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Engines That Move Markets Technology Investing From Railroads To The Internet and Beyond 2nd Edition Alasdair Nairn
Engines That Move Markets Technology Investing From Railroads To The Internet and Beyond 2nd Edition Alasdair Nairn
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Engines That Move Markets
Technology Investing from Railroads to the Internet and Beyond
Alasdair Nairn
Second Edition
“The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s
different.’ ”
Sir John Templeton
For Siobhan, Hannah, Alexandra and Lochlann
Contents
Acknowledgements
chapter 1
Making Tracks
The Industrial Revolution, canals and railways
Introduction
Funding the Industrial Revolution
The heyday of canals
The new production technology is adapted for transport
Responding to the threat
Success not guaranteed
Optimism and gearing
Heroes and villains
How the boom ended
Conclusions
chapter 2
Breaking Out
The story of the US railroads
chapter 3
chapter 4
Lighting Up
Edison and the electric lamp
chapter 5
Digging Deep
The search for oil
chapter 6
Driving Forward
The history of the automobile
chapter 7
Making Waves
The story of wireless, from Marconi to Baird
chapter 8
Making it Count
From adding machines to mainframes
chapter 9
chapter 10
The Internet
How computing timeshare became a global phenomenon
chapter 11
Publishing details
Acknowledgements
Entering into a venture such as researching and writing this book while in
full-time employment was not something that I did lightly. I took the
decision at the height of the Internet bubble of 1999–2000. The driving
force behind it was the frustration I felt in respect of what was happening in
global stock markets at the time and the dangers this was likely to present
for investors. In all likelihood the frustration I felt with stock market
gyrations was soon matched by that of my family as I disappeared off to
work on ‘the book’. For nearly 18 months I was posted missing and without
doubt I owe a large debt of gratitude to my wife for putting up with me for
this period. Nearly 20 years later, for this and many other reasons, the debt
of gratitude has only grown.
The book itself could not have been written without the assistance of an
individual with an ability to unearth information that is simply unrivalled.
Murray Scott gave up much of his spare time to help me gather the historic
financial information and put it in a useable form. It is difficult to give a
flavour of just how much information had to be collected – suffice to say
that it reached the ceiling of the room in which it was stored. What Murray
was able to find was incredible and testament to his tenacity in chasing
down information. In this he was aided by an outside world of librarians
and archivists who typically provided enthusiastic support in the search for
lost or forgotten documents. You are a wonderful group of people – thank
you.
I would also to thank those who looked at various manuscripts, including
Gordon Milne and in particular Jonathan Davis, who has edited, corrected
and improved many versions of the text, including this second updated
edition. The pair of us have since collaborated on a second book,
Templeton’s Way With Money, and a third is now in preparation. The fact
that we are still working together after all this effort is a wondrous thing and
a testament to the pleasures of collaboration.
amount of time going into detailed valuation work, partly because of the
space it would have absorbed, but mostly because the simple graphs were
sufficient to tell the story on their own.
New and updated material
For this second revised edition I had an opportunity to revisit the events of
1999–2000 with the added benefit of a rearview mirror. It is pleasing to be
able to report that most (but not every single one) of my contemporaneous
thoughts on how the Internet bubble would play out were vindicated. ‘This
time it’s different’ did not turn out to be any more true than before. Anyone
with an understanding of previous technology episodes should have been
able to navigate this mania successfully, although many investors and
entrepreneurs did not.
I have also taken the opportunity of this new edition to add some further
analysis of how the Internet evolved in practice over the 15 years since the
previous edition. As with railways and electricity, it turns out that the
visionaries who predicted that the Internet would transform the social and
economic landscape were right. We now truly live in a connected world, in
which information travels seamlessly around the world, and the daily
operations of myriad types of business have been made more efficient
through adopting the networks and communication tools of the online
world.
And yet in the stock market, which embraced the arrival of technology,
media and telecoms companies with such wild enthusiasm in the late 1990s,
the story has been somewhat different. Only a handful of the companies
which commanded lofty market capitalisations during the mania have come
close to justifying their valuations. The great majority of market comets
which lit up the sky back then simply crashed back to earth, many of them
worthless. It took more than ten years for the quoted technology sector to
regain its prior peak. The same was true for the Nasdaq index.
In the last five years, however, we have seen a strong renaissance, with the
US stock market being led to new highs by newly powerful global
companies which have emerged as the biggest winners of the transformative
technology investors were so excited about in 2000. Ironically, two of the
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The Tariff Issue of 1884.
REPUBLICAN. DEMOCRATIC.
We therefore demand that the The Democracy pledges itself to purify
imposition of duties on foreign the administration from corruption, to
imports shall be made not for restore economy, to revive respect for
“revenue only,” but that in raising the law and to reduce taxation to the lowest
requisite revenues for the limit consistent with due regard to the
government such duties shall be so preservation of the faith of the nation
levied as to afford security to our to its creditors and pensioners.
diversified industries and protection Knowing full well, however, that
to the rights and wages of the legislation affecting the occupations of
laborer, to the end that active and the people should be cautious and
intelligent labor, as well as capital, conservative in method, not in advance
may have its just award and the of public opinion, but responsive to its
laboring man his full share in the demands, the Democratic party is
national prosperity. Against the so- pledged to revise the tariff in a spirit of
called economical system of the fairness to all interests. But in making
Democratic party, which would reduction in taxes it is not proposed to
degrade our labor to the foreign injure any domestic industries, but
standard, we enter our earnest rather to promote their healthy growth.
protest. The Democratic party has From the foundation of this
failed completely to relieve the government taxes collected at the
people of the burden of unnecessary Custom House have been the chief
taxation by a wise reduction of the source of Federal revenue; such they
surplus. must continue to be. Moreover, many
industries have come to rely upon
The Republican party pledges itself legislation for successful continuance,
to correct the inequalities of the tariff so that any change of law must be at
and to reduce the surplus, not by the every step regardful of the labor and
vicious and indiscriminate process of capital thus involved. The process of
horizontal reduction, but by such reform must be subject in the execution
methods as will relieve the taxpayer to this plain dictate of justice.
without injuring the laborer or the
great productive interests of the All taxation shall be limited to the
country. requirements of economical
government. The necessary reduction
We recognize the importance of in taxation can and must be effected
sheep husbandry in the United without depriving American labor of
States, the serious depression which the ability to compete successfully with
it is now experiencing and the danger foreign labor and without imposing
threatening its future prosperity, and lower rates of duty than will be ample
we therefore respect the demands of to cover any increased cost of
the representatives of this important production which may exist in
agricultural interest for a consequence of the higher rate of wages
readjustment of duty upon foreign prevailing in this country. Sufficient
wool, in order that such industry revenue to pay all the expenses of the
shall have full and adequate Federal government economically
protection. administered, including pensions,
interest and principal of the public
We have always recommended the debt, can be got under our present
best money known to the civilized system of taxation from Custom House
world and we urge that an effort be taxes on fewer imported articles,
made to unite all commercial nations bearing heaviest on articles of luxury
in the establishment of the and bearing lightest on articles of
international standard which shall fix necessity.
for all the relative value of gold and
silver coinage. We therefore denounce the abuses of
the existing tariff and subject to the
preceding limitations we demand that
Federal taxation shall be exclusively for
public purposes and shall not exceed
the needs of the government
economically administered.
The Tariff and Revenue, 1888.
DEMOCRATIC. REPUBLICAN.
DEMOCRATIC. REPUBLICAN.
Honest reform in the Civil Service The men who abandoned the
has been inaugurated and Republican party in 1884 and continue
maintained by President Cleveland, to adhere to the Democratic party have
and he has brought the public service deserted not only the cause of honest
to the highest standard of efficiency, government, of sound finance, of
not only by rule and precept, but by freedom and purity of the ballot, but
the example of his own untiring and especially have deserted the cause of
unselfish administration of public reform in the civil service. We will not
affairs. fail to keep our pledges because they
have broken theirs or because their
candidate has broken his. We therefore
repeat our declaration of 1884, to wit:
“The reform of the Civil Service,
auspiciously begun under the
Republican administration should be
completed by the further extension of
the reform system already established
by law to all the grades of the service to
which it is applicable. The spirit and
purpose of the reform should be
observed in all executive appointments,
and all laws at variance with the object
of existing reform legislation should be
repealed, to the end that the dangers to
free institutions which lurk in the
power of official patronage may be
wisely and effectively avoided.”
Pensions, Etc., 1888.
DEMOCRATIC. REPUBLICAN.
While carefully guarding the interest The gratitude of the nation to the
to the principles of justice and equity, defenders of the Union cannot be
it has paid out more for pensions and measured by laws. The legislation of
bounties to the soldiers and sailors of Congress should conform to the pledge
the Republic than was ever paid out made by a loyal people, and be so
during an equal period. enlarged and extended as to provide
against the possibility that any man
who honorably wore the Federal
uniform shall become an inmate of an
almshouse, or dependent upon private
charity. In the presence of an
overflowing treasury it would be a
public scandal to do less for those
whose valorous service preserved the
Government. We denounce the hostile
spirit shown by President Cleveland in
his numerous vetoes of measures for
pension relief, and the action of the
Democratic House of Representatives
in refusing even a consideration of
general pension legislation.
DEMOCRATIC. REPUBLICAN.