Adama Science and Technology University

School of Civil and Architectural Engineering

CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT

Instructor:
 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Example : Draw the logic network and perform the CPM calculations for the
schedule shown next.

Duration IPA Activity

5 - A
8 A B
6 A C
9 B D
6 B,C E
3 C F
1 D,E,F G
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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Forward Pass Calculations

In mathematical terms, the ES for activity j is as follows :
ESj =max( EFi )
Where (EFi) represents the EF for all preceding activities.
Likewise, the EF time for activity j is as follows :
EF j= ESj + Dur j
Where Dur j is the duration of activity j
ES early start
EF early finish

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]
Forward Pass Calculations
Solution
5,13 13,22
B D
8 9
0,5 13,19 22,23
A
E G
5
6 1

5,11 11,14
C F
6 3

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Backward Pass Calculations

: In mathematical terms, late finish LF for activity j is as follows
LFj =min(LSk
.Where (LSk) represents the late start date for all succeeding activities
: Likewise, the LS time for activity j (LS j) is as follows
LS j= LFj - Dur j

Where Dur j is the duration of activity

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Solution Backward Pass Calculations

5,13 13,22
B D
0,5 8 9
5,13 13,19 13,22 22,23
A G
E
5 1
6
0,5
5,11 16,22 11,14 22,23
C F
6 3
10,16 19,22

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Types of Float
There are several types of float. The simplest and most important type of float
is Total Float (TF).
Total float (TF): The maximum amount of time an activity can be delayed
from its early start without delaying the entire project.
TF = LS – ES OR TF = LF - EF OR TF = LF - Dur - ES

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Free Float: may be defined as the maximum amount of time an activity can
be delayed without delaying the early start of the succeeding activities
FF= min(ES of successor) – EF

 Note : We must always realize that FF ≤ TF

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

In the previous example we can find the free float and total float for each
activity as the following :
Activity C’s free float, FF = 11 - 11 = 0 days
Activity C’s total float, TF =16 - 11= 5 days …… and so on.

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

FF TF LF LS EF ES Duration Activity

0 0 5 0 5 0 5 A
0 0 13 5 13 5 8 B
0 5 16 10 11 5 6 C
0 0 22 13 22 13 9 D
3 3 22 16 19 13 6 E
8 8 22 19 14 11 3 F
0 0 23 22 23 22 1 G

A, B, D and G are critical activities [Because, their TF is Zero]

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Solution Backward Pass Calculations

5,13 13,22
B D
0,5 8 9
5,13 13,19 13,22 22,23
A FF of E =3
G
E
5 1
6 FF of F=8
0,5
5,11 16,22 11,14 22,23
FF of C=0
C F
6 3
10,16 19,22

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]
Interfering float: may be defined as the maximum amount of time an
activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project but causing delay
to the succeeding activities.
Int. F = TF – FF
IF FF TF Activity

0 0 0 A
0 0 0 B
5 0 5 C
0 0 0 D
0 3 3 E
0 8 8 F
0 0 0 G
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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Solution
5,13 13,22
B D
0,5 8 9
5,13 13,19 13,22 22,23
A G
E
5 1
6
0,5
5,11 16,22 11,14 22,23
C F
6 IF=5 3
10,16 19,22

01/22/2023 13
 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Independent float (Ind. F): we may define it as the maximum amount of time
an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of the succeeding
activities and without being affected by the allowable delay of the preceding
activities
Independent Float= Min ES of successor- Max LF of Predecessor- Dur

Ind. FF = 22– 16– 3=3

Note: make sure that Ind. F ≤ FF

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]

Solution Backward Pass Calculations

5,13 13,22
B D
0,5 8 9
5,13 13,19 13,22 22,23
A
E Ind F=22-13-6=3 G
5 1
6
0,5
5,11 16,22 11,14 22,23
C F
Ind F=22-16-3=3
6 IndF=11-5-6=0 3
10,16 19,22

01/22/2023 15
Example 2

ASTU 16
ASTU 17
ASTU 18
01/22/2023 19
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Introduction
In some situations, estimating activity duration becomes a difficult task due to
ambiguity inherited in and the risks associated with some work.
Thus, the duration of an activity is estimated as a range of time values
rather than being a single value.
This section deals with the scheduling of the project under uncertain
activity duration.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Scheduling with Uncertain Durations
Using the probabilistic distribution of activity durations.
Duration of a particular activity is assumed to be a random variable that is
distributed in a particular fashion.
An activity duration might be assumed to be distributed as a normal or a beta
distributed random variable as shown in figure below.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Figure shows the probability or chance of experiencing a particular activity
duration based on a probabilistic distribution.

01/22/2023 22
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
The beta distribution is often used to characterize activity durations,
since it can have an absolute minimum and an absolute maximum of
possible duration times.
The normal distribution is a good approximation to the beta distribution in
the center of the distribution and is easy to work with, so it is often
used as an approximation.

01/22/2023 23
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
The most common formal approach to incorporate uncertainty in the
scheduling process is to apply the critical path scheduling process and
then analyze the results from a probabilistic perspective.
This process is usually referred to as the Program Evaluation and
Review Technique [PERT] method.
The critical path [determined] is then used to analyze the duration of the
project incorporating the uncertainty of the activity durations along the
critical path.

01/22/2023 24
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
The expected project duration is equal to the sum of the expected
durations of the activities along the critical path.
Assuming that activity durations are independent random variables,
the variance or variation in the duration of this critical path is
calculated as the sum of the variances along the critical path.
With the mean and variance of the identified critical path known, the
distribution of activity durations can also be computed.

01/22/2023 25
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
PERT introduces uncertainty into the estimates for activity and project
durations.
PERT is well suited for those situations where there is either insufficient
background information to specify accurately time and cost or where project
activities require research and development.
AON diagramming can be easily used alternatively AOA [original
development approach].
The method is based on the well-known “central limit theorem”.

01/22/2023 26
Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
The theorem states that:
… “Where a series of sequential independent activities lie on the critical
path of a network, the sum of the individual activity durations will be
distributed in approximately normal fashion, regardless of the distribution
of the individual activities themselves….
… The mean of the distribution of the sum of the activity durations will be
the sum of the means of the individual activities and its variance will be the
sum of the activities’ variances”.

01/22/2023
27
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Primary assumptions of PERT can be summarized as follows:
Any PERT path must have enough activities to make central limit
theorem valid.
The mean of the distribution of the path with the greatest duration,
from the initial node to a given node, is given by the maximum mean
of the duration distribution of the paths entering the node.
PERT critical path is longer enough than any other path in the network.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Six Steps PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the work breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the activities - decide which activities must
precede and which must follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Step Cont’d
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity
5. Compute the longest time path through the network – this is called the
critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Questions PERT & CPM Can Answer

1. When will the entire project be completed?

2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project?

3. Which are the noncritical activities?

4. What is the probability the project will be completed by a specific date?

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
5. Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of schedule?

6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the budget?

7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time?

8. If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is the way to

accomplish this at least cost?

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Variability in Activity Times
CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each activity and there is
no variability in activity times
PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to allow for
variability

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Variability in Activity Times: Three time estimates are required
Optimistic time (a): Estimate of the minimum time required for an
activity if exceptionally good luck is experienced. If everything goes
according to plan.
Most–likely or modal time (m) [Most realistic/probable estimate]:
Time required if the activity is repeated a number of times under
essentially the same conditions.

Pessimistic time (b) [Assuming very unfavorable conditions]: Estimate

of the maximum time required if unusually bad luck is experienced.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
These three time estimates become the framework on which the probability
distribution curve for the activity is erected.
Many authors argue that beta distribution is mostly fit construction
activities.
The three times are thought to be easier for managers to estimate
subjectively.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Using the three times estimates, the expected mean time (te) is derived using
equation below.
Then, te is used as the best available time approximation for the activity
in question.
The standard deviation (σ) is given by equation below,
The variance (ν) can be determined as ν = σ2.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Estimate follows beta distribution

Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times:
v = [(b – a)/6]2

Standard Deviation

01/22/2023 37
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
By adopting activity expected mean time, the critical path calculations
proceed as CPM.
Associated with each duration in PERT, however, is its standard
deviation or its variance.
The project duration is determined by summing up the activity expected
mean time along the critical path and thus will be an expected mean
duration.
Since the activities on the critical path are independent of each other,
central limit theory gives the variance of the project duration as the sum
of the individual variances of these critical path activities.
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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Once the expected mean time for project duration (TX) and its
standard deviation (σX) are determined, it is possible to calculate the
chance of meeting specific project duration (TS).
Then normal probability tables are used to determine such chance
using Equation below.

01/22/2023 39
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
The procedure for hand probability computations using PERT can be
summarized in the following steps:
1. Make the usual forward and backward pass computations based on a
single estimate (mean) for each activity.
2. Obtain estimates for a, m, and b for only critical activities. If necessary,
adjust the length of the critical path as dictated by the new te values based
on a, m, and b.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
3. Compute the variance for event x (νX) by summing the variances for
the critical activities leading to event x.
4. Compute Z and find the corresponding normal probability.

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Estimate follows beta distribution

Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Probability of
Variance
1 in 100ofoftimes:
Probability

Probability
< a occurring
v = [(b − a)/6]2 of 1 in 100 of
> b occurring

Activity
Time

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

Time (a) Time (m) Time (b)
01/22/2023 42
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
Computing [PERT]
Variance
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2

A 1 2 3 2
.11
B 2 3 4 3
.11
C 1 2 3 2
.11
D 2 4 6 4
.44
E 1 4 7 4
1.00
01/22/2023
F 1 2 9 3
43
1.78
 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Probability of Project Completion
Project variance is computed by summing the variances of critical activities

s2 =pProject variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]

Project variance
s2 =p.11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation

sp = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]

Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks

(Expected Completion Time)

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
What is the probability this project can be completed on or before the 16
week deadline?

due expected date

Z= date – of completion /sp

= (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of standard

deviations the due date lies from the mean

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
From Appendix I
.00 .01 .07 .08
.1 .50000 .50399 .52790 .53188
.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142

due .69497
.5 .69146 expected.71566
date .71904
Z = date− of completion /sp
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175

= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76

Where Z is the number of standard
= 0.57 deviations the due date lies from the mean

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]

0.57 Standard deviations

Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks

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 Project Evaluation and Review Techniques
[PERT]
Determining Project Completion Time

Probability of
0.99

Probability of
0.01

2.33 Standard Z
From Appendix I deviations
0 2.33
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PERT SEEM 3530 51
 Example: Shopping Mall
Renovation

Activity IP a m b
A: Prepare initial design - 1 3 5
B: Identify new potential clients - 4 5 12
C: Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 3 10
D: Prepare final design A 1 8 9
E: Obtain planning permission D 1 2 3
F: Obtain finance from bank E 1 3 5
G: Select contractor D 2 4 6
H: Construction G, F 10 17 18
I: Finalize tenant contracts B, C, E 6 13 14
J: Tenants move in I, H 1 2 3

PERT SEEM 3530 52

 Example: Issues to Address

1. Schedule the project.

2. What is the probability of completing the project in 36
weeks?

PERT SEEM 3530 53

 CPM with Expected Activity Times

I,12

B,6

J,2 End
1 E,2
C,4

F,3

A,3 D,7 G,4 H,16

PERT SEEM 3530 54

 Expected Activity Time and SD

Act a m b t 2 t
1 4 3  5
3
A 1 3 5 3 0.44 6
B 4 5 12 6 1.78 2

C 2 3 10 4 1.78 12 4  1.78

(
 )
2

D 1 8 9 7 1.78 6
E 1 2 3 2 0.11
F 1 3 5 3 0.44
G 2 4 6 4 0.44
H 10 17 18 16 1.78
I 6 13 14 12 1.78
J 1 2 3 2 0.11
PERT SEEM 3530 55
 Critical Path and Expected Time

1. Critical path: A-D-E-F-H-J.

2. Expected Completion time: 33 weeks

3. What is the probability to complete the

project within 36 weeks?

-- Use the critical path to assess the

probability

PERT SEEM 3530 56

 Probability Assessment
Expected project completion time:
Sum of the expected activity times
along the critical path. Used to obtain
 = 3+7+2+3+16+2 = 33 probability of project
completion

Variance of project-completion time

Sum of the variances along
the critical path.
2 = 0.44+1.78+0.11+0.44+1.78+0.11= 4.66
 = 2.15
PERT SEEM 3530 57
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