Overview Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy

Green economy strategy

for
GCF implementing woredas

November2021
Adama
 Contents
I. Definitions of some terms
II. Causes of Climate change
III. Impacts of climate Change
IV. The Ethiopian Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy
 Weather
What is happening in the atmosphere at any given time ”

WEATHER IS: WEATHER is what’s

 Short term happening outside your
 Limited area window right now.
 Can change rapidly
 Difficult to predict
 Climate
“Average weather over longer time frames
CLIMATE IS:
 CLIMATE is the average of many years of
 Long term weather observation

 Wide area  Climate is the aggregated pattern of weather,

meaning averages, extremes, timing, spatial
 Seasonal changes
distribution of…
 Measured over long
spans of time
 Global Warming
Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average
temperature over the entire surface of the Earth
What is Climate Change
 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate
change broadly as "any change in climate over time whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity.
 However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) defines climate change as "a change of climate that is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the
global atmosphere, and that is in addition to natural climate variability over
comparable time periods."
 This UNFCCC definition thus introduces the concept of the difference
between the effect of human activities (climate change) and climatic effects
that would occur without such human interference (climate variability).
Climate is affected by a combination of factors from three
different systems:
 Solar System
 Earth System
 Earth’s Dynamics (how planet earth is changing at a macro
scale)
Solar System and Interactions

The earth’s solar system (our sun and

the associated planets, etc.) have an Air Ice
impact on the Earth’s System
composed of five components:
 Atmosphere: all air
 Hydrosphere: all water
 Biosphere: all living things Wate
 Geosphere: solid portion of the r Land
earth
 Cryosphere: frozen water part of the
earth Life
Dynamics of the Earth
 Atmospheric Circulation

 Ocean Circulation

 Land Surface Processes

 Vegetation

 Carbon Cycle

 Snow and Ice

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Earth’s Atmosphere
Layers of the Atmosphere
The atmosphere has four layers:
o Thermosphere where satellites
orbit Earth.
o Mesosphere where meteors burn
o Stratosphere which contains the
ozone layer
o Troposphere where we live;
 Cause of Climate Change

Natural Anthropogenic
Natural changes to the climate
 The leading cause of climate change is human activity

 Natural cycles can cause the climate to alternate between warming

and cooling.
 Milankovitch cycles – As Earth travels around the sun, its path and
the tilt of its axis can change slightly that affect the amount of
sunlight that falls on Earth.

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Natural changes to the climate……
 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – ENSO is a pattern of changing
water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. In an 'El Niño' year, the
global temperature warms up, and in a 'La Niña' year, it cools
down. These patterns can affect the global temperature for a short
amount of time (months or years) but cannot explain the
persistent warming that we see today.

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Natural changes to the climate…..
 Solar irradiance – Changing energy from the sun has affected the temperature
of Earth in the past. Any increase in solar energy would make the entire
atmosphere of Earth warm, but we can only see warming in the bottom layer.

 Volcanic eruptions – Volcanoes have a mixed effect on our climate. Eruptions

produce aerosol particles that cool Earth, but they also release carbon dioxide,
which warms it. Volcanoes produce 50 times less carbon dioxide than humans do,
so we know they are not the leading cause of global warming. On top of this,
cooling is the dominant effect of volcanic eruptions, not warming.
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Anthropogenic Causes of Greenhouse Gases
Global Warming – Green House Gases (GHG) Effects

16
Source: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report (AR) if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
FAQChange
1.3,(IPCC).
Figur
Major Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
 Carbon Dioxide (CO2): fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid
waste, trees and wood products, and also as a result of other
chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement).
 Methane (CH4): production and transport of coal, natural gas, and
oil; livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of
organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.

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Major Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
 Nitrous Oxide (N2O): agricultural and industrial activities, as well
as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.
╺ Fluorinated Gases: (Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and
sulfur hexafluoride): synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases from a
variety of industrial processes.
- Sometimes used as substitutes for (i.e., CFCs, HCFCs, and halons). Typically emitted in
smaller quantities, but because they are potent GHGs, they are sometimes referred to as
High Global Warming Potential gases (“High GWP gases”).

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Proportion of GHG in the atmosphere
 Water vapor (60%),
 Carbon dioxide (26%),
 Ground level Ozone (8%),
 Methane (4.4%),
 Nitrous oxide (1.5%), and
 other 0.1%.

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Impact of Climate Change
The Ethiopian Climate Resilient Green
Economy (CRGE) Strategy
Background
 Ethiopia is one of the fast growing economies in Africa and in the world
(IMF, 2010)
 It plans to achieve climate resilient and green middle- income economy
status by 2025 with zero net emission
 Following the conventional development path would among other
things result in:
 A sharp increase in GHG emissions from 150 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 400 Mt CO2e in
2030
 Unsustainable use of natural resources, which will make development unsustainable
 Critical challenge in attracting the investment needed to support the projected growth
 Put pressure on foreign currency reserves
Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025
GDP, billion USD

Agriculture
Industry
Services
147
Key transitions
~10% p.a. 29%
▪ Diminishing weight of
agriculture from 42% to
32%
29% of GDP
51
30 ▪ Migration from agriculture
39% jobs to services and
industry
2010 2015 GTP 2025 projected ▪ Reaching of middle-income
status before 2025
Population mln 79 89 11
(mid-year) 6
GDP/cap. 378 565 1.271
In USD

Source: GoE GTP; EDRI

Rationale for the CRGE Growth Trajectory
 Building a GE offers an opportunity to achieve economic development
targets sustainably
 If climate change mitigation and adaptation are seen as goals in conflict with
economic development, the risk being de-prioritized and under-funded
 Ethiopia could exchange GHG emissions abatement for climate finance to
fund some of the required investment
 The CRGE growth path would improve public health, through better air and
water quality, and would promote rural economic development by increasing
soil fertility and food security
 Many of the initiatives offer positive returns on investments, thus directly
promoting economic growth and creating additional jobs with high value-
added
The Ethiopian CRGE Objectives
 The CRGE has three complementary Objectives:
a. Fostering economic development and growth
b. Ensuring abatement and avoidance of future emissions, i.e. transition to a green
economy
c. Improving resilience to climate change

The CRGE Strategy Pillars

 Four pillars of the CRGE strategy :
1. Adoption of agriculture and land use efficiency measures
2. Protection and rehabilitation of forests for their economic and ecosystem
services including as carbon stocks
3. Deployment of renewable and clean power generation
4. Use of appropriate advanced technologies in industry, transport, and buildings
 The four pillars (cont)

Middle income country in 2025

Agriculture – Forestry – Protecting Power – Deploying Industry, transport
Improving crop and and growing forests as renewable and clean and buildings – Using
livestock practices carbon stocks power generation advanced technologies
▪Reduce defores- tation ▪Improve industry
by agricul- tural ▪Reduce demand for ▪Build renewable power
energy efficiency
intensification and fuelwood via efficient generation capacity and ▪Improve produc-
stoves switch-off fossil fuel tion processes
irrigation of degraded ▪Tighten fuel efficiency
land ▪Increase sequestration power generation
of cars
▪Use lower-emitting by afforestation/refor ▪Export renewable power ▪Construct electric
estation and forest to substitute for fossil rail network
techniques ▪Substitute fossil fuel
▪Improve animal management fuel power generation by biofuels
value chain abroad ▪Improve waste
management
▪Shift animal mix
▪Mechanize draft
power
Green economy strategy

Source: CRGE
 The CRGE Initiatives
The CRGE strategy has analyzed and screened about 60 initiatives out of
150 across seven sectors based on the following criteria:
Feasibility in local context- technical and institutional implement ability
Effect on GTP-potential to contribute to the GTP targets
Abetment Potential- GHG emission reduction compared to the BAU scenario
Cost Effectiveness- cost to reduce or avoid 1 tone of CO2 equivalent
The CRGE Initiatives (Cont’d)
 As part of the strategy, the government has selected four
initiatives for fast-track implementation:
 Hydropower potential;
 Advanced rural cooking technologies;
 Livestock value chain; and
 REDD+
 These initiatives have the best chances of promoting growth
immediately, capturing large abatement potentials, and attracting
climate finance for their implementation
 The CR Component of the Ethiopian CRGE Strategy
 A climate resilient economy will be protected from the negative
impacts of climate change and seek opportunities in a changing climate
 The CR builds on and incorporates the Ethiopia’s Program of Adaptation
to Climate Change (EPACC) and other relevant analysis in order to
make the economy withstand climate shocks
 The national CR strategy is due to be completed in March 2013 and
will cover the crucial sector of Agriculture
 The aims of the CR Strategy focuses on the key challenges faced by
Ethiopia
 CR STRATEGY OBJECTIVES
1.To identify the impact of current climate variability and project future
climate change on Ethiopia.
2.To identify and cost options to build CR and reduce the impact of
current climate variability and climate change.
3.To map the steps necessary to finance and implement efforts to
build climate resilience.
 Major CRS Challenges
 Our climate is varied and complex-availability of extreme climate
events and hazards
 The variety and complexity of our climate, the availability and
application of appropriate models is another challenge
 Rain-fed agricultural practices
 Lack of knowledge and skills to predict future events and hazards
 Financial constraints
 Lack of technological availability and affordability