Professional Documents
Culture Documents
STAGE 2 OF
POLICY PROCESS
TOPIC 4
/ POLICY CYCLE
POLICY FORECASTING
AND FORMULATION
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM
Content:
• Meaning of policy forecasting
• Purpose of forecasting
• Methods of forecasting and their advantages
and disadvantages
• Problems of forecasting
• Deciding and formulating type / category of
policy options
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 3
Meaning 4 Meaning
FORMS OF FORECASTING
• Projection.
• Prediction.
• Conjecture: A forecast based on informed or expert
judgments about future states of society.
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 6
WHY FORECASTING?
• Forecasts provide information about future changes in
policies and their consequences.
• Forecasting permits greater control through
understanding past policies and their
consequences, implying that the future is determined
by the past.
• Forecasting helps to shape the future in an active
manner, irrespective of what has happened in the past.
• Forecast provides insight into uncertainty
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 7
METHODS OF FORECASTING
Methods of making decision for future actions / directions
1. Consensus
Face to face meeting
Delphi Technique
2. Genius forecasting
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 9
Quantitative methods:
• Method that relies on hard data / statistics and statistical
model to predict and project future direction
• Example:
• Time series methods – using of past values data of variables to
predict future (to make decision for future)
• Exponential smoothing method – using statistical model:
New Forecast = a (most recent observation) + (1 - a) (last forecast)
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 10
• Objective
• Data is costly
• Need persons who are good with statistics /
mathematics – difficult to get & costly to pay for their
expertise
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 11
1. Consensus
Face to face meeting
Delphi Technique
2. Genius forecasting
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 13
Consensus Method
Consensus Techniques
2. Delphi Technique
GENIUS FORECASTING
Meaning:
• a subjective approach where intuition or gut
feeling are used in making decision about
future direction
• an unspecified set of processes used by
geniuses to arrive at statements about the
future.
• The processes need not be the same for any
two geniuses.
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 24
WHO IS GENIUS
• a single expert or expert panels with considerable
experience
• They forecasts the future based on knowledge,
intuition, insight and luck.
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 25
PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING
1. In-accuracy of info / data
2. Data is expensive & difficult to access
3. Limitation of forecasting methods and
techniques (quanti and quali)
4. Invalid experts opinion
5. Personal bias
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 31
End of Forecasting
• Once forecasting is done, administrator will
starts formulating / drafting the relevant policy
options / courses of action to resolve problem
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 32
POLICY FORMULATION
Meaning:
• Process of formulating (drafting) / developing
acceptable courses of action / options for the
selected policy agenda
Policy Formulation
Analysis + Authoriation
= Policy
Formulation
• Valid • Acceptable
• Implementable
• Efficient
• Drafting course of
action
Administrators
Politicians
Policy maker
Administrators
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 34
Analysis:
Which policy option to choose?
Analysis techniques:
Cost benefit analysis:
Refer Anderson (2011, pp. 292-297)
Inducement: either positive such as tax credit holiday or negative in nature such
as fines and charges impose for pollution.
Analysis is done
Authorization:
Which courses of action to accept?
• At this stage, assuming the course of action is able
to resolve problem and is cost effective, now the
political actor / policy maker will be deciding
on which policy recommendation / causes of
action proposed to be accepted / authorized.
• This is done through political process (first reading)
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 41
Reflection:
Who are actors involved in policy
formulation stage?
Two groups of actors:
• Analyist (policy analyist) / administrators
• Decision maker (policy maker)
ADS 514: Introduction to Public Policy, FSPPP, UiTM 43
END OF LECTURE
Thank You