FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO

DISASTERS AND DISASTER

RESILIENCE

A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40

Years, or More, to Live

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for

Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
 PLANET EARTH IS
IMPACTED EVERY YEAR BY
DISASTERS CAUSED BY---
EARTHQUAKES
TSUNAMIS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
VOLCANOES
FLOODS
WILDFIRES
DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S
DEFAULT OPTION
(PART II)
NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN
OPTION (PART I)
AND
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION (PART III)
HAZARDS:
HAZARDS: NOT
NOT AN
AN OPTION
OPTION FOR
FOR CITIES
CITIES

EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE AND
AND
HAZARDS
HAZARDS
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY

CITY

DISASTER
DISASTER
DISASTER
DISASTER RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
 RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
•NATURAL HAZARDS
•INVENTORY RISK
•VULNERABILITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK
•LOCATION

DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
DATA
DATA BASES
BASES COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY
AND
AND INFORMATION
INFORMATION

POLICY OPTIONS

HAZARDS:
•PREPAREDNESS
GROUND SHAKING •PROTECTION
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
TECTONIC DEFORMATION •RECOVERY
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
 NOTABLE
NOTABLE DISASTERS
DISASTERS IN
IN 2011
2011

FLOODS IN AUSTRALIA
NEW
NEWKNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGEFOR
FOR
COMMUNITY EARTHQUAKE/TSUNAMI IN
COMMUNITYDISASTER
DISASTER
RISK JAPAN
RISK REDUCTION
REDUCTION
WILDFIRES IN ARIZONA
AND TEXAS
CATALYSTS
CATALYSTS HURRICANE IRENE AND
TROPIAL STORM LEE
FOR
FOR CHANGE
CHANGE FLOODS : AUSTRALIA,
THAILANC
SUPER TORNADO
OUTBREAK

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
 A DISASTER OCCURS
WHEN THE CITY IS …

UN—PREPARED
UN—PROTECTED
UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
UN (NON)--RESILIENT
DISASTERS:
DISASTERS: THE
THE DEFAULT
DEFAULT OPTION
OPTION
FOR
FOR CITIES
CITIES

LOSS
LOSS OF
OF
FUNCTION ECONOMIC
FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSES
LOSES

CITY

ENVIRONMENTAL
ENVIRONMENTAL DEATH
DEATH
IMPACTS
IMPACTS SS AND
AND
INJURI
INJURI
ES
ES
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF AN
EARTHQUAKE
 FAULT DAMAGE/ LOSS
TSUNAMI
RUPTURE

SUBSIDENCE DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSS

FOUNDATION
DAMAGE/ LOSS
EARTHQUAKE
FAILURE

SOIL
DAMAGE/ LOSS
AMPLIFICATION

GROUND LIQUEFACTION DAMAGE/ LOSS

SHAKING

DAMAGE/LOSS LANDSLIDES DAMAGE/ LOSS

AFTERSHOCKS DAMAGE/ LOSS

SEICHE DAMAGE/ LOSS

 CAUSES
CAUSESOFOF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
DAMAGE/DISASTER

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE
FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS,
EARTHQUAKES STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS
EARTHQUAKES

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE

CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF
STRUCTURALSYSTEM

FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
HAITI: DEATH TOLL REACHED AN
ESTIMATED 220,OOO+; FEB 2010
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A TSUNAMI
 TSUNAMI HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER

WAVES
• WAVE RUNUP
• FLOODING
• WAVE RETREAT
• SHORELINE EROSION
 CAUSES
CAUSESOFOF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
DAMAGE/DISASTER

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF

INCOMING WAVES

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE

RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE

RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMIS BUILDINGS

FLOODING
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES

NO WARNING, OR
INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
THE DISASTER IN JAPAN THAT
BEGAN ON MARCH 11, 2011
HAPPENED WITHIN MINUTES

• It only took seconds for the P-

and S-waves and minutes for
the tsunami waves to reach
Sendai and other parts of
Japan’s coast..
THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE….
Japan was well
prepared to
cope with the
earthquake,
and ---
THE M9.0 EARTHQUAKE….
Japan’s
buildings and
infrastructure
were protected
through codes
and standards,
but ….
 THE TSUNAMI WAS
DEVASTATING
The tsunami that followed the M9.0
earthquake caused enormous
damage in Japan within minutes.
THE 7-10 M TSUNAM WAVES

The tsunami was

devastating, inun-
dating towns, im-
mobilizing airports
and roads, destroy-
ing buildings, and
treating everything
(e.g., people, cars)
in its path as debris.
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A SEVERE
WINDSTORM
 RISK ASSESSMENT
•SEVERE ACCEPTABLE RISK
WINDSTORMS RISK
•INVENTORY
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION

SEVERE WINDSTORM
RISK REDUCTION
DATA
DATA BASES
BASES
AND
AND INFORMATION
INFORMATION

Storm Hazards:
-Wind pressure POLICY OPTIONS
Gradient Wind
-Surge
-Rain •PREPAREDNESS
Wind profile -Flood
•PROTECTION
-Waves
-Salt water
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Ocean
Ocean •RECOVERY
-Missiles
COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY -Tornadoes • EDUCATIONAL SURGES
 HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE

OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)
 CAUSES
CAUSESOF
OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
DAMAGE/DISASTER
WIND AND WATER
PENETRATE BUILDING
ENVELOPE

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES

WINDOWS

SEVERE STORM SURGE AND HEAVY

SEVERE
PRECIPITATION
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
IRREGULARITIES IN
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

FAILURE OF NON-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
164 TORNADOS IN 24 HOURS
IMPACT 7 SOUTHEASTERN
STATES

EF4 and EF5 TORNADOES

OVERALL DEATH TOLL REACHES 350

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27-
THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011
TUSCALOOSA, AL: A MILE-WIDE
STORM; APRIL 27, 2011
TUSCALOOSA, AL: 15TH STREET
DAMAGE; APRIL 27, 2011
THE DISASTER KEEPT ON BUILDING
AFTER IRENE’S EXIT

RECORD-TO-NEAR-RECORD
FLOODING IN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADA HAPPENED AFTER IRENE
PASSED THROUGH

AUGUST 29 ---31, 2011

AUG 27: FORECAST AFTER 7:30 AM
LANDFALL IN OUTER BANKS, NC
IRENE CAUSED A $20+
BILLION DISASTER
 Irene smashed power poles,
ripped transmission wires and
flooded electrical stations over
the weekend, blacked out
more than 7.4 million homes
and businesses from South
Carolina to Maine, and killed
44 people in 13 states
VERMONT: FLOODING
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC
ERUPTION
 VOLCANO HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
• LAhARS
 CAUSES
CAUSESOF
OF
DAMAGE/DISASTER
DAMAGE/DISASTER

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL
BLAST

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS

(TEPHRA)

VOLCANIC IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH

VOLCANIC
(AVIATION)
ERUPTIONS
ERUPTIONS
IN PATH OF LAVA AND
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO
EVACUATE
MOUNT KARANGETANG
ERUPTS IN INDONESIA

ERUPTION OCCURS WITHIN

HOURS OF JAPAN’S M9.0
QUAKE AND TSUNAMI
DISASTER
FRIDAY, MARCH 11, 2011
 MOUNT KARANGETANG
ERUPTS
The 1,784 m
(5,853 ft)
volcano, which
is one of
Indonesia’s 129
active volcan-
oes, is located
on Siau.
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A FLOOD
 FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED
WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO
BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN
THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE
• EROSION
• SCOUR
• MUDFLOWS
 CAUSES
CAUSESOFOF
DAMAGE
DAMAGEAND
AND
DISASTER
DISASTER
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
FLOODS DAMAGE FROM WATER
FLOODS
WATER BORNE DISEASES
CASE
CASEHISTORIES
HISTORIES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
ROCKHAMPTON, AUSTRSLIA BECAME
AN ISLAND:JANUARY 3, 2011
 BANGKOK: OVER 370
DEAD AND LOSSES IN
EXCESS OF $6 BILLION
FROM PROLONGED
FLOODING

NOVEMBER 2011
SANDBAGGING: CHAO
PRAYA RIVER
DON MUANG AIRPORT: A
SHELTER FOR EVACUEES
THE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS OF A WILDFIRE
 WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• FIRE
• HOT GASES AND SMOKE
• HOT SPOTS
• BURNED OUT SLOPES (with
increased susceptibility to insect
infestation, erosion, and
landslides)
 WILDFIRE HAZARDS
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• SUNDOWNER WINDS
• SANTA ANNA WINDS
• LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR
QUALITY
• LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER
 CAUSES
CAUSESOFOF
DAMAGE
DAMAGEANDAND
DISASTER
DISASTER

LIGHTNING STRIKES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA

TO THE WILDLAND FIRE

WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

WILDFIRES
WILDFIRES (DAY/NIGHT)

DISASTER
DISASTER DRYNESS
LABORATORIES
LABORATORIES

HIGH TEMPERATURES

LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY

SMITHVILLE, TX FIRE
 Since the beginning of the
2011 wildfire season, Texas
has dealt with over 20,900
fires that have destroyed
more than 1,000 homes and
burned 3.6 million acres
(1.46 million hectares).
 DISASTERS MUST NOT
BECOME THE OPTION OF
CHOICE FOR CITIES
(SEE PART II)
TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR
NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION:
(PART III)