Probability

Prepared by : Ms. Jozel A. Galler

Review:

Luck and Draw

(ABC Summaries)
R
M
S
Motivation

Have you watched a news that

there are 1 or 2 people won
millions of pesos in a lottery?
Experiment 1

:Tossing a coin once

Experiment 2

: Rolling a
die
Probability

🞆Is a branch of mathematics that

provides quantitative description of the
likely occurrence of the specific event.
 History

🞆For most of human history, probability, the

formal study of the laws of chance, has been
used for only one thing: gambling
 History (cont.)

🞆Nobody knows exactly when gambling

began; goes back at least as far as ancient
Egypt where 4-sided “astragali” (made
from animal heelbones) were used
 History (cont.)

🞆The Roman emperor Claudius (10BC-54AD) wrote

the first known treatise on gambling.
🞆The book “How to Win at Gambling” was lost.
Rule 1: Let Caesar
win IV
out of V times
 Terminologies in Probability

🞆Experiment: act or process that leads to a single

outcome that cannot be predicted with certainty.
1. Toss a coin
2. Draw 1 card from a standard deck of cards
3. Arrival time of flight from Atlanta to RDU
🞆Outcome- is any possible result of
an experiment.
Sample space: all possible outcomes of an
experiment. Denoted by S.
1. Toss a coin once
S = {H, T}
2. Toss a die once; count dots on
upper face
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event: any subset of the sample
space
typically denoted A, B, C, etc.
1. Toss a coin once

A = {H}, B =
{T}
 2. Toss a die once; count dots on
upper face

A=even # of dots on upper face={2, 4, 6}

B=3 or fewer dots on upper face={1, 2, 3}
Simple event: event with only 1
outcome
Null event: the empty set Φ
Certain event: S
Generalization:

🞆What are the different

terminologies in probability?
Application/Evaluation

Group Activity (per Row) Application of terminologies

🞆 Site any materials inside the classroom and perform one
experiment, create your own experiment and discuss the
following:
1. What is your Experiment?
2. What is/are your sample space?
3. How many possible outcomes do you have?
4. Show one event?
Closure: ( Swap Talk)

Completing the sentence:

1. Today I learned about
_________________________________.
2. We need to know about probability
because__________________________.
DAY 2 :

Fundamental Principles of
Counting
Review:

Luck and draw

( ABC Summaries)
P
E
O
S
E
SE
NE
CE
MOTIVATION:

Presentation of activity
Fundamental Principles of Counting

Tossing two coins at the same time.

1. How many outcomes do we have?
2. What are the sample space.
Tossing a coin and rolling
a die at the same time.
1. How many outcomes do we have?
2. What are the sample space.
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
For a college interview, Robert has to
choose what to wear from the following: 4
slacks, 3 shirts, 2 shoes and 5 ties. How
many possible outfits does he have to
choose from?
1. How many outcomes do we have?
2. What are the sample space.
🞆Let’s Watch :
🞆Tree Diagram
Fundamental Principles of Counting

Tossing two coins at the same time.

1. How many outcomes do we have?
2. What are the sample space.
Tossing a coin and rolling
a die at the same time.
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
Lets start with a simple example.

A student is to roll a die and flip a coin.

How many possible outcomes will there be?
1H 2H 3H 4H 5H 6H
1T 2T 3T 4T 5T 6T 6*2 = 12 outcomes

12 outcomes
 Fundamental Counting
Principle
For a college interview, Robert has to
choose what to wear from the following: 4
slacks, 3 shirts, 2 shoes and 5 ties. How
many possible outfits does he have to
choose from?
4*3*2*5 = 120 outfits
1. How many outcomes do we have?
2. What are the sample space.
SWAP TALK
Fundamental Principles of Counting

No. of outcomes of the 1st experiment * No.

of outcomes of the 2nd experiment * No. of
outcomes of the 3rd experiment.
S1*S2*S3
Generalization:

How do we use fundamental

principles of counting?
Application? Evaluation

Make an experiment of two different

materials at the same time. Show the
number of outcomes using Tree Diagram
and verify using FPC formula.
 Closure:
Completing the sentence:
1.Today I learned
about_______________________________________.
2.We need to study FPC
because___________________________________.
Day 3

Presentation of Activity and

Quiz
Luck and Draw (ABC Summaries)

FPC
E
TD
F
Preparation of Activity (10mins)
Application? Evaluation

Make an experiment of two different

materials at the same time. Show the
number of outcomes using Tree Diagram
and verify using FPC formula.
Generalization:

What must be considered in

finding the number of
outcomes?
Quiz (20 mins)

HONESTY and
ACCURACY
Closure:

Completing the sentence:

1. Today I learned
about__________________.
2. I will apply FPC in real life by
__________________________.