Generation Adequacy Planning

LOLE/LOLP Study Seminar

by

Gene Preston
g.preston@ieee.org

December 6, 2002
Seminar Purpose
Show the methodology for calculating the
reliability indices using graphics and examples
Define terms used in reliability studies such as
LOLE, LOLP, EUE, FOR, PFOR, pdf, etc.
Provide information to stakeholders concerning
input data and interpretation of study results
for single area and multi-area studies
Generation Adequacy Study Objectives

Ensure installed generation reserve is sufficient

Test the sensitivity of study parameters
 pdf = probabilistic density function
of a typical generator

f(x) ~ Pmax time at each MW level

f(x)

total area = 1

0 x - megawatts (MW) Pmax

forced out of service

See notes for each slide for more information.
Cumulative distribution function of the pdf

random variables
f(x) F(x)

.5

1- area = value x
expected value or mean value
F(x) = 1 - Pr[generation MW x]
= Pr[generation MW > x]
Combination of two generator pdfs using
convolution

Representation of pdfs with discrete states

x1 gen 1 Pr x2 gen 2 Pr
.125 .25 .125 .1653
.375 .25 .375 .2123
.625 .25 .625 .2725
.875 .25 .875 .3499
Take all combinations of Prs and MWs

X Pr
0.25 0.0413250
0.50 0.0944000
0.75 0.1625250
1.00 0.2500000
1.25 0.2086750
1.50 0.1556000
1.75 0.0874750
Representation of pdfs with discrete states
(one generator with states: 0, Derated, Pmax)
.8

f(x)
.1 PFOR
.1 FOR

0 x - MW Derated Pmax
Generator failure as an exponential function of time

probability of failure =

t=0 1/
mean time to failure

probability of failure = 1 exp(t)

 Steady state FOR (forced outage rate)
derived from and

up Pr[unit is up] = P1

down Pr[unit is down] = P0 P0 = P1

and P0 + P1 = 1
= failure rate
gives P0 = / ( + )
= repair rate
also FOR = P0 = Pr[down]
FOR = per unit down time
Markov representation of a 3-state generator
P1
Pmax
MW 2 1+2 2 1 P1 0
2 2 2+3 3 P2 0
P2
1 Pder 1 1 1 P3 1
1 MW

3
3 PFOR = per unit derated time
(partial forced outage rate)
0 MW P3 FOR = per unit down time
Use of the Markov process to represent three
two-state generators

U U U

9 1 4 1 2.33 1

D D D

unit 1 unit 2 unit 3

FOR=.1 FOR=.2 FOR=.3
10 MW 15 MW 20 MW
Markov representation of three generators
P1
2.33 UUU 9
4
1 1 1

P2 P3 P5
UUD 2.33
UDU 2.33
DUU
4 9 9 4
1 1 1 1
P4 P6 1 P7
UDD DUD DDU
9 4 2.33
1
1 P8 1
DDD
 Markov representation of three generators

3 -2.3 -4 0 -9 0 0 0 P1 0
-1 4.3 0 -4 0 -9 0 0 P2 0
-1 0 6 -2.3 0 0 -9 0 P3 0
0 -1 -1 7.3 0 0 0 -9 P4 0
-1 0 0 0 11 -2.3 -4 0 P5 0
0 -1 0 0 -1 12.3 0 -4 P6 0
0 0 -1 0 -1 0 14 -2.3 P7 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 P8 1
Markov representation of three generators

P1 .504 45 MW
P2 .216 25 MW
P3 .126 30 MW
P4 .054 10 MW
P5 .056 35 MW
P6 .024 15 MW
P7 .014 20 MW
P8 .006 0 MW
 Use of a binary tree for the three generators to
perform the convolution process
Individual States Cumulative
Gen 1 Gen 2 Gen 3 MW Pr MW Pr Pr
20 .7 -- 45 .504 45 .504 .504
15 .8 0 .3 -- 25 .216 35 .056 .560
10 .9 0 .2 20 .7 -- 30 .126 30 .126 .686
0 .3 -- 10 .054 sort 25 .216 .902
20 .7 -- 35 .056 20 .014 .916
0 .1 15 .8 0 .3 -- 15 .024 15 .024 .940
0 .2 20 .7 -- 20 .014 10 .054 .994
0 .3 -- 0 .006 0 .006 1.000
 Graph of the 3 generator cumulative distribution
for the probability that generation MW is > x)
.994
1.0 .940
.916 .902
.9
load not served
.8
.686
.7
.6 .560
Pr .504
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
.000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Unsuitability of the binary tree and Markov
methods for large systems

A system with 400 two-state

generators has a total of:

400 120

2 10 states (combinations)

This is greater than the number

of atoms in the universe (~1080)!
 The same cumulative distribution can be
created one generator at a time. The function is
updated as each generator is added.
.994
1.0 .940
.916 .902
.9
load not served
.8
.686
.7
.6 .560
Pr .504
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
.000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Starting with a blank distribution

1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6 load not served
Pr
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Cumulative distribution for generator 1
generator 1 = {10 MW, FOR=.1}

1.0 .900
.9
.8
.7
.6 load not served
Pr
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1 .000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Adding generator 2 scales and shifts the initial
distribution for Pr=.8 (up) and Pr=.2 (down)
generator 2 = {15 MW, FOR=.2}
1.0
.9 1.00 x .8 =.80
.8 .900 x .8 =.72
.7
.6
Pr
.5
.4
.3
.900 x .2 =.18
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Summing the two curves gives the combined
generators 1 and 2 cumulative distribution
.80+.18=.98
1.0
.9 .80
.8 .72
.7
.6 load not served
Pr
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1 .000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
Adding generator 3 scales and shifts the distribution
for Pr=.7 (up) and Pr=.3 (down)
generator 3 = {20 MW, FOR=.3}
1.0
.9
.8 1.00x.7=.700 .98x.7=.686
.7 .80x.7=.56
.6 .72x.7=.504
Pr
.5
.4
.98x.3=.294 .80x.3=.24
.3 .72x.3=.216
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Summing the two curves gives the combined
generators 1, 2, and 3 cumulative distribution
(same curve as the one using a binary tree)
.294+.700=.994
1.0
.9
load not served
.8
.686
.7
.6 .560
Pr .504
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
.000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Binary tree graph of the 3 generator cumulative
distribution for the probability that generation is
available at x MW
.994
1.0 .940
.916 .902
.9
load not served
.8
.686
.7
.6 .560
Pr .504
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
.000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Cumulative distribution Pr[generation is up]
represented in discrete 1 MW steps

1.0
.9
load not served
.8
.7
.6
Pr
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Flip the function over and backwards and the distribution
represents Pr[generation out of svc]
This is the COPT or Capacity Outage Probability Table

1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
Pr .496
.5 .440
.4 .314
.3
.2 load not served .098
.084 .060
.1 .006 .000
0
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
x (MW)
 Representation of Pr[gen out of service] as
piecewise linear increments

1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
Pr
.5
.4
.3
.2 load not served
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
 Representation of Pr[gen out of service] as
piecewise quadratic increments

1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
Pr
.5
for any 3 points,
.4 interpolate between
.3 the left two points
.2 load not served
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
x (MW)
Relative per unit error introduced by numerous
interpolations of piecewise linear (PL) and
piecewise quadratic (PQ) distributions
0.06

0.05

0.04
PL
per unit error

0.03
x=30%
PQ
x=30%
0.02

PQ
0.01
x=20%
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
h grid spacing in MW for the ERCOT 286 generator p roblem
 LOLE loss of load expectation
EUE expected unserved energy
EUE = MWH not served (for each hour in the study)
LOLE for one day
1.0 .994
= 1 - Pr[gen up]
.9 .940 .916 .902
= Pr[load loss]
.8 = 1-.56 = .44 d/y
.7
.686
.6
Pr .560
.5 .504
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 MW
x MW (daily or hourly)
 LOLP loss of load probability

LOLP (for a week)

1.0 .994
= 1 - Pr[gen up]
.9 .940 .916 .902
= Pr[load loss]
.8 = 1-.56 = .44
.7
.686
.6
Pr .560
.5 .504
.4 generation
.3
.2 annual LOLP = 1-i(Pr[gen up]i) for all i weeks
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 MW
x MW weekly peak demand
 Representing load uncertainty
(each hour is a Normal distribution of MW values)

.994
1.0 .940
.916 .902
.9
.8
.686
.7
.6 .560
.504
Pr
.5
.4 generation
.3
.2
.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 MW
x MW (daily or hourly)
 Generation scheduled maintenance

generator # insufficient reserve?

1 xxx
2 xxx
3
4 xxxxx
5
6 xxx summer
7
8 xxxx
9 xxx
10 xxxx
11
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 52
week # during the year
 Generation scheduled maintenance
reduces available generation increases LOLE
generator installed MW before maintenance

with
maint
planning
MW reserve
demand
insufficient reserve

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 52

week # during the year

 Generation scheduled maintenance
to minimize overall LOLE
generator installed MW before maintenance

with maint

planning
MW reserve
demand

1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 52

week # during the year

 Automatic scheduled maintenance
methodology to minimize LOLE

1. Sort the MW unit sizes from largest to

smallest.
2. Place the largest MW generator in a time slot
with the greatest unused reserve margin.
3. Place the next largest generator in a time slot
with the greatest unused reserve margin.
4. Repeat step 3 until all units are scheduled.
 ERCOT Automatic Maintenance

90000
total generation
80000

70000 automatic maintenance

60000
Megawatts

weekly peak demand

50000 1999 load shape
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
Week
 ERCOT Automatic Maintenance with 1 wk delay in pk demands

90000
total generation
80000

70000 automatic maintenance

60000
Megawatts

weekly peak demand

50000
1999 load shape
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
Week
 Effect of 1 week delay in sched. maint. on LOLE

1.00E+00

1.00E-01

1.00E-02
delay in deferring maintenance
1.00E-03
LOLE - days/year

1.00E-04

1.00E-05

1.00E-06

1.00E-07

1.00E-08

1.00E-09

1.00E-10
1

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52
Week
 ERCOT generation (MW)
forced out of service and derated
1.00E+00

9.00E-01
actual more generators

Pr[gen out of svc > x]

8.00E-01

7.00E-01

6.00E-01

5.00E-01
~5000 MW ~9000 MW
4.00E-01
~6% ~11%
3.00E-01
12.5%
2.00E-01

1.00E-01

0.00E+00
84316 82316 80316 78316 76316 74316 72316 70316
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
x MW out of service with 84316 MW installed
 DC tie considerations
probability of a DC tie failure is nearly 0
probability of generation supply being available
in the other region is expected to be nearly 1
transmission constraints in the other region
may reduce the probability of DC tie capability
to less than 1
DC tie capacity can be included or excluded
from the LOLP calculations (affects the LOLE)
DC tie capacity may or may not be used to
serve firm load in ERCOT (affects the reserve)
 DC tie considerations
DC tie in LOLP calculations
Yes No

LOLP:100% DC MW LOLP: X MW DC

DC tie with X MW CDR : X MW gen CDR : X MW gen

firm generation
11% x=0 to 12.5% 12.5% reserve
for x=all firm

LOLP:100% DC MW LOLP: 0 MW DC

DC tie with 0 MW CDR : 0 MW gen CDR : 0 MW gen

firm generation
11% reserve 12.5% reserve
 Switchable generation considerations

Switchable generation capability must be

available to ERCOT when called upon.
The same switchable MWs must be used in
both the reserve calculation and the LOLP
calculation.
 Self-serve generation considerations
Currently, both the self serve generation and
self serve load (840 MW in the previous study)
are omitted from the CDR and the LOLP
calculations.
Alternately, the self serve generation and load
could be included with the CDR and LOLP
calculations with a negligible effect on LOLE.
Currently, self serve generation and load are
included in the transmission load flow analysis
as fixed MW values with 100% availability.
 Interruptible load considerations
The load can be modeled as two components,
firm plus interruptible (i.e. two forecasts)
The LOLE for serving firm load can be
calculated by using only the forecast for firm
load in the computer simulation.
The LOLE for interruptible load can be
calculated by using a forecast of firm load plus
interruptible load in the computer simulation
and then subtracting the LOLE results obtained
for the firm load forecast.
Data needed to perform single-area LOLP studies
hourly ERCOT loads for the (annual) study
period (historical year hourly loads are scaled)
the annual peak demand forecast and the
percentage of interruptible load
percentage of load forecast uncertainty
each generators seasonal MW (Pmax)
capability, fuel type, type of unit, and
maintenance periods (by beginning and ending
week numbers or by total weeks needed)
FOR and DFOR of generator types such as
gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, etc.
identification of self-serve MW by generator
Single Area Output Reports Input Data
SINGLE AREA GENERATOR DATA:
SEASONAL CAPACITIES CDR FORCED PARTIAL-OUTAG SCHEDULED
UNIT AREA WINT SPNG SUMM FALL CAP OUTAGE RATE DERATNG UNAVAILABLE
NAME NAME MW MW MW MW % RATE % % % B1 D1 B2 D2
-------- -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- ------ ------ ------ -- -- -- --
STP1 ERCOT 1311 1311 1311 1311 100 6.90 2.30 5.50 5 4 0 0
STP2 ERCOT 1311 1311 1311 1311 100 6.90 2.30 5.50 4 4 0 0
CMPK 1 G ERCOT 1161 1161 1161 1161 100 6.90 2.30 5.50 11 4 0 0
CMPK 2 G ERCOT 1161 1161 1161 1161 100 6.90 2.30 5.50 3 12 0 0
DOW1 ERCOT 986 986 986 986 100 10.00 0.00 0.00 7 4 0 0
DOW2 ERCOT 917 917 917 917 100 10.00 0.00 0.00 3 12 0 0
DEC 1 G ERCOT 818 818 818 818 100 6.70 0.00 0.00 4 12 0 0
THSE 2 G ERCOT 818 818 818 818 100 6.70 0.00 0.00 48 4 0 0
LIM1 ERCOT 744 744 744 744 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 13 4 0 0
LIM2 ERCOT 744 744 744 744 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 3 12 0 0
MTNLK 1G ERCOT 727 727 727 727 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 43 4 0 0
MTNLK 2G ERCOT 727 727 727 727 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 48 4 0 0
MTNLK 3G ERCOT 727 727 727 727 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 49 4 1 8
MOSES3 G ERCOT 726 726 726 726 100 4.22 2.90 19.00 43 4 0 0
CB 3 ERCOT 703 703 703 703 100 6.70 0.00 0.00 13 4 0 0
DC-EAST ERCOT 700 700 700 700 0 0.01 0.00 0.00 3 12 0 0

Weeks Weeks Weeks Weeks

1-9 10-21 22-37 38-48
49-52
Single Area Output Reports Maintenance

AUTOMATIC MAINTENANCE OF 12 LONG & 4 SHORT WEEKS

SCHEDULED UNAVAILABLE:
-WINTER- ---SPRING--- ----SUMMER---- ----FALL--- WIN
UNIT AREA JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NAME NAME week: 1111111111222222222233333333334444444444555
-------- -------- 1234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012
PB 5 G ERCOT ooooooo . . . . . . . . ooooo
PB 6 G ERCOT . . . . . . . . oooo .
MRGN 6 G ERCOT . . . . . . . . oooo .
MRGN 2 G ERCOT oo . . . . . . . . oooooooooo
MRGN 4 G ERCOT . . . . . . . oooo . .
MRGN 5 G ERCOT . . . . . . . . oooo .
MRGN 3 G ERCOT oo . . . . . . . . oooooooooo
 Single Area Output Reports CDR
WEEK CAPACITY OUT-OF-SVC AVAILABLE PEAK LOAD RESERVE RESERVE WEEK
MW MW MW MW MW % BEGINS
---- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- ------- ------
16 80223. 0. 80223. 0. 80223. 0.0 APR 18
17 80223. 0. 80223. 35344. 44879. 127.0 APR 25
18 80223. 0. 80223. 49251. 30972. 62.9 MAY 2
19 80223. 0. 80223. 52755. 27468. 52.1 MAY 9
20 80223. 0. 80223. 53323. 26900. 50.4 MAY 16
21 80223. 0. 80223. 54975. 25248. 45.9 MAY 23
22 80223. 0. 80223. 60222. 20001. 33.2 MAY 30
23 80223. 0. 80223. 57907. 22316. 38.5 JUN 6
24 80223. 0. 80223. 55546. 24676. 44.4 JUN 13
25 80223. 0. 80223. 57007. 23216. 40.7 JUN 20
26 80223. 0. 80223. 63446. 16777. 26.4 JUN 27
27 80223. 0. 80223. 62549. 17673. 28.3 JUL 4
28 80223. 0. 80223. 62641. 17582. 28.1 JUL 11
29 80223. 0. 80223. 64447. 15776. 24.5 JUL 18
30 80223. 0. 80223. 67662. 12561. 18.6 JUL 25
31 80223. 0. 80223. 67691. 12532. 18.5 AUG 1
32 80223. 0. 80223. 70378. 9845. 14.0 AUG 8
33 80223. 0. 80223. 69615. 10607. 15.2 AUG 15
34 80223. 0. 80223. 70535. 9688. 13.7 AUG 22
35 80223. 0. 80223. 67195. 13027. 19.4 AUG 29
36 80223. 0. 80223. 63388. 16835. 26.6 SEP 5
37 80223. 0. 80223. 58919. 21303. 36.2 SEP 12
38 80223. 0. 80223. 61987. 18236. 29.4 SEP 19
39 80223. 0. 80223. 59018. 21205. 35.9 SEP 26
40 80223. 0. 80223. 0. 80223. 0.0 OCT 3
Single Area Output Reports LOLE Results
WEEK PEAK LOAD RESERVE WEEKLY PROBABILITY HOURLY UNSERVED WEEK
MW % LOAD>GENR MWH BEGINS
---- -------- ------- -.--3--6--9-12-15- ----.--3--6--9- ------
16 0. 0.0 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 APR 18
17 35344. 127.0 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 APR 25
18 49251. 62.9 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 MAY 2
19 52755. 52.1 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 MAY 9
20 53323. 50.4 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 MAY 16
21 54975. 45.9 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 MAY 23
22 60222. 33.2 0.0000000000000692 0.0000000000 MAY 30
23 57907. 38.5 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 JUN 6
24 55546. 44.4 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 JUN 13
25 57007. 40.7 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 JUN 20
26 63446. 26.4 0.0000000013815166 0.0000009830 JUN 27
27 62549. 28.3 0.0000000001051571 0.0000000560 JUL 4
28 62641. 28.1 0.0000000001375059 0.0000000719 JUL 11
29 64447. 24.5 0.0000000208146472 0.0000123400 JUL 18
30 67662. 18.6 0.0000393594360814 0.0782425020 JUL 25
31 67691. 18.5 0.0000418127666276 0.0886081361 AUG 1
32 70378. 14.0 0.0053711529435669 11.2483312958 AUG 8
33 69615. 15.2 0.0015578843676685 2.7090544949 AUG 15
34 70535. 13.7 0.0068264952639734 7.4071353617 AUG 22
35 67195. 19.4 0.0000147424748045 0.0100945754 AUG 29
36 63388. 26.6 0.0000000011738335 0.0000010857 SEP 5
37 58919. 36.2 0.0000000000000008 0.0000000000 SEP 12
38 61987. 29.4 0.0000000000194574 0.0000000072 SEP 19
39 59018. 35.9 0.0000000000000011 0.0000000000 SEP 26
40 0. 0.0 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000 OCT 3
ANNUAL 70535. 13.7* 0.0137945421779943 21.5414809098 (* INSTALLED)

LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION = 0.019290 DAYS/YR USING DAILY PEAK LOADS AND NO LOAD UNCERTAINTY
LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION = 0.001565 DAYS/YR USING HOURLY LOADS AND NO LOAD UNCERTAINTY
 Transmission model considerations
Simplified transmission network (NARP)
requires the development of an equivalent
computationally fast
questionable circuit flow results
Full transmission network (PLF)
eliminates the need to develop an equivalent
computationally fast if PDFs are used
results are in agreement with AC load flow
Transmission PDFs from AC load flows
PDF = power distribution factor
= MW ckt flow / MW power transfer
difference in two shift factors

flow

load buses
gen
Harmful Generators for Austrop-Sandow Ckts
PDFs for ckt: 3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1
221 LOSTPN 2 -0.1734601 load flow bus 7008
222 LOSTPN 3 -0.1734599 load flow bus 7009
220 LOSTPN 1 -0.1734593 load flow bus 7007
257 BEP GT2 -0.1689710 load flow bus 7808
256 BEP GT1 -0.1689707 load flow bus 7807
258 BEP ST1 -0.1689678 load flow bus 7809
223 FPP G1 -0.1501281 load flow bus 7010
224 FPP G2 -0.1501194 load flow bus 7011
225 FPP G3 -0.1498940 load flow bus 7012
229 HAYSN 4 -0.1423499 load flow bus 7017
228 HAYSN 3 -0.1423486 load flow bus 7016
226 HAYSN 1 -0.1423371 load flow bus 7014
227 HAYSN 2 -0.1423371 load flow bus 7015
247 MCQUEE06 -0.1342581 load flow bus 7605
322 SANDH G1 -0.1341542 load flow bus 9016
323 SANDH G2 -0.1341542 load flow bus 9017
325 SANDH G4 -0.1341535 load flow bus 9019
324 SANDH G3 -0.1341533 load flow bus 9018
246 CANYHY06 -0.1338861 load flow bus 7487
313 DECKR G2 -0.1316094 load flow bus 9001
312 DECKR G1 -0.1315037 load flow bus 9000
More Generator PDFs for Austrop-Sandow
252 GUALUP 3 -0.1303046 load flow bus 7802
250 GUALUP 1 -0.1303038 load flow bus 7800
251 GUALUP 2 -0.1303038 load flow bus 7801
248 SCHUMA13 -0.1302463 load flow bus 7609
253 GUALUP 4 -0.1302456 load flow bus 7805
254 GUALUP 5 -0.1302456 load flow bus 7805
255 GUALUP 6 -0.1302456 load flow bus 7805
261 RIONO G3 -0.1293995 load flow bus 7812
259 RIONO G1 -0.1293991 load flow bus 7810
260 RIONO G2 -0.1293990 load flow bus 7811
315 DECKR G4 -0.1291926 load flow bus 9003
316 DECKR G5 -0.1291926 load flow bus 9004
317 DECKR G6 -0.1291926 load flow bus 9005
314 DECKR G3 -0.1291925 load flow bus 9002
263 RIONO G5 -0.1291662 load flow bus 7814
262 RIONO G4 -0.1291648 load flow bus 7813
264 RIONO G6 -0.1291633 load flow bus 7815
249 LAKEWD06 -0.1285502 load flow bus 7624
276 LAR #3 -0.1281178 load flow bus 8288
153 SAND 4 G 0.1279722 load flow bus 3432
SOUTH -0.1045032 load flow area 4
NORTH 0.0786292 load flow area 2
WEST 0.0504448 load flow area 1
HOUSTON -0.0243481 load flow area 3
 Maximum Flows for Austrop-Sandow Ckts

MAXIMUM +/- LINE FLOWS FROM SUMS OF INCREMENTAL GENERATOR FLOWS

-------FROM------ -------TO-------- RATG BASE +MW -MW %ADJ

3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 716 -356.0 2840.0 -3269.3 -2.2
3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 789 -356.0 2840.0 -3269.3 -2.2

average weighted scale factor = 2.24 %

sum of flows from helpers

sum of flows from harmers

Maximum Flow Sources for Austrop-Sandow

MAXIMUM CIRCUIT FLOWS WITH ALL CIRCUITS IN SERVICE

-------FROM------ -------TO-------- ID RATG PCT -GENERATION-to-LOAD- DIST

3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 716 -446 LOSTPN 2 18->NORTH .252
3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 789 -405 LOSTPN 2 18->NORTH .252
3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 716 397 SAND 4 G 22->SOUTH .232
3429 SANDOW 345 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 789 360 SAND 4 G 22->SOUTH .232
 Probabilistic flows on a circuit
(in preparation to remove the overloaded portion)

static base case flow

1
ckt rating ckt rating

Pr [ flow>x ]

overload

0
0 MW
 Removing a transmission overload
Pr Pr
circuit
rating
p

MW shift ckt overload states

p

a binary tree of MW shift

generation states Pr[loss of gen>x] Pr[ckt MW>x]
p generation states one circuits flows

p = Pr[of an individual generation state]

Correlating the removal of a transmission
overload with the generation distribution
line overload states

F(x,y) surface as a set of discrete points

Pr
0

F(x)
 Load shedding to remove Austrop-
Sandow circuit overloads
LINE-GENERATOR-AREA LOAD SHEDDING REPORT:

BUS# BUS NAME BUS# BUS NAME ID MW MWH GENERATOR > LOAD AREA PDF

3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 167. 0.114381 LOSTPN 2 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 167. 0.043348 LOSTPN 3 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 167. 0.016571 LOSTPN 1 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 167. 0.006372 BEP GT2 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 167. 0.002422 BEP GT1 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 166. 0.000880 BEP ST1 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 584. 0.000473 FPP G1 NORTH 0.22876
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 1 584. 0.000009 FPP G2 NORTH 0.22875

3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 167. 0.022171 LOSTPN 2 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 167. 0.010692 LOSTPN 3 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 167. 0.004809 LOSTPN 1 NORTH 0.25209
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 167. 0.002008 BEP GT2 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 167. 0.000778 BEP GT1 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 166. 0.000277 BEP ST1 NORTH 0.24760
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 584. 0.000138 FPP G1 NORTH 0.22876
3429 SANDOW 345 - 7040 AUSTRO34 345 2 584. 0.000002 FPP G2 NORTH 0.22875

0.225331 MWH for one hour

(with all gens at Pmax)
Load shedding to remove Austrop-Sandow circuit overloads
generation Pr [out of svc]
AREA 2 NORTH transmission constraints note the
AREA 2 TOTAL SYS differences
RESV% LOAD-MW LOLP TLOP EUE-MWh TEUE-MWh TEUE-MWh
26.8 24556.70 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.000000 0.000001 0.000000 in TEUE
25.8 24747.19 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.000000 0.000002 0.000000 area and
24.9 24937.68 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.000001 0.000003 0.000000 system
23.9 25128.17 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.000005 0.000006 0.000000
23.0 25318.67 0.0000001 0.0000001 0.000017 0.000011 0.000000 load levels
22.1 25509.16 0.0000004 0.0000001 0.000060 0.000019 0.000000 ---------------
21.2 25699.65 0.0000012 0.0000002 0.000200 0.000033 0.000000
20.3 25890.14 0.0000039 0.0000004 0.000642 0.000057 0.000000 warning -
19.4 26080.63 0.0000115 0.0000006 0.001982 0.000095 0.000000 load sheds
18.5 26271.13 0.0000328 0.0000010 0.005868 0.000157 0.000000
17.7 26461.62 0.0000894 0.0000017 0.016656 0.000254 0.000000
can appear
16.9 26652.11 0.0002330 0.0000026 0.045318 0.000408 0.000000 to occur at
16.0 26842.60 0.0005806 0.0000041 0.118123 0.000646 0.000001 different %
15.2 27033.09 0.0013812 0.0000062 0.294801 0.001011 0.000002
14.4 27223.58 0.0031339 0.0000093 0.703970 0.001559 0.000007 load levels
13.6 27414.08 0.0067733 0.0000139 1.607262 0.002374 0.000019
12.8 27604.57 0.0139248 0.0000203 3.505661 0.003567 0.000049
12.0 27795.06 0.0271876 0.0000293 7.298278 0.005290 0.000123
11.3 27985.55 0.0503270 0.0000418 14.489008 0.007744 0.000297
10.5 28176.04 0.0881587 0.0000588 27.404648 0.011197 0.000684
9.8 28366.54 0.1458544 0.0000817 49.340149 0.016000 0.001510
9.1 28557.03 0.2274701 0.0001123 84.498868 0.022601 0.003175
8.3 28747.52 0.3338294 0.0001524 137.585140 0.031555 0.006356
7.6 28938.01 0.4604444 0.0002029 212.981405 0.043481 0.012050
6.9 29128.50 0.5966979 0.0002636 313.627661 0.058973 0.021579
6.2 29319.00 0.7275037 0.0003300 439.966399 0.078365 0.036333
5.5 29509.49 0.8376617 0.0003927 589.470300 0.101443 0.057332
4.9 29699.98 0.9172952 0.0004368 757.143111 0.127114 0.084476
4.2 29890.47 0.9653328 0.0004466 936.921174 0.153360 0.116035
3.5 30080.96 0.9886289 0.0004117 1123.342538 0.177556 0.148519
2.9 30271.46 0.9972702 0.0003356 1312.648220 0.197277 0.177645
2.2 30461.95 0.9995617 0.0002363 1502.893099 0.211163 0.199933
1.6 30652.44 0.9999568 0.0001397 1693.351411 0.219370 0.214090
1.0 30842.93 0.9999959 0.0000674 1883.840375 0.223328 0.221365
0.4 31033.42 0.9999987 0.0000254 2074.331880 0.224820 0.224271
Load shedding to remove Austrop-Sandow circuit overloads
generation transmission
LOLE LOLE
RESV% LOAD-MW LOLP TLOP GLOL-D/Y TLOL-D/Y TOTL-D/Y
22.1 66956.00 0.0000004 0.0000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.000001
21.2 67456.00 0.0000012 0.0000001 0.000003 0.000001 0.000004
20.3 67956.00 0.0000039 0.0000002 0.000010 0.000001 0.000011
19.4 68456.00 0.0000115 0.0000004 0.000029 0.000002 0.000031
18.5 68956.00 0.0000328 0.0000006 0.000084 0.000003 0.000086
17.7 69456.00 0.0000894 0.0000010 0.000232 0.000004 0.000236
16.9 69956.00 0.0002330 0.0000015 0.000615 0.000007 0.000622
16.0 70456.00 0.0005806 0.0000024 0.001563 0.000011 0.001574
15.2 70956.00 0.0013812 0.0000036 0.003799 0.000017 0.003816
14.4 71456.00 0.0031339 0.0000055 0.008833 0.000027 0.008860
13.6 71956.00 0.0067733 0.0000082 0.019635 0.000041 0.019676
12.8 72456.00 0.0139248 0.0000120 0.041690 0.000062 0.041752
12.0 72956.00 0.0271876 0.0000173 0.084488 0.000092 0.084580
11.3 73456.00 0.0503270 0.0000246 0.163376 0.000135 0.163511
10.5 73956.00 0.0881587 0.0000345 0.301211 0.000195 0.301406
9.8 74456.00 0.1458544 0.0000472 0.529378 0.000277 0.529655
9.1 74956.00 0.2274701 0.0000641 0.886719 0.000390 0.887109
8.3 75456.00 0.3338294 0.0000847 1.416075 0.000539 1.416615
7.6 75956.00 0.4604444 0.0001094 2.158461 0.000733 2.159193
6.9 76456.00 0.5966979 0.0001386 3.146670 0.000982 3.147652
6.2 76956.00 0.7275037 0.0001670 4.400033 0.001284 4.401317
5.5 77456.00 0.8376617 0.0001914 5.922297 0.001641 5.923937
4.9 77956.00 0.9172952 0.0002067 7.703882 0.002040 7.705923
4.2 78456.00 0.9653328 0.0002070 9.723858 0.002472 9.726330
3.5 78956.00 0.9886289 0.0001889 11.947046 0.002903 11.949949
2.9 79456.00 0.9972702 0.0001498 14.317933 0.003325 14.321258
2.2 79956.00 0.9995617 0.0001027 16.754972 0.003700 16.758673
1.6 80456.00 0.9999568 0.0000594 19.161745 0.004023 19.165768
1.0 80956.00 0.9999959 0.0000280 21.463148 0.004293 21.467442
0.4 81456.00 0.9999987 0.0000104 23.621519 0.004478 23.625998
 Overall effect of removing all
transmission overloads on the LOLE

1
Pr [gen is in service]

single area
unserved load
additional unserved load due
to a transmission constraint

0
0 x MW load
 Overall effect of removing all
transmission overloads on the LOLE

1
Pr [gen is out of service]

additional unserved load due

to a transmission constraint

single area
unserved load
0
Generation MW 0
Capability increasing load
 An Example of ERCOT Increase in LOLE Due to
Transmission Constraints
(CSC Areas, Monitor 345 kV Circuits, No Circuit Outages)

100

10
LOLE - days/year

0.1
generation
0.01 unserved load

0.001

0.0001
transmission
0.00001
unserved load
0.000001
4
6
9
2
5
9
3
8

16

23

33
.3
.8
.4

.7
.4
.2

.9
.8
.8
.9

.2
0.
1.
2.
4.
5.
6.
8.
9.
11
12
14

17
19
21

24
26
28
30

35
LOLE when the peak demand reaches the above % reserve level
See my dissertation on egpreston.com for more details.

The End