18CV745

URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING

Course Title: URBAN TRANSPORTATION AND PLANNING
As per Choice Based Credit System (CBCS) scheme] SEMESTER: VII
Subject Code: 18CV745 IA Marks 40
Number of Lecture Hours/Week 03 Exam Marks 60
Total Number of Lecture Hours 40 Exam Hours 03
CREDITS –03 Total Marks- 100
Course Objectives:
This course will enable students to;
1. Understand and apply basic concepts and methods of urban transportation planning.
2. Apprise about the methods of designing, conducting and administering surveys to provide the data
required for transportation planning.
3. Understand the process of developing an organized mathematical modelling approach to solve
select urban transportation planning problem.
4. Excel in use of various types of models used for travel forecasting, prediction of future travel
Patterns.

Module -1
Urban Transport Planning:
Urbanization, urban class groups, transportation problems and identification, impacts of transportation,
urban transport system planning process, modeling techniques in planning. Urban mass transportation
systems: urban transit problems, travel demand, types of transit systems, public, private, para-transit
Transport, mass and rapid transit systems, BRTS and Metro rails, capacity, merits and comparison of
systems, coordination, types of coordination. L1,L2, L3
Module -2
Data Collection and Inventories:
Collection of data – Organization of surveys and Analysis, Study Area, Zoning, Types and Sources of
Data, Road Side Interviews, Home Interview Surveys, Commercial Vehicle Surveys, Sampling
Techniques, Expansion Factors, Accuracy Checks, Use of Secondary Sources, Economic data – Income
– Population – Employment – Vehicle Owner Ship. L1, L2,L3
Module -3
Trip Generation & Distribution:
UTPS Approach, Trip Generation Analysis: Zonal Models, Category Analysis, Household Models, Trip
Attraction models, Commercial Trip Rates; Trip Distribution by Growth Factor Methods. Problems on
above L3, L4
Module -4
Trip Distribution:
Gravity Models, Opportunity Models, Time Function Iteration Models. Travel demand modeling:
gravity model, opportunity models, Desire line diagram. Modal split analysis. Problems on above
L2, L3, L4, L5
Module -5
Traffic Assignment:
Diversion Curves; Basic Elements of Transport Networks, Coding, Route Properties, Path Building
Criteria, Skimming Tree, All-or-Nothing Assignment, Capacity Restraint Techniques, Reallocation of
Assigned Volumes, Equilibrium Assignment. Introduction to land use planning models, land use and
transportation interaction. L2, L3, L4, L5
Course outcomes:
After studying this course, students will be able to:
1. Design, conduct and administer surveys to provide the data required for transportation planning.
2. Supervise the process of data collection about travel behavior and analyze the data for use in
Transport planning.
3. Develop and calibrate modal split, trip generation rates for specific types of land use
developments.
4. Adopt the steps that are necessary to complete a long-term transportation plan.
Program Objectives:
1. Engineering knowledge
2. Problem analysis
3. Interpretation of data
Text Books:
*Kadiyali.L.R., ‘Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning’, Khanna Publishers, New Delhi.
*Hutchinson, B.G, ‘Introduction to Urban System Planning’, McGraw Hill.
*Khisty C.J., ‘Transportation Engineering – An Introduction’ Prentice Hall.
*Papacostas, ‘Fundamentals of Transportation Planning’, Tata McGraw Hill.
Reference Books:
*Mayer M and Miller E, ‘Urban Transportation Planning: A decision oriented Approach’, McGraw Hill.
*Bruton M.J., ‘Introduction to Transportation Planning’, Hutchinson of London.
*Dicky, J.W., ‘Metropolitan Transportation Planning’, Tata McGraw Hill.
Module -1
Urban transport planning: Urbanization, urban class groups, transportation problems and
identification, impacts of transportation, urban transport system planning process, modeling
techniques in planning. Urban mass transportation systems: urban transit problems, travel
demand, types of transit systems, public private, para-transit transport, mass and rapid transit
systems, BRTS and Metro rails, capacity, merits and comparison of systems, coordination, types
of coordination.
  It must be continuous & uniform in its course, so that movement cross it only once.

METHODS OF TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATION

Trip generation models are based upon the following methods:
1. Regression Analysis
 Zonal Regression methods
 Household Regression methods
2. Category Analysis
3. Expansion factor methods

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The most common technique employed in establishing trip generation is multiple linear
regression which fits mathematical relationships between dependent and independent
variable. In the case of trip generation equation, the dependent variable is the number of
trips and the independent variable are the various measurable factors that influence trip
generation like land use and socio-economic characteristics. The general form of the
equation can be expressed in the following form:
Yp=a1X1+a1X2+a3X3+…….anXn+U
 Yp= number of trips for specified purpose p
 X1, X2, X3,……., Xn=independent variables relating to for example, land-use, socio
 economic factors etc.
 a1, a2, a3,……, an= Coefficients of the respective independent variables X1, X2, X3,……., Xn,
obtained by linear regression analysis
 U= Distribution term, which is a constant and representing that portion of the value of
Ypnot explained by the independent variables.
The equation of the above form is developed from the present-day data pertaining to
independent variables and dependent variables and the dependent variables, using statistical
techniques of “least squares “fitting. The equation thus developed is used for determining
the future values of trips, knowing the estimated future values of the independent
variables.

For Example:

Y = 2.18 + 3.404 A + 0.516 H + 0.0119 X1 – 0.343 X2

Where
Y= average trips per occupied
Dwelling unit
A= car ownership
H=household size
X1= social rank index
X2= urbanization index

Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and their validity in trip generationanalysis

The statistical theory of Multi linear regression analysis is based on the following
importantassumptions
1. All the variables are independent of each other
2. All the variables are normally distributed
3. All the variables are continuous
4. A liner relationship exists between the dependent variable and the independent variable:
5. Influence of independent variable is additive that is the inclusion of each variable in
theequation contributes a distinct portion of trip numbers.
It is difficult to ensure that the above basic assumptions are satisfied in most of the trip
generation studies. Firstly, the so-called independent variables in the regression equations
are not truly independent of each other, and some sort of correlation normally exists among
them. The variables such as car-ownership, family income, residential density etc. are all
inter-related to certain extent. Secondly, many of these variables are, strictly speaking, not
normally distributed. Finally, some of them are not continuous variables, an example
being the car ownership. The number of cars owned by a family can only be a discrete
 variable.

Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations

The following criteria should generally be applied in evaluating and selecting a regression
equation
1. The multiple correlation coefficient should have a value at least 0.75 or even higher.
Avalue close to 1.0 shows a very good correlation
2. The standard error of the estimate of the dependent variable should be sufficiently small.
3. The F test should be carried out to examine evidence of the degree of certainty that
ameaning full relationship exists between the dependent and independent variables.
4. The equation should have accuracy, validity, simplicity and sharpness and constancy.

Zonal Regression and Household Regression Methods (Aggregated and Disaggregated

Analysis)
Multiple linear regression analysis of two types:
1. Aggregated, or zonal least-square regression, where each traffic zone is treated as
oneobservation.
2. Disaggregated, or Household least-square regression, where each household is treated
asan observation.

Zonal Regression Method (Aggregated Analysis)

In the case of zonal regression, the study area is divided into a number of zones. Each
traffic zone is treated as one observation. The aggregated analysis which is most widely
used is based on the assumption that contiguous households exhibit a certain amount of
similarity in travel characteristics. The dependent variable is some measure of the zonal
trip ends and the independent variables are typically the number of households, number of
workers, number of cars, total incomes etc. Alternatively, the variables are expressed as
mean values for the zones. This assumption allows the data in a zone to be grouped and the
mean values of the independent variable used in further calculation. Sufficiently large
survey data is needed to get reliable results.

Disadvantages of Zonal Regression Models:

Among the prominent drawbacks of the zonal regression models are the followings
i) The analysis masks the variation in the data
ii) Inefficient utilization of data.
iii) Dependency of the models on the type of zoning system adopted.
iv) Inadequate capabilities for prediction of situations where real differences exist
betweencalibrated and forecast data.
v) The zone sample mean is not a reliable estimate of the population mean.
vi) The assumption that zones are to a large extent homogeneous with respect to
 characteristics is not found to be generally correct. The within zone variance
associated with travel demand are large in relation to between zone variances. In
other words, these parameters exhibit a degree of heterogeneity within zones.
vii) Sometimes there are ecological correlations associated with zonally aggregated
relationships.
viii) Simple reduction in zone size leads to enormous increase in sampling errors which
are not permitted, besides a large number of smaller zones present problems at
subsequent stages of trip distribution and assignment models. Therefore, this,
severely restricts theusefulness of models for small scale planning applications.
Household least squares regression analysis (Disaggregated Analysis):

The logical extension to the arguments favoring a reduction in zone size is to develop data
base that makes no reference to zone boundaries. One consideration is to treat this at
household level. The dominating Influence of the head of household implies that the trip
making activity of the household members can only be accurately predicted through a
knowledge of total household characteristics. It would appear, then, that the household
can reasonably be considered as a behavioral trip-making unit and therefore, treated as the
basis for the trip end estimatingprocedure.
In the household regression analysis, each household is considered as a separate input data,
so thatthe wide observed variation in household characteristics and household trip making
behaviour is incorporated into the models. The attempt, here, is to explain the total
variation between households, as against the variation between zones, explained by zonal
models.
The variables considered are between the number of trips per household per day and the
household characteristics such as family size (persons), employees per household, car
ownership per household, household income etc.
Compared to aggregated analysis, disaggregated analysis produces better results and is
consideredmore likely to be stable over time and to provide more reliable future estimates.
Disadvantages of multiple-linear regression analysis technique

Some of the disadvantages associated with the assumptions made in the linear regression
techniqueare as follows:
 The equation derived is purely empirical in nature and fails to establish a meaningful
relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
 The technique is based on the premise that the regression coefficients initially
established will still remain unchanged in the future and can be used in the regression
equation for predicting future travel. How far the prediction is valid in future is a main
question
 Difficulties arise in evaluation the effect of statistical problems relating to non-linearity
 ofthe response surface and high correlation amongst the explanatory variables.

CATEGORY ANALYSIS OR CROSS–CLASSIFICATION

The method is based on estimating the response (e.g. the number of trip productions per
householdfor a given purpose) as a function of household attributes. The average response
or average value of the dependent variable is determined for certain defined categories of
the independent variables. A multi-dimensional matrix defines the categories, each
dimension in the matrix representing one independent variable. The independent variables
themselves are classified into a definite number of discrete class intervals.

Assumptions

1) The household is the fundamental unit in the tri generation process, and most journeys
begin or end in response to the requirements of the family.
2) The trip generated by the household depend upon the characteristics of that household
and its location relative to its required facilities such as shops, school and work place.
Household with one set of characteristics generate different rates of trips from
householdswith other set of characteristics.
3) Three prime factors affecting the amount of travel a household produces: car-
ownership, income and household structure. Within each of the three factors, limited
number of ranges are established to describe the trip generating capacity of a household by a
limited numberof categories.
4) Trip generation rates are relatively stable over a time so long as factors external to
thehousehold are the same as when the trips were first measured.
The cross-classification model is based on the assumption that the number of trips generated
bysimilar households or households belonging to the sample category is the same.

Categorization of Households
Households categorization based on three factors
Car ownership – Income
3 – 6 classes Household structure- 6 classes
classes
 < 5000 p.a.  No employed residents and one non-
 0 car  5000-10,000 p.a. employed adult
 1 car  10,000-15,000  No employed residents and 2 or more
 > 1 car p.a. non-employed adult
 15,000-20,000  One employed resident and one or
p.a. less non-employed adult
 20,000-25,000  One employed resident and two or
p.a. more non-employed adult
 >25,000 p.a.  Two or more employed residents and
one or less non-employed adult
 Two or more employed residents and
two or more non-employed adult

The above system of categorization will give 108 (3x6x6) categories. It is also possible to
considerdifferent modes of travel and trip purposes to get more combinations.
As an example of this model let x be a zone. There are Pxy households in category y and if
Qk is the average rate of trip generation per household in category y then the relation for
the trip generated by zone x, Tx is given by
𝑇𝑥 = 𝑃𝑦𝑥 × 𝑄𝑘
Example: Cross Classification of households by size and ownership
To illustrate cross classification let us consider two variable groups that affect residential
trip generation: family size and auto ownership. For each zone of metropolitan area, data
are recorded according to the number of households, as well as the number of trips made
by those households, for cross classification of family size and automobile ownership
(Table 5.2). From these data a matrix is constructed with the average trip rates for
different types of households recorded in the individual cell (Table 5.3). To predict trip-
generation rates for each zone, the number of households in each cell of matrix is
estimated for the target or forecast year (Table 5.4). The rates of trip making for a given
cross-classified category are multiplied by the number of households in that category. For
example in Table 5.5, it is estimated that in the forecast year there will be 79 households
with three members who own one automobile, the cross-classification model predicts the
households in this zone will make 559 trips in the forecast year, based on the present trip
generation rate 7.08 trips per household.
Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

Advantages:
i. Cross-classification groupings are independent of the zone system of the study area.
The whole concept of the household trip making is simplified in this technique. It
categorizes the household according to certain socio-economic characteristics and
thisappears rational.
ii. Unlike regression analysis technique, no mathematical relationship is derived
between trip making and house hold characteristics. This takes away many of the
statistical drawbacks of the regression analysis.
iii. Since data from the census can be used directly, it saves considerable amount of
 effort,time and money spent on home interview survey.
iv. The computations are relatively simple.
v. Since disaggregate data are used, the technique simulates human behaviour more
realistically than the zonal aggregation process normally employed in regression
analysis.
Disadvantages:
i. It is difficult to test the statistical significance of the various explanatory variables.
There is no statistical goodness-of-fit measure for the model, so only aggregate
closeness to the calibration data can be ascertained.
ii. The technique normally makes use of studies in the past made elsewhere, with
broad corrections.
iii. Large samples are needed to assign trip rates to any one category. otherwise cell
values will vary in reliability because of the differences in the number of households
being available for calibration at each one.
iv. The model does not permit extrapolation beyond its calibration strata, although the
lowest or highest class of a variable may be open ended.
v. New variables cannot be introduced at a future date.

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. After having obtained
an estimate of the trips generated from and attracted to the various zones, it is necessary to
determine the direction of travel. Trip distribution models begin with the number of trip
ends generated by each zone and answer the question, “What zone are the trips going to
and coming from?” The number of trips generated in every zone of the area under study has
to be apportioned to the various zones to which these trips are attracted. These generated
trips from each zone is then distributed to all other zones based on the choice of
destination. This is called trip distribution which forms the second stage of travel demand
modeling.
It is the procedure utilized to distribute the generated trips from each zone to any other zone. The trip
distribution matrices b/w the origin & destination are developed as shown in the sketch. The two known
sets of trip ends are connected together without specifying the actual route and sometimes without
reference to travel modes.
Jo {= attraction}
Destination zones
Sl.no 1 2 3 4 N Σ
1
T1-1 T1-2 T1-3 T1-4 T1-N P1
2 T2-1 T2-2 T2-3 T2-4 T2-N P2
3 T3-1 T3-2 T3-3 T3-4 T3-N P3
4 T4-1 T4-2 T4-3 T4-4 T4-N P4
N Tn-1 Tn-2 Tn-3 Tn-4 Tn-N PN
Σ A1 A2 A3 A4 AN x

Σ P → Total Trip Production

Σ A → Total Trip Production
Any trip production matrix should satisfy the following two basic conditions or constrained
equations.
All produced trips are distributed i.e sum of trip interchanges to all attraction zones should be
equal to the trip production magnitude estimated during trip generation analysis for all zones.
All attracted trips should be distributed i.e the sum of trip interchanges from all production zones
must be equal to the trip attraction magnitude estimated during trip generation phase for all zones.
These are expressed mathematically as follows:
Pi2 = Σ tij2
Hj2 = Σ tij2
Where, Σ tij2 → no. of trips produced in zone I & attracted to zone j by q type TM.
Pi2 → no. of trips produced in the zone I by q type trip makers.
Hj2 → total no. of trips attracted to zone j by q type trip makers.

DEFINITIONS AND NOTATIONS

Trip matrix

The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or origin-destination (O-D) matrix.
This is a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns represent each of the zones in the study area.
The horizontal axis of the matrix represents the zones of attractions (destinations D), 1, 2, 3,……j…n and the
vertical axis represents the zones of generations (origin, O), 1, 2, 3,…..i…n. The number of trips indicated at the
intersection of any zone of origin and attraction e.g. t i-j represents the number of trips originating in zone i and
terminating in zone j. The total of any individual row, i, represents the total number of trips generated in zone,
i.e. pi. Similarly the total of any individual column, j, represents the number.

METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION:

In trip distribution, two known sets of trip ends are connected together, without specifying the
actual route and sometimes without reference to travel mode, to form a trip matrix between known
origins and destinations.
There are two types of TD methods:
i. Growth factor methods
ii. Synthetic methods
1. Growth factor methods
These methods simply depend on fast growth rates in order to predict trips. Such co-relation can be developed
with

→ Growth of traffic

→ Increase in population

→ Agricultural & industrial production

→ Total mileage of roads

→ Petrol consumption estimate

→ Per capita income

→ national gross product

• GROWTH FACTOR METHODS:

The growth factor methods are based on the assumption that the present travel patterns can be projected to
the design year in the future by using certain expansion factors. It assume that in the future the trip-making
pattern will remain substantially the same as today but that the volume of trips will increase according to the
growth of the generating and attracting zones. These methods are simpler than synthetic methods and for small
towns where considerable changes in land-use and external factors are not expected, they have often been
considered adequate. Growth factor methods have been used in earlier studies but have yielded place now to
the more rational synthetic models.

The following are the important growth factor methods:

1. Uniform factor method

2. Average factor method

3. Fratar method

4. Furness method
• Detroit method

But due to fast changing rate & complexity of urban area these methods are outdated and their use is confined
to short term forecasting in small urban or rural areas. Therefore, the other two computer oriented
mathematical methods are more popular now-a-day.

2. Synthetic methods
• Gravity model

• Tanner s model

• Intervening opportunities model

• Competing opportunities model

• Linear programming approach

In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying

causes of movements between places, and relationships are established between trips and
measures of attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an
important advantage that they can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but
also to synthesis the base-year flows. The necessity of having to survey every individual
cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated and the cost of data collection is reduced. The
synthetic methods are as give below:
Trip Distribution using Growth Factor

Growth factor methods assume that in the future the trip-making pattern will remain
substantially the same as today but that the volume of trips will increase according to the
growth of the generating and attracting zones. These methods are simpler than synthetic
methods and for small towns where considerable changes in land-use and external factors
are not expected, they have often been considered adequate.
Uniform Growth Factor Method
This method also known as Constant Factor Method assumes that all zones will increase
in a uniform manner and that the existing traffic pattern will be the same for the future
when growth is taken into account. This was the earliest method to be used, the basic
assumption being that the growth which is expected to take place in the survey area will
have an equal effect on all the tripsin the area. The relationship between present and future
trips can be expressed by

𝑇𝑖−𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖−𝑗 × 𝐸
Where,
 Ti-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)
 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
 E is the constant factor derived by dividing the future number of trip ends expected in
 the survey area by the existing number of trip ends.
This method suffers from following disadvantages:
 The assumption of a uniform growth factor rate for the entire study is not correct, but
each zone will have its own growth rate and the rate of growth of traffic movement
between anytwo zones will be different.
 The method under estimates movements where present day development is limited and
over estimates movements where present day development is intensive. It will tend to
overestimate the trips between densely developed zones, which probably have little
development potential, and underestimate the future trips between underdeveloped
zones, which are likely to be extremely developed in the future. It will also fail to make
provision for zones which are at present undeveloped and which may generate a
considerable numberof trips in the future.
 If the present trip movement between any two zones is zero, the future trip movement
alsobecomes zero as per this method. This may rarely be in the case of reality.
UNIFORM GROWTH FACTOR METHOD:
 It is the oldest growth factor method which is based on the assumption that the growth
rate for whole area is valid for predicting inter-zonal trips. A single growth factor ‘E’ for
the entire area under study is calculated by dividing the total no. of future trip ends
expected in the survey area for the design year by the trip ends in the base year. The
future trips b/w zones ‘I’ & ‘j’, Tij are calculated by applying the uniform factor ‘E’ to the
base year trips b/w the zones I & j. hence Tij = tij × E.
DISADVANTAGES:
 The assumption of uniform growth factor for the entire study is not correct.
 It under estimates the movement where present-day development is limited and
overestimates the movements where present-day development is intensive.
 If the present trip movement b/w any two zones is zero the future trip movement also
becomes zero as her this method.
 problem
 The distribution of present trips among the zones 1, 2, & 3 are shown in the O/D matrix
as shown. The future trips generated in zones 1, 2 & 3 are expected to be 360, 1260 &
3120 respectively. It is to be distributed by using constant factor method.
 O/D 1 2 3 ti Ti
 1 60 100 200 360 360
 2 100 20 300 420 1260
 3 200 300 20 520 3120
Σ ti = 1300 Σ Ti 4740

E = Σ Ti/ Σ ti 4740/1300 = 3.343

  O/D 1 2 3 ti Ti
 1 219 365 729 1313 360
 2 365 73 1094 1532 1260
 3 729 1094 73 1896 3120
 Σ ti = 4740 Σ Ti 4740

AVERAGE GROWTH FACTOR METHOD:

 This method takes into account the fact that the rates of development in the zones are
normally different from the rate per urban area as a whole. It utilizes a different growth
factor per each zone to predict the inter-zonal movement. The present inter zonal
volumes are multiplied by avg of two zonal growth factors involved. It represents the
avg growth associated with truth origin & destination zones. The principle employed is
shown by the following mathematical relationship.
 Ti-j = ti-j [Ei + Ej /2]
 Where, Ti-j → future trips from zone I to zone j
 ti-j → present trips from zone I to zone j
 Ei → Pi/Pi = future generated trips for zone I / present generated trips for zone i
 Ej → Aj/aj = future attracted trips for zone j / present attracted trips for zone j
 After the distribution is completed on the above basis it will be seen that the sums of
trips from zone, I will probably not agree with the projected trip ends in the j. so the
iterative process is used to overcome this difficulty by using new values of Ei and Ej
which are calculated by
 Ei′= Pi/Pi
 Ej′ = Aj/aj
 Where Pi′ & aj′ are total trip productions and attractions for the zones I & j respectively
which are obtained from first stage of iteration. Iterations are carried out till the growth
factor variation is by 1%.
DISADVANTAGES:
 It has the same disadvantages as that of uniform factor method. The multiplying factor
has no real significance and is used only to balance the movements. There is no
explanation of movement b/w the zones and the factors causing the movements.
 It has an additional disadvantage that large no. of iterations are required. Therefore, this
method is rarely used nowadays except for updating the existing stable and uniform
data for trip result.

Average Factor Method

This method attempts to take into account the varying rates of growth of trip-making
 which can be expected in the differing zones of a survey area. The average growth factor
used is that which refers to the origin end and the destination end of the trip and is
obtained for each zone as in the constant factor method. Expressed mathematically, this
can be stated to be
𝐸𝑖 + 𝐸𝑗
𝑇𝑖−𝑗 = 𝑡𝑖−𝑗 [ ]
2

whereTi-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)

 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
 Ei = Pi/pi = generated trips growth factor for zone i
 Ej = Aj/aj = attracted trips growth factor for zone j
 Pi = future generated trips of zone i,
 pi = present generated trips of zone i,
 Aj = future attracted trips of zone j,
 aj = present attracted trips of zone j.
At the completion of the process, the attractions and productions will not agree with the
future estimates ( sum of trips from zone 1 will probably not agree with the projected trip
ends in zone I and the sum of trips to zone j will not agree with the projected trip ends in
zone j). Hence the procedure must be iterated using as new values for Ei and Ej (Ei’ and
Ej’) calculated as follows.
𝑃𝑖
𝐸′ =
𝑖
𝑝′
𝑖

𝐴𝑗
𝐸′ =
𝑗
𝑎′
𝑗

where p’i and a’j are the total productions and attractions of zones i and j respectively,
obtained from the first distribution of trips. The process is iterated using successive values
of p’i and a’j untilthe growth factor approaches unity and the successive values of t’ij and tij
are within 1 to 5 percent depending upon the accuracy required in the trip distribution.

 The average factor method suffers from many of the disadvantages of the constant
factor method.
 The multiplying factor has no real significance and is only a convenient toll to balance
the movements. There is no explanation of the movement between zones and the
factors causing the movement.
 In addition if a large number of iterations are required.
Because of theses drawbacks the method is rarely used nowadays except for updating
existing stable and uniform data for quick results.
 Fratar Method
This method was introduced by T. J. Fratar to overcome some of the disadvantages of the constant
factor and average factor methods. According to this method, the total trips for each zone are

distributed to the inter zonal movements, as a first approximation, according to relative

attractiveness of each movement. Thus, the future trips estimated for any zone would be distributed
to the movements involving that zone in proportion to the existing trips between it and each other
zone and in proportion to the expected growth of each other zone. This may be expressed as

Where,
Ti-j = Future trips from zone i to zone j
ti-j = Present trips from zone i to zone j

Pi = Future trips produced at zone i

pi = Present trips attracted at zone i
Ai = Future trips attracted to zone j
aj = Present trips attracted to zone j

k = Total numbers of zones

When the future traffic into and out of all zones is similarly distributed, each interzonal trip has
been assigned two tentative values – one the result of the distribution for one of the zones involved
and the other, the result of the distribution for the other zone involved. As a first approximation
those pairs of tentative values are averaged. A new ‘growth factor’ for each zone is then calculated
and the distribution process is repeated.
The procedure is laborious except for simple problems, but can be conventionally tackled by a
computer. It has the same drawbacks as other growth factor models and is unable to forecast trips
for those areas which were predominantly under-developed during the base year. It does not take
into account the effects of changes in accessibility for various portions of the study area
Furness Method
The method was devised by K. P. Furness is also iterative in nature. For this the estimates of future
traffic originating and terminating at each zone are required, thus yielding origin growth factors
and destination growth factors for each zone. The traffic movements are made to agree alternately
with the future traffic originating in each zone and the estimated future terminating in each zone,
until both these conditions are roughly satisfied. The Furness method gives results similar to Fratar,
but requires less computation.
Criticism of Growth Factor Methods

The following are some of the disadvantages of the growth factor methods:

1. Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first, for which large scale O–D studies
with high sampling sizes are needed so as to estimate the smaller zone-to-zone movements
accurately
2.The error in original data collected on specific zone-to-zone movements gets magnified.
3. None of the methods provide a measure of the resistance to travel and all imply that
resistance to travel will remain constant. They neglect the effect of changes in travel pattern by
the construction of new facilities and new network.
Despite the above shortcomings, the growth factor methods are relatively simpler to use and
understand. They can be used for studies of small areas and for updating stable and uniform data.

In such cases, a set of intermediate correction coefficients are calculated which are then
appropriately applied to cell entries in each row or column. After applying these corrections to say
each row, totals for each column are calculated and compared with the target values. If the
differences are significant, correction coefficients are calculated and applied as necessary. The
procedure is given below:
Process:
1. Set bj =1
2. with bj solve for ai to satisfy trip generation constraint
3. with ai solve bj to satisfy trip attraction constraint
4. update matrix and check for errors
5. repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.
 Example

The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three zones is given below. The productions
from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon year is expected to grow to 98, 106, and 122 respectively.
The attractions from these zones are expected to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively. Compute
the trip matrix for the horizon year using doubly constrained growth factor model using Furness
method.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Synthetic Models
In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying
causes of movement between places and relationships are established between trips and
measures of attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an
important advantage that they can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but
also to synthesis the base-year flows. The necessity of having to survey every individual
cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated and the cost of data collection is reduced.
1. Gravity model
One of the well-known synthetic models is the Gravity Model. Based in Newton’s
concept of gravity, the model as proposed by Voorhees assumes that the interchange of
trips between zones in an area is dependent upon the relative attraction between the zones
and the spatial separation between them as measured by an appropriate function of
distance. This function of spatial separation adjusts the relative attraction of each zone for
the ability, desire or necessity of the trip maker to overcome the spatial separation.
Whereas the trip interchange is directly proportional to the relative attraction between the
zones, it is inversely proportional to the measure of spatial separation.
A simple equation representing the above relationship is of the following form:

Wherere,
e
Ti-j = Trips between zones i and j
Pi = Ttrips produced in zone i
Aj = Trips attracted to zone j
dij = distance between zone i and j, or the time or cost of traveling
between them
t
K h k= A constant, usually independent of i
e
m
n n= An exponential constant, whose value is usually found to lie 1 & 3
k k= Total number of zones
The following formulation was also used in earlier studies dispersing with the
proportionality constant:
Where, Ti-j, Pi, Aj, di-k and n have the same meaning as given earlier.

In order to simplify the computation requirements of the model, the following formulation has
been frequently used;

,
T=i-j Trips produced in Zone i and attracted to zone j
P=i Trips produced in zone i
A=j Trips attracted to zone j
Fi-j Empirically derived travel time factor which expresses the average area-wide=
effect of spatial separation on trip interchange between zones i and j
Ki-j = A specific zone-to-zone adjustment factor to allow for the incorporation of
the effect on travel patterns of defined social or economic linkages not otherwise
accounted for inthe gravity model formulation
kk= Total number of zones
m=m Iteration number
p=p Trip purpose

The above relationship can be used for determining the trip interchange for
each trippurpose and each mode of travel.

2. Tanner’s Model
Tanner has suggested that the inverse of nth power, 1/(di-j)n in the gravity model
formula cannot give valid estimates at both very small and very large distances. In this
place he proposes the function eλd/dn, where λ and n are constants. The new formula
suggested by him is of the form:

Where
t1-2 = = Number of journey per day between the two places 1 and 2
M = = A constant
P1 and P2== Ppopulations, or other measures of size of the two places
d1-2 = Distance between places 1 and 2 or the time or cost
oftraveling between them
C1 and C2 = Constants, one for each place, C1 being defined by
 3. Opportunity Model
Opportunity models are based on the statistical theory of probability as the theoretical
foundation.The concept has been pioneered by Schneider and developed by subsequent
studies.
The two well-known models are:
1. The intervening opportunities models;

2. The competing opportunities model.

The opportunity models can be represented by the general formula:
Tij = Oi P (Di)

3.1 Intervening Opportunities Model

In the intervening opportunities model, it is assumed that the trip interchange
between and origin and a destination zone is equal to the total trips emanating from the
origin zone multiplied by the probability that each trip will find and acceptable terminal
at the destination. It is further assumed that the probability that a destination will be
acceptable is determined by two zonal characteristics: the size of the destination and the
order in which it is encountered as trips proceedfrom the origin. The probability functions
in above equation P(Dj), may then be expressed as the difference between the probability
that the trip origins at i will find a suitable terminal in one of the destinations, ordered by
closeness to i, up to and including j, and the probability that they will find a suitable
terminal in the destination up to but excluding j. The following equation represents

mathematically this concept:

,
= Ti-j = Predicted number of trips from zone i to j
= Qi = Total number of trips originating in zone i
L= = Probability density of destination acceptability at the point of consideration
N
A = Number of origins between i and j when arranged in order of closeness
B = Number of destinations between i and j when arranged in order of closeness
It may be noted that:
A = B + Dj

3.2 Competing Opportunities Model

In the competing opportunities model, the adjusted probability of a trip ending in a
zone is the product of two independent probabilities, viz., the probability of a trip being
attracted to a zone and the probability of a trip finding a destination in that zone. A form of
this model is given below: