Credigy Team 1 Final Presentation 1

Credigy
Data Analysist
What is the problem?
2
“ The goal of forecasting is not
to predict the future but to tell
you what you need to know to
take meaningful action in the
present
- Paul Saffo
3
1 Initial Research
Helpful information that will help us with forecasting
What affects
Automobiles?
• Elections • Gas and oil • Many • Many car
Technological
Political
Economical
Socio-cultural
• Different prices change millennials companies are
politicians often are moving creating
have different • Gas and oil towards electrical cars
views on prices may electrical cars • New
energy heavily affect • More people innovations
• Clean Energy car prices are acting may heavily
Revolution towards a impact the
healthier automobile
environment market
5
2 Early Trends
Early trends found within the data given
Early Trends
Found
- Southern States account for - Cars made after 2013 brought

majority of Car Sales in more for their expected
- Top 5 cars: Dodge, Chevrolet, value
Jeep, Nissan, and Ford - More vehicles were sold
- More expensive cars brought during Q1-Q2
in more for their expected - Cars with higher mileage
value have a lower rate of return
from expected
7
Percentage Back
Data
% Back 20% 50% 70% 90% 100%
After or
during 2013 14% 30% 54% 55% 60%
Before 2013 86% 70% 46% 45% 40%
Percentage Formula: (Sold Value / Estimated Value)

ex: 500$ / 1000$ = 50%
8
% Back Trend -
Quarters
% Back
90 1400
80
1200
70
1000
60
50 800
40 600
30
400
20
200
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average % Back Sale Points

9
% Back
% Back Trend - 90 1400
Quarters 80
1200
Though we see a large increase, there is
also less sale points to look at 70
1000
However, sale points have consistently 60
been decreasing and it shows that the
percentage back has consistently stayed the 50 800
same until 2020
40 600
How much is the percentage back
average increasing?
30
400
2018 – 2019 average: 59%
20
2020 (Q1-Q3) average: 65% 200
10
There is a 6% increase from 2018 & 2019 0 0

to 2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
10
Average % Back Sale Points
Sales per State Sales
- Southern states are the 12%
majority of automobile sales 9%
- Georgia, Texas, and 8%

58%
Alabama account for a little 7%
more than 1/4th of sales 6%
Georgia Texas Alabama Illinois Louisiana Rest
11
Georgia Sales Sales
- Top 5 Cars: Dodge, Nissan,

Toyota, Chevrolet and Jeep 32% 29%
- Dodge heavily outpreforms

every other car, accounting
7% 14%
for 29% of all GA 7%
11%
Automobile Sales
Dodge Nissan Toyota Chevrolet Jeep Rest
12
Texas Sales Sales
- Top 5 Cars: Dodge,

27%
Chevrolet, Ford, Nissan, and 35%
Jeep
- Dodge heavily outpreforms 11%
every other car, accounting 8%
10%
8%
for 27% of all TX
Automobile Sales
Dodge Chevrolet Ford Nissan Jeep Rest
13
Alabama Sales Sales
- Top 5 Cars: Dodge, Nissan, 21%

Chevrolet, Chrysler, and Jeep 39%
- Dodge heavily outpreforms 12%
every other car, accounting
for 21% of all AL Automobile 8%
11%
9%
Sales
Dodge Nissan Chevrolet Chrysler Jeep Rest
14
Dodge What makes Dodge so good?
1. Top 10 “Customer Report Reliability
Rankings”
2. Relatively cheap vehicles for a good package
3. Famous American Cars such as Challenger,

Charger, Grand Caravan and Durango
4. Reliable cars throughout years which are still

popular
Teague, C. (2019, November 16). Dodge Is Ranked the Most Reliable American Brand by Consumer Reports. Retrieved December 02,
2020, from https://www.thedrive.com/news/31058/dodge-is-ranked-the-most-reliable-american-brand-by-consumer-reports
15
3 Further Analyzing
Further analyzing given data and trends
Vehicles
Vehicles that had the most Vehicle that stood out:

sales:
Dodge (1st) Jeep (6th)
Chevrolet (2nd)
Had the highest average of percent back
Nissan (3rd) (73%) out of the top states
17
Percentage Back
among Dodge
Average % Back
100 250
90
80 200
70
60 150
50
40 100
30
20 50
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 63%
Average Percent Back Sale Points
Total Sales: 1305 (1st) 18
Average % Back
Percentage Back 100 250
among Dodge 90
2018 – 2019 average: 80 200
63% 70
60 150
2020 average: 50
71%
40 100
Total increase: 8% 30
20 50
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average taken from quarters (Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 / 4)
19
Percentage Back
among Chevrolet
Average % Back
70 160
60 140
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 57%
Total Sales: 926 (2nd ) 20
Average % Back
among Chevrolet
60 140
2018 – 2019 average: 120

57% 50
100
40
2020 average: 80
57% 30
60
40
Despite the heavy decrease in sale points, the average
percent back has remained constant 10 20
Therefore, we can be more certain with our other
statistics
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
21
Average taken from quarters (Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 / 4) Average Percent Back Sale Points
Percentage Back
among Nissan
Average % Back
70 160
60 140
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 56%
Total Sales: 850 (3rd ) 22
Average % Back
among Nissan
60 140
2018 – 2019 average: 120

55% 50
100
40
2020 average: 80
56% 30
60
40
Despite the heavy decrease in sale points, the average
percent back has remained constant 10 20
Therefore, we can be more certain with our other
statistics
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
23
Average taken from quarters (Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 / 4) Average Percent Back Sale Points
Percentage Back
among Jeep
Average % Back
100 80
90 70
80
60
70
60 50
50 40
40 30
30
20
20
10 10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average Percent Back Sale Points Average: 73%

Total Sales: 489 (6th ) 24
Average % Back
among Jeep 90
70
2018 – 2019 average: 80

60
72% 70
50
60
2020 average: 50 40
77%
40
30
20
20
10
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
25
Vehicle Data
State Dodge Chevrolet Nissan Jeep
Place in Sales 1st 2nd 3rd 6th
# of Sales
1305 926 850 489
Average Percent
Back 2018-2020
(all Vehicle 63% 57% 56% 73%
Average)
Increase from
2018&2019 – 2020
(Quarterly 8% 0% 1% 5%
Average)
2020 Average
Percent Back
(Quarterly 71% 57% 56% 77%
Average)
26
Key Takeaways
Dodge and Jeep overall Vehicles such as Chevrolet and

preformed the best and are on Nissan stayed consistent despite
track to increase the most the decrease in sales
Jeep overall has the best We can be more confident

percentage back average despite despite a decrease in data points
being 6th most sales
27
States
States that had the most State that stood out:

sales:
Georgia (1st) Florida (7th)
Texas (2nd)
Had the highest average of percent back
Alabama (3rd) (64%) out of the top states
28
Percentage Back in
Georgia
Average % Back
90 160
80 140
70 120
60
100
50
80
40
60
30
20 40
10 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 56%
Total Sales: 918 (1st ) 29
Average % Back
Percentage Back in 90 160
Georgia 80 140
2018 – 2019 average: 70

120
55% 60
100
50
2020 average: 80
67% 40
60
30
Total increase: 12%
40
20
10 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
30
Percentage Back in
Texas
Average % Back
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 59%
Average Percent Back Sales Points
Total Sales: 603 (2nd ) 31
Average % Back
Texas
100 100
2018 – 2019 average:
59% 80 80
2020 average: 60 60
65%
40 40
Total increase: 6%
20 20
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
32
Average Percent Back Sales Points
Percentage Back in
Alabama
Average % Back
70 100
90
60
80
50 70
40 60
50
30 40
20 30
20
10
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 57%
Average Percent Back Sale Points Total Sales: 586 (3rd )
33
Average % Back
Alabama 90
60
2018 – 2019 average: 80
58% 50 70
60
40
2020 average: 50
55% 30
40
Total increase: -3% 20 30
20
10
10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
34
Percentage Back in
Florida
Average % Back
90 80
80 70
70 60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
Average: 64%
Total Sales: 388 (7th ) 35
Average % Back
Florida 80 70
2018 – 2019 average: 70

60
64% 60
50
50
2020 average: 40
72% 40
30
30
Total increase: 8%
20
20
10 10
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
36
State Data
State Georgia Texas Alabama Florida
Place in Sales 1st 2nd 3rd 7th
# of Sales 918 603 586 388
Average Percent
Back 2018-2020
(all Vehicle 56% 59% 57% 64%
Average)
Increase from
2018&2019 – 2020
(Quarterly 12% 6% -3% 8%
Average)
2020 Average
Percent Back
(Quarterly 67% 65% 55% 72%
Average)
37
Key Takeaways
Georgia, Texas, and Florida Alabama, despite being 3rd in

have all increased from 6-12% sales has underperformed in all
during 2020 compared to categories
2018&2019
All other states have had a
Florida, overall, is preforming healthy increase
the best
38
3 Recommendations
Given forecast with the analyzed data and trends
Credigy
Recommendations
Credigy should:
Jeeps and Dodges have seen the most increase in
Invest into portfolios that are heavy in Jeeps and average percent back to estimated value
Dodges
Despite being top three in sales, Alabama has

Take cars from Alabama and take them to other greatly underperformed
states such as Georgia or Florida
Vehicles made before 2013 saw a lower

Invest into vehicle portfolios that have less cars percentage back to estimated value
made before 2013
40
Going Forward
We cannot control the future, but
we can place ourself in a position
where we can benefit from the
future.
41
Credigy
Team 1
╸ Jonathan Le, Jasmin Flores,
Erion Soloman, Jalin Manly,
Israel Ramirez
42
Citations
Unsplash. (n.d.). Beautiful Free Images & Pictures. Retrieved December 02, 2020, from https://unsplash.com/
Are Georgia Car Insurance Rates Increasing?: The Zebra. (n.d.). Retrieved December 02, 2020, from
https://www.thezebra.com/auto-insurance/georgia-car-insurance/ga-car-insurance-rate-trends/
Top 10 Reasons to Buy a Chevy. (n.d.). Retrieved December 02, 2020, from
https://www.newsmyrnachevy.com/blogs/692/top-10-reasons-to-buy-a-chevy/
Saffo, P. (2014, August 01). Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Retrieved December 02, 2020, from
https://hbr.org/2007/07/six-rules-for-effective-forecasting
Reeves, E. (2020, September 11). Is Dodge More Reliable Than You Think These Days? Retrieved December 02,
2020, from https://www.motorbiscuit.com/is-dodge-more-reliable-than-you-think-these-days /
Teague, C. (2019, November 16). Dodge Is Ranked the Most Reliable American Brand by Consumer Reports.
Retrieved December 02, 2020, from https://www.thedrive.com/news/31058/dodge-is-ranked-the-most-reliable-
american-brand-by-consumer-reports
43

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Credigy

• Elections • Gas and oil • Many • Many car

- Southern States account for - Cars made after 2013 brought

% Back 20% 50% 70% 90% 100%

Before 2013 86% 70% 46% 45% 40%

Percentage Formula: (Sold Value / Estimated Value)

Average % Back Sale Points

There is a 6% increase from 2018 & 2019 0 0

- Southern states are the 12%

majority of automobile sales 9%

- Georgia, Texas, and 8%

Georgia Texas Alabama Illinois Louisiana Rest

- Top 5 Cars: Dodge, Nissan,

- Dodge heavily outpreforms

Dodge Nissan Toyota Chevrolet Jeep Rest

- Top 5 Cars: Dodge,

Dodge Chevrolet Ford Nissan Jeep Rest

- Top 5 Cars: Dodge, Nissan, 21%

Dodge Nissan Chevrolet Chrysler Jeep Rest

2. Relatively cheap vehicles for a good package

3. Famous American Cars such as Challenger,

4. Reliable cars throughout years which are still

Vehicles that had the most Vehicle that stood out:

2018 – 2019 average: 80 200

2018 – 2019 average: 120

2018 – 2019 average: 120

Average Percent Back Sale Points Average: 73%

2018 – 2019 average: 80

Dodge and Jeep overall Vehicles such as Chevrolet and

Jeep overall has the best We can be more confident

States that had the most State that stood out:

2018 – 2019 average: 70

Total increase: -3% 20 30

2018 – 2019 average: 70

Georgia, Texas, and Florida Alabama, despite being 3rd in

Despite being top three in sales, Alabama has

Vehicles made before 2013 saw a lower

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