DEMOGRAPHIC

TRANSITION MODEL

PRESENTED BY
ARPITA KAUSHIK
 FRAMEWORK:-

• WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY
• INTRODUCTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
• STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
• IMPORTANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
• CRITICISM
 WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY

• DEMOGRAPHY IS THE STATISTICAL STUDY OF HUMAN POPULATIONS.

• DEMOGRAPHY EXAMINES THE SIZE, STRUCTURE, AND MOVEMENTS OF
POPULATIONS OVER SPACE AND TIME.
 INTRODUCTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
• THERE ARE DIFFERENT STAGES IN POPULATION GROWTH. THESE STAGES ARE CALLED
POPULATION GROWTH TYPES OR DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.
• THIS THEORY IS BASED ON THE DATA OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF EUROPE.
• THE MODEL OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION WAS FIRST USED BY WARREN THOMPSON
IN 1929,LATER BYADOLFO LAUNDRY IN 1934 AND BY FRANK NOTESTEIN IN 1945
• THE TERM ‘DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ‘ WAS FIRST USED BY NOTESTEIN.
• IT IS BASICALLY BASED ON THE EXPERIENCES OF WESTERN EUROPE, THROUGH WHICH
THE PROCESS OF REACHING EACH COUNTRY IN THE STATE OF HIGH BIRTH RATE AND
DEATH RATE IS EXPLAINED. BY DEVELOPING FROM A TRADITIONAL AGRO-BASED
ECONOMY,A SOCIETY HAS CHANGED INTO AN INDUSTRIAL AND URBAN SOCIETY.
STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
MODEL
 STAGE-1:PRE TRANSITION
HIGH BIRTH RATE AND HIGH DEATH RATE= LOW OVERALL
POPULATION

• MAIN FEATURE OF A SOCIETY IS HIGH BIRTH RATE AND HIGH DEATH RATE. THEREFORE, THE RATE OF POPULATION
GROWTH REMAINS LOW BUT VARIABLE.
• THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF A TRADITIONAL AGRARIAN SOCIETY.
• DUE TO THE CONTROL OF VARIOUS DISEASES AND IMPROVEMENT IN THE STANDARD OF LIVING, THERE IS A RAPID
DECLINE IN THE DEATH RATE, WHEREAS THE FACTORS CAUSING THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH RATE DEVELOP SLOWLY.
• THE FIRST STAGE OCCURS IN COUNTRIES WHERE AGRICULTURE IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF INCOME AND RURAL
ECONOMTHE FIRST BIRTH RATE RANGES FROM 46 TO 48 PER THOUSAND. SIMILARLY, DUE TO THE HIGH MORTALITY
RATE, THIS STAGE IS ALSO CALLED THE HIGH STATIOARY STAGE.Y GOES. THERE IS ALMOST A LACK OF SECONDARY
ACTIVITIES AND THERE IS NO TERTIARY SECTOR, SO THE PER CAPITA INCOME IS LOW. JOINT FAMILY SYSTEM IS
FOUND.
• THE FIRST STAGE BIRTH RATE RANGES FROM 46 TO 48 PER THOUSAND. SIMILARLY, DUE TO THE HIGH MORTALITY
RATE, THIS STAGE IS ALSO CALLED THE HIGH STATIOARY STAGE.
 STAGE-2: TRANSITION PERIOD

• IN THIS STAGE, GRADUALLY THE ECONOMY MOVES TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT. ALONG WITH
AGRICULTURE, PROGRESS ALSO TAKES PLACE IN THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRY, TRANSPORT AND
URBANIZATION. PROGRESS IN EDUCATION, INCREASE IN INCOME, FOOD, CLOTHING, HOUSING,
HEALTH CARE ALSO PROGRESSES, AS A RESULT OF WHICH WITH A SLOW DECLINE IN THE BIRTH
RATE, THERE IS A DECREASE IN THE DEATH RATE, DUE TO WHICH THE SITUATION OF POPULATION
EXPLOSION ARISES.
• THUS THE SECOND STAGE OF THE GENITAL INFECTION IS OF GREAT IMPORTANCE. THIS
CONDITION IS ALSO RELEVANT. THIS CAN BE DONE IN THE FOLLOWING THREE SUB-STAGES
(I) THERE IS A FALL IN THE RATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE INITIAL TRANSITION PERIOD. BECAUSE
INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND DISEASES ARE CONTROLLED.
(2) MIDDLE TRANSITION PERIOD – WHEN THE MORTALITY RATE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AND
STARTS TO DECLINE. YET THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO..
(3)DELAYED TRANSITION PERIOD – IN THIS STAGE, THE DEATH RATE AND BIRTH RATE START
 STAGE-3: POST-TRANSITION PERIOD

• WITH THE FALL IN THE BIRTH RATE, THE THIRD STAGE BEGINS , DUE TO WHICH
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BIRTH RATE AND DEATH RATE DECREASES.
• IN THE END THE SOCIETY ATTAINS THE STAGE OF LOW BIRTH RATE AND LOW
DEATH RATE, RESULTING IN LOW POPULATION GROWTH RATE. IN THIS STAGE
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE STANDARD OF LIVING.
• DUE TO FAMILY PLANNING AND INCREASE IN THE AGE OF MARRIAGE, THE
REPRODUCTIVE AGE STARTS DECREASING AND CONSEQUENTLY THE BIRTH
RATE DECLINES.
• COUNTRIES LIKE INDIA, PAKISTAN ARE IN THIS STAGE.
STAGE -4: LOW STATIONARY STAGE

• IN THIS LAST STAGE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, BOTH BIRTH

AND DEATH RATES DECLINE APPRECIABLY. THE POPULATION IS
EITHER STABLE OR GROWS SLOWLY.
• THIS IS A STAGE OF FULL INDUSTRIALIZATION AND
URBANIZATION.
• THE EDUCATION LEVEL IS HIGH IN THIS STAGE
• COUNTRIES LIKE AUSTRALIA, NEWZEALAND,JAPAN ETC. ARE
ABOUT TO REACH THIS STAGE
 IMPORTANCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION MODEL
• .THE THEORY DOES PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE PORTRAYAL
OF THE WORLD’S DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY AT MACRO
LEVEL OF GENERALIZATION.
• THE TRANSITION MODEL DOES HELP IN UNDERSTANDING
THE TRANSITION PROCESS FOR ANY COUNTRY PROVIDED
THE SITUATIONAL CONTEXT IS PROPERLY UNDERSTOOD.
• THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS USED TO
FORECAST ECONOMIC GROWTH.
 CRITICISM OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
THEORY
• IN THIS THEORY, THE TIME PERIOD OF DIFFERENT STATES IS
NOT FIXED AS TO HOW LONG WHICH STATE WILL LAST.
• IT IS OKAY TO HAVE A HIGH BIRTH RATE IN THE FIRST STAGE,
BUT MANY TIMES THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE NATURAL
OUTBURST DEATH RATE. HENCE THE STABILITY IS NOT FIXED.
• IN THIS THEORY THERE IS NO RELATION BETWEEN THE STAGES
OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC
STAGES.
• 1) IN THIS THEORY, MOST OF THE SCHOLARS ANALYZE THE