Foreign Policy of Pakistan - In the Historical Context

MODULE 6
(LECTURE –VI)
1948 -2017 : THE KASHMIR ISSUE: CURRENT SITUATION & FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS
02 OCTOBER, 2017
DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY,
QUAID -I-AZAM (QAU)
SHAHID M G KIANI,
AMBASSADOR/VF
 India
(Geo-Political Location)
 Pakistan & India
Geo-Political Location
Kashmir
 The Kashmir Issue: In Brief

 A large part of the India-Pakistan rivalry centers on competing claims over the
Kashmir region

 This relatively small piece of land in the Himalayas has been disputed since 1947,
the year the modern state of Pakistan was created

 Pakistan claims the land because it’s majority Muslim like itself; India claims the
land because Kashmir’s Maharajah once pledged loyalty to India (albeit under
duress).


 India doesn’t want to give the region up for fear of setting a dangerous precedent
for India’s other regions that are agitating for independence

 While both countries claim all of Kashmir, each of them controls only part of it
 Cont……
The Kashmir Issue: In Brief
 Two of the three wars fought by India & Pakistan have been over Kashmir (1947 and
1965)

 It’s bad when a collective population of 1.5 billion goes to war repeatedly over a sliver of
land;

 it would be worse today, since both sides now have nuclear weapons

 More than 47,000 people have been killed in Kashmir flare-ups to date—& there are
human rights groups who argue the real figure is twice that amount

 Back ground to current Situation: A prominent Kashmiri militant was killed by Indian
forces in July, touching off mass protests and a wave of violence that left nearly 90 people
dead
 However: Indian officials seem fixated on Pakistan for the moment
 The Danger

 Kashmir, at present, is not being treated as a priority by politicians or policy makers

 This is a grave mistake

 The ground realities which have continued to blight the lives of millions in the region for
decades have not been resolved

 Not only do they demand resolution - but leave the region fragile/unstable - a danger
exacerbated by nuclear capabilities of India/Pakistan

 Domestic narratives within India /Pakistan which lead to heightened hostility have been
exacerbated by events in the last few years, especially in India
 Flash Points

 Although Kashmir has remained de facto divided along line of control - fact that its de
jure position has not been resolved - has meant that dispute has continued to fester -
poisoning relations between India & Pakistan

 Their enmity erupting again into war in 1965 & 1999 (Kargil) - with another war fought in
1971 over secession of Pakistan's eastern wing, now Bangladesh
The Indo-Pak war 1965 & Tashkent Agreement: Role of External Powers
 Relationship between cold war international politics & 1965 Indo-Pak War is significant in
two ways

 First, international politics of cold war affected nature of conflict & agreement that
followed it

 In fact - attitude of foreign powers influenced conflict & changing scenes in the conflict
influenced their approach towards parties involved

 It would not be wrong to say that India was fighting war at two fronts- one at the
battlefield & Other at diplomatic front & both were closely interlinked

 Second - 1965 war engaged US & Soviet Union in ways that determined the course for
subsequent super power involvement in region
 Post 1965: Tashkent Agreement
 1965 War noticed changes in attitude of powers

 U S maintained neutrality despite its alliances with Pakistan & worked with the then
Soviet Union to bring a ceasefire

 Soviet Union offered its good offices for peaceful settlement between the two warring
states

 Prime Ministers of India & President of Pakistan met at Tashkent from January 4-10,
1966 & Both sides agreed to withdraw forces to August 5 positions

 Other items included that both sides would exert all efforts to create good neighbourly
relations in accordance with UN charter and reaffirmation not to have recourse to force &
to settle their disputes through peaceful means

 UN charter does not prevent a state to use force in self-defence

 Tashkent Agreement did not change Pak attitude towards Kashmir

 Kargil Conflict: An Wanted Crisis
 The Kargil conflict which occurred between May/July 1999 involved limited
combat between Pakistani & Indian military - resulted in approximately 1,300
battle deaths

 Kargil operation on part of Pakistan shows a lack of coordination at national

political level

 Due to negative result of the Kargil Pakistani military has been used as a
scapegoat by US

 In the Kargil conflict between India & Pakistan- US role was important as it put
pressure on Pakistan to withdraw
 Cont….
Kargil Conflict: An Wanted Crisis
 Since the testing of nuclear devices by India & Pakistan in May 1998

 World appeared sensitive towards developments in South Asia

 Kargil conflict was first limited military operation between Pakistan & India after
nuclearisation in South Asia

 Historically after partition of India, Kargil occupied strategic position & has
therefore been cause of intrusion by Pakistan

 It had become clear that friendly sentiments expressed by Prime Ministers of

Pakistan & India during Lahore Summit had received a setback due to
developments in Kargil
 The 2016–17: Unrest in Kashmir
 The 2016–17 unrest in Kashmir, also known as the Burhan aftermath, refers to series of violent protests in the
Kashmir Valley (IOK)

 It started with killing of Burhan Wani - commander of Kashmir-based Islamic militant organisation by Indian
security forces in July 2016

 After his killing - anti-Indian protests started in IOK

 Protesters defied curfew with attacks on security forces & public properties

 Indian Security Forces continue to use pellet guns etc resulting in the deaths of more than 90 civilians - with over
15,000 civilians injured / blinded

 Some leading columnists including have termed unrest as Kashmir’s Intifada

 Situation in Kashmir continues to be tense - particularly in its southern areas

 India is pushing Kashmiris to wall; they are using these tactics for the upcoming 2019 elections.
 They are more inspired by the Israeli way... The Modi government doesn’t care about its image or the international
community
 Kashmir Issue: Way Forward

India should respond positively to any such Pakistani gesture & engage in talks
with its Kashmiris

 This is the first Indian government to refuse dialogue with its Kashmiri
population.

 If the Kashmiris see enough hope in such an opening to quieten the unrest — even
if real concessions are remote — that will do much to reduce tensions between the
two states

 With the heat taken out of the Kashmir situation - other issues could be resolved
and maybe a live-and-let-live attitude could replace violence and threats