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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Session 8
Network Analysis
(Resource Allocation &
Probability of Completion of Project)
Exercise - 3

Activity Description Preceded By Normal


Time in
Weeks
A Design Facilities --- 9
B Prepare Facilities A 14
C Select & Order Equipment A 4
D Receive & Trial of Equipment C 6
E Select Staff --- 14
F Train Staff E 6
G Install Equipment B,D 5
H Test Facilities F,G 2
Construction of Network

4
C
(4)
D
(6)
A 2
(14)
(9)
B
1 5
G
(14)
(5)
E (6) (2)
7
3 6
F H
Modified Network

4
C 13 17
2 (4)
D
9 9 (6)
A
(14)
(9)
1 B
5
0 0 23 23 G
(14)
(5)
E (6) (2) 7
3 6
F 28 28 H 30 30
14 22
Resource Requirement

Activity Duration Manpower


(In weeks) Requirement
A 9 2M
B 14 2M, 3E
C 4 4M
D 6 2E
E 14 5M, 7E
F 6 4M
G 5 2M,5E
H 2 1M, 3E
Manpower Requirement
1 1 1
W                   0   2   14   16   18 9                      

                                                             

                    C (4M) D (2E)                      

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

(1M,
                                                          3E)

  A (2M) B (2M, 3E) G (2M, 5E) H

                                                           

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3
W 1   3   5   7   9   1   3   5   7   9   1   3   5   7   9 0

  E (5M, 7E) F (4M)      

W1 W1 W1 W2
                            4   6   8   0                    

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
W 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 14 5 16 7 18 9 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

1 1 1 1
M 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 1 1 1 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1

E 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3
Probability of Computation of the
Project within Scheduled Time
Probability of Project Completeion

• Estimate time estimate of each activity by


estimating (i) most likely estimate, m, (ii)
pessimistic estimate, a, (iii) optimistic
estimate, b.
• Expected time of each activity = (a +4m + b)/6
• Variance of each activity:
σ2 = (b – a)2/36
• Add all the variances
Probability of Project Completeion

• Z = ( t – te )/ σ T
Thanks

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