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Textbook Introduction To Basic Statistics 1 Don Ozisco Ebook All Chapter PDF
Textbook Introduction To Basic Statistics 1 Don Ozisco Ebook All Chapter PDF
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COURSE OUTLINE (ECO107 BASIC-STATISTICS I)
everyday life
1
LECTURE ONE
Introduction:
Meaning of Statistics:
2
The word ‘statistic’ is used to refer to:
1. Numerical facts, such as the number of people living in particular area.
2. The study of ways of collecting, analyzing and interpreting these facts.
Definitions:
Statistics is defined differently by different authors over a period of time. In the
olden days statistics was confined to only state affairs but in modern days it
embraces almost every sphere of human activity. Therefore a number of old
definitions, which was confined to narrow field of enquiry, were replaced by more
definitions, which are much more comprehensive and exhaustive.
Definitions by A.L. Bowley:
Statistics are numerical statement of facts in any department of enquiry placed in
relation to each other. - A.L. Bowley
Statistics may be called the science of counting in one of the departments
according to Bowley. Obviously this is an incomplete definition as it takes into
account only the aspect of collection and ignores other aspects such as analysis,
presentation and interpretation. Bowley gives another definition for statistics,
which states ‘statistics may be rightly called the scheme of averages’. This
definition is also incomplete, as averages play an important role in understanding
and comparing data and statistics provide more measures.
Definition by Croxton and Cowden:
Statistics may be defined as the science of collection, presentation analysis and
interpretation of numerical data from the logical analysis. It is clear that the
definition of statistics by Croxton and Cowden is more scientific and realistic.
According to this definition there are four stages:
3
1. Collection of Data: It is the first step and the foundation upon which the entire
data set. Careful planning is essential before collecting the data. There are
different methods of collection of data such as census, sampling, primary,
secondary, etc., and the investigator should make use of correct method.
2. Presentation of data: The mass data collected should be presented in a
suitable, concise form for further analysis. The collected data may be presented in
tabular form, diagrammatic or graphic form.
3. Analysis of data: The data presented should be carefully analyzed for making
inference from the presented data such as measures of central tendencies,
dispersion, correlation, regression etc.
4. Interpretation of data: The final step which is the objective of statistics is
drawing conclusion from the data collected. A valid conclusion must be drawn on
the basis of analysis. A high degree of skill and experience is necessary for the
interpretation. Based on the results of statistical data analysis, decisions could be
taken, rules could be regulated, actions could be made, and polices could be
modified.
Definition by Horace Secrist:
Statistics may be defined as the aggregate of facts affected to a marked extent by
multiplicity of causes, numerically expressed, enumerated or estimated according
to a reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner, for a
predetermined purpose and placed in relation to each other. The above definition
seems to be the most comprehensive and exhaustive one.
From above, it should be clear that statistics is much more than just the
tabulation of numbers and the graphical presentation of these tabulated
4
numbers. But it is the science of gaining information from numerical and
categorical (or qualitative) data. Statistical methods can be used to find answers
to the questions like:
• What kind and how much data need to be collected?
• How should we organize and summarize the data?
• How can we analyze the data and draw conclusions from it?
• How can we assess the strength of the conclusions and evaluate their
uncertainty?
That is, statistics provides methods for
1. Design: Planning and carrying out research studies.
2. Description: Summarizing and exploring data.
3. Inference: Making predictions and generalizations about phenomena
represented by the data.
5
–Political science: How accurate are the gallops and opinion polls?
–Economics: What will be the unemployment rate next year?
–Technical problem: How to improve quality of product?
Functions of Statistics:
There are many functions of statistics. Let us consider the following five
important functions.
1. Condensation
Generally speaking the word ‘to condense’, mean to reduce or to lessen.
Condensation is mainly applied at embracing the understanding of a huge mass of
data by providing only few observations. If in a particular class in School, only
marks in an examination are given, no purpose will be served. Instead if we are
given the average mark in that particular examination, definitely it serves the
better purpose. Similarly the range of marks is also another measure of the data.
Thus, Statistical measures help to reduce the complexity of the data and
consequently to understand any huge mass of data.
2. Comparison
Classification and tabulation are two methods that are used to condense data.
They help us to compare data collected from different sources. Grand totals,
measures of central tendency, measures of dispersion, graphs and diagrams,
coefficient of correlation, etc. provide ample scope for comparison. If we have
one group of data, we can compare within it.
If the oil production (in barrels) in an oil producing region is known, then we can
compare one company with another within the region. Or, if the oil production (in
barrels) of two different regions within a country is known, then also a
6
comparative study can be made. As statistics is an aggregate of facts and figures,
comparison is always possible and in fact comparison helps us to understand the
data in a better way.
3. Forecasting
By the word forecast, we mean to predict beforehand. Given the data of the last
ten years connected to a number of births/deaths in a particular state, it is
possible to predict or forecast the births/deaths for the near future. In business
also forecasting plays a dominant role in connection with production, sales,
profits, etc. The analysis of time series and regression analysis plays an important
role in forecasting.
4. Estimation
One of the main objectives of statistics is drawing inference about a population
from the analysis of the sample drawn from that population. The four major
branches of statistical inference are
1. Estimation theory
2. Tests of Hypothesis
3. Non Parametric tests
4. Sequential analysis
In estimation theory, we estimate the unknown value of the population
parameter based on the sample observations. Suppose we are given a sample of
scores of hundred students in a department, based upon the scores of these 100
students, it is possible to estimate the average scores of all students in that
department.
5. Tests of Hypothesis
7
A statistical hypothesis is some statement about the probability distribution,
characterizing a population on the basis of the information available from the
sample observations. In the formulation and testing of hypothesis, statistical
methods are extremely useful. Whether crop yield has increased because of the
use of new fertilizer or whether the new medicine is effective in eliminating a
particular disease or whether the new policy is effective in curbing inflation are
some examples of statements of hypothesis and these are tested by proper
statistical tools.
Scope of Statistics:
Statistics is not a mere device for collecting numerical data, but a means of
developing sound techniques for their handling, analyzing and drawing valid
inferences from them. Statistics is applied in every sphere of human activity –
social as well as physical – like Biology, Commerce, Education, Planning, Business
Management, Information Technology, etc. It is almost impossible to find a single
department of human activity where statistics is not be applied. We now discuss
briefly the applications of statistics in other disciplines.
1. Statistics and Industry
Statistics is widely used in many industries. In industries, control charts are widely
used to maintain a certain quality level. In production engineering, to find
whether the product is conforming to specifications or not, statistical tools,
namely inspection plans, control charts, etc., are of extreme importance. In
inspection plans we have to resort to some kind of sampling – a very important
aspect of Statistics.
2. Statistics and Commerce:
8
Statistics are lifeblood of successful commerce. Any businessman cannot afford to
either by under stocking or having overstock of his goods. In the beginning he
estimates the demand for his goods and then takes steps to adjust with his output
or purchases. Thus statistics is indispensable in business and commerce.
3. Statistics and Agriculture:
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) which is one of the statistical tools developed by
Professor R. A. Fisher, plays a prominent role in agriculture experiments. In tests
of significance based on small samples, it can be shown that statistics is adequate
to test the significant difference between two sample means. In analysis of
variance, we are concerned with the testing of equality of several population
means.
For an example, five fertilizers are applied to five plots each of wheat and the
yield of wheat on each of the plots are given. In such a situation, we are
interested in finding out whether the effect of these fertilizers on the yield is
significantly different or not. In other words, whether the samples are drawn from
the same normal population or not. The answer to this problem is provided by the
technique of ANOVA and it is used to test the homogeneity of several population
means.
4. Statistics and Economics:
Statistical methods are useful in measuring numerical changes in complex groups
and interpreting collective phenomenon. Nowadays the uses of statistics are
abundantly made in every economic study. Both in economic theory and practice,
statistical methods play an important role.
Alfred Marshall said, “Statistics are the straw only which I like every other
economists have to make the bricks”. It may also be noted that statistical data
9
and techniques of statistical tools are immensely useful in solving many economic
problems such as wages, prices, production, distribution of income and wealth
and so on. Statistical tools like Index numbers, time series Analysis, Estimation
theory, Testing Statistical Hypothesis are extensively used in economics.
5. Statistics and Education:
Statistics is widely used in education. Research has become a common feature in
all branches of activities. Statistics is necessary for the formulation of policies to
start new course, consideration of facilities available for new courses, etc. There
are many people engaged in research work to test the past knowledge and evolve
new knowledge. These are possible only through statistics.
6. Statistics and Planning:
Statistics is indispensable in planning. In the modern world, which can be termed
as the “world of planning”, almost all the organizations in the government are
seeking the help of planning for efficient working, for the formulation of policy
decisions and execution of the same.
In order to achieve the above goals, the statistical data relating to production,
consumption, demand, supply, prices, investments, income, expenditure, etc.,
and various advanced statistical techniques for processing, analyzing and
interpreting such complex data are of importance.
7. Statistics and Medicine:
In Medical sciences, statistical tools are widely used. In order to test the efficiency
of a new drug or medicine, t - test is used to compare the efficiency of two drugs
or two medicines. More and more applications of statistics are at present used in
clinical investigation.
8. Statistics and Modern applications:
10
Recent developments in the fields of computer technology and information
technology have enabled statistics to integrate their models and thus make
statistics a part of decision making procedures of many organizations. There are
so many software packages available for solving, design of experiments,
forecasting simulation problems, etc.
Limitations of statistics:
Statistics with all its wide application in every sphere of human activity has its
own limitations. Some of them are given below.
1. Statistics is not suitable to the study of qualitative phenomenon: Since
statistics is basically a science and deals with a set of numerical data, it is
applicable to the study of only these subjects of enquiry, which can be expressed
in terms of quantitative measurements. As a matter of fact, qualitative
phenomenon like honesty, poverty, beauty, intelligence etc., cannot be expressed
numerically and any statistical analysis cannot be directly applied on this
qualitative phenomenon. Nevertheless, statistical techniques may be applied
indirectly by first reducing the qualitative expressions to accurate quantitative
terms. For example, the intelligence of a group of students can be studied on the
basis of their marks in a particular examination.
2. Statistics does not study individuals: Statistics does not give any specific
importance to the individual items; in fact it deals with an aggregate of objects.
Individual items, when they are taken individually do not constitute any statistical
data and do not serve any purpose for any statistical enquiry.
3. Statistical laws are not exact: It is well known that mathematical and physical
sciences are exact. Statistical laws are not exact and statistical laws are only
11
approximations. Statistical conclusions are not universally true. They are true only
on an average.
4. Statistics table may be misused: Statistics must be used only by experts;
otherwise, statistical methods are the most dangerous tools on the hands of the
inexpert. The use of statistical tools by the inexperienced and untraced persons
might lead to wrong conclusions. Statistics can be easily misused by quoting
wrong figures of data.
5. Statistics is only, one of the methods of studying a problem:
Statistical method do not provide complete solution of the problems because
problems are to be studied taking the background of the countries culture,
philosophy or religion into consideration. Thus the statistical study should be
supplemented by other evidences.
12
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York, und die Dame in Schwarz, mit den Brillanten, ist die Tochter
eines Weizenexporteurs en gros und Enkelin eines Auswanderers ...
Zwischendeckpassagiers — tjawoll! Wenn die Herrschaften unter
sich bleiben wollen, dann müssen sie wirklich die rote Schnur
ziehen!“
Ungeduldig, mit brennenden, trockenen Augen und zerbissenen
Lippen stand Karla König auf. Sie war wie im Fieber. Um keinen
Preis durfte jemand aus der Gesellschaft sie noch sehen. Noch
einmal ertrug sie die spöttischen oder kalten Blicke dieser Menschen
nicht.
„Nun ... wie war’s?“
Altmann verstummte, als er ihr blasses, gleichsam zerknittertes
Gesicht erblickte. Das kostbare Kleid schleifte über den Boden, der
Umhang glitt von den wie eingeschrumpften Schultern.
„Was ist denn geschehen, Karla? ... So rede doch!“
„Blamiert habe ich mich — weiter ist nichts geschehen.“
„Du siehst, Karla, ich wollte dich selbst begleiten.“
Aber sie zuckte die Achseln:
„Ach, du ...!“
Es gab ihm einen Stich. So wenig bedeutete er ihr? So völlig
gleichmütig ging sie über ihn hinweg?
„Ja ... warum hast du dich nicht zusammengenommen?“
Seine Stimme klang härter, als er wollte.
Aber dann sah er ihren Umhang auf dem Boden liegen, die
Schleppe war am Ende eingerissen, als wäre sie beim hastigen
Aussteigen am Wagentritt hängen geblieben.
„Die guten Sachen! ... So paß doch auf! ...“
Karla warf sich in den nächsten Sessel.
„Die guten Sachen? ... Meinetwegen sollen sie in Fetzen gehn.
Es sind ja doch nur Lumpen. Jawohl! Lumpen! Ach, du glaubst
vielleicht, weil das Kleid fünfhundert Mark kostet, bin ich gut
angezogen? Gott bewahre! ... Ich hatte ja Goldschuhe an und weiße,
lange Handschuhe! Denke doch — mein Verbrechen! Ausgelacht
haben sie mich! Erst ausgestellt, wie in einem Panoptikum, und dann
ausgelacht!“
Sie schlug die Hände vors Gesicht und blieb regungslos sitzen.
Sie wartete. Jetzt mußte ihr Mann kommen, mußte den Arm um sie
legen, sie trösten und sagen, daß sie heimfahren wollten. Lange saß
sie ganz still, begriff nicht, daß es so lange währte, bis das geschah,
worauf sie wartete.
Altmanns Schritte schlugen an ihr Ohr, langsam, gewichtig. Er
räusperte sich, blieb stehen.
„Ja ... na und dann?“
„Dann? ... Dann bin ich stecken geblieben und habe getan, als ob
ich ohnmächtig wurde ... d a s w a r d a n n !“
Sie riß ihr kleines Taschentuch aus dem Ausschnitt, ballte es
zusammen und warf es zornig auf den Tisch.
„Stecken geblieben ...? Wenn ich dich begleitet hätte, wäre das
nicht geschehen, sage ich ...“
„So? Warum wäre das nicht geschehen?“
„Weil du dich nicht so verlassen gefühlt hättest, weil ...“
„So, glaubst du wirklich? ... Und ich sage dir, es wäre noch
schlimmer geworden. Sie hätten dich mit mir zusammengesperrt und
hätten über deinen Frack gelacht! Ja ... das hätten sie ... denn du
siehst wie ein Schulmeister aus, meint Russel, in deinem
Hochzeitsfrack!“
„So? Meint er das? ... Nun, da ich nicht mit war, konnte mein
Frack nicht an deinem Durchfall schuld sein.“
Karla fühlte, daß sich etwas Häßliches zwischen ihnen erhob. Ein
unsichtbares schwarzes Ungetüm, das mit Tatzen nach ihnen
schlug, sie aufeinanderhetzte. Sie brach aus, ohne Zusammenhang,
leidenschaftlich:
„Ich bleibe hier nicht — um keinen Preis bleibe ich! Geh zu
Russel ... er soll den Vertrag lösen. Es kann ihm ja auch nichts an
mir liegen ... er wird froh sein ...“
„So? ... Und die Vorschüsse ...?“
Altmann stand mit hinter dem Rücken verschränkten Armen vor
ihr. Sein Gesicht drückte leise Genugtuung und Überlegenheit aus.
„Also du willst mir nicht helfen ... willst nicht ...“
Ihre Augen sprühten, ihre Lippen bebten.
„D u hast mich nach Amerika geschleppt ... D u ! ... Ich wollte nicht
... Ich wollte bei meinem Kinde bleiben. Aber das war dir ganz egal,
was mit dem Kinde geschah! Du hattest ja deine Schwestern ...
Deine Schwestern sind dazu da, sich um das Kind zu kümmern ...
Ich muß Geld ...“
Sie brach plötzlich ab, denn Altmann hatte sich über sie gebeugt,
sehr bleich im Gesicht, und hatte mit heftigem Druck ihre Hand
ergriffen.
„Sprich nur zu Ende ... bitte ... lege dir keinen Zwang auf. Wer da
alles aus dir herausredet, das weiß ich nicht. Aber zu so etwas
kommt es wohl, wenn der Mann seine Frau über sich
hinauswachsen läßt. Das heißt — du bist noch nicht
hinausgewachsen ... lange nicht. Denn das ‚viele Geld‘, das du
verdienst — ist weniger wert als meine kleinen Gagen in den letzten
Jahren. Von denen sparte ich mir noch etwas — ja, das tat ich —
sonst hätte ich dich ja gar nicht heiraten können. Was besitzen wir,
seitdem du verdienst? — — Schulden. So ist es. Glaubst du, Russel
läßt dich gehen, solange du ihm noch einen Dollar abzusingen hast?
Eher läßt er dich zehnmal durchfallen, als daß er dich gehen läßt!
Ein Durchfall ist unter Umständen auch eine Sensation, wenn man
ihn geschickt ausnutzt. Denn was du in der Kehle hast, weiß er so
gut wie ich! Aber du bist unbeherrscht — und darauf rechnet er. Ich
bin ihm unbequem, und er möchte mich los sein! Darum sucht er
mich klein zu machen in deinen Augen! Tu ihm nur den Gefallen und
falle ihm drauf rein — bitte. Mir brauchst du ein einziges Wort
zusagen — mit dem nächsten Schiff bin ich wieder in Europa. Dann
balge du dich mit ihm herum! Versuche es, von ihm loszukommen.
Er wird dich schon zu halten verstehn. Ich weiß jetzt Bescheid über
ihn! Du bist nicht die einzige. Wenn du nicht den Stoff in dir hast,
eine allererste zu werden, wertvoll genug bist du, daß er dich bis
aufs Letzte auspumpt! Geh morgen zu ihm hin und verlange
dreitausend Dollar Vorschuß. Er wird sie dir geben. Auch
fünftausend. Je mehr, desto besser! Desto sicherer bist du ihm. Oder
willst du durchbrennen — willst du steckbrieflich verfolgt werden? ...
Mein liebes Kind ... zieh dir einen Leinwandrock an, braune Stiefel
und grüne Handschuhe — und diese selbe Gesellschaft, die dich
heute ausgelacht hat, brüllt dir zu — wenn du einen Namen hast!
Den Namen aber geben dir nicht deine Kleider, sondern den gibt dir
deine Selbständigkeit Russel gegenüber. Zeige ihm, daß du ihn nicht
brauchst, dann wird er Angst haben, dich zu verlieren. So. Und nun
wirtschafte weiter nach eigenem Ermessen. Meine Sachen sind
rasch gepackt ...“
„Ernst!“
Sie hielt ihn am Arm zurück. Sie küßte den alten graukarierten
Stoff, sie streichelte ihm das Gesicht mit ihrer tränenfeuchten Hand.
Sie murmelte:
„Nicht böse sein ... ich bin so dumm ... so schrecklich nervös bin
ich ... Pass’ auf, wenn ich ruhiger werde ... es ist wahr, du mußt
immer mit mir gehen ... immer ... dann kann ich dir gleich alles sagen
... Du bist immer so gut zu mir gewesen ... Du wirst mir raten ...
Gewiß wäre das heute nicht passiert, wenn du dagewesen wärst ...
gewiß nicht ... Und nie nehme ich mehr einen Vorschuß ... nie! ...
Überhaupt will ich das Geld gar nicht mehr sehn ... Du gibst mir ein
Taschengeld wie früher ... ich brauche ja nichts ... nicht wahr? Ein
paar Handschuhe vielleicht ... Schleier trage ich ja nicht ... und mal
was Süßes ... oder eine Kleinigkeit für Schmerzchen ... so wonnige
Babysachen haben sie hier ...“
Altmann drückte ihren hübschen, dunklen Kopf an sich. Wie ein
ungebärdiges Kind war sie. Wild und zügellos, und im
Handumdrehen wieder gut und lenksam. Er wollte ja auch wirklich
nur ihr Bestes — in ihrem gemeinsamen Interesse! Sie dachte an ein
Röckchen für das Kind, er dachte an des Kindes Zukunft.
Es war zwei Uhr nachts, als Karla wie gerädert ihr Bett aufsuchte.
Ihr Mann hatte ihr versprochen, über den gestrigen Abend mit
Russel zu sprechen.
„Lieber, guter Ernst“, flüsterte sie und schlief, seine Hand gegen
die Brust gedrückt, ein — sorglos wie ein Kind, dem man seine Unart
verziehen hat.
* *
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