G.H.

Raisoni College Of Engineering

and Management, Pune
An Autonomous Institute Affiliated to Savitribai Phule
Pune University
(NAAC ACCREDITED)

TOPIC: PRESENTATION ON WATER DEMAND

AND POPULATION FORECASTING
TAE :-
Name of Group Members :
1. Pankaj Aware (88)
2. Kanak Bafna (90)
3.Rishi Choudhary (95)
WATER DEMAND
AND POPULATION
FORECASTING
 Average person consumesno more than 5 to 8
lit. of water per day.
 However total water drawn from public water
supply is quite high.
 Types of demand
1. Residential or domestic
2.Institutional use
3.Public or civic use
4.Industrial use
5.Water system loses
 Water is needed for
- Drinking
- Cooking
- Bathing
- Washing of cloths
- Washing of
utensils
- Washing of house
S.NO. Description Amount of water in Ipcd

1 Bathing 55

2 Washing of cloths 20

3 Flushing of WCs 30

4 Washing of house 10

5 Washing of utensils 10

6 Cooking 05

7 Drinking 05

Total 135
S.NO. institution Water Req.
(lit/head/day)
1 Hospitals 340 or 450 per bed
2 Hotels 180 per bed
3 Hostels 135
4 Boarding schools & collages 135
5 Restaurants 70 per seat
6 Airport & Seaport 70
7 Terminal stations 45
8 Day schools & collages 45
9 Offices 45
10 Cinema, concert hall & theater 15
11 Factories 45
12 Junction station 70
- Road washing =5
lit/cap/day
- Sanitation =3 to 5 lpcd
- Public =2 to 3 lpcd
parks = calculated by various
-- Fire
P fighting formulae in thousands
= Population
-Q = Quantity of water in Lit/min
-F = number of simultaneous fire
stream
S.NO. Authority Formulae

2 Kuchling’s formula Q(L/min) =3182 P^1/2

3 Freeman formula Q(L/min) = 1136(P/5+10)
& F= 2.8 P^1/2
S.NO. Industry Unit of production Water Req. in
kilolitre per
unit
1 Automobile Vehicle 40
2 Distillary Kilolitre (proof alcohol) 122-170
3 Fertilizer Tonne 80-200
4 Leather 100 kg (tonne) 4
5 Paper Toone 200-400
6 Special quality paper Toone 400-1000
7 Straw board Tonne 70-100
8 Petroleum Tonne (crude) 1.5-2.0
9 Steel Tonne 200-205
10 Sugar Tonne (cane crushed) 1-2
11 Textile 100 kg (goods) 8-14
 Leakages & overflows from reservoirs.
 Leakages from main & service pipe
connection.
 Leakages & losses on consumer
premises.
 Leakages & losses from public
taps.
 Under registration of water meters
(water thefts)
 Size of the city : per capita demand for big cities is
generally large as compared to that for smaller towns
as big cities have sewered houses.
 Presence of industries : more the industries more
will be the water required.
 Climatic condition : in winter seasons lesser water
demand & in summer seasonwater demand is more.
 Quality of water : If water is aesthetically & medically
safe, the consumption will increase as people will not
resort to private wells, etc.
 Pressure in the distribution system : more pressure more
will be demand & vice versa.
 Efficiency of water work administration : Leaks in water
mains & services & unauthorised use of water can be kept
to a minimum by surveys.
 Policy of metering & charging method : water tax is
charged in two different ways on the basis of meter
reading & on the basis of certain fixed monthly rate.
 System of supply : continuous system increase water
use whereas intermittent system
 The demand peaks
during summer,
Firebreak outs are
generally more in
summer, Increasing
demand. So , there is
seasonal variation.
 Hourly variations are very
important as they have a
wide range. During active
household working hours
i.e. from six to ten in the
morning & four to eight in
the evening, the bulk of the
daily req. is taken. During
other hours the req. is
negligible. Moreover, if a fire
breaks out, a huge quantity
of water is req. to be
supplied during short
duration, necessitating the
need for a maximum rate of
hourly supply.
POPULATION FORECASTING

Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the

projected population of a particular city, estimated for the design
period. Any underestimated value will make system inadequate for
the purpose intended; similarly overestimated value will make it
costly. Changes in the population of the city over the years occur, and
the system should be designed taking into account of the population
at the end of the design period.
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD

• This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable
development. If it is used for
• small, average or comparatively new cities, it will give lower population
estimate than actual
• value. In this method the average increase in population per decade is
calculated from the
• past census reports. This increase is added to the present population to
find out the population
• of the next decade. Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at
constant rate.
• Hence, dP/dt = C i.e., rate of change of population with respect to time is
constant.
• Therefore, Population after nth decade will be Pn= P + n.C (1)
• Where, Pn is the population after ‘n’ decades and ‘P’ is present population.
GEOMETRICAL INCREASE
METHOD
(OR GEOMETRICAL
PROGRESSION METHOD)
• In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is
assumed to
• remain constant. Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future
increment in
• population. Since this method gives higher values and hence should be applied
for a new
• industrial town at the beginning of development for only few decades. The
population at the
• end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be estimated as:
• Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n (2)
• Where, IG = geometric mean (%)
• P = Present population
• N = no. of decades.
INCREMENTAL INCREASE
METHOD

• This method is modification of arithmetical increase method and it is

suitable for an average
• size town under normal condition where the growth rate is found to be in
increasing order.
• While adopting this method the increase in increment is considered for
calculating future
• population. The incremental increase is determined for each decade from
the past population
• and the average value is added to the present population along with the
average rate of
• increase.
• Hence, population after nth decade is Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y (3)
• Where, Pn = Population after nth decade
• X = Average increase
• Y = Incremental increase
GRAPHICAL METHOD

• In this method, the populations of last few decades are

correctly plotted to a suitable scale on
• graph (Figure 5.1). The population curve is smoothly extended
for getting future population.
• This extension should be done carefully and it requires proper
experience and judgment. The
• best way of applying this method is to extend the curve by
comparing with population curve
• of some other similar cities having the similar growth
condition.
Graphical method of
population forecasting
Factors affecting changes in population are:

increase due to births

decrease due to deaths
increase/ decrease due to migration
increase due to annexation.