Meeting 2 Week 2

Probability

Firmanto Hadi & Dika Virginia

 • Mechanism that generate observations
that cannot be predict with certainty.
What is probability? Example?
• Such a random event cannot be predicted
with certainty occur in a long series of
trials  Remarkable stable Relative
Frequency. Example? Single toss of coin
• Events possessing the property 
random/stochastic event
Method of Assigning
Probability

a. Classical Method
b. Relative Frequency Method
Method of Assigning

Probability : Classical Method

All experimental outcomes are equally likely

Examples:
Examples:
a. Roll a die, 6 equally likely
b. Get audited by districts office,
outcomes
3.000 out of 3.000.000
Method of Assigning Probability : Relative Frequency

Method
a. Uses past data to predict future
b. Uses past data available to estimate the proportion of the time

Objective: Construct a frequency distribution

–Create an ungroup frequency distribution;
Pie Chart
–Create a grouped frequency distribution;
Histogram
 Frequency Distribution

• A Distribution is a way to describe the structure of a

particular data set or population
• A frequency distribution is a display of the value that
occur in a data set and how often of each value, or range
of values, occurs.
• Frequencies (f) ae the number of data values in the
categories of a frequency distribution
• A Class is a categorical of data in a frequency distribution

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 An ordered array is an ordered lists of the data
from largest to smallest or vice versa

A Probability distribution is a theoretical

distribution used to predict the probabilities of
Frequency particular data values occurring in a population

Distributions An un-grouped frequency dist is a frequency

distribution where each category or class
represents a single value

A grouped frequency dist is a frequency

distribution where the classes are ranges of
possible values

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 • For categorical
• Determine the level of categorical variable
• Count the number observed values in each
level

Freq Distribution: Example:

Ungrouped The eye colour of my research students are in
the following:
{blue, brown, brown, blue, brown, brown,
brown, green}
Colour Frequency (prob)

Blue 2 (2/8)
Brown 5 (5/8)
Green 1 (1/8)
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 typically between 5-20 classes; there are several methods to determine
Decide number the number of the class (bin)
of Class

Freq Distribution:
Grouped Decide Class
Typically natural divisions; another method is subtracting the highest and
the lowest value, then divide it with the number of class
width

the lower class limit is the smallest number in the class, and the upper
limit is the largest number in the class; yet judgement is still required.
Find the class
limit Then, determine the frequency of each class

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 Terminology
• Class width: the difference between the
lower limit or upper limit of two
consecutive classes of the frequency dist
• Lower class limit: the smallest number
belong to the particular class
• Upper class limit: the largest number
that can belong to a particular class

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Relative Frequency

The relative frequency is the fraction of percentage of the

data set that falls into a particular class,

where, 11

is the sample size;

is the frequency of the class
The Histogram

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Example

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Why the Relative Freq is important?

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A review of set notation
a. Complement
Name Hair Colour Eye Colour
Dina Brown Hazel
Sinta Black Blue
Vivi Black Brown
Dika Brown Hazel
Tiwi Black Brown
Sasa Blond Brown
b. Mutually Exclusive Tama Brown Brown
Besta Brown Hazel
Fafa Blond Blue
Andi Blond Green
c. Union ()
Name Hair Colour Eye Colour
Dina Brown Hazel
Sinta Black Blue
Vivi Black Brown
Dika Brown Hazel
Tiwi Black Brown
Sasa Blond Brown
d. Intersection () Tama Brown Brown
Besta Brown Hazel
Fafa Blond Blue
Andi Blond Green
Mutually Exclusive

Non-Mutually Exclusive
Basic Probability:
Random Experiment
 • A process that generates well-defined
outcomes
Terminology: Random
• On any single repetitioned trial of an
Experiment experimental outcomes can occur
• The experimental outcomes that occurs
on any trial is determined solely by
chance

Examples:
Experiments Outcomes
Toss a coin Head, Tail
Drive on bridge Stuck in traffic, not stuck
Roll Die 1,2,3,4,5,6,
Make Product Defect, not defect
Multi-Step Random Experiment

1 Experiment with more

than 1 step
Examples:

Not Multi-step experiment: Flip coin 1 time Experiments have OUTCOMES

Multi-Step Random Experiment:
a. Roll Dice 2 times
b. Flip coin 3 times
c. Drive across bridge 7 times
Sample Point = Experimental
Outcome
a. One of the possible experimental outcomes
b. Examples:

Experiment: Flip coin 2 time

•Sample point 1 = Head, Head
•Sample Point 2 = Head, Tail Sample Point = Experiment
•Sample Point 3 = Tail, Head Outcomes
•Sample Point 4 = Tail, Tail
Sample Space ()
a. List all possible experimental outcomes
b. Examples:

Experiment: Flip coin 1 time

•Sample point 1 = Head, Head
Sample Point =
•Sample Point 2 = Head, Tail
•Sample Point 2 = Tail, Head Experiment 𝑆
∈
•Sample Point 2 = Tail, Tail Outcomes
How do we calculate number of sample

points?
Counting for multi-step random Experiment

Total number of experimental

outcomes (Sample points) *…* Size of sample Space

= number of steps in experiment

= number of possible outcomes in step 1
= number of possible outcomes in step 2
= number of possible outcomes in the last step
Counting for multi-step random Experiment: If the number of possible outcomes is

the same each time

Total number of experimental
outcomes (Sample points) Size of sample Space

Examples: Examples:
a. Experiment : Flip a coin 3 times b. Experiment : Roll a die 2 times
=3 =2
= 2 (Head or tail) = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
= 2 (Head or tail) = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
= 2 (Head or tail)
So, total experiment = sample points
So, total experiment = sample points = experiment outcomes =
= experiment outcomes =
 Recall some Tools that reduce the effort and error associated with the
sample-point approach for finding the probability of an event

methods in math! include orderliness, a computer, and the mathematical theory of

counting: Combinatorial Analysis

Definition Formula Example

A Combination is a The number of combinations How many pairs can be made
gruping of outcomes in of ݊ things chosen ‫ ݎ‬at from a group of 6 people? (A
which the order does a time is found using pairs B = B pairs A)
not matter

Definition Formula Example

A Permutation is an The number of permutations 6 people are in contest.How
arrangement of of ݊ things chosen ‫ ݎ‬at many ways can 1st and 2nd
outcomes in which the a time is found using place be awarded?
order does matter
 Recall some
methods in math!
Event & Probability of an Event
Event
A collection of 1 or more sample points (Experimental outcomes)

Probability of Event
The probability of any event is equal to
the sum of probabilities of the sample points in the event

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Example 1: toss coin 3 times
List of Sample Probability of Success=
sample Toss 1 Toss 2 Toss 3
points sample point number of tails
1 H H H H,H,H 0,125 0
2 H H T H,H,T 0,125 1
3 H T H H,T,H 0,125 1
4 T H H T,H,H 0,125 1
5 T T H T,T,H 0,125 2
6 T H T T.H.T 0,125 2
7 H T T H,T,T 0,125 2
8 T T T T,T,T 0,125 3

Number of sample = Event = Get 2 tails in 3 flips = 3 sample points

met the requirement

So, p(get “2 tails” in 3 flips)= p(T,H,H)+P(T,H,T)

+P(H,T,T)=0,125+0,125+0,125 = 0,375
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Example 2: toss coin 3 times
List of Sample Probability of Success=
sample Toss 1 Toss 2 Toss 3
points sample point number of tails
1 H H H H,H,H 0,125 0
2 H H T H,H,T 0,125 1
3 H T H H,T,H 0,125 1
4 T H H T,H,H 0,125 1
5 T T H T,T,H 0,125 2
6 T H T T.H.T 0,125 2
7 H T T H,T,T 0,125 2
8 T T T T,T,T 0,125 3

Number of sample = Event = Get 2 tails and more in 3 flips = 4

sample points met the requirement

So, p(get “2 or more tails” in 3 flips)= p(T,H,H)+P(T,H,T)

+P(H,T,T)+p(T,T,T)=0,125+0,125+0,125+0,125 = 0,5
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Example 3: toss coin 3 times
List of Sample Probability of Success=
sample Toss 1 Toss 2 Toss 3
points sample point number of tails
1 H H H H,H,H 0,125 0
2 H H T H,H,T 0,125 1
3 H T H H,T,H 0,125 1
4 T H H T,H,H 0,125 1
5 T T H T,T,H 0,125 2
6 T H T T.H.T 0,125 2
7 H T T H,T,T 0,125 2
8 T T T T,T,T 0,125 3

Number of sample = Event = Get 3 tails in 3 flips = 1 sample points

met the requirement

So, p(get “3 tails” in 3 flips)= p(T,T,T)=0,125

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Example 4: toss 2 die

Number of sample = Event = Get 7

So, p(get 7)= 1/6

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To sum up…

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Probability
experimental outcomes
1. ∀𝑖 (sample points)
the probability of sample
points-i

2. or + + … +

So,
Exercise
Consider the problem of selecting two applicants for a job out of a
group of five and imagine that the applicants vary in competence, 1
being the best, 2 second best, and so on, for 3, 4, and 5. These
ratings are of course unknown to the employer. Define two events
A and B as:

A: The employer selects the best and one of the two poorest
applicants (applicants 1 and 4 or 1 and 5).
B: The employer selects at least one of the two best.

Find the probabilities of these events.

Solution…
The steps are as follows:
1. The experiment involves randomly selecting two applicants out of five. Denote the selection of applicants 3
and 5 by
2. The ten simple events, with denoting the selection of applicants and , are

3. A random selection of two out of five gives each pair an equal chance for selection. Hence, we will assign
each sample point the probability 1/10. That is:

4. Checking the sample points, we see that occurs whenever , , , , occurs. Hence, these sample points are
included in
Exercise
A balanced coin is tossed three times. Calculate the probability that exactly two
of the three tosses result in heads.
Solution…
The five steps of the sample-point method are as follows:
1. The experiment consists of observing the outcomes (heads or tails) for each of
three tosses of a coin. A simple event for this experiment can be symbolized by a
three-letter sequence of H’s and T’s, representing heads and tails, respectively.
The first letter in the sequence represents the observation on the first coin. The
second letter represents the observation on the second coin, and so on.
2. The eight simple events in are

3. Because the coin is balanced, we would expect the simple events to be equally likely; that is:
Solution…
The five steps of the sample-point method are as follows:

4. The event of interest, , is the event that exactly two of the tosses result in heads. An
examination of the sample points will verify that:

,}

5. Finally,
Conditional Probability and
Independent of Events
Conditional
Probability
a. A probability of an event given that another
event already occurred
b. After the first event has occurred, the “sample
space has changed”
c. Notation
means “probability A given that B has already
occurred”
Conditional
Probability
Example
1. Probability of pulling a queen from a deck
of cards (without replacement) affects the
probability of pulling the next card.
Event Q1 = pull queen from 52 cards deck
Event Q2= pull 2nd queen AFTER 1 queen
pulled
Conditional
Probability

The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted

by p(B|A), is defined by:

, In which
Conditional Probability: Case
1
Suppose that our sample space S is the population of adult in a small town who
have completed the requirement for a college degree. We shall categorize them
according to gender and employment status.

One of these individuals s to be selected at random for a tour throughout the

country to publicise the advantages of establishing in the town. We shall be
concerned of a man chosen and the one chosen is employed
Conditional Probability: Case
2
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D)=0.83; the
probability that it arrives on time is P(A)=0.82; and the probability that it departs and
arrives on time is P(D ∩ A)=0.78. Find the probability that a plane 64 Chapter 2
Probability :
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
(c) the probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on time.
Independent
Event
a. We know in previous example, that
b. 2 Cards are drawn
defined as:
A: the first card is an ace,
B: the second card is a spade.
Since the first card is replaced, our sample space for
both the first and the second draw consists of 52 cards,
containing 4 aces and 13 spades.

13 1 =
𝑃 ( 𝐵| 𝐴 )= =
52 4
When = )  A and B are said to be Independent Event
 Independent Event: Definition
• The definition of conditional probability enables us to revise the
probability P(A) originally assigned to A when we are subsequently
informed that another event B has occurred; the new probability of A is
P(A | B).

• In our examples, it was frequently the case that

P(A | B) differed from the unconditional probability P(A), indicating that
the information “B has occurred” resulted in a change in the chance of A
occurring.

• Often the chance that A will occur or has occurred is not affected by
knowledge that B has occurred, so that
P(A | B) = P(A).
Independent Event:
Definition

For the card drawing experiment, = )=1/4 and

= )=1/13
 Independent Event: Definition
• However, using the definition of conditional probability and the
multiplication rule,

• P(B | A) = =

• The right-hand side of Equation (2.7) is P(B) if and only if P(A | B) = P(A)
(independence), so the equality in the definition implies the other
equality (and vice versa).

• It is also straightforward to show that if A and B are independent, then so

are the following pairs of events:
(1) A and B, (2) A and B, and (3) A and B.
Example 2.32
• Consider a gas station with six pumps numbered
1, 2, . . . , 6, and let Ei denote the simple event that a randomly selected customer
uses pump i (i = 1, . . . ,6).

• Suppose that
P(E1) = P(E6) = .10,
P(E2) = P(E5) = .15,
P(E3) = P(E4) = .25

• Define events A, B, C by

A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 2, 3}, C = {2, 3, 4, 5}.

Example 2.32

• We then have P(A) = .50, P(A | B) = .30, and P(A | C) = .50. That is,
events A and B are dependent, whereas events
A and C are independent.

• Intuitively, A and C are independent because the relative division

of probability among even- and odd-numbered pumps is the
same among pumps 2, 3, 4, 5 as it is among all six pumps.
Product Rule or Multiplicative
Rule
Probability of an Event: The
event-composition Method
The Law of Probability and the
Bayes' Rule
Numerical Events and Random
Variables
1. Experiment  outcomes (denoted by variable Y)
2. Y : A variable to be measured in an experiment; the value
is vary depends on the outcome Random Variable
Thank You

Next Lesson: Independence, Product Rule, and

Bayes’s Theorem
Mathematical Expectation
Exercise

Calculate the Random Variable’s mean value

Exercise

1. Construct the distribution table for

2. Calculate the Random Variable’s mean value
Exercise

1. Find
2. Calculate the Expected Value
Exercise
Consider that there are some languages spoken by Indonesia School Children. Define to be
The number of languages in which a randomly chosen Indonesian child attending school
can hold an everyday conversation. Assume that the probability function of , ,
is as shown in the following table:

1. What is the mean of ?

2. Find the standard deviation of
3. What are the units of the mean and standard deviation?
Exercise
Consider the following four discrete distributions

1. Confirm that each graph represents a probability function.

2. Guess the value of the mean of each corresponding random variable.
3. Calculate the value of the mean in each case.
4. Guess the order of the variances, from largest to smallest.
5. Find the variance and standard deviation in each case.