P value, explained

through a story!
Table of contents

01 The story

02 P-value explained
01
The story
A story that incorporates p-value
P value is a very important concept in Joy then wondered if there was a correlation
statistics, and we can understand it through between that particular smell and Parkinson’s, so
observing the story of Joy Milne she wanted to test it out for herself

Joy one day noticed something incredibly And so began the experiment
strange, which was the fact that her husband
suddenly smelled a bit different

When this smell became a consistent occurrence,

he went to the doctor and was officially
diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease
A story that incorporates p-value
The experiment
Joy was given 12 shirts, and 6 of them were worn
by those with Parkinson’s disease. She needed to
smell every single shirt and determine if the shirt
was worn by someone with Parkinson’s or not
She ended up getting 11 out of the 12
classifications correct!
An important question we need to ask ourselves
now is, was Joy purely lucky in the fact that she
was able to get 11/12 right? Or was it because of
her super-smell ability?
This is where p-value comes into play
 02
P-value explained
A story that incorporates p-value
If we turn Joy’s story into a formal experiment, we would need to have 2 different hypotheses

Null hypothesis Alternate hypothesis

The null hypothesis is where we assume The alternate hypothesis is the exact opposite
that the phenomena that we are testing
● It would be that Joy’s super smell does
does not have an effect
have an effect and that there IS a
● It would be: Joy’s super smell has no correlation
effect on diagnosing patients with
Parkinson’s disease. There is no
relationship between these sets of data
A story that incorporates p-value
The p-value of the experiment is the probability of
getting a specific sample outcome strictly by random
chance

So if Joy’s ability had no correlation and that her guesses

were all random, what would the actual probability of that
be like if that were the case? Let’s find out

Suppose instead of shirts, we have 12 coins and we flip

each of them once. The p-value would be the portion of
times that we get 11 or more heads
A story that incorporates p-value
Here is a visual representation because it would be a lot of work The probability of success is
to calculate by hand 0.003 and this is known as the p-
value. Because it is less than
Experiment specifics Probability of success 0.05, we would reject the null
hypothesis and say that there IS a
Number correlation between Joy’s ability
12 Probability 0.003 and her accuracy in diagnosing
of flips
patients
I want Chance
11 0.3174% If the p-value was greater than
to have of success
0.05, we would fail to reject the
null hypothesis
Generated this from: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/coin-flip-probability
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 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

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