Probability

Probability Tuesday 28 November 2023
Lesson Starter
Objectives:
Developing How many words can you find relating to probability?

students will be
able to use words
to describe the
probability of
events.
1-4 Good
Secure students 5-8 Ace
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
9 - 12 Awesome
and percentages to 13 + Superstar!
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Probability, experiment, outcomes, relative frequency, fraction, decimal,
percentage, chance, likelihood
Lesson Impossible Likely Could

Objectives:
Developing Poor Even

students will be Would
able to use words
to describe the
More
probability of Definite Probable
events.
Good
Secure students
will be able to use
Unlikely May
fractions, decimals Chance Won’t
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
Never Certain Possible
events.
Excelling students
Might Improbable
will be able to use Less
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Task
Match the
labels to
the correct
place on
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
the
probability
scale
likely unlikely certain impossible even chance
100% chance no chance 75% chance 50% chance 25% chance

Think – Pair – Share
Use the words to describe the probabilities of the events below:
1. You will celebrate your 10th birthday tomorrow. Impossible?

2. Tomorrow you will have a cold. ?
3. It will rain tomorrow. Likely?
4. You will be struck by lightning tomorrow. Unlikely?
5. You will have something to drink tomorrow. Certain?
6. Sometime tomorrow you will watch television. Likely?
7. The next person you pass in the corridor will be male. Even chance?
8. The sun will rise tomorrow morning. Certain?
9. Rolling the number six on a dice on one throw. Unlikely?
10.You will still be alive when you are 100. Unlikely?
Lesson Sometimes words aren’t precise enough.

Objectives:
Developing We’re mathematicians! How can we be more accurate

students will be
able to use words when talking about probability?
to describe the
probability of
events.
We express probability as a number between 0 and 1.
Secure students The probability for an event which is IMPOSSIBLE is 0.

will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to The probability for an event which is CERTAIN is 1.
describe the
probability of
events. Probability can be expressed as a fraction, a decimal or a
Excelling students
percentage.
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson To calculate the probability, when all possible outcomes

Objectives: are equally likely, we can use the following formula:
Developing
students will be
able to use words
to describe the
probability of Example
events.
Calculate the probability of rolling an odd number on a fair
Secure students 6-sided die.
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to (odd)
odd numbers on a die 3
describe the ¿ ¿
probability of total numbers on a die 6
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson Example
Objectives:
If I had a bag containing an apple and a pear, what is the
Developing probability that I will pick out the pear?
students will be
able to use words
(pear) ¿
number of pears 𝟏
to describe the ¿
probability of tota l pieces of fruit 𝟐
events.
Secure students
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson Example
Objectives:
Developing A box contains 3 bags of salt and vinegar crisps, 4 bags of

students will be cheese and onion crisps and 2 bags of beef crisps. One of
able to use words
to describe the these bags of crisps is taken from the box at random.
probability of
events.
Work out the probability that the bag of crisps will be:
Secure students a) salt and vinegar
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to b) cheese and onion
describe the
probability of
events. c) beef
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Task – Copy and complete

Number of ways of Number of possible
Event Probability
achieving success outcomes
Throwing a 2
Throwing a 5
Throwing an odd
number
Throwing more than 3
Throwing less than 5
Throwing 2 or more
Throwing a 7
Throwing an even
number
Answers
Number of ways of Number of possible
Event Probability
achieving success outcomes
Throwing a 2
Throwing a 5
Throwing an odd
number
Throwing more than 3
Throwing 2 or more
Throwing a 7
Throwing an even
number
It is impossible that Ethan will take a red

sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
It is impossible that Ethan will take a red

sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
It is unlikely that Ethan will take a red

sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
It is unlikely that Ethan will take a red

sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
It is even chance that Ethan will take a

red sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
It is even chance that Ethan will take a

red sweet from…
A Bag 4
B Bag 2
C Bag 5
D Bag 1
What is the probability of choosing a red

counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of choosing a red

counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of choosing a

yellow counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of choosing a

yellow counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of not choosing a

green counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of not choosing a

green counter from this bag?
D
What is the probability of this spinner

landing on pink?
D

landing on pink?
D

landing on yellow?
D

landing on yellow?
D

landing on blue?
D

landing on blue?
D

NOT landing on pink?
D

NOT landing on pink?
D
Lesson Mutually Exclusive Events

Objectives:
Developing Mutually exclusive means “can’t happen at the same

students will be time”.
able to use words
to describe the
probability of Examples
events.
• Turning left or turning right.
Secure students • Going to Liverpool at 9am tomorrow, or going to
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
Manchester at 9am tomorrow.
and percentages to (You cannot turn left and right at the same time, or be in
describe the two places at once!)
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson Mutually Exclusive Events

Objectives:
Developing Mutually exclusive means “can’t happen at the same

students will be time”.
able to use words
to describe the
probability of Non-Examples
events.
• Turning left and scratching your head can happen at
Secure students the same time.
will be able to use • Kings and Hearts, because you can have a King of
fractions, decimals
and percentages to Hearts.
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Think – Pair – Share
Are the following pairs of statements mutually exclusive?
1) Winning a football match AND losing the same football match
2) Getting the bus AND missing the same bus
3) Watching a comedy DVD AND watching a romance DVD
4) Rolling a 2 on a dice AND rolling a number less than 3
5) Choosing a spade AND choosing a King

Lesson Exhaustive Events

Objectives:
Developing The probabilities of all possible outcomes add up to 1.

students will be
able to use words
to describe the Example
probability of
events.
Secure students
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to Total:
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson Example
Objectives: A box contains 3 bags of salt and vinegar crisps, 4 bags of
Developing cheese and onion crisps and 2 bags of beef crisps. One of
students will be these bags of crisps is taken from the box at random.
able to use words
to describe the What is the probability they are beef?
probability of
events. Flavour of Salt & Cheese &
Beef
crisp Vinegar onion
Secure students
will be able to use Probability
fractions, decimals
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
1− ( 3 4 2
+ ¿
9 9 9 )
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson Example
Objectives: In a survey during walk to school week, all the pupils at
Developing Winsford Academy either cycle, walk, come by bus or still
students will be come in a car. The probabilities they travel each way are
able to use words
to describe the below. What’s the probability they come by bus?
probability of
events. Method of
Cycle Walk Bus Car
Travel
Secure students
will be able to use Probability 0.36 0.52 0.06
fractions, decimals
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
(bus) ¿ 0.06
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Lesson
Objectives:
Developing
students will be
able to use words How confident do you feel with this topic?
to describe the
probability of
events.
Write red, amber or green in your book!
Secure students
will be able to use
fractions, decimals Complete the corresponding activity 
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Answers
Question 1
a) e)
b) f)
c) g)
d) h)
Question 2
a) b) c)
Question 3
a) b)
c)i.  ii. 
iii.  iv. 
Lesson Grand National Game

Objectives:
Developing Which horse is most likely to win? Why?

students will be
able to use words
to describe the Are there any horses that definitely won’t win? How do
probability of you know?
events.
Secure students Play with the person next to you to test your hypothesis!
will be able to use
fractions, decimals
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Sample Space Diagrams
Draw a sample space diagram to show all the possible outcomes when two dice are
thrown and their scores added together.
+¿ Calculate the probability of scoring the

following:
2 3 4 5 6 7 𝟔
𝟎 𝟑𝟔
3 4 5 6 7 8 𝟓
𝟏
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
4 5 6 7 8 9
𝟐 𝟒
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
5 6 7 8 9 10
𝟑 𝟑
6 7 8 9 10 11 𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝟒 𝟐
7 8 9 10 11 12
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
𝟓 𝟏
𝟑𝟔 𝟑𝟔
Lesson
Objectives:
Developing
students will be
able to use words How confident do you feel with this topic?
to describe the
probability of
events.
Write red, amber or green in your book!
Secure students
will be able to use
fractions, decimals Complete the corresponding activity 
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events.
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords
Answers
Question 1
a) b) c) d)
Question 2
a) b) c) d) e)
Question 3
a) b) c) d)
Question 4
a) b) c) d) e)
Lesson
Objectives:
Developing 1 question about

students will be
able to use words
today’s topic
to describe the
probability of
events.
2 things you
Secure students
will be able to use learnt today
fractions, decimals
and percentages to
describe the
probability of
events. 3 things you knew already
Excelling students
will be able to use
a sample space
diagram to find a
probability.
Keywords

Probability

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Probability

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Probability Tuesday 28 November 2023

Developing How many words can you find relating to probability?

Lesson Impossible Likely Could

Developing Poor Even

likely unlikely certain impossible even chance

100% chance no chance 75% chance 50% chance 25% chance

Think – Pair – Share

Use the words to describe the probabilities of the events below:

1. You will celebrate your 10th birthday tomorrow. Impossible?

Lesson Sometimes words aren’t precise enough.

Developing We’re mathematicians! How can we be more accurate

Secure students The probability for an event which is IMPOSSIBLE is 0.

Lesson To calculate the probability, when all possible outcomes

Developing A box contains 3 bags of salt and vinegar crisps, 4 bags of

Task – Copy and complete

Throwing less than 5

Throwing less than 5

It is impossible that Ethan will take a red

It is impossible that Ethan will take a red

It is unlikely that Ethan will take a red

It is unlikely that Ethan will take a red

It is even chance that Ethan will take a

It is even chance that Ethan will take a

What is the probability of choosing a red

What is the probability of choosing a red

What is the probability of choosing a

What is the probability of choosing a

What is the probability of not choosing a

What is the probability of not choosing a

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

What is the probability of this spinner

Lesson Mutually Exclusive Events

Developing Mutually exclusive means “can’t happen at the same

Lesson Mutually Exclusive Events

Developing Mutually exclusive means “can’t happen at the same

Think – Pair – Share

Are the following pairs of statements mutually exclusive?

1) Winning a football match AND losing the same football match

2) Getting the bus AND missing the same bus

3) Watching a comedy DVD AND watching a romance DVD

4) Rolling a 2 on a dice AND rolling a number less than 3

5) Choosing a spade AND choosing a King

Lesson Exhaustive Events

Developing The probabilities of all possible outcomes add up to 1.

Lesson Grand National Game

Developing Which horse is most likely to win? Why?

Sample Space Diagrams

+¿ Calculate the probability of scoring the

Developing 1 question about

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