TOURISM

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Principles, Practices, Philosophies

Charles R. Goeldner
J. R. Brent Ritchie
TWELFTH EDITION
© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
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CHAPTER 20

Tourism's Future

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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 LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Examine forecasts concerning the growth of

international tourism.
• Identify the major global forces which are shaping
the tourism of tomorrow.
• Understand the impacts, both positive and
negative, that these forces are likely to have on
tourism markets and on the ability of destinations
to respond to the demands of these markets.

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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THE WORLD OF TOURISM IN 2020
FORECASTS OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS
ARRIVALS (MILLIONS) WORLDWIDE AND BY
REGION 1995-2020

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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UNWTO TOURISM TO THE YEAR 2020

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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UNWTO TOURISM TO THE YEAR 2020
(continued from previous slide)
Globalization
 growing power of international economic and market forces and
consequent reduced control of individual states and non-global
corporation
Localization
 conflict in developing countries between identity and modernity
 demand from groups defined on ethnicity, religion and social
structures to be recognized in their own rights
Socio-Environmental Awareness
 boosted public awareness of socio-cultural and environmental
issues
 greater media reporting on major global problems (e.g. reducing
water supplies)
Living and Working Environments
 growing urban congestion both in the industrialized and (especially)
developing worlds
Change from “Service” to “Experience” Economy
 focus switching to delivering unique experiences that personally
engage the customer
Marketing
 use of electronic technology to identify and communicate with
market segments and niches
© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
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 FORCES IMPACTING THE
FUTURE OF TOURISM
• Economic
• Political
• Continued growth of “Super-Europe”
• A decline in the role of the nation: the rise of the city state
• Environmental issues
• Technology
• Service robots
• Hotels of the future
• Transformation of the airlines industry
• Space tourism
• Terrorism and crisis management

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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 FORCES IMPACTING THE
FUTURE OF TOURISM
• Emergence of the knowledge-based society
• Moving from a service to an experience economy
• Demographic shifts
• The long-predicted “Chinese Elephant” is
becoming a tourism reality
• Diversity within a homogeneous world
• Quest for stability and security
(continued next slide)

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

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 FORCES IMPACTING THE
FUTURE OF TOURISM (CONTINUED)
• Tourism-driven migration
• The digital nomad
• When all tourists speak the local language
• The dichotomy of comfort versus authenticity
• The emergence of extreme/adventure/disaster or
dark tourism

© 2012 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

All Rights Reserved