Project Management

Week 6-7:
Logic Framework Approach
& Review

Tran Van Ly
Industrial Engineering & Management
International University
21/10/08 Email: tvly@hcmiu.edu.vn 1
Room A2-504
 FMEA – Example

Microsoft Excel
97-2003 Worksheet

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 Recall – HW -CRASHING A PROJECT
Crash cost – Normal cost
Crash cost per period =
Normal time – Crash time
Activity Immediate Normal time Crash time Normal cost Crash cost
predecessor (weeks) (weeks) ($) ($)
A - 4 3 2000 2600
B - 2 1 2200 2800
C A 3 3 500 500
D B 8 4 2300 2600
E B 6 3 900 1200
F C, D 3 2 3000 4200
G E, F 4 2 1400 2000
Compute the crash cost per time period
 Find the critical path and
identify the critical activities
A C Total completion time is 17 weeks
(4) (3)
F
(3)
Start G
B D Finish
(4)
(2) (8)

Activity MCT Slope

E A 1 600
(6) B 1 600
C 0 NA
Need to crash so that to complete the project in
10 weeks D 4 75
B-D-F-G = 17w > 10w  Crash D 4 days E 3 100
A-C-F-G = 14w >10w F 1 1200
B-E-G = 12w >10w
G 2 300
 Find the critical path and
identify the critical activities
A C
(4) (3)
F
(3)
Start G
B D* Finish
(4)
(2) (4)

Activity MCT Slope

After crashing D 4 weeks
B-D*-F-G = 13w E A 1 600
B-E-G = 12w >10w (6) B 1 600
Critical path now is C 0 NA
A-C-F-G = 14w >10w:  Crash
G(2w) D 4 75
E 3 100
F 1 1200
G 2 300
 Find the critical path and
identify the critical activities
A C
(4) (3)
F
(3)
Start G*
B D* Finish
(2)
(2) (4)

Activity MCT Slope

After crashing G 2 weeks
B-D*-F-G* = 11w >10w: E A 1 600
B-E-G* = 10w (6) B 1 600
Critical path now is C 0 NA
A-C-F-G* = 12w >10w:  Crash
A(1w) D 4 75
E 3 100
F 1 1200
G 2 300
 Find the critical path and
identify the critical activities
A* C
(3) (3)
F
(3)
Start G*
B D* Finish
(2)
(2) (4)

Activity MCT Slope

After crashing A 1 weeks
B-E-G* = 10w E A 1 600
Critical path now are (6) B 1 600
B-D*-F-G* = 11w >10w C 0 NA
AND
A*-C-F-G* = 11w >10w: D 4 75
 Crash F(1w) E 3 100
F 1 1200
G 2 300
 Find the critical path and
identify the critical activities
A* C
(3) (3)
F*
(2)
Start G*
B D* Finish
(2)
(2) (4)

After crashing F 1 week Activity MCT Slope

B-E-G* = 10w E A 1 600
Critical path now are (6) B 1 600
B-D*-F*-G* = 10w
A*-C-F*-G* = 10w: C 0 NA
Note that their are critical paths as D 4 75
coincided randomly in this case
E 3 100
only, not happening all the time
Activities should be crashed are: F 1 1200
A (1w), D (4w), F(1w) and G(2w) G 2 300
Critical Success Factors
 Logic Framework Approach

Objectives Success Verification Assumptions

Measures

Goal (Aiming Point

Why)
Purpose (Change
expected after
outcomes - Why)
Outcomes (what you [Then] [&]
reach, the results so
what changes
occur/impact you
make)
Inputs (What you
invest - How) &
activities/resources
(What you do) [if]
Objectives

(Project) Goal: What is the overall

objective that the project will
contribute to?
Project purpose: What is the
purpose of project to be realized by
the project?
Outcomes: What are concrete
visible results to contribute to
realization of project purpose? What
changes and improvements will be
achieved by the project?
Inputs: What activities are required
and in what sequence in order to
achieve the expected outcomes?
Success Measures

(Project) Goal: What indicators are

linked to overall objective?
Project purpose: Indicators
showing the extent to which project
purpose has been achieved
Outcomes: What are the indicators
showing whether expected
outcomes have been achieved?
Inputs: What resources are required
for implementation of listed
activities?
 Verification

What are information sources for these indicators?

 Assumptions

Factors and conditions not under direct project control,

but necessary:
 To achieve the overall project objective?
 For results to be achieved as planned?
 Inputs – Outputs - Outcomes

Inputs Outputs
Machines Who you reach
Technologies The results

Outcomes
What changes occur (Short term: expect to see –
Awareness, knowledge, attitudes, skills, motivations…
Medium: changes in behavior, decision-making, policy,
practices…
What impact you make (long-term: hope to see – Health,
environmental, social, conditions, economic)
 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
(FMEA)
An analytical technique that combines the
technology and experience of people in identifying
foreseeable failure modes of a product or process
and planning for its elimination

Stages of FMEA:
1) Specifying Possibilities
2) Quantifying Risk
3) Correcting High Risk Causes
4) Re-evaluation of Risk
 Benefits
• Allows us to identify areas of our process that
most impact our customers
• Helps us identify how our process is most
likely to fail
• Points to process failures that are most
difficult to detect

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 FMEA

Specifying Possibilities
•Functions
•Possible Failure Modes
•Root Causes
•Effects
•Detection/Prevention
 FMEA

Quantifying Risk
•Probability of Cause
•Severity of Effect
•Effectiveness of Control to Prevent Cause
•Risk Priority Number
 FMEA

Correcting High Risk Causes

•Prioritizing Work
•Detailing Action
•Assigning Action Responsibility
•Check Points on Completion
 Re-evaluation of Risk
Recalculation of Risk Priority Number
RPN = (S) * (O) * (D)

S = SEVERITY
O = OCCURRENCE
D = DETECTION RAKING

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 Application Examples
• Manufacturing: A manager is responsible for moving a
manufacturing operation to a new facility. He/she wants to be
sure the move goes as smoothly as possible and that there
are no surprises.
• Design: A design engineer wants to think of all the possible
ways a product being designed could fail so that robustness
can be built into the product.
• Software: A software engineer wants to think of possible
problems a software product could fail when scaled up to
large databases. This is a core issue for the Internet.

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 What Can Go
Wrong?

What Is A Failure Mode?

• A Failure Mode is:
– The way in which the component, subassembly,
product, input, or process could fail to perform its
intended function
• Failure modes may be the result of upstream
operations or may cause downstream operations to fail
– Things that could go wrong

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 FMEA
• A structured approach to:
– Identifying the ways in which a product or process
can fail
– Estimating risk associated with specific causes
– Prioritizing the actions that should be taken to
reduce risk
– Evaluating design validation plan (design FMEA) or
current control plan (process FMEA)

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 A Closer Look

The FMEA Form

Identify failure modes Determine and assess

Identify causes of the Prioritize
and their effects actions
failure modes
and controls
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 Specialized
Uses

Types of FMEAs
• Design
– Analyzes product design before release to
production, with a focus on product function
– Analyzes systems and subsystems in early
concept and design stages
• Process
– Used to analyze manufacturing and assembly
processes after they are implemented

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 Process Steps

FMEA Procedure
1. For each process input (start with high value inputs),
determine the ways in which the input can go wrong (failure
mode)
2. For each failure mode, determine effects
– Select a severity level for each effect

3. Identify potential causes of each failure mode

– Select an occurrence level for each cause

4. List current controls for each cause

– Select a detection level for each cause

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 Process Steps

FMEA Procedure (Cont.)

5. Calculate the Risk Priority Number (RPN)
6. Develop recommended actions, assign responsible persons,
and take actions
– Give priority to high RPNs
– MUST look at severities rated a 10

7. Assign the predicted severity, occurrence, and detection

levels and compare RPNs

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 Information
Flow

FMEA Inputs and Outputs

Inputs Outputs
C&E Matrix List of actions to prevent
Process Map causes or detect failure
Process History modes
Procedures
Knowledge FMEA History of actions taken
Experience

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 Analyzing

Severity, Occurrence, Failure &

Effects

and Detection
• Severity
– Importance of the effect on customer requirements
• Occurrence
– Frequency with which a given cause occurs and
creates failure modes (obtain from past data if possible)
• Detection
– The ability of the current control scheme to detect
(then prevent) a given cause (may be difficult to
estimate early in process operations).
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 Assigning
Rating
Weights
Rating Scales
• There are a wide variety of scoring “anchors”, both
quantitative or qualitative
• Two types of scales are 1-5 or 1-10
• The 1-5 scale makes it easier for the teams to decide
on scores
• The 1-10 scale may allow for better precision in
estimates and a wide variation in scores (most
common)

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 Assigning
Rating
Weights
Rating Scales
• Severity
1 = Not Severe, 10 = Very Severe
• Occurrence
1 = Not Likely, 10 = Very Likely
• Detection
1 = Easy to Detect, 10 = Not easy to Detect

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 Calculating a
Composite
Score
Risk Priority Number (RPN)
RPN is the product of the severity, occurrence, and
detection scores.
Severity X Occurrence X Detection = RPN

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 Key Points

Summary
• An FMEA:
– Identifies the ways in which a product or process can fail
– Estimates the risk associated with specific causes
– Prioritizes the actions that should be taken to reduce risk
• FMEA is a team tool
• There are two different types of FMEAs:
– Design
– Process
• Inputs to the FMEA include several other Process tools such as C&E
Matrix and Process Map.

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 Practices

Group Project & Review

• Charter
• Critical Success Factors
• Risk
• Scope
• Timeline
• Contingency plan
• Projection
• …
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