Scenario Thinking

Generic Workshop Template

Lawrie Phipps
Before the day
 Assigndelegates to a group and give
them pre reading. Ask them to add detail,
such as headlines that illustrate the
scenario
Introduce the day - 20 minutes

 What is the purpose of the day (why are

we doing the scenario thinking/planning)
 Explain scenario thinking/planning
Points to get across

 Future-gazing and making accurate predictions is difficult.

 Most are wrong.
 Scenario planning, by using trend analysis as its base, keeps
focus in the prediction period to somewhere around the 10-year
mark, this helps build tests of plausibility into the process.
 The 10 year period is far enough in the future to allow creative
thought not inhibited by what we know.
 Emphasize that the scenarios are not real, nor are they
expected to come true. They are designed to be 'extreme' to aid
creativity.
The Scenario Process

• Scope the issue (why are we doing it)

• Trend analysis
• Build Scenarios
 For workshops in a one day format the previous are already
done
• Further build scenarios (for example what would education
look like)
• Generate options
• Test Options
• Action Plan
Get into groups
 Inthe groupwork:
 Record everything on flip charts
 Make notes
 Record with sound and video if possible
3. Further enhancement (in groups) 120 minutes

 In the education context (for which this was designed)

 Brainstorm the context (e.g what would education look
like? 30 minutes
 Ask the delegates to build profiles for ‘actors’ 15 minutes
per profile (try splitting group in two, do two profiles per
group) 30 minutes then feedback to each other on the
profile (worth recording)
 Ask them:
 Brainstorm
 Opportunities 10 minutes
 Challenges 10 minutes
 Changes from where we are now 10 minutes
Generate Options 45 minutes
 Brainstorming against the profiles - what
(technology/process) would be an enabler in this
scenario

 Over Lunch
 Bring delegates together in one room along with the
enabler flipcharts
 Give everyone the chance to look at each one
 Give everyone the chance to vote for what looks the
most interesting options
Building up the options
 Ingroups (either the same ones or divide
them by 'role' eg. lecturer, student as per
the profiles, or processes you wish to
examine. It is preferable to have at least
one person from each scenario.
 Spend time building 5 to 8 'favourite'
options
Testing the options
 Bring the flipcharts back to plenary.
 get all delegates to identify if they would
work in their scenario (ticks or post-its etc)