Sampling dan Distribusi

Sampling

Pertemuan ke-3
Sub Topics
 Survey and Census
 Population and Sample
 Inferential Statistic
 Sampling
 Sample Design
 Sampling Distribution
 Mean sampling distribution
 The other statistic sampling distribution
Surveys
What is a survey?

A process of presenting a standard series of questions to a

sample of persons.

The survey is the most widely used technique in economy

because it is best suited for looking at the complex social world.
To capture that world accurately, we have to measure it
“in situ.”
… That means taking information from selected people,
from where they are usually found.

Measures of many phenomena of interest are taken. The

purpose is to accurately reflect the beliefs, attitudes, and
behaviors of the sample in order to generalize accurate
information to a target population.
Surveys
 Survey research typically uses sampling rather than taking
census.
Sampling vs. Taking a Census
 Sampling: selecting cases (elements)—or locating people (or other units of
analysis)—from a target population in order to study the population.
 Taking a Census: using all cases in an entire target (all elements) in order to
study the population
So why don’t we always take a census?

 A “Sample” is a:
 Noun: the group from whom data are (or were) gathered, and
 Verb: to select cases that represent a population—not a musical term here

 There are multiple ways to sample, but the goal is for the
sample to maximally represent the target population
Sample vs. Population

Sample
Population
Sampling
 Types of Samples (Multiple units of analysis can be sampled):

Cases Persons in Field Studies Situations

Archival Data Experiment Participants
Persons answering a Survey

 Depending on how the sample was generated, there are limits

to how much findings can be generalized from it.

 One aims for broad generalizability, but type of sampling is

also determined by the:
 complexities of the target population, and
 researchers’ resources
Sampling
Sampling Techniques

 Nonprobability: Sampling methods that do not let us

know in advance the likelihood of selecting for the
sample each element or case from a population
vs.
 Probability: Sampling methods that allow us to know
in advance how likely it is that any element of a
population will be selected for the sample

Knowing the chance of selection allows one to control

sampling bias (under or overrepresentation of a
population characteristic in a sample)
Nonprobability Sampling
 Nonprobability
(Very common in psychology, medicine, sociology)

1. Availability Sampling, convenience sampling

Selection of cases based on what is easiest to do
 Experiments
 Exploratory and Qualitative research
 Avoid this if you can

2. Quota Sampling
Aspects of target population are known. Selects
availability sample ensuring that it reflects known
aspects of population
Nonprobability Sampling
3. Snowball Sampling
Respondent-driven sampling, initial respondents refer
others to the researcher
 Usually used with hard-to-discover populations
 Bias introduced by structured nature of affiliation
 Can be improved with incentives to subjects to recruit a certain
number of new respondents

4. Purposive Sampling
Targets select people for a sample because of their
unique position
 Helps get understanding of systems or processes or
information on a target population
 Not representative of population in general
Nonprobability Sampling
Critiques
Limited generalizability—one cannot judge representativeness.

Researchers should estimate who the sample represents . . . The

sample at least represents populations that are similar to it.

Why use nonprobability samples? Nonprobability does not mean,

“intentional attempt to get a sample that is not representative:”
1. Well-suited for exploratory and evaluation research
2. Sampling frames (lists from which samples are drawn) are at
times inadequate or nonexistent
3. Quick, efficient
4. Can be effectively used to study and describe social and social
psychological “processes”
5. Any research is limited, but not having research is worse.
6. Across samples, repeatedly finding the same results supports
generalizability.
Probability Sampling
Sampling Techniques
 Probability Sampling: Sampling method reveals in advance the
likelihood that any one element will be selected for the sample

 Probability sampling begins with a sampling frame, or a list of all

elements (or other units containing the elements) in a population.

 E.g., Phone book, All Universities, Known Addresses, Subscribers to a

magazine.

 If a sampling frame is incomplete (which they usually are) then the accuracy
of the sample is compromised. The researcher has the burden of assessing
the sampling error or bias.
Probability Sampling

1. Simple Random Sampling

Cases are identified strictly on the basis of chance.
 Random number table to select from sampling frame
 Random digit dialing
 Equal probability of selection

2. Systematic Random Sampling

First case selected randomly from list, subsequent
cases are selected at equal intervals.
 Typically the same as Simple Random Sampling
 Be aware of periodicity
Probability Sampling
3. Cluster Sampling
 Use when sampling frame is difficult to obtain, but
clusters are identifiable.
 Randomly select clusters, then use obtainable
sampling frames within the clusters to select
cases.

 Because clusters are generally homogeneous

(e.g., all white churches) it is better to maximize
the number of clusters and minimize number
of cases from each cluster
Probability Sampling
 Multistage cluster sampling

 Selecting clusters in two or more hierarchical

stages
(e.g., selecting states, then selecting places, then
members)

 Keep stages to a minimum because each stage

produces sampling error; more stages, more error
Probability Sampling

4. Stratified Random Sampling

Sampling frame divided into strata, cases drawn from
each stratum randomly.

 Small subpopulations of interest may yield too few

cases in simple random sampling. To compensate,
the researcher draws samples from each
subpopulation independently.

Example: Latino population of Santa Clara County is

around 25%. A random sample of 100 would
produce 20 – 30 Latinos—too few to generalize to
Santa Clara County Latinos.
Probability Sampling
4. Stratified Random Sampling
 Proportionate Stratified Sampling
Ensuring that population proportions are reflected in
proportions of each stratum of sample.
 Population: 4% black, 25% Latino, 27% Asian, 44% white
 Sample of 1,000: 40 black, 250 Latino, 270 Asian, 440 white

 Disproportionate Stratified Sampling

Population proportions are NOT reflected in
proportions of each stratum of sample.
 Population: 4% black, 25% Latino, 27% Asian, 44% white
 Sample of 1,000: 250 black, 250 Latino, 250 Asian, 250 white
 Idea is to get a lot of cases in each stratum
 When combining all cases into one sample, use weighted
averages
Kesalahan Dalam Penelitian
 Kesalahan Non Sampling
 Kesalahan Sampling
Kesalahan Non Sampling
 Populasi yang tidak jelas
 Pertanyaan2 tidak tepat
 Adanya ketidaktepatan atau
kejelasan dalam definisi operasional
variabel
 Kesalahan lainnya (kesalahan teknis)
Kesalahan Sampling
 Kesalahan pengambilan sampel
sehingga hasil penelitian tidak
mencerminkan populasi.
 Penguasaan persebaran dan
karakteristik populasi mutlak
diperlukan.
Distribusi Sampling
 Distribusi Sampling merupakan distribusi
teoritis (distribusi kemungkinan) dari
semua hasil sampel yang mungkin,
dengan ukuran sampel yang tetap N,
pada statistik (karakteristik sampel) yang
digeneralisasikan ke populasi.
 Distribusi Sampling memungkinkan untuk
memperkirakan probabilitas hasil sampel
tertentu untuk statististik tersebut.
  Merupakan jembatan, karena melalui
distribusi sampling dapat diketahui
karakteristik populasi.
Distribusi Sampling
 Secara umum informasi yang perlu
untuk mencirikan suatu distribusi secara
cukup akan mencakup:
 Ukuran Kecenderungan Memusat
(mean, median, modus)
 Ukuran Persebaran Data (range,
standar deviasi)
 Bentuk distribusi
 Strategi Umum penerapan statistik
inferensial adalah pindah dari sampel ke
populasi melalui distribusi sampling
Distribusi Sampling
 Parameter: nilai – nilai pengukuran
pada populasi.
 Nilai statistik: nilai observasi dari
sampel yang dipergunakan sebagai
dasar untuk menduga nilai
parameter.
Lambang Parameter dan Statistik
Besaran Lambang Lambang
X
Parameter Statistik
(Populasi) (Sampel)
Rata-rata μ X

Varians σ2 S2
Simapangan baku σ S
Jumlah Observasi N n
Proporsi P p
Jenis Distribusi Sampling

1. Distribusi Sampling Rata-rata

2. Distribusi Sampling Proporsi
3. Distribusi Sampling yang Lain
Jenis Distribusi Sampling
 Distribusi Sampling Mean : Distribusi sampling dari rata - rata
sampel adalah distribusi rata - rata aritmetika dari seluruh
sampel acak berukuran n yang mungkin yang dipilih dari
sebuah populasi.
 Distribusi sampling proporsi : Distribusi sampling dari proporsi
adalah distribusi proporsi-proporsi dari seluruh sampel acak
berukuran n yang mungkin yang dipilih dari sebuah populasi.
 Distribusi Sampling perbedaan/penjumlahan :
 Terdapat 2 populasi
 Untuk setiap sampel berukuran n1 dari populasi pertama dihitung
sebuah statistik S1 dan menghasilkan sebuah distribusi sampling
dari statistik S1 yang memiliki mean μs1 dan deviasi standard σs1
 Dari populasi kedua, untuk setiap sampel berukuran n2 dihitung
statistik S2 yang akan menghasilkan sebuah distribusi sampling
dari statistik S2 yang memiliki mean μs2 dan deviasi standard σs2
Distribusi Sampling Rata-rata
a. Pemilihan sampel dari populasi terbatas
1. Utk pengambilan sampel tanpa pengembalian
atau n/N > 5% x  
 N n
x 
n N 1
2. Utk pengambilan sampel dgn pengembalian atau
n/N ≤ 5%
x  

x 
n
 Contoh Soal
Sebuah toko memiliki 5 Karyawan A,B,C,D,E dengan
upah perjam: 2,3,3,4,5. Jika upah yang diperoleh
dianggap sebagai populasi, tentukan: (tanpa
Pengembalian)
a.Rata-rata sampel 2 unsur
b.Rata-rata dari rata-rata sampel
c.Simpangan baku dari rata sampel
Banyaknya sampel yang mungkin adalah
5!
C 
5
2 = 10 buah
2! (5  2)!
 Distribusi Sampling mean
Teorema Sampling populasi terdistribusi
normal:
Bila sampel-sampel random diulang-ulang
dengan ukuran n diambil dari suatu populasi
terdistribusi normal dengan rata-rata μ dan
standar deviasi σ, maka distribusi sampling
rata-rata sampel akan normal dengan rata-
rata μ dan standar deviasi

X 
n
 Distribusi Sampling
Rata-rata
Distribusi Sampling
Rata-rata
b. Pemilihan sampel dari populasi yg tidak terbatas

x   dan  x 
n
c. Daftar distribusi normal untuk distribusi sampling
rata-rata
1. Utk populasi terbatas atau n/N > 5%
X  
Z 
 N n
n N 1
2. Utk populasi tdk terbatas atau n/N ≤ 5%
X  
Z 

n
SOAL
Upah per jam pekerja memiliki rata-rata
Rp.500,- perjam dan simpangan baku
Rp.60,-. Berapa probabilitas bahwa upah
rata-rata 50 pekerja yang merupakan
sampel random akan berada diantara
510,- dan 520,- ?
Diket:
µ = 500; Simp b: 60,- ; n = 50 ; X =
510 dan 520
X = 510 maka Z = 1.18
X = 520 maka Z = 2.36

P (1.18 < Z < 2,36) = P (0<Z<2,36) –

P(0<Z<1.18)
= 0.4909 – 0.3810
= 0.1099
 Distribusi Sampling Proporsi
 Distribusi sampling dari proporsi adalah
distribusi proporsi-proporsi dari seluruh
sampel acak berukuran n yang mungkin
yang dipilih dari sebuah populasi.
 Proporsi kesuksesan desa yang mendapat
bantuan program.
 Perbedaan persepsi penduduk miskin dan
kaya terhadap pembangunan mall, dilihat dari
proporsi ketersetujuannya
Distribusi Sampling Proporsi

 Proporsi dr populasi dinyatakan P

X
N
X
 Proporsi utk sampel dinyatakan p
n
1. Utk pengambilan sampel dgn pengembalian
atau jika ukuran populasi besar
dibandingkan dgn ukuran sampel yi n/N ≤
5% p  P
P(1  P )
p 
n
2. Utk pengambilan sampel tanpa
pengembalian atau jika ukuran populasi
kecil dibandingkan dgn ukuran sampel yi
n/N > 5%
p  P
P(1  P) N n
p 
n N 1
 SOAL
Sebuah toko memiliki 6 karyawan, misalkan
A,B,C untuk yang senang membaca dan X,Y,Z
untuk yang tidak senang membaca. Jika dari
6 karyawan tersebut diambil sampel yang
beranggotakan 4 karyawan (pengambilan
sampel tanpa pengembalian), tentukan:
a. Banyaknya sampel yang mungkin diambil
b. Distribusi sampling proporsinya
b. Rata-rata dan simpangan baku sampling
proporsinya
Distribusi Sampling yang Lain
a. Distribusi sampling beda dua rata-rata
1. Rata-rata  x  x  1   2
1 2

2. Simpangan baku  12  22
x  x2
 
1
n1 n2
3. Untuk n1 dan n2 dgn n1, n2 > 30
( X 1  X 2 )  ( 1   2 )
Z
 X X
1 2
 Soal
Misalkan rata-rata pendapatan manajer dan karyawan, Rp.
50.000,- dengan simpangan baku Rp. 15.000,- dan 12.000,-
dengan simpangan baku 1.000,-. Jika diambil sampel random
manajer sebanyak 40 orang dan karyawan sebanyak 150
orang. Tentukan:
a.Beda rata-rata pendapatan sampel
b.Simpangan baku rata-rata pendapatan sampel
c.Probabilitas beda rata-rata pendapatan manajer dan
karyawan biasa lebih dari 35.000,-
Diket:
µ = 50.000 µ = 50.000
Simp: 15.000 Simp b : 12.000
n1 = 40 n2 = 150
b. Distribusi sampling beda dua proporsi
1. Rata-rata
 P1 P 2  P1  P2
2. Simpangan baku
P1 (1  P1 ) P2 (1  P2 )
 P1 P 2  
n1 n2
3. Untuk n1 dan n2 dgn n1, n2 ≥ 30
( p1  p 2 )  ( P1  P2 )
Z
 P1 P 2
X1 X 2
p1  p 2  
n1 n2
 Contoh Soal
Bola lampu produksi pabrik PHILLIPS memiliki umur rata-rata
1.600 jam dengan simpangan baku 225 jam, sedangkan bola
lampu produksi SHELL memiliki umur rata-rata 1.400 jam
dengan simpangan baku 150 jam. Jika diambil sampel random
sebanyak 150 bola lampu dari masing-masing merek untuk
diuji, tentukan :
a.Beda rata-rata umur bola lampu tersebut
b.Simpangan baku rata-rata umur bola lampu tersebut
c.Probabilitas bahwa merek PHILLIPS memiliki umur rata-rata
paling sedikit 175 jam lebih lama daripada merek SHELL
d.Probabilitas beda rata-rata umur bola lampu PHILLIPS dan
SHELL lebih dari 160 jam
Contoh Soal
Empat persen barang di gudang A adalah cacat dan
sembilan persen barang di gudang B adalah cacat.
Jika diambil sampel random sebanyak 150 barang
dari gudang A dan 200 barang dari gudang B,
tentukan :
a.rata-rata beda dua proporsi sampel tersebut
b.Simpangan baku beda dua proporsi sampel tersebut
c.Probabilitas beda persentase barang yang cacat
dalam gudang A 3% lebih besar dariapda gudang B