Presentation On Pandemic Forecasting

SAMHAR-COVID19 HACKATHON
PRESENTATION
ON
PANDEMIC FORECASTING
TEAM MEMBERS:
VARUN (STUDENT)
KIRAN YADAV
TEAM NAME: PPDL RAMESH KUMAR YADAV
CONTENTS
➢ INTRODUCTION
➢ WHAT IS PANDEMIC FORECASTING
➢ ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SITUATION
➢ FORECASTING OF CONFIRMED CASES
➢ RESULT
➢ CONCLUSION
➢ SOLUTION
➢ REFERENCES AND SOURCES

INTRODUCTION
➢ Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease.
➢ Caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
➢ It was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province.
➢ Spread globally, resulting in an ongoing pandemic.
➢ As of 7 May 2020, more than 3.77 million cases have been reported across 187 countries and territories,
resulting in more than 264,000 deaths.
➢ More than 1.25 million people have recovered.
➢ On 30 January 2020 first case reported in India state Kerala.
➢ It is declared as an outbreak with Epidemic Diseases Act 1897.

CONT...
HOW COVID19 SPREADS?
➢ Primarily spread between people during close contact via small droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, and
talking.
➢ Droplets usually fall to the ground or onto surfaces rather than remaining in the air over long distances.
➢ People may also become infected by touching a contaminated surface and then touching their face.
CONT...
WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS?
➢ Include fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, and loss of smell and taste.
➢ While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia, multi-organ failure,
or cytokine storm.
➢ The time from exposure to onset of symptoms is typically around five days but may range from two to
fourteen days.
WHAT IS PANDEMIC FORECASTING
Combination of two words one is PANDEMIC and another is FORECASTING.
WHAT IS PANDEMIC?
➢ A global Epidemic.
➢ That spreads more than one people to another.
➢ An epidemic that spreads to more than one continent, “says Dan Epstein, a spokesman for the Pan American
Health Organization, a regional office of the World Health Organization”.
WHAT IS FORECASTING?
➢ A technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining
the direction of future trends.
➢ Determines the increase or decrease of the cases all over the world.
➢ Can also be used in Medical, Epidemic, Sales, Business and so on.
WHAT IS PANDEMIC FORECASTING
➢ An Epidemic diseases that spread globally which is forecasted that tells the increase or decrease
of spread globally.
➢ It gives us the prediction of trend of cases increased or decreased in future.
➢ It elaborate, how the cases are growing in coming day, months or in a year.
➢ It is used to take the accurate decision for future.
➢ Able to take action and do planning on time for future

ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SITUATION IN INDIA
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES: 54,085
TOTAL ACTIVE CASES: 36,667
TOTAL RECOVERED CASES: 15,611
TOTAL DEATH CASES: 1,803

GRAPHICALLY
GRAPHICALLY
GRAPHICALLY
GRAPHICALLY STATE WISE ANALYSIS
FORECASTING OF CONFIRMED CASES
➢ Now here we will Forecast the Confirmed cases in India for prediction.
➢ Also we will forecast for different states also and see their conditions according to the forecast.
➢ Forecast the daily confirmed cases in India and its States.
➢ Confidence Interval: Refers to the probability that a population parameter will fall between two set
values for a certain proportion of times.

DAILY CONFIRMED CASES FORECAST OF INDIA
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES FORECAST OF INDIA
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: MAHARASHTRA
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: GUJARAT
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: DELHI
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: MADHYA PRADESH
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: RAJASTHAN
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: TAMIL NADU
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: UTTAR PRADESH
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: ANDHRA PRADESH
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: PUNJAB
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: TELANGANA
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: WEST BENGAL
STATE WISE FORECAST OF DAILY CONFIRMED CASES: HARYANA
RESULT
➢ As we saw in the forecast in states and in overall India it is very clear to see that the cases and the growth
rate are increasing day by day so if it is not controlled on time or the right action should not be taken on time
it may cause very big problem for India.
➢ As a result we should be aware and break the chain of the covid19 and maintain hygiene and protect
yourself.
➢ Also the increasing of cases causes the bad impact on our country and we also see that big states like
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi are at High Risk.
➢ Due to more population of India it may be give bad impact due to which there is more chance of community
CONCLUSION
We can easily control the Epidemic occurs in India till the vaccine comes that will takes time but still we can
protect our self from covid19:
➢ Don’t be panic, always maintain the hygiene and wash hands or sanitize hands time to time.
➢ Always wear mask when go out if necessary.
➢ Never gather in crowd and keep distance from public and do not touch unwanted items or object around
you.
➢ This forecasting will be helpful to determine the future status such we can take right action on time.
➢ This forecasting will also help us what will be the situation will be in the future.
SOLUTION
➢ To fight this coronavirus infection, we will need to take a public health approach: a
quantitative, as well as qualitative, approach to fight an infection so new that we learn
something more about it every day.
➢ The government has taken steps to limit the spread already, by quickly sealing
international borders and ensuring physical distancing. This shows that there is an
openness to seeing COVID-19 not just as a medical problem but a public health problem.
This is heartening, to say the least.
SOLUTION
Four Steps that will Helps us To break the Chain of COVID19:
➢ Think about that the what is most vulnerable first.

➢ Let’s unlock every avenue we have for healthcare.
➢ Let’s leverage more ways to manage this disease, while we work on our wish list of
vaccine, medicines, more ventilators.
➢ Let’s put mathematical models to work here.
REFERENCES AND SOURCES
➢ http://www.covid19india.org
➢ https://www.mygov.in/covid-19/
➢ http://www.github,com
Thank You

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SAMHAR-COVID19 HACKATHON

➢ WHAT IS PANDEMIC FORECASTING

➢ ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SITUATION

➢ FORECASTING OF CONFIRMED CASES

➢ REFERENCES AND SOURCES

➢ Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease.

➢ Caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

➢ Spread globally, resulting in an ongoing pandemic.

resulting in more than 264,000 deaths.

➢ More than 1.25 million people have recovered.

➢ On 30 January 2020 first case reported in India state Kerala.

➢ It is declared as an outbreak with Epidemic Diseases Act 1897.

HOW COVID19 SPREADS?

WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS?

Combination of two words one is PANDEMIC and another is FORECASTING.

➢ It gives us the prediction of trend of cases increased or decreased in future.

➢ It is used to take the accurate decision for future.

➢ Able to take action and do planning on time for future

TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES: 54,085

TOTAL ACTIVE CASES: 36,667

TOTAL RECOVERED CASES: 15,611

TOTAL DEATH CASES: 1,803

➢ Forecast the daily confirmed cases in India and its States.

values for a certain proportion of times.

it may cause very big problem for India.

Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi are at High Risk.

protect our self from covid19:

➢ Always wear mask when go out if necessary.

➢ Think about that the what is most vulnerable first.

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