Faculty of Chemical Engineering

Universiti Teknologi MARA

FTA and ETA

PHA Methodology
• Process Hazards Checklists
• Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PrHA)
• What-if Analysis
• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Hazards Surveys/ Hazards Indices
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
• Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
• Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis
 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
• Originated in the aerospace industry.
• Used extensively in the nuclear power industry.
• Becoming more popular in the chemical process
industries.
• Provides a traceable, logical, quantitative
representation of causes, consequences and event
combinations.
• Top-down approach
• Starts with a well-defined event (top event) and works
backwards to identify the causes of the top event.
Logical Functions in FTA

1. Top Event and Intermediate Events

 The rectangle is used to represent the

TOP event and any intermediate fault
events in a fault tree.
 The TOP event is the accident that is
being analyzed. Intermediate events are
system states or occurrences that
somehow contribute to the accident.
Logical Functions in FTA

2. Basic Event

 The circle is used to represent basic

events in a fault tree.
 It is the lowest level of resolution in the
fault tree.
Logical Functions in FTA

3. Undeveloped Event

 The diamond is used to represent events

that cannot be developed further in the
fault tree due to the lack of suitable
information.
Logical Functions in FTA

4. AND gate

 Used when the resulting output event

requires the simultaneous occurrence of
all input events.
Logical Functions in FTA

5. OR gate

 Used when the resulting output event

requires the occurrence of any individual
input event.
Example of FTA – Flat Tire
Example of FTA – Hot Water
Heater Explodes
 Minimal Cut Sets
• The minimal cut sets are the various sets of events
that could lead to the top event.
• Some of the minimal cut sets have a higher probability
than others.
• For instance, a set involving just two events is more
likely than a set involving three.
• The higher probability sets are examined carefully to
determine whether additional safety systems are
required.
• AND gate increase the number of events in the cut
sets, whereas OR gates lead to more sets.
 Quantitative FTA
• Quantitative FTA determines the probability of the top
event.
• Probability versus Reliability
• Reliability = 1 – Probability
• Probabilities are multiplied across an AND gate.
• Reliabilities are multiplied across and OR gate.
Example of Quantitative FTA
 Procedure
Solve the Fault Tree:

• Assign probabilities of failure to the lowest level event in each

branch of the tree.

• From this data the intermediate event frequency and the top
level event frequency can be determined using Boolean
Algebra and Minimal Cut Set methods.
Procedure TOP

Steps to get the final Boolean equation:

1. Replace AND gates with the product of their inputs. IE1 IE2
IE1 = A.B
IE2 = C.D
2. Replace OR gates with the sum of their inputs.
A B C D
TOP = IE1+IE2
= A.B+C.D
3. Continue this replacement until all intermediate event gates
have been replaced and only the basic events remain in the
equation.
TOP = A.B+C.D
Procedure
Minimal Cut Set theory:
• The fault tree consists of many levels of basic and
intermediate events linked together by AND and OR
gates. Some basic events may appear in different
places of the fault tree.

• The minimal cut set analysis provides a new fault tree,

logically equivalent to the original, with an OR gate
beneath the top event, whose inputs (bottom)are
minimal cut sets.

• Each minimal cut set is an AND gate with a set of basic

event inputs necessary and sufficient to cause the top
event.
Procedure
Boolean Algebra Reduction Example:
TOP = IE1 + IE2
= (A.B) + (A + IE3)
= A.B + A + (C.D.IE4)
= A.B + A + (C.D.D.B)
= A + A.B + B.C.D.D (D.D = D) TOP
= A + A.B + B.C.D (A + A.B = A)
= A + B.C.D
IE1 IE2

So the minimal cut sets are:

CS1 = A A B A IE3
CS2 = B.C.D
meaning TOP event occurs if
either A occurs OR (B.C.D) occurs. C D IE4

D B
 Event Tree Analysis (ETA)

• A bottom-up approach
• ETA begin with an initiating event and work toward a
final result.
• Provide information on how a failure can occur and
the probability of occurrence.
• Explore how safeguards and external influences, called
lines of assurance, affect the path of accident chains.
Example of ETA
 Past Exam Question
Company A produces liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from a mixture
of hydrocarbon gases. LPG is highly used as a fuel in heating
appliances and vehicles. LPG tanks are installed with pressure
controllers and high pressure alarms. The relief valves on top of
the tanks are designed to vent of excess gas in order to prevent the
tanks from rupturing. The high pressure alarms will alert the
operators to take necessary action to bring the plant back to
normal conditions or to shut down the plant. One of the possible
incident scenario is that accidental spilt of hydrocarbons may ignite
and the resulting fire may heat and LPG tank thus increasing its
temperature and pressure.

Construct an event tree analysis and identify four possible

outcomes that may arise from the accidental spillage of
hydrocarbons.
Initiating Event Level of Assurance Outcome

HP alarm Operator Relief Valve Operator s/d

alerts operator notice HP operate reactor
Yes Cont.
operation
Yes
Yes S/down
Fire from the
No Tank
accidental spilt
rupture
of H/C No
(explosion)
Cont.
Yes operation
Yes
Yes S/down
No
No No Explosion
Yes Vapor
No release
Yes
No S/down
No Explosion