statistikis Sesavali

swavlebis miznebi

gansazRvreT da gamoiTvaleT maCveneblebi da

proporciebi (procentebi)
aRwereT, rogor gamoviyenoT maCveneblebi,
Tanafardobebi da proporciebi (procentebi)
aRwereT, rogor unda gamoixatos daavadebis
ganzomilebebi drois, adgilisa da adamianis
mixedviT
 sixSiris ganzomilebebi

ramdeni adamiania
daavadebuli daavadebuli?
mosaxleobis ra nawils
aReniSneba daavadeba?
Aara daavadebuli
mosaxleobis kidev ra nawilSi
SeiZleba ganviTardes
daavadeba?
Tanafardobebi, proporciebi (procentebi)
da maCveneblebi

sami ganzomileba gamoiyeneba daavadebis

SemTxvevebis dasakavSireblad im mosaxleobis sididesTan,
sadac mocemul SemTxvevebs hqonda adgili
Tanafardoba
proporcia (procenti)
maCvenebeli
 Tanafardoba

erTi ricxvi iyofa meore

ricxvze

araviTari specifikuri
damokidebuleba araa
aucilebeli mricxvelsa da
mniSvnels Soris
 Tanafardobis magaliTi

rogoria qalTa da mamakacTa Tanafardoba?

Tanafardobis magaliTi
rogoria qalTa da mamakacTa
Tanafardoba?

qalebis raodenoba
kacebis raodenoba

= 5 / 2 = 2.5 / 1
proporcia (procenti)
 ori ricxvis ganayofi
 mricxveli CarTulia mniSvnelSi
 Sefardeba yovelTvis meryeobs
0-dan 1-mde an 0 da 100 farglebSi
proporciis (procentis)
magaliTi
rogoria qalTa wili?
proporciis magaliTi
rogoria qalTa wili?
qalebis raodenoba
saerTo raodenoba

= 5/7 = 0.7 = 70%

 maCvenebeli

ori ricxvis ganayofi

dro yovelTvis Setanilia mniSvnelSi

zomavs, ramdenad swrafad

warmoiSoba movlena droSi
 maCveneblis magaliTi

mricxveli
movlenaTa raodenoba, romelsac akvirdebian mocemuli
drois ganmavlobaSi

mniSvneli
mosaxleoba, sadac am movlenas aqvs adgili
moicavs drois intervals
magaliTi: hepatitis axali SemTxvevebis
maCvenebeli A qalaqSi
200 SemTxveva/100,000 mosaxleoba/weli
 gamoTvlebis saxeebi

Tanafardoba ori ganyenebuli (daukavSirebuli) ricxvis ganayofi

proporcia ori dakavSirebuli ricxvis ganayofi; mricxveli mniSvnelis

(procenti) Semadgeneli nawilia

maCvenebeli ori dakavSirebuli ricxvis ganayofi; mricxveli mniSvnelis

Semadgeneli nawilia;
dro yovelTvis gaTvaliswinebulia mniSvnelSi
 maCvenebeli

Aaris mricxveli Setanili

mniSvnelSi?

diax ara

Aaris dro Setanili

mniSvnelSi?

diax ara

sazomi: maCvenebeli proporcia Tanafardoba

gazomvaTa sixSire aRsaweri movlenis saxeobis
mixedviT

mdgomareoba Tanafardobebi proporciebi maCveneblebi

avadoba riskis Tanafardoba atributuli proporcia incidentoba

(davadeba) (SedarebiTi riski) momentaluri prevalentoba adamiani-dro maCvenebeli
maCveneblebis Tanafardoba dazianebadoba periodis prevalentoba
Sansebis Tanafardoba meoradi dazianebadoba

sikvdilianoba gardacvaleba-daavadebis procentuli sikvdilianoba saerTo sikvdilianobis

(sikvdili) SemTxvevebis Tanafardoba daavadebis SemTxvevebis maCvenebeli
dedaTa sikvdilianobis fataluri gamosavlis mizez-specifikuri sikvdil.
maCvenebeli maCvenebeli maCvenebeli
procentuli sikvd. maCv. asak-specifikuri sikv. maCv.
postneonataluri sikvd. maCv. sqes-specifikuri sikvd. maCv.
rasa-specifikeri sikvd. maCv
asakis standartizirebuli
sikvdilianobis maCvenebeli
neonataluri sikvd. maCv.
axalSobilTa sikvd. maCv.
potenciuri sicocxlis
dakarguli wlebis maCv.
Sobadoba dabali wonis Tanafardoba saerTo Sobadobis maCv.
dabadebisas saerTo fertilobis maCv.
bunebrivi namatis saerTo
maCvenebeli
 Ddaavadebis sixSiris
kategoriebi
daavadebis sixSiris ori ZiriTadi kategoria
arsebobs:

incidentoba: axali daavadebis warmoSobis

sazomia
prevalentoba: arsebuli daavadebis (axali da
Zveli erTad) sazomia
 incidentoba
Ddaavadebis axali SemTxvevebis raodenoba drois
romelime periodis ganmavlobaSi

riskis qveS myofi mosaxleoba imave periodSi

incidentobaSi mniSvneli moicavs mxolod daavadebisagan

Tavisufal adamianebs (riskis qveS myof pirebs) da
gamoricxavs im adamianebs, romlebic adre daavadnen
an ver daavaddebian.
 incidentobis ZiriTadi
maxasiaTeblebi
zomavs daavadebis axal SemTxvevebs
(rogorc wesi, pirvelad aRmocenebuls)

axal SemTxvevebs zomavs im mosaxleobaSi, romelic

daavadebis “riskis” qveS imyofeba

incidentobaSi gaTvaliswinebulia drois specifikuri

monakveTi, romlis ganmavlobaSic mosaxleobas
akvirdebian, vidre misi wevrebi avad gaxdebian
 prevalentoba
daavadebis SemTxvevebis raodenoba drois erT
momentSi

Mmosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba

Mmosaxleobis wili, romelic daavadda drois erT

momentSi.

Pprevalentoba yovelTvis 0 da 1 an
0 da 100% farglebSia
 prevalentobis gavlena or sxvadasxva
mosaxleobaze, 1 ianvari, 2001

mo s axl eo ba 1 mo s axl eo ba 2

d i abet i 1-1-2001 1-1-2001

d i ax 250 250

ar a 750 750

sul 1 000 1 000

pr eval ent o ba 25% 25%

prevalentobis gavlena or sxvadasxva mosaxleobaze
pirveli ianvari, 1999 da 2001

mo s axl eo ba 1 mo s axl eo ba 2

d i abet i 1-1-1999 1-1-2001 1-1-1999 1-1-2001

d i ax 50 250 150 250

ar a 950 750 850 750

sul 1000 1 000 1000 1 000

pr eval ent o ba 5% 25% 15% 25%

 incidentobis da prevalentobis
Sedareba

incidentoba prevalentoba
axali SemTxvevebi an yvela SemTxveva drois
movlenebi drois
romelime periodis romelime
ganmavlobaSi momentSi/periodSi
sasargebloa daavadebis sasargebloa problemis
mizezobrivi faqtorebis, sididis gasarkvevad
daavadebis “riskis” (gasazomad) da
Sesaswavlad dagegmvisTvis
 prevalentoba da incidentoba
incidentoba

prevalentobis auzi

gamojanmrTeleba sikvdili
sikvdilianobis saerTo maCvenebeli

yvela mizeziT gamowveuli sikvdilis SemTxvevebis

raodenoba mosaxleobaSi

mTeli mosaxleobis raodenoba

 sikvdilianobis saerTo maCvenebeli infeqciuri
daavadebebis SemTxvevaSi,
aSS, 199-1996
suraTi 1. infeqciuri daavadebebis sikvdilianobis saerTo maCvenebeli* -
aSS, 1900-1996†
40 Stats aqvs
jandacvis
departamenti
gripis pandemia

Savi Wiris adamianidan

maCvenebeli

adamianze gadacemis
ukanaskneli SemTxveva
municipaluri penicilinis
wylebisTvis pirveli
qloris pirevli
uwyveti gamoyeneba
gamoyeneba SemoiRes vaqcinaciis Sesaxeb
aSS-Si solkis vaqcina kanonis miReba

*100,000 mosaxleze weliwadSi weli

MMWR July 30, 1999 / 48(29);621-629
Mmizez-specifikuri sikvdilianobis
maCvenebeli

mosaxleobaSi konkretuli (specifikuri) mizeziT

gamowveuli sikvdilis SemTxvevebis saerTo raodenoba

mTeli mosaxleobis raodenoba

 Ddaavadebis SemTxvevis fataluri
gamosavlis maCvenebeli (letaloba)
romelime daavadebiT gamowveuli sikvdilis SemTxvevebis
raodenoba

imave daavadebis diagnostirebuli SemTxvevebis

raodenoba

es aris daavadebis bunebrivi tendenciis sazomi

gamoiwvios sikvdili daavadebul adamianSi.
 praqtikuli SemTxveva
qveyanaSi, 6 milioni mosaxliT, wlis ganmavlobaSi, 1997 wlis
31 dekembramde, dafiqsirda 60,000 sikvdilis SemTxveva.
maT Soris 30,000 sikvdilis SemTxveva dafiqsirda 100,000
qoleriT daavadebul adamianTa Soris.

rogoria sikvdilianobis saerTo maCvenebeli 1997 wlisaTvis?

rogoria 1997 wels qoleriT gamowveuli mizez-specifikuri

sikvdilianobis maCvenebeli?

rogoria 1997 wels qoleriT gamowveuli letalobis

maCvenebeli?
 dazianebadoba

gansazRvrul drois periodSi mosaxleobaSi dafiqsirebuli

axali SemTxvevebis raodenoba

am periodis dasawyisSi riskis qveS myofi mosaxleoba

daimaxsovreT, es proporciaa da ara maCvenebeli!

 Ppraqtikuli magaliTi

saeklesio wveulebas 75 adamiani

eswreboda, ris Semdgom 46 damswreTagans
gastroenteriti ganuviTarda. gamoiTvaleT
gastroenteritiT dazianebadoba.
 Ppraqtikuli magaliTi
saeklesio wveulebas 75 adamiani eswreboda,
ris Semdgom 46 damswreTagans gastroenteriti
ganuviTarda. gamoiTvaleT gastroenteritiT
dazianebadoba.

Ddasnebovnebis maCvenebeli= 46/75 = 0.61 = 61%

 daavadebis sixSiris ganzomilebebis
gamoyeneba
rodesac xdeba statistikosis mier, magaliTad
prevalentobis an incidentobis aRwera an
interpretacia, saWiroa gaviTvaliswinoT
vin -- romeli mosaxleoba an qvejgufi
rodis -- ra drois momentSi an monakveTSi
sad -- geografiuli mdebareoba
 mosaxleobebis Sedareba
“adamianis” mixedviT

adamiani qalebi 15-29 wlamde da qalebi 30-44 gansxvavebuli

wlamde adamianebi

adgili epilandiaSi igive adgili

dro 2000 wels igive adgili
 mosaxleobebis Sedareba
“drois” mixedviT

adamiani yvela mcxovrebi igive pirebi

adgili epilandiis igive adgili

dro 1990 da 2000 wlebSi gansxvavebuli dro
 mosaxleobebis Sedareba
“adgilis” mixedviT

adamiani 15--44 wlamde qalebi igive pirebi

adgili epilandiaSi da demilandiaSi gansxvavebuli

adgilebi
dro 2000 wels igive dro
 madlobas vuxdiT
SesaniSnavi slaidebisTvis
Material modified from Epi course 503, Univ.
Michigan accessed 2/16/2002 at:
http://www.sph.umich.edu/epid503/
LecutreJan2201.ppt
TEPHINET CD Presentations

literatura
J. Last, A Dictionary of Epidemiology 4th ed
C Hennekens, Epidemiology in Medicine, 1987
B. Gertsman, Epidemiology Kept Simple, 1998
T. Timmreck, An Introduction to Epidemiology, 3rd ed,
2002
arCeviTi slaidebi
 incidentobis saxeebi
Oori saxis incidentoba arsebobs

kumulaciuri incidentoba:
mniSvnelSi CaTvlilia riskis qveS
myofi mosaxleoba drois garkveuli periodis
ganmavlobaSi

incidentobis simWidrove anu insidentobis

maCvenebeli: mniSvnelSi CaTvlilia
TiToeul pirze dakvirvebis dro
kumulaciuri incidentoba (CI)

daavadebis axali SemTxvevebis raodenoba drois

romelime periodSi

riskis qveS myofi mosaxleoba

kumulaciur incidentobaSi mniSvneli Seicavs mxolod

daavadebisgan Tavisufal adamianebs (riskis qveS myofebs) da
igi gamoricxavs im adamianebs, romlebic adre daavadnen an
ver daavaddebian
 kumulaciuri incidentoba

sazRvravs albaTobas (an risks), riTac romelime pirs daavadeba

ganuviTardeba drois garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi

gamoiyeneba ucvleli (dadgenili) mosaxleobisaTvis (riskis qveS

gulisxmobs mTel mosaxleobas kvlevis warmoebis mTeli periodis
ganmavlobaSi)

proporciis erT-erTi saxea

araviTari erTeulebi, meryeobs 0-1 an 0%-100% farglebSi

kumulaciuri incidentobis magaliTi

aTasi kacisgan Semdgar mosaxleobaSi

100 aRmoaCnda arsebuli romeliRac
daavadeba. erTi wlis Semdeg 1000-dan
es daavadeba 200 adamians
ganuviTarda.

ramdenia kumulaciuri
incidentoba?
kumulaciuri incidentobis magaliTi

aTasi kacisgan Semdgar mosaxleobaSi 100

aRmoaCnda arsebuli romeliRac daavadeba.
erTi wlis Semdeg 1000-dan es daavadeba
200 adamians ganuviTarda.

CI = 200 adamiani = 0.222

(1000-100) adamiani
 incidentobis saxeebi
Oori saxis incidentoba arsebobs
kumulaciuri incidentoba:
mniSvnelSi CaTvlilia riskis qveS
myofi mosaxleoba drois garkveuli
periodis ganmavlobaSi

incidentobis simWidrove anu

incidentobis maCvenebeli: mniSvnelSi
CaTvlilia TiToeul pirze dakvirvebis dro
incidentobis simWidrove

daavadebis axali SemTxvevebis raodenoba romelime

periodis ganmavlobaSi

adamiani-dro dakvirveba riskis qveS myof mosaxleobaSi

incidentobis simWidrove anu incidentobis maCvenebeli:

daavadebis axali SemTxvevebis aRmoceneba adamiani-
dro dakvirvebis periodSi
 incidentobis simWidrove

WeSmariti maCvenebelia
erTeulebia: 1/drois erTeulSi
meryeobs 0-dan usasrulobamde (e.i., Tu mosaxleobis
yvela wevri mokvda wamierad)
mricxveli kumulaciuri insidentobis mricxvelis
identuria; gansxvaveba – mniSvnelSi mdgomareobs
 Aadamiani dro
adamiani-dro izrdeba mxolod imaT Soris, vinc
daavadebis riskis qveS arian da roca maTze
dakvirveba warmoebs

adamiani-dros zrda wydeba, roca adamiani:

kvdeba
ikargeba dakvirvebis aridan
avaddeba
Aadamiani-dros gazomva

(daesva daavadebis diagnozi)

(mokvda)

(sxvagan wavida, daikarga dakvirvebis

aridan)

Ddakvirvebis periodi
Aadamiani-dros gazomva
adamiani-wlebis raodenoba izrdeba

(daesva daavadebis diagnozi) 4

(mokvda) 6

(sxvagan wavida, daikarga dakvirvebis

aridan) 3
10

Ddakvirvebis periodi
 incidentobs simWidrovis magaliTi

(daavadebis axali SemTxvevebis raodenoba)

(adamiani-dro riskis qveS myof mosaxleobaSi)

is = 1/30 adamiani-wlebi