Global Ocean Monitoring:

Recent Evolution, Current Status,

and Predictions

Prepared by
Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA
July 12, 2021

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
This
This project,
project, to
to deliver
deliver real-time
real-time ocean
ocean monitoring
monitoring products,
products, isis implemented
implemented
by
by CPC
CPC in
in cooperation
cooperation with
with NOAA’s
NOAA’s Global
Global Ocean
Ocean Monitoring
Monitoring and
and Observing
Observing Program
Program (GOMO)
(GOMO)
Outline

• Overview
• Recent highlights
– Pacific/Arctic Ocean
– Indian Ocean
– Atlantic Ocean
• Global SST Anomaly Predictions
• Special Topics
– Will a double-dip La Niña occur?
– Atlantic Niño and its impact on ENSO
2
Overview

3
Global Oceans

4
Global SST Anomaly (oC) and Anomaly Tendency

-- SSTAs
SSTAs were
were small
small in
in the
the tropical
tropical
Pacific
Pacific and
and Indian
Indian Oceans.
Oceans.
-- Positive
Positive SSTAs
SSTAs were
were present
present in
in
mid-latitude
mid-latitude ofof north
north Pacific.
Pacific.
-- Positive
Positive SSTAs
SSTAs were
were present
present in
in
the
the equatorial
equatorial Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean
Ocean and
and
along
along the
the African
African coast.
coast.

-- Positive
Positive SSTA
SSTA tendencies
tendencies were
were
present
present inin the
the eastern
eastern equatorial
equatorial
Pacific
Pacific and
and Atlantic
Atlantic Oceans.
Oceans.
-- AA north-south
north-south dipole
dipole pattern
pattern of
of
SSTA
SSTA tendency
tendency waswas observed
observed in
in
the
the north
north Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean.
Ocean.

5
 Longitude-Depth Temperature Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency in 2oS-2oN

-- Positive
Positive subsurface
subsurface ocean
ocean
anomalies
anomalies were
were present
present
along
along the
the thermocline
thermocline in in the
the
equatorial
equatorial Pacific.
Pacific.
-- Positive
Positive anomalies
anomalies
continued
continued in in equatorial
equatorial
Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean,
Ocean, associated
associated
with
with the
the potential
potential for
for
development
development of of an
an Atlantic
Atlantic
Niño.
Niño.
-- Compared
Compared withwith May,
May,
dipole
dipole pattern
pattern atat 50-200m
50-200m
was
was reversed
reversed in in the
the Indian
Indian
Ocean
Ocean inin Jun
Jun 2021
2021 ..

-- Negative
Negative (positive)
(positive)
temperature
temperature anomaly
anomaly
tendency
tendency was
was present
present along
along
central-eastern
central-eastern (far
(far eastern)
eastern)
thermocline
thermocline inin the
the equatorial
equatorial
Pacific.
Pacific.

Equatorial depth-longitude section of ocean temperature anomalies (top) and anomaly tendency (bottom). Data is from the 6
NCEP's global ocean data assimilation system. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
 Global SSH and HC300 Anomaly & Anomaly Tendency

- The SSHA pattern was overall consistent with the HC300A pattern, but with a significant trend component in SSHA.
- Positive anomalies were present in the equatorial Atlantic.
- Negative tendencies were observed in the central equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans, consistent with the
subsurface ocean temperature anomaly tendency (previous slide). 7
Tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO
Conditions

8
 Evolution of Pacific Niño SST Indices

-- All
All negative
negative Niño
Niño indices
indices weakened
weakened in
in Jun
Jun 2021,
2021,
with Niño3.4 = -0.2 C
oo
with Niño3.4 = -0.2 C . .
-- Compared
Compared with
with Jun
Jun 2020,
2020, the
the central
central and
and eastern
eastern
equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific was
was warmer
warmer inin Jun
Jun 2021.
2021.
-- The
The indices
indices may
may have
have slight
slight differences
differences ifif based
based on
on
different
different SST
SST products.
products.

Niño region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies ( oC) for the specified 9
region. Data are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
 Tropical Pacific: SSTA, SSTA Trend, OLR, heat flux, uv925 & uv200 anomalies

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (top-left), anomaly tendency (top-right), Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies (middle-left),
sum of net surface short- and long-wave radiation, latent and sensible heat flux anomalies (middle-right; positive means heat into the ocean),
925-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-left), 200-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-right). SST are derived
from the NCEP OI SST analysis, OLR from the NOAA 18 AVHRR IR window channel measurements by NESDIS, winds and surface radiation and
10
heat fluxes from the NCEP CDAS. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
Latest 3-month Tropical Pacific SST , OLR, & uv925 anomalies

11
 Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Salinity(SSS) Anomaly

-- Positive
Positive (negative)
(negative) SSS
SSS anomaly
anomaly
presented
presented east
east (west
(west )) of
of 140E
140E
during
during 2010,
2010, 2011,
2011, 2016,2017,
2016,2017, 2020
2020
La
La Nina
Nina events.
events.

-- Positive
Positive SSS
SSS anomaly
anomaly was
was present
present
around
around 140E-170W
140E-170W in
in Jun
Jun 2021.
2021.

Sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies are derived from Blended Analysis of Surface Salinity (BASS) V0.Z (Xie et al. 2014).
2014 Since June 2015, the BASS
SSS is from in situ, SMOS and SMAP; before June 2015,The BASS SSS is from in situ, SMOS and Aquarius. Data is available at 12
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BAS.
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BAS.
 Equatorial Pacific SST (oC), D20 (m ), zonal wind stress (dyn/cm 2 ) Anomalies

-- Positive
Positive SSTA
SSTA emerged
emerged inin the
the eastern
eastern Pacific
Pacific in
in Jun
Jun 2021,
2021, which
which was
was associated
associated with
with the
the subsurface
subsurface warming
warming
at
at the
the far
far eastern
eastern Pacific.
Pacific.
-- Surface
Surface zonal
zonal wind
wind stress
stress was
was dominated
dominated by
by the
the meso-scale
meso-scale activity.
activity.
13
 Evolution of Equatorial Pacific Surface Zonal Current Anomaly (cm/s)

-- Anomalous
Anomalous eastward
eastward currents
currents emerged
emerged in
in the
the western
western &
& central
central equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific in
in both
both OSCAR
OSCAR and
and GODAS
GODAS in
in
Feb-Apr
Feb-Apr 2021.
2021.
-- Both
Both anomalous
anomalous eastward
eastward and
and westward
westward currents
currents were
were observed
observed in
in Jun
Jun 2021..
2021.. 14
 Daily Equatorial Zonal Wind stress anomaly and D20 Tendency

15
Data source: NCEP GODAS
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature Pentad Mean Anomaly

TAO GODAS
-- Positive
Positive ocean
ocean
temperature
temperature anomalies
anomalies
propagated
propagated eastward
eastward along
along
the
the thermocline,
thermocline, consistent
consistent
with
with daily
daily D20
D20 tendency
tendency
evolution
evolution (previous
(previous slide).
slide).
-- Negative
Negative subsurface
subsurface
temperature
temperature anomaly
anomaly were
were
present
present in
in the
the far
far eastern
eastern
Pacific.
Pacific.
-- The
The features
features of
of the
the ocean
ocean
temperature
temperature anomalies
anomalies
were
were similar
similar between
between
GODAS
GODAS (model
(model based)
based) and
and
TAO
TAO (objective)
(objective) analysis.
analysis.

16
North Pacific & Arctic Oceans

17
 Latest 3-month North Pacific SST, OLR & uv925 anomalies

18
Data source: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1
Weekly SST anomaly and MHWs in the North Pacific

-- MHWs
MHWs were
were
observed
observed inin the
the N.E
N.E
Pacific
Pacific during
during late
late May
May
to
to early
early June.
June.

-- Strong
Strong SSTA
SSTA
expanded
expanded toward
toward toto
the
the N.W
N.W coast
coast of
of North
North
America
America in
in recent
recent
weeks.
weeks.

19
Two Oceanic PDO indices

SST-based PDO (Wen et al. 2014: GRL)

-- The
The negative
negative phase
phase of
of PDO
PDO
has
has persisted
persisted since
since Jan
Jan 2020
2020
with
with PDOI
PDOI == -1.5
-1.5 in
in Jun
Jun 2021.
2021.
-- Negative
Negative H300-based
H300-based PDO
PDO
index has persisted 57
index has persisted 57
months
months since
since Nov
Nov 2016,
2016, with
with
HPDO = - 2.1 in Jun 2021.
HPDO = - 2.1 in Jun 2021.
-- SST-based
SST-based PDO
PDO index
index has
has
H300-based PDO (Arun and Wen 2016:Mon.Wea.Rev.) considerable
considerable variability both
variability both
on
on seasonal and decadal time
seasonal and decadal time
scales.
scales.
-- H300-based
H300-based PDO
PDO index
index
highlights the slower
highlights the slower
variability
variability and
and encapsulates
encapsulates
an
an integrated view of
integrated view of
temperature
temperature variability in
variability in the
the
upper ocean.
upper ocean.

SST-based PDO is defined as the 1st EOF of monthly ERSST v3b in the North Pacific for the period 1900-1993. PDO index is the
standardized projection of the monthly ERSSTv5 SST anomalies onto the 1st EOF pattern. H300-based Pacific Decadal
Oscillation is defined as the projection of monthly mean H300 anomalies from NCEP GODAS onto their first EOF vector in the
North Pacific. PDO indices are downloadable from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml. 20
 Arctic Sea Ice; NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html)

time series

-- The
The monthly
monthly average
average extent
extent for
for Jun
Jun 2021
2021 was
was 10.71
10.71 million
million square
square kilometers
kilometers and
and itit ranks
ranks
the
the sixth
sixth lowest
lowest in
in the
the satellite
satellite record.
record.
21
 NCEP/CPC Arctic Sea Ice Extent Forecasts

For
For ICs
ICs in
in Jun
Jun 2021,
2021,
NCEP/CPC
NCEP/CPC predicted
predicted
aa well
well below-normal
below-normal
sea
sea ice
ice extent
extent during
during
summer
summer and
and
autumn
autumn 2021
2021..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/seaice_seasonal/index.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/seaice_seasonal/index.html 22
Indian Ocean

23
 Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices

-- Negative
Negative Indian
Indian Ocean
Ocean dipole
dipole
index
index strengthened
strengthened in in Jun
Jun 2021,
2021,
with
with IOD
IOD == -0.63°
-0.63° C.
C.

Indian Ocean Dipole region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies (OC) for the SETIO [90ºE-
110ºE, 10ºS-0] and WTIO [50ºE-70ºE, 10ºS-10ºN] regions, and Dipole Mode Index, defined as differences between WTIO and SETIO. Data are 24
derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
 Tropical Indian: SSTA, SSTA Trend, OLR, heat flux uv925-mb & uv200 anomalies

-- Westerly
Westerly wind
wind
anomaly
anomaly
prevailed
prevailed over
over
the
the southern
southern
eastern
eastern Indian
Indian
Ocean,
Ocean, favoring
favoring
further
further warming
warming
in
in the
the eastern
eastern
Indian
Indian Ocean.
Ocean.

SSTAs (top-left), SSTA tendency (top-right), OLR anomalies (middle-left), sum of net surface short- and long-wave radiation, latent and sensible heat
flux anomalies (middle-right), 925-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-left), 200-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude
(bottom-right). SST are derived from the OI SST analysis, OLR from the NOAA 18 AVHRR IR window channel measurements by NESDIS, winds and
25
surface radiation and heat fluxes from the NCEP CDAS. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
Tropical and North Atlantic Ocean

26
 Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices

-- Negative
Negative meridional
meridional dipole
dipole index
index continued
continued inin
Jun 2021.
Jun 2021.
-- ATL
ATL 33 index
index in
in Jun
Jun 2021
2021 hit
hit aa historical
historical record
record
since
since 1982,
1982, with
with ATL3ATL3 == 1.3°C.
1.3°C.

Tropical Atlantic Variability region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies ( OC) for the TNA
[60OW-30OW, 5ºN-20ON], TSA [30OW-10OE, 20OS-0] and ATL3 [20OW-0, 2.5OS-2.5ON] regions, and Meridional Gradient Index, defined as differences 27
between TNA and TSA. Data are derived from the NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
 Atlantic Niño and associated rainfall variability

- Atlantic Niño (Niña) is defined as the

3-month averaged SSTAs exceeding
0.5°C (-0.5 °C) in the ATL 3 region
[3°S- 3°N, 20°W-0°] for at least two
consecutive overlapping seasons.
- Atlantic Niño usually develops in
boreal spring(MAM), peaks in
summer (JJA) and dissipates in fall.
- Some Atlantic Niño events are
responsible for a failure of the west
African summer monsoon and
increased frequency of flooding in the
west African countries near the Gulf
of Guinea and in the northeastern
South American.
- Atlantic Niño and associated rainfall
variability display large diversity.

Vallès-Casanova, I., Lee, S.-K., Foltz, G. R. & Pelegrí, J. L. On the spatiotemporal diversity of Atlantic Niño and
associated rainfall variability over West Africa and South America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087108 (2020) 28
Latest 3-month Tropical Atlantic SST , OLR & uv925 and D20 anomalies

Bjerknes feedback

29
 Historical Atlantic Niño & Niña Events

2021 : MAM:-0.1 AMJ: 0.5 MJ: 0.95

ATL Niño: ATL Niña:

Aug 1984-Sep 1984 May 1982 - Dec 1982
Jul 1987 -Aug 1987 Mar 1983 -Jul 1983
May 1988 - Aug 1988 Oct 1986 - Feb 1987
May 1995 – Jun 1995 Dec 1989 – Feb 1990
May 1996 – Jul 1996 Oct 1991 – Jan 1992
Dec 1997 – Mar,1998 Apr 1992 – Dec 1992
May 1999 – Aug 1999 Feb1993 – Apr 1993
May 2008 - Jul 2008 Nov1996 - Jul 1997
Oct 2010 - Nov 2010 Nov 2001 - Jan 2002
Nov 2016 – Jan 2017 Apr 2004 – Jun 2004
Nov 2019 – Feb 2020 Apr 2005 – Jul 2005
May 2021 - ?? Dec 2011 – Apr 2012
30
 Tropical Atlantic Ocean: SSTA, SSTA Tend, TCHP, OLR, UV200, UV200-UV850, Heat Flux Anomalies

Top Row: SSTA (left; OI SST), SSTA tendency (central), Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential anomaly (right; GODAS).
Middle row: OLR (left; NOAA 18 AVHRR IR ), UV200 (central; NCEP CDAS), UV200-UV850 (right; NCEP CDAS) anomalies.
Bottom row: SW+LW (left), LH+SH (central), Relative humidity at 700 hPa (right; NCEP CDAS) anomalies.
31
Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

-- NOAA
NOAA 2021
2021 Atlantic
Atlantic Hurricane
Hurricane Season
Season Outlook:
Outlook: above-normal
above-normal Atlantic
Atlantic hurricane
hurricane season
season with
with aa
60%
60% chance
chance of of an
an above-normal
above-normal season,
season, aa 30%
30% chance
chance of of aa near-normal
near-normal season,
season, and
and aa 10%
10%
chance
chance of
of aa below-normal
below-normal season.
season.
-- However,
However, experts do not anticipate
experts do not anticipate the
the historic
historic level
level of
of storm
storm activity
activity seen
seen in
in 2020.
2020.
(https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season)
(https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season)
32
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Activities

-- By
By Jul
Jul 10
10 2021
2021,, five
five tropical
tropical
storms
storms formed
formed with
with one
one
developing
developing into
into hurricane.
hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic
_hurricane_season

33
 NAO and SST Anomaly in North Atlantic

-- NAO
NAO switched
switched toto aa positive
positive phase
phase in in
Jun
Jun 2021
2021 with
with NAOI=
NAOI= 1.1.1.1.
-- The
The prolonged positive SSTAs
prolonged positive SSTAs in
in the
the
middle
middle latitudes were evident, due to
latitudes were evident, due to
the
the domination
domination of of the
the positive
positive phase
phase
of
of NAO
NAO during
during the
the last
last 5-6
5-6 years.
years.

Monthly standardized NAO index (top) derived from monthly standardized 500-mb height anomalies obtained from the NCEP CDAS in 20 ON-90ON
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). Time-Latitude section of SST anomalies averaged between 80ºW and 20ºW (bottom). SST are derived from the
34
NCEP OI SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
ENSO and Global SST
Predictions

35
IRI/CPC Niño3.4 Forecast

-- ENSO
ENSO Alert
Alert System
System Status:
Status: LaLa
Niña
Niña Watch
Watch Issued
Issued on
on 88 Jul
Jul 2021
2021
-- Synopsis:
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral
ENSO-neutral is
is favored
favored
through
through thethe Northern
Northern Hemisphere
Hemisphere
summer
summer and and into
into the
the fall
fall (51%
(51% chance
chance
for
for the
the August-October
August-October season),
season), with
with
La
La Niña
Niña potentially
potentially emerging
emerging during
during
the
the September-November
September-November season season and
and
last
last through
through the
the 2021-22
2021-22 winter
winter (66%
(66%
chance
chance during
during November-January).
November-January).
36
 CFSv2 Niño3.4 SST Predictions

-- Latest
Latest CFSv2
CFSv2
predictions
predictions call
call
for
for aa moderate
moderate
La
La Niña
Niña in
in the
the
northern
northern
hemisphere
hemisphere
2021/22
2021/22 winter.
winter.

CFS Niño3.4 SST prediction from the latest 9 initial months. Displayed are 40 forecast members (brown) made four times per
day initialized from the last 10 days of the initial month (labelled as IC=MonthYear) as well as ensemble mean (blue) and
37
observations (black). Anomalies were computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period means.
 Individual Model Niño3.4 Forecasts

EC:
EC: IC=
IC= 01
01 July,
July, 2021
2021 JMA:
JMA: Updated
Updated 10
10 June,
June, 2021
2021

BOM: UKMO:
UKMO: Updated
Updated 11
11 June,
June, 2021
2021
BOM: Updated
Updated 03
03 July,
July, 2021
2021

38
NMME forecasts with the latest 4-month initial conditions

39
 Oceanic ENSO Precursors: WWV & CTP

WWV

CTP

Warm water volume (WWV) is defined as an average of D20 anomaly across the equatorial Pacific (120o E – 80o W, 5o S-5o N)
(Meinen and McPhaden 2000). Central tropical Pacific (CTP) index is calculated as the averaged D20 anomaly in the central
tropical Pacific (160o W-110o W, 10o S-10o N) (Wen et al. 2014). The monthly D20 data is obtained from the Real-time Ocean
Reanalysis Intercomparison Project( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora93_body.html ). 40
 DJF Nino34 predictions based on ENSO precursors

-- Both
Both WWV
WWV
and
and CTP
CTP in
in June
June
predict
predict ENSO
ENSO
neutral
neutral
condition
condition in
in
DJF
DJF 2022.
2022.

Prediction models are constructed using leave-one-year-out cross validation over the full period by iteratively recomputing
the coefficients with the target prediction year removed. For details Wen et al. (2021) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-
41
20-0648.1
 Impact of equatorial Atlantic SST on ENSO

-- Equatorial
Equatorial Atlantic
Atlantic warming
warming
(cooling)
(cooling) induces
induces enhanced
enhanced
(weakened)
(weakened) trade
trade winds
winds in
in
Indo-Pacific
Indo-Pacific regions
regions and
and leads
leads
to
to subsequent
subsequent tropical
tropical Pacific
Pacific
cooling
cooling (warming)
(warming) 77 month
month
later.
later.

Chikamoto, Y., Johnson, Z.F., Wang, S.Y.S., McPhaden, M.J. and Mochizuki, T., 2020. El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Evolution Modulated by Atlantic Forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125(8), p.e2020JC016318. 42
 CFSv2 ATL3 predictions

Impact of CFSR cold bias in tropical

Atlantic on ENSO predictions

Before reset

-- Large
Large cold
cold bias
bias in
in CFSR
CFSR in
in March
March 2016
2016
(ocean
(ocean ICIC for
for CFSv2)
CFSv2) led
led to
to aa false
false El
El Nina
Nina
prediction,
prediction, providing
providing evidence
evidence for for the
the
impact
impact ofof tropical
tropical Atlantic
Atlantic SST
SST onon ENSO.
ENSO. After reset
-- Latest
Latest CFSv2
CFSv2 predict
predict ATL3
ATL3 will
will reach
reach
1.5°C
1.5°C in
in July,
July, aa historical
historical high
high on
on record.
record.
43
 CFSv2 Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST Predictions

-- Latest
Latest CFSv2
CFSv2
predictions
predictions call
call
for
for above
above
normal
normal SSTs
SSTs inin
the
the tropical
tropical N.
N.
Atlantic
Atlantic in
in 2021
2021
hurricane
hurricane
season.
season.
-- There
There are
are
warm
warm biases
biases
with
with ICs
ICs in
in Dec
Dec
2020-Feb
2020-Feb 2021.
2021.

CFS Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST predictions from the latest 9 initial months. Displayed are 40 forecast members (brown) made four times per
day initialized from the last 10 days of the initial month (labelled as IC=MonthYear) as well as ensemble mean (blue) and observations (black).
Anomalies were computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period means. TNA is the SST anomaly averaged in the region of [60oW-30oW, 5oN-
44
20oN].
 CFSv2 DMI SST Predictions

-- Latest
Latest
CFSv2
CFSv2
predicts
predicts aa
negative
negative
phase
phase ofof
IOD
IOD in
in
2021.
2021.

CFS Dipole Model Index (DMI) SST predictions from the latest 9 initial months. Displayed are 40 forecast members (brown) made four times per day
initialized from the last 10 days of the initial month (labelled as IC=MonthYear) as well as ensemble mean (blue) and observations (black). The
hindcast climatology for 1981-2006 was removed, and replaced by corresponding observation climatology for the same period. Anomalies were
45
computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period means.
 CFSv2 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index Predictions

-- CFSv2
CFSv2
predicts
predicts aa
negative
negative
phase
phase of
of PDO
PDO
in
in the
the coming
coming
seasons.
seasons.

CFS Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index predictions from the latest 9 initial months. Displayed are 40 forecast members (brown) made four
times per day initialized from the last 10 days of the initial month (labelled as IC=MonthYear) as well as ensemble mean (blue) and observations
(black). Anomalies were computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period means. PDO is the first EOF of monthly ERSSTv3b anomaly in the
46
region of [110oE-100oW, 20oN-60oN]. CFS PDO index is the standardized projection of CFS SST forecast anomalies onto the PDO EOF pattern.
 Acknowledgements

 Drs. Arun Kumar, Zeng-Zhen Hu, and Jieshun Zhu:

reviewed PPT, and provided insightful suggestions and
comments

 Drs. Li Ren and Pingping Xie provided the

BASS/CMORPH/CFSR EVAP package

 Dr. Wanqiu Wang provided the sea ice forecasts and

maintained the CFSv2 forecast archive
Please
Please send
send your
your comments
comments and
and suggestions
suggestions to:
to:
Arun.Kumar@noaa.gov
Arun.Kumar@noaa.gov
Caihong.Wen@noaa.gov
Caihong.Wen@noaa.gov
Jieshun.Zhu@noaa.gov
Jieshun.Zhu@noaa.gov
Zeng-Zhen.Hu@noaa.gov
Zeng-Zhen.Hu@noaa.gov
47
 Data Sources (climatology is for 1991-2020)


 Weekly
Weekly Optimal
Optimal Interpolation
Interpolation SST
SST (OI
(OI SST)
SST) version
version 22 (Reynolds
(Reynolds et
et al.
al. 2002)
2002)

 Extended
Extended Reconstructed
Reconstructed SST
SST (ERSST)
(ERSST) v5 v5 (Huang
(Huang et et al.
al. 2017)
2017)

 Blended
Blended Analysis
Analysis of
of Surface
Surface Salinity
Salinity (BASS)
(BASS) (Xie
(Xie et
et al.
al. 2014)
2014)

 CMORPH
CMORPH precipitation
precipitation (Xie
(Xie et
et al.
al. 2017)
2017)

 CFSR
CFSR evaporation
evaporation adjusted
adjusted to
to OAFlux
OAFlux (Xie
(Xie and
and Ren
Ren 2018)
2018)

 NCEP
NCEP CDASCDAS winds,
winds, surface
surface radiation
radiation andand heat
heat fluxes
fluxes (Kalnay
(Kalnay et
et al.
al. 1996)
1996)

 NESDIS
NESDIS Outgoing
Outgoing Long-wave
Long-wave Radiation
Radiation (Liebmann
(Liebmann and and Smith
Smith 1996)
1996)

 NCEP’s
NCEP’s GODAS
GODAS temperature,
temperature, heat
heat content,
content, currents
currents (Behringer
(Behringer and
and Xue
Xue
2004)
2004)

 Aviso
Aviso altimetry
altimetry sea
sea surface
surface height
height from
from CMEMS
CMEMS

 Ocean
Ocean Surface
Surface Current
Current Analyses
Analyses –– Realtime
Realtime (OSCAR)
(OSCAR)

 In
In situ
situ data
data objective
objective analyses
analyses (IPRC,
(IPRC, Scripps,
Scripps, EN4.2.1,
EN4.2.1, PMELPMEL TAO)
TAO)

 Operational
Operational Ocean
Ocean Reanalysis
Reanalysis Intercomparison
Intercomparison Project
Project
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora93_body.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora93_body.html

48
Backup Slides

49
Evolution of Pacific Niño SST Indices

-- Relative
Relative Niño3.4
Niño3.4 index
index isis now
now included
included in in
ENSO
ENSO monitoring,
monitoring, whichwhich isis defined
defined as as the
the
conventional
conventional Niño3.4Niño3.4 index
index minus
minus the the SSTA
SSTA
averaged
averaged in in the
the whole
whole tropics
tropics (0 (0 -360
oo
-360 ,, 20
oo
20ooS-
S-
20
20 N),
oo
N), in
in order
order toto remove
remove thethe global
global
warming
warming signal.
signal. Also,
Also, toto have
have thethe same
same
variability
variability as as the
the conventional
conventional Niño3.4
Niño3.4
index,
index, thethe relative
relative Niño3.4
Niño3.4 index
index isis
renormalized
renormalized (van (van Oldenborgh
Oldenborgh et et al.
al. 2021:
2021:
ERL, 10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed).
ERL, 10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed).
Relative
Relative Niño3.4
Niño3.4 data
data updated
updated monthly
monthly at:
at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
RONI.ascii.txt
RONI.ascii.txt

50
 Oceanic Kelvin Wave (OKW) Index

-- Two
Two weak
weak downwelling
downwelling Kelvin
Kelvin waves
waves were
were initiated
initiated in
in Feb
Feb and
and Apr
Apr 2021,
2021, respectively,
respectively, consisting
consisting
with
with the
the weakening
weakening of
of La
La Niña.
Niña.
(OKW
(OKW index
index is
is defined
defined as
as standardized
standardized projections
projections of
of total
total anomalies
anomalies onto
onto the
the 14
14 patterns
patterns of
of Extended
Extended EOF1
EOF1 of
of equatorial
equatorial
temperature anomalies (Seo and Xue , GRL, 2005).)
temperature anomalies (Seo and Xue , GRL, 2005).)
51
 North America Western Coastal Upwelling

-- Both
Both coastal
coastal
anomalous
anomalous upwelling
upwelling
and
and downwelling
downwelling were
were
present
present in
in Jun
Jun 2021.
2021.

(top) Total and (bottom) anomalous upwelling indices at the 15 standard locations for the western coast of North America. derived from the
vertical velocity of the NCEP’s GODAS and are calculated as integrated vertical volume transport at 50-meter depth from each location to its
nearest coast point (m3/s/100m coastline). Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period pentad means.
- Area below (above) black line indicates climatological upwelling (downwelling) season. 52
- Climatologically upwelling season progresses from March to July along the west coast of North America from 36ºN to 57ºN.
 Global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS): Anomaly for June 2021

New
New Update:
Update: The The NCEI
NCEI SST
SST data
data used
used inin the
the quality
quality
control
control procedure
procedure has has been
been updated
updated toto version
version 2.1
2.1
since
since May
May 2020;
2020;
Positive
Positive SSSSSS anomaly
anomaly still
still continues
continues and and likely
likely
strengthens
strengthens in in the
the western
western equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific Ocean
Ocean
and
and SPCZ
SPCZ region.
region. Negative
Negative SSSSSS anomaly
anomaly appears
appears in
in
the
the eastern
eastern equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific Ocean.
Ocean. Negative
Negative SSS
SSS
anomaly
anomaly showsshows in in the
the northeast
northeast Pacific
Pacific Ocean.
Ocean.
Positive
Positive SSS
SSS anomaly
anomaly continues
continues between
between 20°N20°N and
and
40°N
40°N in
in the
the North
North Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean.
Ocean. While,
While, negative
negative SSS
SSS
anomaly
anomaly along along thethe Equatorial
Equatorial Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean
Ocean
continues
continues and and strengthens
strengthens which
which is
is likely
likely due
due toto
increased
increased precipitation
precipitation

SSS
SSS :: Blended
Blended Analysis
Analysis of
of Surface
Surface Salinity
Salinity (BASS)
(BASS) V0.Z
V0.Z
(a
(a CPC-NESDIS/NODC-NESDIS/STAR
CPC-NESDIS/NODC-NESDIS/STAR joint joint effort)
effort)
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BASS
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BASS
Precipitation:
Precipitation: CMORPH
CMORPH adjusted
adjusted satellite
satellite precipitation
precipitation
estimates
estimates
Evaporation:
Evaporation: Adjusted
Adjusted CFS
CFS Reanalysis
Reanalysis
53
 Global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS): Tendency for June 2021

Compared
Compared withwith last
last month,
month, SSS
SSS
increases
increases in in the the western
western
equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific Ocean
Ocean andand
SPCZ
SPCZ region.
region. While, While, SSSSSS
decreases
decreases in in the the eastern
eastern
equatorial
equatorial Pacific
Pacific Ocean.
Ocean. SSS
SSS
also
also decreases
decreases in in the
the equatorial
equatorial
Atlantic
Atlantic Ocean
Ocean region.
region. SSS
SSS
increases
increases in
in the
the Indian
Indian Ocean
Ocean inin
most
most areas
areas north
north of of equator
equator
which
which isis likely
likely caused
caused by by
reduced
reduced precipitation.
precipitation.

54
 Pentad SSS Anomaly Evolution over Equatorial Pacific

Figure
Figure caption:
caption:
Hovemoller
Hovemoller diagram
diagram for for
equatorial
equatorial (5 (5°°S-5
S-5°°N)
N) 5-5-
day
day mean
mean SSS,
SSS, SST
SST and
and
precipitation
precipitation anomalies.
anomalies.
The
The climatology
climatology for for SSS
SSS
isis Levitus
Levitus 1994
1994
climatology.
climatology. The The SST
SST
data
data used
used here
here isis the
the
OISST
OISST V2 V2 AVHRR
AVHRR only only
daily
daily dataset
dataset with
with its
its
climatology
climatology being
being
calculated
calculated from
from 1985
1985 to to
2010.
2010. TheThe precipitation
precipitation
data
data used
used here
here isis the
the
adjusted
adjusted CMORPH
CMORPH
dataset
dataset with
with its
its
climatology
climatology being
being
calculated
calculated from
from 1999
1999 to to
2013.
2013.

55