ISE 3414 Topic #2: Events & Multiplication Rule

Chapter 1: Introduction to Probability Theory Well get started with some basic definitions. Experiment: Process that generates a set of outcomes. Outcomes are uncertain until the experiment is complete. The number of outcomes could be finite, countably infinite, or uncountably infinite. Examples: Toss a single die:

Lifetime of a TV: If measured in whole days:

If measured to infinite decimal precision:

Sample Space (S): Set of all possible outcomes from an experiment. Examples: Toss a single die: Lifetime of a TV (measured in whole days):

Lifetime of a TV (measured in decimal days):

Multiplication Rule: To find the total number of outcomes for a series of experiments, multiply the number of outcomes for each individual experiment. Examples: Toss a pair of dice:

Flip three coins:

Event: Subset of a sample space (group of possible outcomes). Set Notation Null Set Impossible Event is denoted by . Examples: Toss a pair of dice: A = Event that the sum of the two dice equals 20 Flip three coins: B = Event that four tails appear A union B A or B is denoted by .

S A

A intersect B A and B is denoted by

or simply as

(in Ross textbook).

S A

Complement of A all the elements of S that are not in A is denoted by

(or .)

S A

Mutually Exclusive Events: If A and B are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) events, it means that no outcome can be in both A and B. This is denoted by .

S A

Practice Exercises 1. Sally has just bought 4 shirts, 3 pants, 3 sweaters, and 5 pairs of shoes. Assuming that they all go together, Sally would like to make as many outfits as possible. (Each outfit consists of one shirt, one pair of pants, one sweater, and one pair of shoes.) How many outfits can she make?

2. How many 3-digit odd numbers can be made from the digits 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 if each digit can only be used once?

3. Consider a coin that is tossed three times. The sample space containing all of the possible outcomes is shown below. Circle and label the elements in the events listed below. HHH THT HTT HHT TTH TTT HTH THH

A 2 or more heads appear = B an odd number of tails appears = C 2 heads and 2 tails appear = D an odd number of heads appears = Ac fewer than 2 heads appear =

AB 2 or more heads AND an odd number of tails appear =

AD 2 or more heads AND an odd number of heads appear =

BD an odd number of heads AND an odd number of tails appear =

A B 2 or more heads OR an odd number of tails appear =

4. Suppose that the possible outcomes of an experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Let X denote the outcome of the experiment. Simplify the notation for each of the following events. a. { } { } { } { } { }

b. {

c. {

d. {

e. {