction and destruc-
tion of land (continents). Energy flowing up from Earth’s
interior melts rock that rises as magma and then cools and
crystallizes to form igneous rocks; they are plutonic rocks
if they solidify at depth or volcanic rocks if they cool and
harden at the surface. These newly formed rocks help cre-
ate new land. Igneous-rock formation is part of the internal
energy–fed processes of construction that create and ele-
vate landmasses.
At the same time, the much greater flow of energy from
the Sun, working with gravity, brings water that weath-
ers the igneous rocks exposed at or near the surface and
breaks them down into sediments. Physical weathering
disintegrates rocks into gravel and sand, while ­chemical
­weathering decomposes rock into clay minerals. The
sediments are eroded, transported mostly by water, and
then deposited in topographically low areas, ultimately the
High-velocity comets and asteroids can impact the
Earth and kill life worldwide. Here the Comet Lovejoy nears
Earth’s horizon behind airglow in the night sky.
Photo by NASA astronaut Dan Burbank from the International Space
Station on 22 December 2001.
ocean. These external, energy-fed processes of d­ estruction
work to erode the lands and dump the debris into the oceans.
These land-building and land-destroying processes
result from Earth’s energy flows that create, transform,
and destroy rocks as part of the rock cycle. Think about the
incredible amount of work done by the prodigious flows
of energy operating over the great age of Earth. There is
a long-term conflict raging between the internal-energy-
powered processes of construction, which create and
elevate landmasses, and the external-energy-powered pro-
cesses of destruction, which erode the continents and dump
the continental debris into the ocean basins. Visualize this:
If the interior of Earth cooled and the flow of internal
energy stopped, mountain building and uplift also would
stop; then the ongoing solar-powered agents of e­rosion
Processes of Construction versus Destruction    3
 Solar
energy

Weathering and Erosion

Transportation
Deposition

Cool at SEDIMENTS
surface =
Volcanic
IGNEOUS Uplift Burial compaction
ROCKS and cementation

Cool at SEDIMENTARY
depth = ROCKS
Me
Plutonic tam Up
orp lift
IGNEOUS hism Heat and pressure =
ROCKS metamorphism

METAMORPHIC
ROCKS
Rise of
MAGMA Heat from radioactive-
element decay

The rock cycle. Follow the cycle clockwise beginning in the lower left. Magma cools and solidifies to form igneous rocks.
Rocks exposed at Earth’s surface break down and decompose into sediments (e.g., gravel, sand, clay), which are transported,
deposited, and hardened into sedimentary rock. With increasing burial depth, temperature and pressure increase, causing
changes (or metamorphosis) of rocks into metamorphic rocks.

would reduce the continents to sea level in just 45 million

years. There would be no more continents, only an ocean-
Terms to Remember
covered planet. asteroid 1 igneous rock 3
Think about the timescales involved in eliminating atmosphere 1 lightning 1
chemical weathering 3 magma 3
the continents. At first reading, 45 million years of ero-
clay minerals 3 physical weathering 3
sion may seem like an awfully long time, but the Earth
comet 1 plutonic rocks 3
is more than 4.5 billion years old. The great age of Earth continent 1 processes of construction 3
indicates that erosion is powerful enough to have leveled debris flow 1 processes of destruction 3
the continents about 100 times. This shows the power of earthquake 1 radioactive isotope 1
the internal processes of construction to keep elevating old erosion 1 sand 3
continents and adding new landmasses. And woe to human glacier 1 sediment 3
and other life-forms that get too close to these processes gravel 3 seismic wave 1
of construction and destruction, for this is where natural gravity 1 tornado 1
disasters occur. hail 1 volcanic rocks 3
hurricane 1 volcano 1

4   Prologue: Energy Flows

 CHAPTER 1

Population
Natural Disasters
and the Human Population
“Mankind was destined to live on the edge of perpetual
disaster. We are mankind because we survive.”
—JAMES A. MICHENER, 1978, CHESAPEAKE., RANDOM HOUSE

LEARNING OUTCOMES
The human population is growing rapidly. Natural disasters are
causing great numbers of deaths and economic losses. After
studying this chapter you should

• recognize the differences between a natural hazard, a

natural disaster and a great natural disaster.
• be familiar with the processes that cause the deadliest
natural disasters.
• understand the relationship between frequency and
magnitude of natural disasters.
• know the size of the human population.
• understand the significance of exponential growth.
• recognize the demographic transition of human
populations.
• be able to explain the concept of carrying capacity.

OUTLINE
• Great Natural Disasters
• Human Fatalities and Economic Losses in Natural
Disasters
• Natural Hazards
• Overview of Human Population
• Future World Population
• Carrying Capacity

The world population of humans continues to increase

exponentially. Photo of shopping area in New Delhi, India.
© Dr. Parvinder Sethi
I n 2013, there were 150 natural disasters that claimed
20 or more human lives. They were primarily caused by
earthquakes, hurricanes (= cyclones = typhoons),
TABLE 1.1
The 16 Deadliest Natural Disasters in 2013
floods, winter storms and heat waves; they killed more
than 20,000 people. The 16 deadliest events are listed in Fatalities Date Event Country
table 1.1. As horrible as the 2013 death total is, it is mark- 7,345 11 Aug Typhoon Philippines
edly less than in 2010, when about 286,000 people were Haiyan
killed in two events alone (Haiti earthquake: 230,000; 5,748 14 Jun Floods India
­Russian heat wave: 56,000). All these disasters were the
760 6 Aug Heat wave United Kingdom
result of natural processes operating at high energy levels
for brief times in restricted areas. 531 1 Apr Heat wave India
399 24 Sep Earthquake Pakistan
388 1 Jan Cold wave India, Bangladesh

Great Natural Disasters 275 24 Aug Cold wave Peru

246 17 Jan Floods Mozambique,
The Japan earthquake and tsunami in 2011, the Haiti Zimbabwe
earthquake in 2010 and the Myanmar cyclone and China
earthquake in 2008 combined to kill almost 500,000 peo- 234 1 Aug Floods Pakistan
ple. They are examples of great natural disasters: these 230 15 Oct Earthquake Philippines
events so overwhelm regions that international assistance is 218 15 Sep Floods Cambodia,
needed to rescue and care for people, clean up the destruc- Vietnam
tion, and begin the process of reconstruction. Great natural
217 20 Apr Earthquake China
disasters commonly kill thousands of people, leave hun-
dreds of thousands homeless, and overwhelm the regional 200 5 Jul Floods China
economy. 174 9 Jul Floods India
Today, in earthquake-active areas of the world, several 169 13 Sep Hurricane Mexico
hundred million people live in buildings that will collapse Manuel
during a strong earthquake. An earthquake killing more than
  162 8 Nov Cyclone Somalia
100,000 people could happen any day in Teheran, Iran; in
Istanbul, Turkey; or in other large cities. Today, people by   17,296 Total deaths
the millions are moving to the ocean shores, where they can Source: Data from Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).
be hit by tsunami, hurricanes, and floods. We need to learn
how to build disaster-resistant communities to lessen the
human fatalities and economic losses resulting from natural
disasters.
are concentrated, disasters can kill many more people during
each high-energy event.
Human Fatalities and
Economic Losses in Natural THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN
NATURAL-DISASTER DEATH TOTALS
Disasters As the global population of humans increases, the number
The 40 deadliest disasters in the 44-year period from 1970 of deaths by natural disasters is expected to rise, but the
to 2013 are shown in table 1.2. The most frequent mega- relationship has complexities. Analyses by Gregory van
killers were earthquakes (25) and hurricanes (8). Notice that der Vink and students at Princeton University show that
27 of the 40 worst natural disasters occurred in a belt run- between 1964 and 1968, about 1 person in 10,000 was killed
ning from China and Bangladesh through India and Iran to by a natural disaster. Between 2000 and 2004, even though
Turkey. Nine happened in the Americas but none were in the the population of humans doubled, the death rate by natu-
United States or Canada. ral disaster dropped to about 1 person in 100,000. Yet, great
What is the correlation between human population den- natural disasters still result in horrific death totals in some
sity and the number of natural-disaster deaths? The data countries. What relationships, in addition to population
of table 1.2 paint a clear picture: densely populated Asia size, explain the locations of great natural disasters? Van
dominates the list of fatalities. The Asian experience offers der Vink and students compared natural-disaster deaths to
a sobering view of what may befall the global population the levels of democracy and economic development within
of humans if we continue our rapid growth. Where humans 133 nations with populations greater than 1 million that

6    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population

 TABLE 1.2
The 40 Deadliest Natural Disasters, 1970–2013
Fatalities Date/Start Event Country
300,000 14 Nov 1970 Hurricane (Bhola) Bangladesh
255,000 28 Jul 1976 Earthquake (Tangshan) China
245,000 26 Dec 2004 Earthquake and tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand
230,000 12 Jan 2010 Earthquake Haiti
140,000 2 May 2008 Hurricane Nargis Myanmar
140,000 29 Apr 1991 Hurricane Gorky Bangladesh
88,000 8 Oct 2005 Earthquake Pakistan
87,500 12 May 2008 Earthquake China
66,000 31 May 1970 Earthquake and debris flow (Nevados Huascaran) Peru
55,630 15 Jun 2010 Heat wave and fire Russia
50,000 21 Jun 1990 Earthquake (Gilan) Iran
35,000 Aug 2003 Heat wave Europe
27,000 26 Dec 2003 Earthquake (Bam) Iran
25,000 7 Dec 1988 Earthquake Armenia
25,000 16 Sep 1978 Earthquake (Tabas) Iran
23,000 13 Nov 1985 Volcanic eruption and mudflows (Nevado del Ruiz) Colombia
22,000 4 Feb 1976 Earthquake Guatemala
20,103 26 Jan 2001 Earthquake (Gujarat) India
19,184 11 Mar 2011 Earthquake and tsunami Japan
19,118 17 Aug 1999 Earthquake (Izmit) Turkey
18,000 15 Dec 1999 Flooding and debris flows Venezuela
15,000 19 Sep 1985 Earthquake (Mexico City) Mexico
15,000 1 Sep 1978 Floods (monsoon rains in north) India
15,000 29 Oct 1999 Hurricane (Orissa) India
11,000 22 Oct 1998 Hurricane Mitch Honduras
11,000 25 May 1985 Hurricane Bangladesh
10,800 31 Oct 1971 Floods India
10,000 20 Nov 1977 Hurricane (Andhra Pradesh) India
9,500 30 Sep 1993 Earthquake (Marashtra state) India
8,000 16 Aug 1976 Earthquake (Mindanao) Philippines
7,345 8 Nov 2013 Hurricane Haiyan Philippines
6,425 17 Jan 1995 Earthquake (Kobe) Japan
6,304 5 Nov 1991 Typhoons Thelma and Uring Philippines
5,778 21 May 2006 Earthquake Indonesia
5,748 14 Jun 2013 Floods India
5,422 30 Jun 1976 Earthquake (West Irian) Indonesia
5,374 10 Apr 1972 Earthquake (Fars) Iran
5,300 28 Dec 1974 Earthquake Pakistan
5,112 15 Nov 2001 Floods and debris flows Brazil
  5,000 23 Dec 1972 Earthquake (Managua) Nicaragua
2,053,643 Total deaths
Source: Data from Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).

Human Fatalities and Economic Losses in Natural Disasters    7

experienced five or more natural disasters between 1964 and
2004. Democracy is assessed by the World Bank’s Democ-
racy Index, and economic development by gross domestic
product (GDP).
The Princeton researchers state that more than 80% of
deaths by natural disasters between 1964 and 2004 took
place in 15 nations, including China, Bangladesh, and
Indonesia. For these 15 countries, 87% are below the
median democracy index and 73% are below the median
GDP. The correlation between high GDP and low death
totals shows exceptions in Iran and Venezuela, two oil-
rich nations with significant GDP but low democracy
indices. These exceptions suggest a greater importance
for democracy than GDP: the stronger the democracy
index, the lower the death totals from natural disasters.
The mega-killer natural disasters of recent years fit this
trend also: Pakistan earthquake in 2005 (88,000 dead),
Myanmar cyclone in 2008 (140,000 dead), China earth-
quake in 2008 (87,500 dead), and Haiti earthquake in 2010
(230,000 dead).
In a thought-provoking paragraph in their conclusion,
van der Vink and students state: “Deaths from natural disas-
ters can no longer be dismissed as random acts of nature.
They are a direct and inevitable consequence of high-risk
land use and the failures of government to adapt or respond
to such known risks.”
HUMAN RESPONSES TO DISASTER
Decades of social science research help us understand how
most human beings react to natural disasters, and the news
is good. Our behavior in ordinary times changes follow-
ing disasters. In day-to-day life, most people are primarily
concerned with their own needs and those of their imme-
diate families; other relationships tend to be more super-
ficial. After a natural disaster, many people change from
inward-directed concerns to outward-directed actions.
After an initial response of shock and disbelief, our emo-
tions of sympathy and empathy tend to dominate. Per-
sonal priorities may be set aside and humanitarian and
­community-oriented actions take over. People reach out to
others; they give aid and comfort to strangers; they make
great efforts to provide help. Following a natural disaster,
people become better connected and cohesive; they expe-
rience a heightened and compelling desire to add to the
common good.
ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM
NATURAL DISASTERS
The deaths and injuries caused by natural disasters grab our
attention and squeeze our emotions, but in addition, there
are economic losses. The destruction and disabling of build-
ings, bridges, roads, power-generation plants, and transmis-
sion systems for electricity, natural gas, and water, plus all
the other built works of our societies, add up to a huge dollar
8    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population
cost. But the economic losses are greater than just dam-
aged structures; industries and businesses are knocked out
of operation, causing losses in productivity and wages for
employees left without places to work.
In 2013 there were 308 natural and human-caused disas-
ters with losses greater than US$95 million. The total eco-
nomic losses were around US$140 billion. This is well below
the inflation-adjusted 10-year average of US$190 billion.
Insured Portion of Economic Losses
The 40 greatest disasters between 1970 and 2013 from
the insurance company perspective of dollar losses are
listed in table 1.3. Notice that 39 of the 40 most expen-
sive disasters were due to natural processes. The list of
most expensive events is dominated by weather events
(32 of 40), whereas earthquakes contributed seven. Com-
pare the events on the 40 deadliest disasters list (see
table 1.2) with table 1.3.
The locations of the worst dollar-loss disasters for the
insurance industry (table 1.3) are different from the worst
locations for fatalities (see table 1.2). The highest insurance
dollar losses occurred in the United States (24 of 40), Europe
(7), and Japan (5). Wealthy countries are better insured and
their people live in safer buildings.
The extent of economic and insured losses may take years
to become known. For example, the insured losses from the
January 1994 Northridge earthquake were listed at $2.8 billion
in February 1994, but they grew to $10.4 billion in January
1995 and increased to $15.3 billion in April 1998.
Natural Hazards
Many sites on Earth have not had a natural disaster in recent
time, but are hazardous nonetheless. Natural hazards may
be assessed as the probability of a dangerous event occur-
ring. For example, people migrate and build next to rivers
that are likely to flood, on the shoreline of the sea awaiting
a powerful storm, and on the slopes of volcanoes that will
eventually erupt. Decades, or even centuries, may pass with
no great disasters, but the hazard remains.
Sites with natural hazards must be studied and under-
stood. Their risks must be evaluated. Then we can try to
prevent natural hazards from causing natural disasters.
Remember: Natural hazards are inevitable, but natural
disasters are not.
In the process of mitigation, we make plans and take
actions to eliminate or reduce the threat of future death and
destruction when natural hazards suddenly become great
threats. The mitigating actions taken to protect us may be
engineering, physical, social, or political.
Another need for mitigation occurs after great disasters,
because people around the world tend to reoccupy the same
site after a disastrous event is done. Earthquakes knock cit-
ies down, and then the survivors may use the same bricks
 TABLE 1.3
The 40 Costliest Insurance Disasters, 1970–2013
Losses in Millions
of 2013 US$ Fatalities Date/Start Event Country
80,373 1,836 29 Aug 2005 Hurricane Katrina USA
37,665 19,184 11 Mar 2011 Earthquake and tsunami Japan
36,890 237 24 Oct 2012 Hurricane Sandy USA
27,594 43 24 Aug 1992 Hurricane Andrew USA
25,664 2,982 11 Sep 2001 Terrorist attack USA
22,857 61 17 Jan 1994 Earthquake (Northridge) USA
22,751 136 6 Sep 2008 Hurricane Ike USA
17,218 181 2 Sep 2004 Hurricane Ivan USA
16,519 815 27 Jul 2011 Floods (monsoon) Thailand
16,142 181 22 Feb 2011 Earthquake New Zealand
15,570 35 16 Oct 2005 Hurricane Wilma USA
12,510 34 20 Sep 2005 Hurricane Rita USA
11,594 123 15 Jul 2012 Drought (corn belt) USA
10,313 24 11 Aug 2004 Hurricane Charley USA
10,031 51 27 Sep 1991 Typhoon Mireille Japan
8,924 71 15 Sep 1989 Hurricane Hugo USA
8,876 562 27 Feb 2010 Earthquake Chile
8,648 95 25 Jan 1990 Winter Storm Daria Europe
8,426 110 25 Dec 1999 Winter Storm Lothar Europe
7,856 354 22 Apr 2011 Tornadoes (Alabama) USA
7,587 155 20 May 2011 Tornadoes (Missouri) USA
7,112 54 18 Jan 2007 Winter Storm Kyrill Europe
6,602 22 15 Oct 1987 Storm Europe
6,593 38 26 Aug 2004 Hurricane Frances USA
6,400 63 17 Oct 1989 Earthquake (Loma Prieta) USA
6,274 55 22 Aug 2011 Hurricane Irene USA
5,909 64 26 Feb 1990 Winter Storm Vivian Europe
5,869 26 22 Sep 1999 Typhoon Bart Japan
5,548 — 4 Sep 2010 Earthquake New Zealand
5,240 600 20 Sep 1998 Hurricane Georges USA, Caribbean
4,925 41 5 Jun 2001 Tropical Storm Allison USA
4,872 3,034 13 Sep 2004 Hurricane Jeanne USA, Haiti
4,593 45 6 Sep 2004 Typhoon Songda Japan
4,250 135 26 Aug 2008 Hurricane Gustav USA
4,216 45 2 May 2003 Tornadoes USA
4,134 25 27 July 2013 Floods Europe
4,100 70 10 Sep 1999 Hurricane Floyd USA, Bahamas
3,979 59 4 Oct 1995 Hurricane Opal USA
3,926 6,425 17 Jan 1995 Earthquake (Kobe) Japan
3,406 25 24 Jan 2009 Winter Storm Klaus France, Spain
$512 Billion 38,096 Total deaths
Source: Data after Swiss Reinsurance Company (2014).

Natural Hazards   9
and stones to rebuild on the same site. Floods and hur-
ricanes inundate towns, but people return to refurbish and
again inhabit the same buildings. Volcanic eruptions pour
huge volumes of magma and rock debris onto the land,
burying cities and killing thousands of people, yet survi-
vors and new arrivals build new towns and cities on top of
their buried ancestors. Why do people return to a devastated
site and rebuild? What are their thoughts and plans for the
future? For a case history of a natural hazard, let’s visit
Popocatépetl in Mexico.
POPOCATÉPETL VOLCANO, MEXICO
Popocatépetl is a 5,452 m (17,883 ft) high volcano that
lies between the huge populations of Mexico City (largest
city in Mexico) and Puebla (fourth largest city in Mexico)
(figure 1.1). The volcano has had numerous small erup-
tions over thousands of years; thus its Nahuatl name,
Popocatépetl, or Popo as it is affectionately called, means
smoking mountain. But sometimes Popo blasts forth with
huge eruptions that destroy cities and alter the course of
Figure 1.1. Popocatepetl in minor eruption. The cathedral
was built by the Spanish on top of the great pyramid at Cholula,
an important religious site in a large city that was mostly buried
by an eruption around 822 CE.
© Florian Kopp/imagebroker/Corbis RF.
10    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population
civilizations. Around the year 822 CE (common era), Popo’s
large eruptions buried significant cities. Even its smaller
eruptions have affected the course of human affairs. In
1519, Popo was in an eruptive sequence as Hernán Cortéz
and about 500 Spanish conquistadors marched westward
toward Tenochtitlan, the Aztec capital city. The supersti-
tious Aztec priest-king Montezuma interpreted the erup-
tions as omens, and they affected his thinking on how to
deal with the invasion.
Popocatépetl has helped change the path of history, but
what is the situation now? Today, about 100,000 people live
at the base of the volcano; they have been attracted by the
rich volcanic soil, lots of sunshine, and fairly reliable rains.
Millions more people live in the danger zone extending
40 km (25 mi) away. The Nahuatl people consider Popo to
be divine—a living, breathing being. In their ancient reli-
gion, God, rain, and volcano are intertwined. Most do not
fear the volcano; rather, they believe that God decides events
and that with faith, things will work out. Thus, good oppor-
tunities for farming, coupled with faith and fatalism, bring
people back.
Volcanic activity on Popo resumed on 21 December
1994 with eruptions of ash and gases. The sequence of
intermittent eruptions continues today. How do we evalu-
ate this hazard? Is this just one of the common multiyear
sequences of small eruptions that gave the volcano its
name? Or are these little eruptions the forewarnings of a
giant killing eruption that will soon blast forth? We can-
not answer these questions for sure. How would you handle
the situation? Would you order the evacuation of 100,000
people to protect them, and in so doing, have them aban-
don their homes, sell their livestock, and leave their inde-
pendent way of life for an unknown length of time that
could be several years? Or would you explain the conse-
quences of an unlikely but possible large eruption and let
them decide whether to stay or go? If they decide to stay
and then die during a huge volcanic blast, would this be
your fault?
It is relatively easy to identify natural hazards, but as the
Popocatépetl case history shows, it is not easy to decide how
to answer the questions presented by this volcanic hazard.
We are faced with the same types of questions again and
again, for earthquakes, landslides, tornadoes, hurricanes,
floods, and fire.
MAGNITUDE, FREQUENCY,
AND RETURN PERIOD
Earth is not a quiet and stable body. Our planet is dynamic,
with major flows of energy. Every day, Earth experiences
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, storms, floods,
fires, meteorite impacts, and extinctions. These energy-
fueled events are common, but their magnitudes vary mark-
edly over space and time.
 Natural hazards and disasters are not spaced evenly about estimates the return times for these killer events. On a yearly
Earth. Some areas experience gigantic earthquakes and basis, most low-fatality events are due to floods and torna-
some areas are hit by powerful hurricanes; some are hit by does, and their return times are brief, less than one year.
both, while other areas receive neither. High-fatality events are dominantly hurricanes and earth-
During a period of several years or even several decades, quakes, and their return times for mega-killer events are
a given area may experience no natural disasters. But given much shorter than for floods and tornadoes.
enough time, powerful, high-energy events will occur in Knowing the magnitude, frequency, and return period for
every area. It is the concentrated pulses of energy that con- a given event in a given area provides useful information,
cern us here, for they are the cause of natural disasters—but but it does not answer all our questions. There are still the
how frequent are the big ones? In general, there is an inverse cost-benefit ratios of economics to consider. For example,
correlation between the frequency and the magnitude of a given an area with a natural hazard that puts forth a danger-
process. The frequent occurrences are low in magnitude, ous pulse of energy with a return period of about 600 years,
involving little energy in each event. As the magnitude of an how much money should you spend constructing a building
event increases, its frequency of occurrence decreases. For that will be used about 50 years before being torn down and
all hazards, small-scale activity is common, but big events replaced? Will your building be affected by a once-in-600-
are rarer. For example, clouds and rain are common, hur- year disastrous event during its 50 years? Should you spend
ricanes are uncommon; streams overflow frequently, large the added money necessary to guarantee that your building
floods are infrequent. will withstand the rare destructive event? Or do economic
Another way of understanding how frequently the truly considerations suggest that your building be constructed to
large events occur is to match a given magnitude event the same standards as similar buildings in nearby nonhaz-
with its return period, or recurrence interval, which is the ardous areas?
number of years between same-sized events. In general, the
larger and more energetic the event, the longer the return
period. ROLE OF POPULATION GROWTH
A U.S. Geological Survey mathematical analysis of The world experiences significant numbers of great natural
­natural-disaster fatalities in the United States assesses the disasters and increasing economic losses from these events.
likeliness of killer events. Table 1.4 shows the probabilities The losses of life and dollars are occurring at the same time
of 10- and 1,000-fatality events for earthquakes, hurricanes, the global population of humans is increasing (figure 1.2).
floods, and tornadoes for 1-, 10-, and 20-year intervals, and Population growth places increasing numbers of people
in hazardous settings. They live and farm on the slopes of
active volcanoes, build homes and industries in the lowlands
of river floodplains, and move to hurricane-prone coast-
TABLE 1.4 lines. How have the numbers of people grown so large? The
present situation can best be appreciated by examining the
Probability Estimates for 10- and 1,000-Death
record of population history.
Natural Disasters in the United States
Likeliness of a 10-Fatality Event
Return
During During During Time
1 Year 10 Years 20 Years (in years)
Earthquake 11% 67% 89% 9
Hurricane 39 99 >99 2
Flood 86 >99 >99 0.5
Tornado 96 >99 >99 0.3
Likeliness of a 1,000-Fatality Event
During During During Return Time
1 Year 10 Years 20 Years (in years)
Earthquake 1% 14% 26% 67
Hurricane 6 46 71 16
Flood 0.4 4 8 250
Figure 1.2 The number of people on Earth continues to grow
Tornado 0.6 6 11 167 rapidly.
Source: US Geological Survey Fact Sheet (unnumbered). Photo courtesy of Pat Abbott.

Natural Hazards   11
Overview of Human
Population
The most difficult part of human history to assess is the
beginning, because there are no historic documents and
the fossil record is scanty. In 2003, modern human fossils
discovered in Ethiopia were dated as 160,000 years old.
Our species appears to have began in Africa about 200,000
years ago. The rate of population growth and the number of
people alive early in human history were so small that they
cannot be plotted accurately on the scale of figure 1.3. The
growth from a few thousand people 160,000 years ago to
more than 7.34 billion people in the year mid-2015 did not
occur in a steadily increasing, linear fashion. The growth
rate is exponential.
THE POWER OF AN EXPONENT
ON GROWTH
The most stunning aspect of figure 1.3 is the peculiar shape
of the human population curve; it is nearly flat for most of
human time and then abruptly becomes nearly vertical. The
marked upswing in the curve shows the result of ­exponential
growth of the human population. Possibly the least appreci-
ated concept of present times is what a growth-rate expo-
nent does to the size of a population over time. Exponential
growth moves continuously in ever-increasing increments;
it leads to shockingly large numbers in surprisingly short
6
Number of humans (in billions)
160,000
Figure 1.3 Human population growth since its start about 160,000 years ago.
12    Chapter 1   Natural Disasters and the Human Population
times. Probably our most familiar example of exponential
growth occurs when interest is paid on money.
It can be difficult to visualize the results of exponential
growth when it is expressed only as a percentage over time,
such as the very small growth rate of the human population
in 160,000 years or as 7% interest on your money for
50 years. It is easier to think of exponential growth in terms
of doubling time—the number of years required for a popu-
lation to double in size given an annual percentage growth
rate. A simple formula, commonly called the rule of 70,
allows approximation of doubling times:
70
Doubling time (in years) =
% growth rate/year
Learning to visualize annual percentage growth rates
in doubling times is useful whether you are growing your
money in investments or spending it by paying interest on
debts (especially at the high rates found with credit-card
debt). Table 1.5 shows how interest rates affect how quickly
your money will grow.
THE PAST 10,000 YEARS
OF HUMAN HISTORY
The long, nearly flat portion of the population curve in
figure 1.3 certainly masks a number of small-scale trends,
both upward and downward. The fossil record is not rich
120,000 80,000 40,000 10,000 Today
Years before present
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Title: A mediaeval burglary

A lecture delivered at the John Rylands Library on the
20th January, 1915

Author: T. F. Tout

Release date: October 28, 2023 [eBook #71975]

Language: English

Original publication: Manchester: The University Press, 1916

Credits: David Wilson and the Online Distributed Proofreading

Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced
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Internet Archive)

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK A

MEDIAEVAL BURGLARY ***
 A
M E D I A E VA L B U R GL A RY

A LECTURE
DELIVERED AT THE JOHN RYLANDS LIBRARY ON THE
20th JANUARY, 1915

by
T. F. TOUT, M.A., F.B.A.
bishop fraser professor of mediaeval and ecclesiastical history in
the
university of manchester

Reprinted from “The Bulletin of the John Rylands Library”

 October, 1915

MANCHESTER: THE UNIVERSITY PRESS, 12 LIME GROVE, OXFORD

ROAD. LONGMANS, GREEN & CO., 39 PATERNOSTER ROW, LONDON,
E.C., NEW YORK, BOMBAY, CALCUTTA, AND MADRAS. BERNARD
QUARITCH, 11 GRAFTON STREET, LONDON, W. MCMXVI
 PUBLISHED FOR THE JOHN RYLANDS LIBRARY AT

THE UNIVERSITY PRESS

12 Lime Grove, Oxford Road, Manchester

LONGMANS, GREEN AND CO.

London: 39 Paternoster Row
New York: 443–449 Fourth Avenue and Thirteenth Street
Bombay: 8 Hornby Road
Calcutta: 303 Bowbazar Street
Madras: 167 Mount Street

BERNARD QUARITCH
11 Grafton Street, New Bond Street, London, W.
 A
M E D I A E VA L B U R GL A RY

A LECTURE
DELIVERED AT THE JOHN RYLANDS LIBRARY ON THE
20th JANUARY, 1915

by
T. F. TOUT, M.A., F.B.A.
bishop fraser professor of mediaeval and ecclesiastical history in
the
university of manchester

Reprinted from “The Bulletin of the John Rylands Library”

October, 1915
MANCHESTER: THE UNIVERSITY PRESS, 12 LIME GROVE, OXFORD
ROAD. LONGMANS, GREEN & CO., 39 PATERNOSTER ROW, LONDON,
E.C., NEW YORK, BOMBAY, CALCUTTA, AND MADRAS. BERNARD
QUARITCH, 11 GRAFTON STREET, LONDON, W. MCMXVI
 A MEDIAEVAL BURGLARY.1

By T. F. Tout, M.A., F.B.A., Bishop Fraser

Professor of Mediaeval and
Ecclesiastical History in the University
of Manchester.

T HE burglary, about which I have to speak to-night, I did not

discover by ransacking the picturesque and humorous annals
of mediaeval crime. I came across the details of this incident
when seeking for something quite different, for it happened when
I was attempting to investigate the technicalities of the history of
the administrative department known as the king’s Wardrobe. But
so human a story did something to cheer up the weary paths of
Dryasdust, and he hands it on to you in the hope that you will
not find it absolutely wanting in instruction and amusement. Now
my burglary was the burglary of the king’s treasury, or more
precisely, of the treasury of the king’s wardrobe, within the
precincts of the abbey at Westminster. The date of the event was
24 April, 1303. More precisely, according to the chief burglar’s
own account, it was on the evening of that day that the burglar
effected an entrance into the king’s treasury, from which, he tells
us he escaped, with as much booty as he could carry, on the
morning of 26 April. Who had committed the burglary is a
problem which was not quite settled, even by the trials which
followed the offence, though these trials resulted in the hanging
of some half a dozen people at least. But after the hanging of
the half-dozen, it was still maintained in some quarters that the
burglary was committed by one robber only, though charges of
complicity in his guilt were in common fame extended to
something like a hundred individuals. And in this case common
fame was not, I think, at fault.

I wish first of all to explain the meaning of the sentence,

rather cryptic to the generality, in which I spoke of my burglary as
that of the robbery of the treasury of the king’s wardrobe within
Westminster Abbey. For this purpose I must ask you to carry
your minds back to the Westminster of the early years of the
fourteenth century. Westminster was then what Kensington was in
the eighteenth or early nineteenth century, a court suburb, aloof
from the traffic and business of the great city of London. Now the
twin centres of Westminster were the king’s palace and the
adjacent Benedictine Abbey. The rough plan, which I am
permitted to print on the opposite page, will show the close
relation of the two great groups of buildings. It was much closer
in many ways than the relations between the Houses of
Parliament, the modern representative of the old palace, and the
present abbey buildings. If these latter largely remain, despite
many destructive alterations in details, in their ancient site, we
must remember that there was nothing like the broad modern
road that separates the east end of the abbey from Westminster
Hall and the House of Lords. A wall enclosed the royal precincts,
and went westwards to within a few feet of the monks’ infirmary
and the end of St. Margaret’s Church. The still existing access to
the abbey on the east side of the south transept through the
door by which you can still go into “poet’s corner,” having the
chapter house on your left and Henry VII’s chapel on your right,
was the portal by which immediate access to the palace could be
gained through a gate in this wall. The space between the abbey
and the palace wall was occupied by the churchyard of
St. Margaret’s. The parish church—or rather its successor—still
crouches beneath the shade of the neighbouring minster. This
churchyard covered the ground now taken up by Henry VII’s
chapel, which of course was not as yet in existence. In the midst
of this grassy plot stood the chapter house of the monks of
Westminster, with its flying buttresses and its single pillar
supporting its huge vault, then newly erected by the pious zeal of
Henry III.
Plan of Westminster Abbey and Palace.
 Westminster Abbey was founded by Edward the Confessor,
and substantially refounded by Henry III, who had shown
immense care and lavished large sums on a grandiose scheme
for the rebuilding of the great house of religion which contained
the shrine of his favourite saint, in whose honour he had given
his son the name of Edward. The rebuilding went on into the
reign of Edward I, who was not much inferior to his father in his
zeal for the church, and was doubly bound to honour his father’s
wishes and the memory of his own patron saint. In the closing
years of the thirteenth century circumstances compelled Edward I
to desist from this work. The king now found himself dragged into
enormous expenses by the French, Scottish, and Flemish wars.
He was perforce turned from church-building to get men and
money for his wars.
The finances of England under Edward I were less elastic
than under Mr. Lloyd-George, and modern credit and banking
were then in their very infancy. Edward I, though he imposed
taxes which would make the most stalwart militarist of to-day
quiver, soon found himself hopelessly in debt. To meet his
burdens the king constantly employed differentiated taxation, but
the differentiation was calculated by rather a different method
from that in fashion nowadays. It was differentiation according to
status, not according to wealth. The clergy, who were not
expected to fight, were expected to pay more heavily than the
laymen. Let us take as an instance of how things were then
done the taxes levied in 1294 when the fighting country districts
were called upon to pay a tenth of their moveables in taxation,
and the wealthier and more peaceful towns were asked for a
sixth. From the clergy a tax equal, I think, to a modern income
tax of ten shillings in the pound, was demanded, and it is said
that when the dean of St. Paul’s heard of this unprecedented
impost, he fell dead on the spot. If such heroic efforts—I mean
the king’s not the dean’s—were necessary in 1294 at the
beginning of England’s troubles, how much worse things must
have become by 1303, after ten years of storm and stress? By
this date Edward I’s finances were indeed in a bad state.
Historians are only now gradually beginning to realise how
embarrassed the great king was in the last years of his reign,
and how desperate were some of his attempts to fill his
exchequer.
The whole of Edward’s declining years were not equally
strenuous, though his finances steadily grew worse. Before the
end of the old century Edward had got over the worst of his
troubles abroad. He therefore determined to devote himself with
characteristic energy to the conquest of the “rebel” Scots. Since
therefore Scotland now became the king’s chief anxiety, Edward
made his headquarters in the north of England. In those days,
where the king lived there the machinery of government was to
be found. For though England in the thirteenth century had
centralised institutions, those institutions were not centralised in a
local capital. It is true that one English city was immensely more
important than all the rest. London, in the thirteenth as in the
eighteenth century, was, relatively to other towns, even greater
and more important than is the case nowadays. Of course
Edward I’s London to our eyes would be quite a little place, but
at a time when there was, outside London, perhaps no town of
more than 10,000 inhabitants and very few of that population, a
city four or five times that size was something portentous. Yet
this greatness of London was due to its commercial activity, much
more than to the fact that it was the “capital” of the country or its
seat of government. In reality there was no capital in the modern
sense, for the English tradition was that the government should
follow the king. It was only very gradually that the governing
machinery of the land was permanently settled in Westminster or
London. There was, however, already a tendency towards making
the great city, or rather its neighbouring court suburb, a centre of
permanent administrative offices, a capital in the modern sense.
Thus the Court of Common Pleas had been settled in London
since Magna Carta and the Exchequer, that is the department of
finance, had also been fixed there since the reign of Henry II.
These were, however, still the exceptions which proved the rule.
The office of the Chancery—which was not then a law-court, but
the secretarial office of state—followed the king. So also did
certain branches of the administration which depended on the
court, and were intended, first of all, to be the machinery for the
government of the king’s household.
In the middle ages no distinction was made between the king
and the kingdom. If the king had devised a useful machine for
governing his household and estates, he naturally used it for any
other purposes for which he thought it would be useful. We find,
therefore, the court offices of administration and finance working
side by side with the national offices, not only in dealing with
household affairs, but in the actual work of governing the country.

The most important of these household offices was that called

the king’s Wardrobe. Originally the Wardrobe was, of course, the
closet in which the king hung up his clothes, and the staff
belonging to it were the valets and servants whose business it
was to look after them. From this modest beginning the king’s
Wardrobe had become an organised office of government. Its
clerks rivalled the officers of the Exchequer in their dealings with
financial matters, and the officers of the Chancery, in the number
of letters, mandates, orders, and general administrative business
which passed through their hands.

The Wardrobe always “followed the king”. In war time, then, it

was far away from London, at or near the scene of fighting. In
such periods it became the great spending department, while the
Exchequer normally remained at Westminster collecting the
revenue of the country, and forwarding the money to the
Wardrobe which spent it. For five years before 1303 the king had
thrown his chief energies into the conquest of Scotland. Under
these circumstances London and Westminster saw little of him.
Moreover, he found it convenient to have near him in the north
even the sedentary offices of government. Accordingly in 1298
Edward transferred the Exchequer, the law courts, and the
Chancery to York. From 1298, then, to 1303 York, rather than
Westminster, might have been called the capital of England, and
the king’s appearances to the south were few and far between.
The occasion of such visits was generally his desire to get
money, and to make arrangements with his creditors. From such
a short sojourn the king went north in the early months of 1303.
Despite all his efforts it was only in that year that he was really
able to put his main weight into the Scottish war.

When our burglary took place, king, court, and government

offices had been removed to York for over five years. Under
mediaeval conditions the eye of a vigilant task-master was an
essential condition of efficiency. It followed then that during
Edward’s long absence things at Westminster were allowed to
drift into an extraordinary state of confusion and disorder. Affairs
were made worse by the fact that even kings were not always
free to choose their own servants. Thus the king’s palace at
Westminster was in the hands of an hereditary keeper. There
was nothing strange about this. In the middle ages such offices
were frequently held by hereditary right, just as in the East
everybody takes up his father’s business as a matter of religious
duty. Earl Curzon once pointed out to the electors of Oldham that
in India there are still hereditary tailors, who did their work very
well. However this may be with tailors in the East and legislators
in the West, the hereditary keeper of Edward’s palace of
Westminster did not prove to be a very effective custodian of his
master’s property. His name was John Shenche or Senche, and
he held two hereditary offices, that of “keeper of the king’s palace
at Westminster,” and also the keepership of the Fleet prison, in
right of his wife Joan, who had inherited both from her father.
Thus in addition to the keepership of the palace John Shenche
“kept” the king’s prison of the Fleet in the city of London. As a
rule, John and his wife Joan had their habitation in the prison in
the City. John, therefore, employed as his deputy at Westminster
an underling, a certain William of the Palace, who kept, or rather
did not keep, for him the king’s palace at Westminster. However,
early in the year 1303, John left his abode in the City where his
wife remained, and took up his quarters in the palace. Apparently
the prison was not so comfortable a place for an easy-going
officer to live in as the palace. Perhaps, too, the domestic
restraints imposed upon Shenche in the city were burdensome to
him. Certainly gay times now ensued in the deserted palace.
Soon John and William, in the absence of the higher authorities,
seem to have gathered together a band of disreputable boon
companions of both sexes, whose drunken revels and scandalous
misconduct were soon notorious throughout the neighbourhood.
One element in this band of revellers was, I regret to say, a
certain section of the monks of the neighbouring monastery. For
as the absence of the king and the court had left the palace
asleep, as it were, so also had the monastery at Westminster
sunk into a deeper and more scandalous slumber.
The enthusiasm, effort, and excitement which had marked the
period of Henry III’s reconstruction of Westminster Abbey had
now died down. Mediaeval man, though zealous and full of ideas,
was seldom persistent. It is a commonplace of history that when
the first impulse of fervour that attended a new order or a new
foundation had passed away, religious activity was followed by a
strong reaction. The great period of the monastery at Westminster
had been during its reconstitution under Henry III, but that time of
energy had now worked itself out, and the abbey had gone to
sleep. The work of reconstruction had stopped from lack of funds;
the royal favour as well as the royal presence was withdrawn
gradually from the abbey. Moreover, a few years earlier a
disastrous fire devastated the monastic buildings, and only just
spared the chapter house and the abbey church. It looks as if
the monks had to camp out in half-ruined buildings till their home
could be restored. All this naturally relaxed the reins of discipline,
the more so since the abbot, Walter of Wenlock, was an old
man, whose hold on the monks was slight, and some of the chief
officers of the abbey, the obedientiaries, as they were called,
were singularly incompetent or unscrupulous persons. It followed
naturally that many of the fifty monks became slack beyond
ordinary standards of mediaeval slackness. It was both from
obedientiaries and common monks that John Shenche and
William of the Palace secured the companions for their unseemly
revels. There now comes upon the scene a new figure, in fact,
the hero of the burglary, Richard of Pudlicott.

Richard of Pudlicott began life as a clerk, but abandoned his

clergy for the more profitable calling of a wandering trader in
wool, cheese, and butter. England’s economic position in those
days reminds us of the state of things now prevailing in Argentina
or Australia, rather than that in modern industrial England. She
had little to sell abroad save raw materials, especially wool, which
was largely exported to the great clothing towns of Flanders. This
traffic took Pudlicott to Ghent and Bruges in 1298, when Edward
I had allied with the Flemings against the king of France. But his
trading adventures were as unsuccessful as the king’s military
efforts in Flanders. Moreover, after the king’s return to England,
Pudlicott had the ill luck to be among those merchants arrested
as a surety for the debts which Edward had left behind him in
the Low Countries. This unceremonious treatment of an alien ally
is a method of mediaeval frightfulness which may be
recommended to our alien enemies, but Edward’s credit was so
bad that we can hardly blame the Flemings for leaving no stone
unturned to obtain payment of their debts; whether they
succeeded I do not know. Before long Richard escaped from his
Flemish gaol, leaving his property in Flanders in the hands of his
captors. Nursing a grievance against the king, and with dire
poverty facing him, he took lodgings in London, where, like many
bankrupts, he seems to have generally had enough money to
indulge in all the personal gratifications that he had a special
mind to practice. It seems that in the pursuit of his disreputable
pleasures, Pudlicott was brought into contact with John Shenche,
William of the Palace, and the other merrymakers, lay and
ecclesiastical, in the lodge of the king’s palace of Westminster.
He had a specious excuse for haunting Westminster Hall. He was
—he says himself—seeking a remedy in the king’s courts for the
property he had lost in Flanders. How he could find one, when
these courts were at York, I cannot say. But, as we shall see,
many of Pudlicott’s personal statements are difficult to reconcile
with facts. However, Edward himself soon came to Westminster,
but withdrew after a short stay, leaving Pudlicott unpaid.

We have seen how near was the palace to the abbey, and
how the palace keeper’s monastic friends formed a living bridge
between the two. One result of these pleasant social relations
was that the Abbey of Westminster soon became familiar ground
to Pudlicott. One day, when disturbed at the hopelessness of
getting his grievances redressed by the king, he wandered
through the cloisters of the abbey, and noticed with greedy eyes
the rich stores of silver plate carried in and out of the refectory of
the monks, by the servants who were waiting on the brethren at
meals. The happy idea struck him to seek a means to “enable
him to come at the goods which he saw”. Thus the king’s
foundation might, somewhat irregularly, be made to pay the king’s
debts. Pudlicott soon laid his plans accordingly. The very day
after the king left Westminster, Pudlicott found a ladder reared up
against a house near the palace gate. He put this ladder against
one of the windows of the chapter house; he climbed up the
ladder; found a window that opened by means of a cord; opened
the window and swung himself by the same cord into the chapter
house. Thence he made his way to the refectory, and secured a
rich booty of plate which he managed to carry off and sell.

Pudlicott’s success with the monks’ plate did not profit him for
long. Within nine months—and we may believe surely this part of
his not too veracious tale—the proceeds of the sale of the silver
cups and dishes of the abbey had been eaten up. No doubt the
loose life he was living and the revels with the keepers of the
palace involved a constant need for plentiful supplies of ready
cash. Anyhow by the end of 1302 Richard was again destitute,
and looking out for something more to steal. It was, doubtless,
dangerous to rob the monks any more, and perhaps the intimacy
which was now established between him and his monastic boon
companions suggested to Richard a more excellent way of
restoring his fortunes. His plan was now to rob the king’s
treasury, and his success seemed assured since, as he tells us,
he “knew the premises of the abbey, where the treasury was, and
how he might come to it”. How he profited by his knowledge we
shall soon see, but first we must for a moment part company
with Pudlicott’s “confession,” which up to now I have followed
with hesitation. But for the next stage of our story it is plainly
almost the contrary of the truth. Before we can with advantage
explain why we can no longer trust his tale, it would be well for
us to state what this treasury was and how it could be got at.
Let us begin with the word treasury. In the fourteenth century
treasury meant simply a storehouse, or at its narrowest a
storehouse of valuables. To us the “treasury” is the government
department of finance, but under Edward I the state office of
finance was the Exchequer, which, as we saw, was located
normally at Westminster, but since 1298 at York. When at
Westminster the Exchequer had a “treasury” or storehouse there