Modeling Landslides in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)

Arturo S. Daag*, Margarita P. Dizon, Kimberley M. Vitto,

Hannah Melissa M. Baltazar, and Ron Stephen D. Pitapit. LEV––01
LEV 01
Department of Science and Technology - Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (DOST-PHIVOLCS)
*
Corresponding author: arturo.daag@phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

INTRODUCTION SLOPE INSTABILITY INDEX MAPPING

The Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)
predominantly consists of mountainous
topography with about 71% of the total
land area having 30 degrees slopes. CAR
geology generally consists of plutonic
(diorites) and volcanic rocks (dacite to
andesites). Fracturing and weathering of
these igneous rocks contribute to slope
instability resulting to landslides. CAR is
one of the seismically active regions in the
Philippines. Several active faults transect
the region resulting to extensive
earthquake triggered landslides in the
past. Further, the Philippines setting,
including that of CAR, makesTECTONIC
it prone
SETTING OFto
CAR
meteorological natural hazards like rain-
induced landslides. Understanding the
triggering thresholds for both earthquake-
and rain-induced landslides are
continually being developed for the
monitoring and warning.
Three methods were considered in
addressing the issues of landslides. These
are: 1.) Earthquake triggered landslides
using Newmark Method; 2) Rain induced
landslides: 2a) Slope Instability Slope
Mapping, 2b) Radial-based Function
Network (RBFN), 2c) DYNASLOPE system
for deep-seated landslides.
Geomorphology and active faults in CAR
Shallow translational landslides are the Stability Index Map using SinMAP
most commonly occurring slope failure in
CAR. Though, they are extensive,
predicting these landslides pose challenges
due to highly variability of natural
parameters such as soil hydraulic
properties, engineering strength and
slopes.
A Slope Stability Index Mapping (SINMap)
is being used to produce a rain-induced
landslide hazard map. This is a physically
based model that calculates factor of
Safety or Stability Index using the
following parameters: TECTONIC SETTING OF CAR
CAR is of 6 Provinces and 2 Cities
- It has mountainous topography with
very steep slopes and high elevation
-71% of land area have steep slopes
-Has several earthquake generators:
- Bangui Fault
-
-
Abra River Fault
Philippine Fault
Saturation and hydraulic conductivity of
- West Ilocos Fault System soil are considered in the model by using
- Chico Fault
- Hapap Fault rainfall, infiltration and stream orders
producing a wetness index map. The
resulting stability index map can be
calibrated using landslide inventory.
Parameters can be adjusted by regions /
engineering soil type.

MODELLING EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES RADIAL-BASED FUNCTION NETWORK METHOD

Landslides caused by severe ground
shaking due to large magnitude
earthquake can be modelled using
Newmark Method.
In this method, the critical acceleration [ac]
is calculated by the known Factor of
Safety [Fs]. Other parameters needed are
strength of the soil (cohesion, friction
angle), slope, soil density. Composite
ground acceleration scenarios
produced by estimating the probable
earthquake magnitudes of active faults,
using Wells and Coppersmith empirical
equation and Fukushima and
TECTONIC SETTING OF CAR
attenuation equation for the peak ground
acceleration.
Warning for rain triggered landslides can be done by studying the rainfall
threshold. A widely-used landslide threshold is being established by the
use of intensity-duration curve. However, this procedure needs a lot of
cumulative rainfall-landslide events in order to establish more robust
correlation curve. In this procedure, a radial-based function network was
used to determine the threshold by drawing the boundaries from the
rainfall events that did not produce landslides as well as rainfall events
that produced landslides from at least 10-year of data.
In order to establish a real-time landslide warning system, a satellite-
were based hourly rainfall (JAXA-GSMap) was used in combination of rain
gauge if available. Hourly Soil Moisture Index (SMI) is estimated using
Composite peak ground acceleration map Tank Model is plotted versus the hourly rainfall. The hourly progress of
these parameters are plotted as snake-line, where it is evaluated hourly
Tanaka
against establish critical line toTECTONIC
issue landslide warning.
SETTING OF CAR
SHALLOW TRANSLATIONAL LANDSLIDE WARNING SYSTEM
Hourly Rainfall
Risk Level based on Critical Lines
(Locally calibrated GSMaP) RBFN
H o u rly R a in fa ll (m m / h )

Value
0.1
0.2
Hourly rainfall

0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
(mm/h)

0.9

Soil Moisture Index （mm）

Soil Moisture Index

(estimated from tank model)
Critical Line (CL)
High Risk
Hourly rainfall (mm/h)

Illustration of rainfall runoff/infiltration Structure of tank model

Hourly rainfall (mm/h)

precipitation

The 1st tank

surface runoff

modelization
storage
infiltration
Safe zone
The 2nd tank Safe zone
Storage
intermediate runoff
Infiltration storage
surface runoff
infiltration

Resulting maps are calibrated from recent

intermediate runoff
The 3rd tank
ground water runoff
Base rock ground water runoff
storage

infiltration

earthquake-induced landslides events. Earthquake-induced landslide hazard

SMI is the total water depth of the three tanks. Soil Moisture Index (mm)
map in CAR
Soil Moisture Index (mm)

DYNASLOPE FOR DEEP-SEATED LANDSLIDES

DYNASLOPE is a technology to community landslide warning system for
deep-seated landslides. Landslide detection or subsurface movement are
monitored using series of tilt and soil moisture sensors buried deep in the
ground where subsurface ground movement occurs. It works in the premise
where initial subsurface ground motions are detected prior to a catastrophic
landslide. Likewise, rainfall and tension cracks are being monitored for an
integrated warning decision.
TECTONIC SETTING OF CAR

In total, about 50 deep-seated landslide sites are established and being

monitored by PHIVOLCS in partnership with the LGUs and the communities
at risk. A warning and communication protocol for landslide warning system
is emplaced. Monitoring and warning are on 24/7 basis where-in an
established warning system and action plans from LGUs and communities
are already coordinated and continually being improved through capacity
building.

Philippine Institute of Department of Science and Technology

Volcanology and Seismology