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Evolution What Are the Odds

# Evolution What Are the Odds

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11/09/2012

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Evolution: What Are theOdds?
(Most of the information for this page was taken from Dr. Bert Thompson's
The ScientificCase for Creation
, Apologetics Press Inc., 1999)
What Were the Odds For Evolution?
Borel's law of probability states that if the odds of an event happening are worse than 1 in1*10^50, then that event will NEVER HAPPEN.Dr. Harold Morowitz, former professor of biophysics at Yale University, estimated thatthe probability of the chance formation of the smallest, simplest form of living organismknown is 1 out of 10^340,000,000. One out of ten to the 340 millionth power isunimaginable odds. This large figure is a "1" followed by 340,000,000 zeroes. As you cansee, Morowitz' odds against even the simplest life evolving were infinitely more than1*10^50, making them impossible.The very popular evolutionist, Dr. Carl Sagan of Cornell University, figured even steeper odds against the simplest life beginning naturally on a planet such as earth. According toSagan, the probability would be about 1 out of 10^2,000,000,000. Try to imagine ten tothe 2 billionth power. Pretty astounding odds. Interestingly, these impossible odds againstevolution came from one of the most prominent evolutionists of our time.According to evolutionists, we just got lucky. However, the odds against this luck have been shown above. Borel's law of probability should have been enough to refuteevolution completely, but I know that the evolutionary "intellectuals" need moreconvincing data.
How Many Events Have Ever Occurred?
Here is a good mental workout: Let us attempt to figure the total amount of things thathave taken place in the universe. Even evolutionists will agree that only a certain amountof events have taken place in this universe. If this total number of possible events is even barely close to the number of chances needed for the first step in evolution to take place,then we will agree that life did evolve from non-life. Here we go.
How Big Is the Universe?

We are attempting to determine how many events have ever taken place in the universe.To do so, we must first determine the size of the universe so that we can pack it withevent-accomplishing particles.So how big is the universe? Scientists have estimated it to be about 5,000,000,000 lightyears across. To give the evolutionists a little help, let's assume that it is a million timeswider, taller, and deeper. The new diameter would be 5*10^15, or 5 quatrillion lightyears. This will make our experimental universe 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 bigger thanthe real universe. Many events can occur in such a big place.
5,000,000,000,000,000 light years = 30 octillion miles, or
3*10^28 miles indiameter.

How Small Is a Proton?
Now that we have thought big, lets think small. The effective diameter of a proton isabout 2.4*10^-15 meters, or 2.4 femtometers. To help understand this tiny size, one inchis equal to about 10 trillion protons lined side to side.Remember, we are trying to figure how many events could ever happen. We need toknow how many particles exist so they could do stuff through the ages. That's what we'recalculating.We should use particles a good bit smaller than protons, so that the evolutionists willhave enough particles to do lots and lots of events. By volume, the real universe contains billions and billions of times more space than particles. Since we are attempting todetermine how many events have ever occurred in the universe, let us give theevolutionists the benefit of the doubt by completely filling our experimental universewith particles. This will give them billions of times more events to produce life.Protons are way too big. We are figuring the total amount of events that have ever taken place, and more particles can do more events. We should give the evolutionists lots andlots of particles so that life has a better chance of evolving. Therefore, we will be using particles having a diameter 1 trillion times smaller than protons. This will allow us to pack our experimental universe with (1 trillion)^3, or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, more particles than would be possible with "large" protons.
How Many Particles Could Fit In Our Universe?
First, let us determine how many of our extra-small particles could be lined across thediameter of our extra-large universe.

3*10^28 miles = 5*10^31 meters = 1.2*10^47 proton diameters =
1.2*10^59extra-small particle diameters.
Therefore, 1.2*10^59 of the "smaller than possible" particles lined side to side wouldstretch across the "larger than possible" universe. This should provide plenty of particlesto interact and make life from non-life.
So, How Many Particles?
Evolutionists believe that the Big Bang blew everything from a central point in the beginning. Therefore, this universe should be spherical. We will now figure the volume of our universe and pack it with particles.
Universe Diameter = 3*10^28 miles = 1.2*10^59 "small-particle" diameters
Universe Volume = (4/3)*(PI)*[(Diameter)^3]*(1/8)
Universe Volume = (4/3)*(PI)*[(1.2*10^59 "small-particle diameters)^3]*(1/8)
Universe Volume =
8*10^177 particles.
As mentioned before, our real universe is full of empty space, but this theoreticaluniverse is packed full of "smaller than possible" particles. This increase in the number of  particles has helped the terrible odds against evolution. The total amount of particles possible is 8*10^177. Remember that we generously allowed for a universe 1 milliontimes wider than reality, and we used particles 1 trillion times smaller than protons.
How Quickly Could Each Particle Make Life?
Okay, now we have the number of particles available for life-making. How much caneach particle do in a second? Since we don't know, let's be generous to our evolutionaryfriends. Let's assume that each of the 8*10^177 particles can participate in one trilliontrillion trillion events at one time. This factor would be 1*10^36 events per second.
Activity of each particle =
1*10^36 events per second.

How Much Time To Produce Life?
Now that we know the amount of particles and the work-rate of each, let's determine theamount of time that they have to perform their life-producing tasks. I think that thecurrent estimated life expectancy of the universe is about 30 billion years. This could be alittle small or large; I'm not sure (I believe that the universe is only a couple of thousandyears old). Anyhow, to give the evolutionists a little more time than they really have, let's