Ekonometri-2 5

INTERPRETIMI I EKUACIONIT TE REGRESIONIT
120
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Diagrami tregon raportin ndermjet pages per ore pune ne vitin 2002 dhe viteve te shkollimit,
e definuar si klasa me e larte e kryer, ne nje moster prej 540 respondenteve.
1
120
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Klasa me e larte e kryer d.m.th. shkolla fillore dhe e mesme. Klasa 13, 14, dhe 15 d.m.th. nje,
dy dhe tre vite te fakultetit.
2
120
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Klasa 16 kur perfundohet fakulteti (kater-vjecar) dhe klasat 16+ jane grada per shkollim
pasuniversitar.
3
. reg EARNINGS S
Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 540

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 538) = 112.15
Model | 19321.5589 1 19321.5589 Prob > F = 0.0000
Residual | 92688.6722 538 172.283777 R-squared = 0.1725
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.1710
Total | 112010.231 539 207.811189 Root MSE = 13.126
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EARNINGS | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
S | 2.455321 .2318512 10.59 0.000 1.999876 2.910765
_cons | -13.93347 3.219851 -4.33 0.000 -20.25849 -7.608444
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outputi nga regresioni i pages ne vitet e shkollimit, duke perdorur programin Stata.
4
. reg EARNINGS S

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 538) = 112.15
Model | 19321.5589 1 19321.5589 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.1710
Total | 112010.231 539 207.811189 Root MSE = 13.126
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
S | 2.455321 .2318512 10.59 0.000 1.999876 2.910765
_cons | -13.93347 3.219851 -4.33 0.000 -20.25849 -7.608444
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fillimisht do te koncentrohemi vetem ne parametrat. Variablat e regresionit jane listuar ne

kolonen e pare dhe kolona e dyte jep vleresimin e koeficienteve te variablave.
5
. reg EARNINGS S

-------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 538) = 112.15
Model | 19321.5589 1 19321.5589 Prob > F = 0.0000
-------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.1710
Total | 112010.231 539 207.811189 Root MSE = 13.126
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
S | 2.455321 .2318512 10.59 0.000 1.999876 2.910765
_cons | -13.93347 3.219851 -4.33 0.000 -20.25849 -7.608444
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ne kete shembull eshte vetem nje variabel, S, dhe koeficienti i tije eshte 2.46. _cons, ne
Stata, i referohet konstantes. Vlera e konstatntes (origjines) eshte -13.93.
6
120
^
EARNINGS 13.93 2.46 S
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Diagrami skater dhe vija e regresionit.
7
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Cfare kuptimi kane koeficientet?
8
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Per tiu pergjigjur kesaje pyetje duhet referuar njesive me te cilat maten variablat.
9
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
S matet me vite (apo vite shkolle te perfunduara), EARNINGS eshte paga per ore pune.
Prandaj koeficienti slope d.m.th qe paga per ore pune rritet per $2.46 per cdo vit shkollimi
me teper.
10
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Interpretimi gjeometrik.
11
21
19
$15.53
Hourly earnings ($)
17
15
$13.07 $2.46
13
One year
11
7
10.8 11 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12 12.2
Years of schooling
Vija e regresionit tregon qe me perfundimin e shkolles se mesme, klasa 12, ne vend te

klases se 11, do te rriste pagen per $2.46, prej $13.07 ne $15.53, si tendence gjenerale.
12
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Duhet pyetur vehten a eshte kjo nje shifer e arsyeshme. Nese jo, kjo mund te jete shenje qe
modeli i juaj nuk eshte i specifikuar mire.
13
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Per nivele te uleta te shkollimit kjo mund te jete e arsyeshme. Por per nivele te larta te
shkollimit duket te jete nenvleresim.
14
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Interpretimi i kostantes? (mundohuni te pergjigjeni ne kete pyetje)
15
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Konstanta interpretohet/tregon qe individi pa shkollim do te duhej te paguante punedhensin

$13.93 per nje ore pune per tu lejuar te punoje!
16
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Kjo nuk ka kuptim (ka perjashtime per ata qe mesojne zanat). Sidoqofte, interpretimi i pages
negative eshte i paqendrueshem.
17
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Per ta thjeshtesuar: limito interpretimin ne nje pjese te te dhenave.
18
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Shpesh konstanta nuk ka interpretim ekonomik.
19
120
^
100
Hourly earnings ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-20
Years of schooling
Nje tjeter mundesi eshte qe relacioni i vertete eshte jolinear dhe ne po e perafrojme me nje
regresion linear. Ne nje nga ligjeratat do te zgjerojme tekniken e regresionit per modele
jolineare.
20

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INTERPRETIMI I EKUACIONIT TE REGRESIONIT

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 540

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 540

Fillimisht do te koncentrohemi vetem ne parametrat. Variablat e regresionit jane listuar ne

Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 540

Diagrami skater dhe vija e regresionit.

Cfare kuptimi kane koeficientet?

Vija e regresionit tregon qe me perfundimin e shkolles se mesme, klasa 12, ne vend te

Interpretimi i kostantes? (mundohuni te pergjigjeni ne kete pyetje)

Konstanta interpretohet/tregon qe individi pa shkollim do te duhej te paguante punedhensin

Per ta thjeshtesuar: limito interpretimin ne nje pjese te te dhenave.

Shpesh konstanta nuk ka interpretim ekonomik.

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